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Monday, February 23, 2026
Bitcoin slips as IBM selloff lifts tech-crypto correlation
https://coincu.com/news/bitcoin-slips-as-ibm-selloff-lifts-tech-crypto-correlation/
The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (02/23/2026)
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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (02/23/2026)
Top Story
Trump Imposes 15% Global Tariff After Supreme Court Strikes Down Previous Levies
President Trump raised global tariffs to 15% after the Supreme Court invalidated his earlier trade measures, triggering market selloffs with the Dow falling over 500 points and S&P 500 down 2.1%. The EU froze its US trade deal ratification amid the uncertainty, while Trump warned countries against challenging the ruling would face even higher duties.
Analyst Ratings
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Citigroup Maintains Bullish Market Outlook While Advancing Coverage and Banamex Divestiture
Citigroup maintained its positive 2026 stock market forecast, projecting S&P 500 earnings of $320, above market consensus. Analyst Scott Chronert cited strong fourth-quarter earnings beats, accelerating large-cap sales growth, and heavy AI spending as key drivers supporting the bullish stance. The firm acknowledged ongoing risks from tariff uncertainty and margin pressure on small and mid-cap companies.
In equity research activity, Citi executed numerous rating actions across sectors. The firm initiated coverage on several companies including Ethos, PicPay, and York Space Systems with Buy ratings, while launching coverage on Yuanbao with a Neutral rating. Notable upgrades included Norsk Hydro moving from Neutral to Buy.
The firm adjusted price targets across its coverage universe, raising targets on companies including Deere, Republic Services, Consolidated Edison, and TFI International, while lowering targets on Array Digital and Workiva. Citi also named two semiconductor stocks as new Top Picks.
On the corporate front, Citigroup neared completion of a significant divestiture, signing a deal to sell an additional 24 percent stake in its Mexican retail bank Banamex to a group of investors including Blackstone and family offices. This transaction advances Citi's strategic exit from the retail banking operation.
A former Citi executive made headlines projecting that AI-powered robots could outnumber human workers within several decades, highlighting long-term technological transformation themes.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley Shifts Strategy Toward AI-Resistant Assets While Adjusting Tech Valuations Amid $700B Industry Spending Surge
Morgan Stanley Investment Management is actively repositioning portfolios away from AI-exposed sectors, seeking assets insulated from the artificial intelligence boom as Big Tech companies deploy nearly $700 billion into AI infrastructure this year. The firm’s head of fixed-income research, Andrew Sheets, discussed the broader market implications of this massive capital deployment and potential upheaval across traditional sectors.
The bank issued mixed signals on technology stocks, cutting Salesforce’s price target from $398 to $287 on valuation concerns and lowering Workday’s target from $280 to $200, while reducing IonQ’s outlook from $58 to $35. However, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on Nvidia ahead of earnings and raised targets on AI-adjacent hardware plays including Corning (to $127), Coherent (to $250), and Lumentum (to $520). In currency markets, Morgan Stanley strategists recommended buying the Swiss franc as a standout safe haven, projecting potential gains of up to 17% against the dollar amid US policy uncertainty.
The firm downgraded French real estate company Icade to Equal Weight citing lack of catalysts, while raising Deere’s target from $560 to $730 on improved agricultural equipment outlook. Morgan Stanley also flagged JFrog’s recent selloff as “materially overdone,” seeing 85% upside potential, and maintained positive stances on biotechnology names including PTC Therapeutics. The firm’s advisor recruiting costs continued mounting as it expands its wealth management operations.
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Wells Fargo Upgrades Google on AI Infrastructure Lead, Forecasts Doubling of Hyperscaler Compute Capacity
Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to Overweight from Equal Weight, raising its price target to $387 from $354, citing Google’s expanding AI compute capacity as a decisive competitive advantage. Analyst Ken Gawrelski projects
Alphabet’s compute power will surge to 35 gigawatts by 2028 from 15 gigawatts currently, positioning the company ahead in AI scale alongside deep customer data advantages. The firm forecasts total hyperscaler compute capacity will double to 98 gigawatts by 2027, driven by surging AI demand. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft currently account for 80% of capacity and are expected to maintain a 75% share through the forecast period.
