Network/wallet resilience

This might be an odd one but wanting to hear views on it.

Bitcoin has great use as value preservation and as a transactional tool (though I hold the value preservation use is the stronger of the two).

In the event of larger scale war, between cyber, nuclear and EMP threats what’s the network and wallet resilience look like?

The defence is its distributed nature I suppose, if the UK did find itself without energy to run mining rigs the network still operates. Even if a hardware wallet was fried by EMP the network recalls public key so recovery (as long as private key retained) should be possible.

As long as no single entity has control of 51% of the networks processing power it is safe. What if someone targetted DDOS style, where changing the blockchain wasn’t the aim, it was merely to render it inoperable by throwing so much noise at nodes/miners they couldn’t process requests?

Maybe a daft question but it’s just occurred to me and I’m curious what I’m missing and others thoughts on it.

Price predictions 2025-2030 📈

Price predictions play a crucial role in shaping investor strategies and market sentiment. As Bitcoin continues to capture the attention of both retail and institutional investors, numerous financial institutions and analysts have weighed in with their forecasts for the cryptocurrency's price in the short and long term. Understanding these predictions can provide valuable context for navigating the complexities of the market and making informed investment decisions

In this article, we summarize the key Bitcoin price predictions from major institutions, categorizing them into short-term 2024 forecasts and long-term forecasts while exploring the factors influencing these outlooks.

## 2024 Predictions

The two most significant events until the end of this year are the U.S. interest rate cuts decision and the U.S. presidential election. Following the Federal Reserve's surprising decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, the market's response to this larger-than-expected cut is the key focus. Several institutions have expressed concern that a 50bps interest rate cut could signal economic situation deterioration.

### Bernstein: Bitcoin could hit $80-90k if Trump wins, or $30-40k if Harris is elected

Prominent global asset management firm Bernstein has made significant predictions regarding Bitcoin's price in relation to the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November 2024. They foresee a stark contrast in Bitcoin's performance depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins.

**Predictions Based on Election Outcomes**

- If Donald Trump Wins: Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could surge to between $80,000 and $90,000 by the end of 2024. This bullish outlook is attributed to Trump's pro-crypto stance, including promises to improve regulatory clarity and his intention to replace the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, who is viewed unfavorably by many in the crypto community. Trump's commitment to making the U.S. a "crypto capital" and his favorable reception among crypto investors bolster this prediction.

- If Kamala Harris Wins: Conversely, if Harris is elected, Bernstein anticipates a significant decline in Bitcoin's price, potentially dropping to the $30,000 to $40,000 range. This bearish forecast stems from Harris's less defined stance on cryptocurrencies, which has led to uncertainty within the crypto sector. Despite some outreach efforts from her campaign, the overall sentiment among crypto leaders leans towards preferring Trump due to his more constructive policies regarding digital assets.

### Bitfinex: Bitcoin could dip to $45,000 after rate cuts

Bitfinex analysts have provided a nuanced prediction regarding Bitcoin's potential price movement in response to U.S. interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. They suggest that Bitcoin could experience a significant dip, potentially falling to around $45,000. This forecast is rooted in the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and market psychology, particularly as traders react to changes in monetary policy.

**Rate Cut Magnitude and Its Impact**

The prediction hinges on the expectation of interest rate cuts, which are often seen as a response to economic challenges.

The magnitude of the rate cuts will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's price trajectory. Bitfinex thinks an aggressive 50 basis point cut could trigger a more immediate and pronounced reaction in the market, potentially causing Bitcoin to spike by 5-8% due to increased liquidity expectations. Yet, this surge may be short-lived as traders reassess the broader economic implications as**a 50 basis point cut means the Fed foresees a deteriorating economic situation.**

Bitcoin has not experienced a full-scale U.S. recession, the potential impact of a U.S. recession on Bitcoin is still to be seen. However, Bitcoin has shown a positive correlation with high-risk assets, particularly technology stocks. During a recession, when investors typically retreat to safer investments, Bitcoin's price could decline alongside these riskier assets.

### 10x Research: Bitcoin could drop to $45,000

10x Research, a digital asset research firm, has issued a concerning forecast regarding Bitcoin's price, suggesting that it could drop to $45,000 in the near future. This prediction is based on a combination of market dynamics, recent trends in Bitcoin's active addresses, and broader economic conditions.

One of the primary reasons for this bearish outlook is the significant decline in Bitcoin's active addresses, which peaked in November 2023 at around 1.2 million but has since plummeted to approximately 596,940 as of early September 2024. Markus Thielen, the Head of Research at 10x Research, highlighted that this sharp decline in active addresses indicates a reduction in network activity and investor interest. The drop suggests that many participants are disengaging from the market, which could lead to decreased demand for Bitcoin and a subsequent price decline.

Additionally, 10X Research has also expressed **concerns regarding the potential impact of a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Bitcoin's price**. They caution that such a significant cut could signal deeper economic worries, which may lead investors to retreat from riskier assets like Bitcoin.

A 50 bps cut could be interpreted as a sign of urgency in response to economic weakness, prompting a flight to safer assets. This reaction could adversely affect Bitcoin, as investors may seek stability in uncertain times.

