When in Doubt, ZOOM OUT! (LTO Charts & Analysis)

Hi guys,

I have been posting charts over on the LTOnauts Telegram channel and a few users suggested that I create a Reddit post showing some of my analysis.

Before we get started, here is what this is NOT:

• Financial advice.
• Analysis from a trading expert (I am not an expert).
• Predictions about what will happen in the future.

However, this IS:

• A long-term view of current trends on the LTO chart.
• Some speculation about possibilities that may come to pass.
• An attempt to make sense of short-term price action using long-term trends and context.

Keep in mind that technical analysis on a low cap market such as LTO/USD can be wrecked at any moment by whales making big moves or Bitcoin moving the entire crypto asset class in extreme ways.

Alright, let's dive in!

The larger trend on the daily chart

Upper and lower trends on the daily chart.

Zooming out on the daily charts shows a few lower trend lines across time for LTO/USD. Currently, LTO price action is bound in an overall upward trend between lower and upper bounds. As you can see, the bottom trend line has been re-set three times so far on the daily chart. This is great news as it shows exponential growth.

There is another project whose chart that shows a similar lower trend pattern. Perhaps you have heard of...

LINK/USD Weekly Chart

I find this interesting because I have often compared LTO's growth potential to that of Chainlink. Both are projects that feature a utility token that is available for retail investors to purchase and required for customers to use the service. This token is used for each transaction that is completed, and an increase in transactions has a positive impact on price. I'm not saying that LTO is necessary going to see a price increase upwards of 30,000% like LINK has, but it is a comparison to consider.

A closer look

Closer view at our current daily trend.

You'll notice that there is a dotted green line on this chart. This was a previous upper bound that has since been broken by our previous two All-Time Highs (ATH). This is good news, as the next ATHs may continue to re-print the upper bound that we can use for this daily trend. Often a trip to the top of this channel will be followed by a visit near or to the bottom.

However...

A new daily trend forming?

Yellow line = a potential new daily trend line

Though most trips to the top of the channel are usually followed by downward movement, our most recent ATH has actually resulted in several days of accumulation and push back toward the top. The yellow line in the preceding chart shows that there is potentially a new daily trend forming. I do not believe this this will be a long term daily trend (I'll show you why when we follow these trends out to the end of 2021).

However, let's look at possibilities at this point in time.

1. This yellow line could be a short-term support that brings us back to the top of the channel. The yellow line converges with the dotted green (which seems to still be offering some resistance) on April 11th. The yellow line converges with the solid green line on April 27th. Note that the yellow line currently shares a price zone with the 20 day MA and 21 day EMA, which have acted as a decent support band in recent weeks.
2. The yellow line will not hold as support and price action may print a sort of double top at the dotted green line before revisiting the bottom of the channel. As of today (March 27th, 2021), the bottom green trend line sits around $0.39. So price could drop that low and still be within the overall rising wedge on the daily chart. Keep in mind that this bottom trend line climbs in price every day.

The long view (trend lines at EOY)

I said we would take a look at where these trend lines land at the end of the year (EOY)...

EOY prices for each trend line.

To be clear, this is a very dubious exercise. These trends can change between now and the end of 2021. Keep in mind that whales and the behavior of Bitcoin can sweep all of this off of the table quite easily.

Notice that the yellow trend line brings us to a price of $652 EOY. This is why I do not think this line is a reliable long-term trend, but rather a more short-term trend within the context of the more established daily trend.

However, the other prices shown here may be more realistic. $28.65, $22.05, $15.25, and $0.27 are all within the realm of possibility, especially as the LTO Network experiences positive fundamental events, such as the expansion of the UN Land Registry, DIDs, integration of Chainlink, a possible U.S. exchange listing, and many others that I am surely missing.

Conclusion

If you are still here, thanks for following along!

I have some follow-up charts that I will post in the coming days that are related to this longer term view. I post more short term analysis almost every day over in the LTOnauts Telegram channel, so feel free to join us over there if you would like to see more!

Tl;Dr Don't fret about short term price action too much. Zooming out shows that we will experience up and down movement, but the overall trend is very bullish indeed.