Wells Fargo also maintained its Overweight rating on Meta Platforms, raising the price target to $856 from $849, while slightly lowering Amazon’s target to $304 from $305 despite maintaining a 45% upside projection. The firm initiated coverage on York Space Systems with an Overweight rating, seeing 35% upside potential.
Additional rating actions included price target increases for Deere, EQT Corporation, and Expand Energy, while Arcellx was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Company News
Novo Nordisk A/s (NVO)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -16.45%
5D Change: -20.02%
News Volume: 152
Unusual Volume Factor: 5x
Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge 15% as Next-Generation Obesity Drug Falls Short of Eli Lilly Rival in Clinical Trial
Novo Nordisk shares tumbled more than 15% on February 23, erasing all gains accumulated since the launch of its blockbuster drug Wegovy, after the company announced disappointing results from its REDEFINE 4 Phase III trial. The Danish drugmaker’s next-generation obesity treatment CagriSema failed to meet its primary endpoint of demonstrating non-inferiority to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (marketed as Zepbound). In the 84-week trial, CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss compared to 25.5% for Eli Lilly’s competing drug.
The setback represents a significant blow in the intensifying competition for dominance in the lucrative obesity treatment market, where both pharmaceutical giants have been racing to develop more effective therapies. The market reaction was swift and severe. Novo Nordisk’s stock fell to a four-year low, with the selloff wiping approximately $20 billion from its market capitalization and dragging down Denmark’s broader equity market. The decline eliminated roughly $475 billion in gains the company had accumulated during the Wegovy era. Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold following the announcement.
Conversely, Eli Lilly shares rose 3.4%, adding approximately $34 billion in market value as investors recognized the competitive advantage the trial results provide. The outcome also lifted shares of other obesity drug developers, including Viking Therapeutics, as market participants reassessed the competitive landscape. Analysts characterized the results as a worst-case scenario for Novo Nordisk, with some investors now calling for the company to pivot its strategy beyond diabetes and obesity drugs.
The disappointing data may shift management focus toward merger and acquisition opportunities as the company seeks to diversify its pipeline and maintain its position in the rapidly evolving metabolic disease treatment market. Despite the setback, some analysts suggested the stock’s valuation at 11 times earnings could present a long-term buying opportunity for investors willing to look past the near-term competitive challenges.
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 0.93%
5D Change: 4.8%
News Volume: 173
Unusual Volume Factor: 2x
Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage as Analysts Predict Strong Beat Amid Market Volatility
Nvidia is set to report fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday, with Wall Street analysts expressing strong confidence ahead of the results despite broader market turbulence from Trump’s tariff policies. Multiple firms have reaffirmed bullish ratings, with price targets ranging from $250 to $400, implying substantial upside from current levels near $190-193. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh projects Q4 revenue of $69 billion, driven by rising B300/GB300 shipments and H200 sales to China.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s C.J. Muse set a $400 price target, forecasting calendar year 2026 earnings per share of $9 versus consensus of $7.75, and 2027 EPS exceeding $12 compared to consensus of $9.53. Gene Munster predicted Nvidia’s growth will hit 40% in 2027, calling Wall Street’s 28% estimate “too conservative.” JPMorgan highlighted potential upside from China exports, noting that every 100,000 H200 GPUs shipped to China could generate approximately $3 billion in incremental revenue. Morgan Stanley, UBS, and GF Securities also maintained positive outlooks, with GF Securities raising its price target to $295 ahead of the company’s GTC conference.
The earnings report comes during a volatile week for markets, with the VIX climbing above 20 and stock futures dropping on tariff concerns. However, Nvidia shares rose Monday, defying broader chip sector weakness, partly supported by positive news from memory chip supplier SK Hynix. Analysts note that while strong results are widely expected, the key question is whether positive numbers will still drive significant stock movement given the high bar already set. Some observers suggest Nvidia’s earnings reports no longer carry the same market-moving force they once did.
The company also announced plans to launch a laptop chip in the first half of this year and joined cybersecurity initiatives to protect critical infrastructure. Four billionaire investors reportedly sold Nvidia shares ahead of earnings, though the broader analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish on AI demand fundamentals and the company’s competitive positioning in accelerated computing.
Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -2.35%
5D Change: 3.26%
News Volume: 131
Unusual Volume Factor: 1x
Amazon Announces $12 Billion Louisiana Data Center Investment as Anthropic Faces Pentagon Scrutiny and Chinese Data Theft Allegations
Amazon disclosed plans to invest $12 billion in Louisiana data centers to support expanding cloud computing and AI services, marking a significant infrastructure commitment despite shares slipping on the announcement. Wells Fargo maintained its bullish stance on Amazon with a $304 price target, projecting 45% upside, while forecasting hyperscaler compute capacity to double to 98GW by 2027, with Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft controlling approximately 75% of the market.
In regulatory developments, former Amazon executive Doug Gurr was named permanent chair of the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority, the country’s antitrust regulator. Separately, Bath & Body Works launched an authorized store on Amazon’s US platform. Amazon-backed Anthropic dominated headlines as the AI company faced mounting challenges on multiple fronts. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth summoned Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei to the Pentagon for urgent discussions regarding military use of Claude AI, the only model cleared for classified defense systems.
The meeting comes amid tensions over the company’s restrictions on defense applications. Anthropic accused three Chinese AI companies—DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax—of creating over 24,000 fake accounts to extract data from Claude through more than 16 million queries, allegedly to train competing AI systems. The company characterized this as illicit data harvesting at massive scale. The launch of Anthropic’s Claude Code Security tool triggered significant market disruption. IBM shares plunged 13%, marking its worst single-day decline since 2000, after Anthropic highlighted Claude’s capabilities in modernizing COBOL, a legacy programming language central to IBM’s consulting business. Cybersecurity stocks including CrowdStrike and Datadog extended losses for a second consecutive day on concerns about AI-driven disruption, though Wedbush analysts characterized the selloff as an overreaction.
A senior Anthropic engineer warned of major job market shifts arriving soon, describing the transition as potentially painful. Meanwhile, a Super PAC backed by Anthropic launched an advertising campaign supporting AI regulation. Research from Anthropic revealed users iterate more with AI coding tools but question outputs less frequently, raising concerns about over-reliance on AI-generated code.
Stock Markets Events
European Markets Close Mixed as DAX Falls Over 1%
European indexes finished Monday's session with mixed results. Germany's DAX led declines, dropping 1.03%, while France's CAC 40 fell 0.22%. Spain's IBEX 35 bucked the trend, gaining 0.68%. U.S. markets saw notable midday moves in financial and technology stocks including KKR, Blackstone, and CrowdStrike.
Geopolitics Events
France Bars US Ambassador Kushner From Government Meetings After Summons No-Show
France revoked US Ambassador Charles Kushner's access to French government officials following his failure to appear for a summons regarding State Department comments on a far-right activist's killing in Lyon, marking a significant diplomatic breach between the allies.
US-Iran Tensions Escalate as Diplomatic Efforts Continue Amid Domestic Pressure
Iran faces mounting pressure from domestic unrest and Trump administration threats of military strikes, leaving Tehran with limited strategic options. White House advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are traveling to Geneva for continued negotiations despite heightened regional tensions. Meanwhile, prediction markets show Democrats gaining ground toward potential unified control of Congress in 2026 midterms, with full control odds reaching 39% as the House-Senate split scenario narrows to just six percentage points.
Macro Events
Fed's Waller Ties March Rate Decision to February Jobs Data
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said his support for a potential March interest rate cut depends on the February payroll report, due March 6. Calling the decision between cutting or holding rates "close to a coin flip," Waller cited January's surprisingly strong jobs data as a key factor. He indicated that if February employment figures show similar strength, keeping rates steady may be appropriate. Waller emphasized that upcoming labor market data, rather than external factors like Supreme Court rulings, will determine his stance on monetary policy at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Volatility Intensifies as Whale Selling and Tariff Concerns Push Price Below $65K
Bitcoin weakened to $66K amid whale selling and Trump tariff uncertainty, briefly dipping below $65K and pressuring crypto stocks. Traders remain divided on price direction as bearish market structure suggests potential decline to $60K, while Strategy expanded holdings to 717,722 BTC despite nearing $7 billion in unrealized losses.
