If you ever used to watch Ben Cowen, he used to talk about the "Bitcoin bull market support band", which at the time, was the 20 week moving average. As you can see, since this cycle has been slower and the gains far less exaggerated on a percentage basis, it looks like it's now the 50 week EMA, or exponential moving average if you're new to all this. If we trade under this for a while, then I'll believe the guys saying "the bear market has begun." I still won't give a rat's ass because I DCA and have no plans of stopping. In fact, I like to double my DCA once BTC drops by 40% or more. I've been in BTC since 2017, and the one thing I know for sure about it, is that it always likes to surprise. It's going to keep doing things for the first time because it's still a relatively young asset. In other words, you can always expect the unexpected. I love BTC because it's helped me achieve most of my financial goals, but only because I've kept a long term perspective, and I believe that this asset will trade for over a million dollars in my lifetime. I can't predict when that will happen, but I know if I just keep stacking a little every day, I'll be better positioned for when it does than if I try to trade it and end up losing sats. I figured I'd share my thoughts since a lot of the posts I've seen on this sub have been doom posts about small drops in the price, and the massive liquidation event last week that wiped out all the leveraged guys. Be well my fellow humans and keep the faith, your patience will be rewarded eventually.
Friday, October 17, 2025
Introducing Hipshot - your automated event trader
The world used to be a bit orderly. Markets were open from 9:30am to 4pm, news broke through official channels or via journalism with structured approaches and rules for disclosure. Institutional traders got privileged access to information in tons of ways and inefficiencies got beaten out of the market. Average people mostly traded through their stockbrokers while adventurous folks used E*Trade for low fees and got destroyed on execution.
That world is gone.
Crypto markets are trading 24/7, news breaks on Twitter from reliable, semi-reliable, and otherwise unreliable sources whenever they feel like it. Everyday folks trade options on Robinhood or memecoins or perpetual futures 40x+ leverage.
This new market is chaotic and inefficient. Is a VP at JP Morgan up reading Twitter at 6pm on Tuesday much less 2am on a Saturday? Hell no.
In 2025 alone we've had the following events that moved Bitcoin by more than 1% over a 90 minute period (note these are just off the top of my head - there are definitely more).
- Trump announces “Now a good time to buy”
- Trump announces 90 day pause on tariffs
- Israel attacks Iran
- Iran threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. bombs Fordow
- Iran retaliates by bombing UAE base
- Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
- Trump re-threatens China with tariffs
Hipshot lets anyone (and no account needed to poke around) define an event, follow accounts on Twitter, and set up a trade (for now, crypto only) on leverage. The app tests all posts by the followed accounts against the criteria you set for your event, and fires your pre-set trade when it sees a match. It's not sentiment analysis or phrase matching, it's using latest LLMs to do a full evaluation each time.
And you don't just have to trade major world events that move Bitcoin. Hipshot lets you set up a trade against any asset tradeable on Hyperliquid, which is hundreds of crypto assets. We plan to expand the tradeable universe to e.g., equities as soon as we can.
Your trades are private to you, but Hipshots are public entities. So you can share the Hipshot itself and others can join the trade. With a referral code you'll earn a share of their fees (when we turn them on). You can browse other Hipshots to join in or create your own.
Excited to see what people do with this. Please note that we're in Beta, the app surface is large, and we're a small team (just me and a friend). So please send any and all product feedback you have, and only deposit what you can afford to lose. Note that there is no need to create an account or deposit if you just want to explore or join the Discord.
Here's the Hipshot I'm targeting for Trump walking back his China tariffs.
Come join!