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Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Mega cap bubble tech stocks, risky silver, the yen carry trade unwind and being the ultimate contrarian in the age of mass mind control.
"Risk can not be eliminated. It can only be shifted in time and redistributed in form" - Chris Chole (Artemis Capital)
Get your drink or smoke and strap in because this is going to be another long winded rant. These are the opinions from a man who refuses to drink tap water. Proceed with caution.
It's 2024 and we've come a long way from what were at the time some pretty big scams. Dot com, subprime. Those were the warm ups. Since the market volatility in 2008 these are the bubbles that I can come up with off the top of my head.
- bitcoin
- Student loans
- Auto loans (subprime)
- bio tech stocks
- pot stocks
- meme stocks
- bitcoin again this time with an NFT scam layer
- china stocks
- bitcoin again
- meme stocks again
- federal trade deficits
- federal spending and the federal debt
- a.i. stocks
- ten others I can't think of off the top of my head
And now, at last! The final boss. SMCI and Nvidia. Feared across the galaxy. All who challenged their valuations were devoured and the stock market battlefield was littered with corpse piles of the short sellers. SMCI up a clean 20x and Nvidia up a clean 10x. Cisco meet Nvidia.
You know what I learned from getting into the silver gang in 2011? You never, ever, ever buy the vertical of the parabola. You missed it. Just don't do it. Just wait for the next opportunity. I hate to make a prediction because it just makes you a target if you get it wrong or get the timing wrong but I think Nvidia (despite being a great company) is in the process of imploding. I lurk and post in other subreddits that are NPC strong holds and let me tell you, everyone is greedy for the latest fad. I try to bring the good news of precious metals and the critique of greed. My posts are deleted immediately. Thus I have returned here to my echo chamber where I may not reach my fellow man but I can at least say it loud and tell you how I really feel.
We are beyond markets. This is devolving into an exercise in mass psychology, greed/fear, mega banks with unlimited money and super computers trained to trade in high frequency mode. Nvidia trades about 25 billion dollars a day notional ...on a slow day. She added over 300 billion of market cap in a single session last week? Yeah right. That's why I always say the hyperinflation is already in the system. It's an event that has already occurred it just hasn't landed in cost of living markets that would make it self evident (oil).
charts a few days old flirted with -30% for 10seconds monday morning before exploding higher
It was bad enough we had insufferable meme stock and crypto pumpers all over the place now we've gotta hear about how Nvidia is the buy opportunity of a life time because it had one or two bad days. I suppose I would feel invincible too if I too had a infinite money glitch machine in my home.
Now we can get into the precious metals side of the equation. Let's recap current events. Gold put in a generational low October 2023 and hasn't looked back since. Setting eight weekly closing record all time highs after a long four year wide ride to no where. About the time gold was closing over 2000 for the last time and closing over 2100 for the first time silver closed over 26. That was a two year nine month high. Then two weeks later silver made an eleven year high and added on gains on top of that. Up until this latest silver smack down scam silver was the best preforming asset year to date.
The best mining stocks came close to doubling, or did double, one tripled, one almost tripled. The heavy weight GDX component stocks that have reported earnings so far have beat earnings. And no one cares, yet. And that's the way it needs to be. When you are a contrarian the big pay day is not supposed to come easy. It's supposed to be hard and difficult. You're supposed to be ignored and ridiculed. Hell I'm sure the Nvidians who were bullish all those years ago would agree. Between the time you enter the trade and the time you get the bag you're supposed to be down massively, questioning your decisions, afraid you fucked it up big this time. Bigger than last time.
My heroes growing up were Peter Schiff. He's out there betting against subprime the whole time the trade is going against him, which went on for a year or two. Then he made 10x on the trade. I honestly thought The Big Silver Short Squeeze was never more than one to two years away. We are far beyond that now. Either the payday has been shifted in time and will be redistributed in form or we are dead wrong. I don't think we are dead wrong.
It will be interesting to see how the gold and silver markets react between now and the end of the year. I don't think stocks are done tanking. We will know the end is near when mega cap tech stocks have another down round and silver stocks not only don't go down in sympathy but rise in a strongly anti correlated manner.
cherry picked start and end date range, still impressive
Make no mistake. We are coming out of the longest, nastiest precious metals bear market, definitely for silver. The 2020 wipe out was so demoralizing that even I caved. Instead of going all in then and there when spot silver hit $12 I got all up in my emotions. I knew there would be a rebound but I honestly thought silver would just drift below 20 and be range bound in the teens for another decade or two. I didn't sell any but I abstained from all buying of anything, physical/stocks.
We are not there yet but silver getting stomped is giving me flashbacks. This time I will be buying this bottom. Even if it's not THE bottom. Actually as some of you know I took heavy losses this past January in the silver stock options market. I mean I was convinced order would be restored before the January 2024 expiration. After that November 2023 silver rally I thought we might be in the clear. Then she disintegrated between December 2023 and February 2024.
I was laying in bed depressed. Staring at the SILJ chart on my phone. Just in disbelief. Here we are, 13 years from the silver high, drowning in debt, at war with the world. SILJ eight dollars. Then I look to the left of the chart. SILJ 2022 eight dollars. SILJ 2023 eight dollars. SILJ 2024 eight dollars. So I lay there trying to make sense out of my deteriorating situation. I did the only rational thing I could think of. I started accumulating all over again from scratch.
What I am trying to say is keep the faith alive. Never cave. The precious metals will shine. They will out shine all others. It's not going to be easy. There will be a lot of resistance. There will be a lot of pain along the way. This isn't over, it hasn't even begun. Gold stocks relative to Gold normalized to Gold's August 2020 high is lagging behind badly. Gold stocks relative to Gold normalized to the 2024 trough low and gold stocks are beating spot gold 2:1 and the GDX components have been strong since last year.
Slowly and steadily we're make gains. This is a test of will and a war of attrition. There will be defeats along the way the mission is to win the war. Battles will be lost and won along the way.
We are broke! We are 35 trillion in debt. There is another 35 trillion coming in on top of that immediately in front of us. The interest alone on the 35 trillion is a trillion. If Nvidia is worth 3 trillion then the 261 million gold ounces held by the United States government should be worth at least one trillion. When you work that out gold would need to be about $4,000 an ounce. Which would cover 3% of the existing debt. Add a zero to each side of the equation need be.
This might be a once in a life time opportunity. We are already past the first up wave and in the process of digesting the first down wave. We will be waving up and down and up again from here on out. The days of silver and gold being range bound for years are over. They say men go mad in herds yet only come to their senses one by one. And that's exactly what is happening right now.
Stay strong fam. Keep doing the opposite of the main stream. It's the only way to survive what's coming.
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