BitMine Adds $98M in Ethereum as Holdings Reach $8.5-9.6 Billion Despite Price Decline
Tom Lee's BitMine purchased 51,162 ETH worth $98.33 million last week, bringing total holdings to 4.4 million ETH valued between $8.5-9.6 billion. The acquisition occurred as Ethereum hit a two-week low and amid Vitalik Buterin sales, with BitMine citing strengthening fundamentals despite price pressure and mounting losses.
Strategy Acquires 592 Bitcoin for $40 Million in 100th Purchase Announcement
Michael Saylor's Strategy purchased 592 Bitcoin for $39.8 million last week, marking the company's 100th Bitcoin acquisition announcement as it continues its accumulation strategy.
Trump-Backed Crypto Firm Reports Thwarted Attack on USD1 Stablecoin
World Liberty Financial said it defeated a coordinated attack on its USD1 stablecoin, which briefly dipped from its dollar peg. The Trump family-backed digital asset venture characterized the incident as involving short positions and social media pressure.
Healthcare Events
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Soars on FDA Approval While Merck Restructures Ahead of Patent Cliff
Vanda Pharmaceuticals surged 34% in premarket trading after the FDA approved Bysanti tablets for treating bipolar I disorder and schizophrenia. Merck announced the creation of a separate cancer business unit to prepare for the upcoming patent expiration of Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer drug. Arcellx led premarket gainers with a 78% jump following Gilead Sciences' acquisition announcement. The healthcare sector showed mixed performance, while biotech weakened as Novo Nordisk dropped 10% after its CagriSema drug underperformed against Eli Lilly's competing treatment.
OurBond Stock Surges 9.5% on Pharmaceutical Contract
OurBond shares jumped in premarket trading after securing a $250,000 contract with a major pharmaceutical company. Separately, Abbott Laboratories is issuing multi-part corporate bonds to finance its $21 billion acquisition of Exact Sciences.
Merck Restructures to Create Separate Cancer Division Ahead of Keytruda Patent Expiration
Merck is establishing a standalone cancer business unit to prepare for revenue pressure from its blockbuster drug Keytruda's upcoming patent loss, while ADC Therapeutics modifies its royalty agreement with HealthCare Royalty.
Technology Events
Amazon commits $12 billion to Louisiana data center expansion for cloud and AI services
Amazon announced a $12 billion investment to build data centers in Louisiana, responding to growing demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure, though the company's shares declined following the announcement.
Software Sector Faces Valuation Pressure Amid AI Disruption Concerns
Software and cybersecurity stocks are declining as investors reassess valuations against potential AI disruption threats, with concerns extending to credit markets and further downside risk anticipated.
IBM Stock Plunges Up to 14% on Anthropic's COBOL Modernization Tool
IBM shares tumbled Monday after AI startup Anthropic announced its Claude Code tool can modernize COBOL programming language, which primarily runs on IBM computers, making IBM the latest casualty of AI disruption fears.
Corporate Actions Events
PayPal Draws Takeover Interest Following 20% Stock Plunge and CEO Departure
PayPal shares crashed over 20% to $42 on February 3, 2026 after an unexpected CEO change and weakened growth forecast, trading at 7x price-to-free-cash-flow. The stock decline has attracted multiple takeover bids as potential acquirers eye the discounted valuation.
© 2026 Market Flux. All rights reserved.
Your Guide to Prediction Markets in 2026
The term “prediction market” has been making the rounds for a few years now. To be clear, this isn’t a new term nor a new concept. Prediction markets have been around for some time now but for the most part, they’ve occupied more niche spaces that are reserved for data theorists and traders. That’s no longer the case in 2026.
Prediction markets are just about everywhere you turn now so in this article, we’ll look at what these markets actually are, how they function, and where the legal lines are being drawn, at least as far as the US goes for now.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction market operate on a similar basis as the stock exchange, but instead of trading shares of Apple or Tesla, you’re trading the probability of real-world events.
This means that prediction markets don’t use traditional “odds” like a sportsbook would; they use “contracts” that can fluctuate in value based on what the crowd thinks will happen. The price answers the question: How likely is this outcome right now?
Here’s what this contract entails:
- Every contract is eventually worth exactly $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
- If a “Yes” share for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 costs $0.20, the market is essentially saying there is a 20% chance of that happening.
- You can sell your shares at any time before the event occurs to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
As far as which areas you can apply prediction markets to, the answer in 2026 is everywhere. With that said, some areas are are a more natural fit. Here’s a few examples:
- Sports: You predict anything from MVP winners to injury timelines.
- Economics: You trade on whether the Federal Reserve will raise.
- Pop Culture: You can speculate on box office numbers.
- Tech & Crypto: You can bet on a specific software release date.
A Prediction Markets Example
We already told you, every contract amounts to exactly $1.00 if the event happens and $0.00 if it doesn’t. So, let’s take the “SpaceX Landing” Trade as our example.
- If they crash: Your share becomes worth zero, and you lose your stake.
The crucial part here is that you don’t have to wait for the event to end. If news breaks that makes the landing more likely and your $0.30 shares jump to $0.75, you can sell early to lock in a profit.
The Prediction Markets of 2026
While all prediction markets are there to “price the future,” they go about it in two very different ways. Choosing between the two usually comes down to what you value more: regulatory safety or global speed. Below is a detailed explanation of where the actual differences lie, with examples to demonstrate.
1. Centralized Markets
The first of the two are centralized markets, which, for the most part, function like the New York Stock Exchange. There is a middle man between you and the market that manages your money, verifies your ID, and makes sure every “event contract” follows federal laws companies. These “middle men” are companies and this legal entities that decide which markets to open following strict regulatory oversight. They use USD, take bank cards, and verify your identity through AML/KYC programs.
Here’s a few key points about centralized markets to keep in mind:
- Your funds are held in a traditional bank account.
- If there’s a dispute about an outcome, the company (or a designated “referee”) makes the final call based on official data.
- Institutional traders and U.S. residents who want to know their money is protected by the CFTC.
A perfect example of centralized markets would be Kalshi. This is currently the biggest name in the U.S. for “macro” trading. It’s fully regulated and focuses on economic data and congressional outcomes.
2. Decentralized Markets
Unlike centralized prediction markets, the second ground functions without the “middle man”. Decentralized markets are built on blockchains like Polygon or Solana, instead. There is no “company” in charge of your funds; smart contracts hold the money and pay out winners automatically. In other words, you trade peer-to-peer using a crypto wallet (typically USDC).
Just as a comparison, here a few notes on decentralized markets:
- You trade directly from your crypto wallet (usually using USDC). No bank account or ID check is required.
- These use Oracles (like UMA or Chainlink). Oracles are decentralized systems that “vote” on the truth of an event, making it almost impossible for a single person to manipulate the result.
- Decentralized markets are best for global users, privacy-focused traders, and those who want to trade on “breaking news” that hasn’t been approved by regulators yet.
Polymarket would be the best example of decentralized prediction markets in 2026. It handles billions in trades across everything from global politics to celebrity drama.
Centralized vs Decentralized Overview
| Feature | Centralized | Decentralized |
|---|---|---|
| Custody of Funds | Custodial: The platform holds your money in a US bank account. | Non-Custodial: You hold your own money in a crypto wallet (USDC/SOL). |
| Identity (KYC) | Mandatory: Requires SSN, ID, and address verification (AML/KYC). | Minimal/None: Usually just a wallet connection (though US arms require KYC). |
| Onboarding | Easy: Connect a bank account or use a debit card. | Intermediate: Requires crypto-literacy (gas fees, bridge, seed phrases). |
| Regulation | High: Fully regulated by the CFTC as an “Event Derivative.” | Mixed: Operates via “Global” vs “Regulated US” splits. |
| Outcome Resolution | Centralized Referee: The platform staff or a hired judge makes the final call. | Decentralized Oracle: A network of voters (like UMA) “reports” the truth. |
| Market Variety | Curated: Only lists events approved by compliance teams. | Permissionless: Can list almost anything (news, memes, niche crypto). |
| Primary Risk | Platform Risk: The company could freeze accounts or go bankrupt. | Technical Risk: Smart contract bugs or oracle manipulation. |
The Top 5 Prediction Markets of 2026
We’ve mentioned a few prediction markets here and there so far. Now, it’s time to look at some concrete examples, more precisely five that are leading the charge as of February 2026.
| Platform | Best For | Main Currency | 2026 Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | U.S. Macro & Hedging | USD / USDC | Fully CFTC-Regulated |
| Polymarket | Global Volume & Speed | USDC | CFTC-Approved (U.S. Relaunch) |
| ForecastEx | Institutional Finance | USD | Integrated with Interactive Brokers |
| FanDuel Predicts | Sports & Mainstream | USD | State-by-State availability |
| Drift BET | High-Speed Crypto | USDC / SOL | Decentralized (Solana-based) |
1. Kalshi
We’ve already mentioned Kalshi as an example of centralized markets. Following a massive funding round in 2025 that valued the company at $11 billion, Kalshi has become the primary market for serious economic hedging. Unlike other platforms, Kalshi works directly with federal regulators to ensure every “event contract” is treated as a legal financial derivative. It is the go-to for traders looking to hedge against interest rate hikes, inflation prints, and specific Congressional votes.
2. Polymarket
Polymarket is yet another name we’ve been throwing around, As of 2026, it reached $9 billion in valuation. After navigating its U.S. regulatory relaunch in late 2025, it has maintained its lead by being the fastest to list markets on breaking news. Because it runs on the Polygon blockchain, it offers near-instant settlement and a “permissionless” feel that works best for the crypto audience.
3. ForecastEx
ForecastEx is owned by Interactive Brokers and designed for people who want prediction markets to look and act like the stock market. what this means is that it doesn’t deal with news involving celebrity drama; instead, you’ll find deep markets on corporate earnings, housing starts, and GDP growth.
4. FanDuel Predicts
By integrating prediction markets directly into their existing betting app, FanDuel has successfully brought this concept to the casual fan. While more limited in scope, it allows users to trade on season-long “narrative” outcomes (like MVP races or coaching changes) using a familiar interface. However, users should watch the “vig” (fees), which tend to be higher here than on pure-play exchanges.
5. Drift BET
Operating on the Solana blockchain, Drift BET is at the cutting edge of decentralized finance (DeFi). It is designed for high-frequency traders who need to move in and out of positions in milliseconds. It’s the only major platform that allows you to use your prediction market positions as collateral for other crypto trades.
Prediction Market Regulation in the US
Prediction markets are booming right now, that much is true. However, they’re also currently stuck in something referred to as a “dual regulatory reality”, at least as far as the US is concerned. To explain this, we need to get a bit technical.
At the federal level, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has accepted these platforms as regulated financial exchanges (for the most part). This means, that prediction markets are treated as something called “event derivatives”, which is essentially different from gambling.
However, several US states don’t exactly agree on this. Here’s a rundown of what’s happened so far
- At least 20 federal suits have been filed as of early 2026.
- Regulators in Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York have issued cease-and-desist orders or filed lawsuits against Kalshi and other operators, arguing that these contracts are basically unlicensed sports betting.
- Starting this year, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act limits how you can deduct losses on these trades, treating them more like professional gambling for tax purposes.
The Future of Prediction Markets (2026 and Beyond)
So where does this all go from here?
If 2024 and 2025 were about prediction markets coming out of the experimental niche and stepping into their own, 2026 appears to be the year they try to cement themselves as infrastructure. Trading volumes have surged in the previous period, so much so that the largest platforms reached $35–40 billion. This, as well as other indicators has pushed some analysts to already float trillion-dollar projections for the end of the decade.
That said, their growth isn’t guaranteed to be smooth. We’ve seen there’s a tug-of-war going on in the U.S. between federal regulators and state gaming authorities as far as prediction markets go. Globally, the picture is just as uneven. Some jurisdictions see event contracts as financial innovation, while others see them as gambling in a new wrapper. The future of prediction markets will likely depend less on whether people want to trade the future and more on how governments decide to classify it.
Source: https://www.pokerlistings.com/blog/your-guide-to-prediction-markets-in-year by Iva Dozet
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