## Long Term Prediction

### Bernstein: $200,000 price target for the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029

Bernstein analysts have made a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin's price trajectory over the next decade. They forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by the increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs and a shrinking supply of available Bitcoin. Their long-term projections are even more optimistic, predicting $500,000 by 2029 and a staggering $1 million by 2033.

These projections are primarily influenced by factors such as the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly from institutional investors. **Nearly 80% of the spot Bitcoin ETF flows come from self-directed retail investors through broker platforms currently, while institutional integrations with wirehouses are still in their infancy.**


_Spot Bitcoin ETF projections. Source: Bernstein_

Bernstein believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs could manage around $190 billion in assets under management (AUM) by 2025 and as much as $3 trillion by 2033, which would significantly impact Bitcoin's price. They also point to constrained Bitcoin supply and the broader economic environment, including shifts in inflation and regulatory attitudes, as additional catalysts for this bullish outlook.

### ARK Invest: $1.5 million by 2030

ARK Invest has made a highly optimistic prediction for Bitcoin in its [Big Ideas 2024 report projecting that the cryptocurrency could reach $1.5 million by 2030 and potentially soar as high as $2.3 million in the long term. This bullish forecast hinges on several key factors:

- **Institutional Adoption**: ARK believes that as institutional and high-net-worth investors allocate more of their portfolios to Bitcoin, demand will surge. They estimate that a 19.4% allocation of the global investable asset base---worth roughly $250 trillion---into Bitcoin could drive the price to $2.3 million.


Bitcoin Price Potential. Source: Ark Invest

- **Macroeconomic Catalysts**: Bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a hedge during economic uncertainty, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. ARK highlights that Bitcoin's role as a store of value and its performance amidst global financial turbulence further solidifies its long-term potential.

- **ETF Adoption and Regulation**: The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, and ARK expects these funds to play a significant role in Bitcoin's price appreciation.

### VanEck: $2.9M by 2050

VanEck has outlined several potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price by 2050 in its latest research report published in July 2024.

VanEck's detailed projections for Bitcoin's potential price by 2050 offer several scenarios, shaped by varying levels of adoption and global economic shifts:


Source: VanEck

- **Base Case Scenario** ($2.9 Million per Bitcoin by 2050)

In VanEck's base case, Bitcoin reaches $2.9 million per coin. This scenario envisions Bitcoin handling 10% of global trade and 5% of domestic trade, with central banks holding 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin. The report projects that Bitcoin's total market capitalization could grow to $61 trillion. Key to this outcome is Bitcoin being adopted as a global medium of exchange and a reserve asset, as the value of traditional reserve currencies, such as the U.S. dollar and euro, diminishes due to rising deficits, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.

- **Bear Case Scenario**($130,314 per Bitcoin)

In the bear case, Bitcoin's price bottoms out at $130,314 by 2050. This scenario is built on the assumption of limited adoption and more conservative economic growth, alongside challenges in scaling Bitcoin's infrastructure to handle global financial needs

- **Bull Case Scenario**($52.4 Million per Bitcoin)

VanEck's bull case is the most optimistic, predicting Bitcoin could soar to $52.4 million per coin. This forecast relies on widespread global adoption of Bitcoin as a dominant global currency and its use in both international and domestic trade. In this scenario, Bitcoin's market cap would far exceed the base case, driven by advanced scaling solutions like Layer-2 networks that would enable Bitcoin to handle the transactional volume necessary for a global financial system.

My impressions as someone who‘s new to Bitcoin

Hi,

I‘m new to investing money in general. I‘ve invested about 3.6k $of my (extremely limited) savings since March and, since I put about half of that into Bitcoin, I‘ve turned a great profit (if I cashed out all my investments now I‘d get 4.7k $ back). I‘ve been reading posts in this sub when they pop up on my timeline, and I‘ve been wanting to share some impressions and questions with the community.

I‘m not looking to offend anyone and the things I‘m about to ask aren‘t too controversial I hope.

1. Some of the people HODLING seem to be gambling on the collapse of fiat currencies. Like most people, I‘ve noticed the steady decay of purchasing power with my currency (€). I‘m grateful for the opportunity to funnel some of my disposable income into Bitcoin in order to preserve what little I‘ve been able to save over the past years.

However, I‘m not looking forward to the collateral of a collapse of big fiat currencies. I think it‘d mean a period of chaos and many, many people would really suffer, who knows for how long. I realise the system we live in is very much flawed. It‘s unjust, it caters to those who already have more than they could possibly spend or even enjoy, it does not supply the weakest of its members with basic amenities. It wreaks havoc on the planet and, in most aspects, it‘s becoming worse, not better. My problem is that I cannot see how a collapse of fiat and subsequent chaos would make things better.

1. The US American election: I realise and acknowledge that I do not have a say in US American politics. I do have a right to my own opinion, though. I wouldn‘t call myself an expert on politics, but I work as a teacher for English and Poltical Education in a European country, so I‘m obligated to keep up with current events and read up on stuff. I‘m really worried about the impact Trump‘s policies are going to have on the American people. Him making promises towards the “Bitcoin-community“ (for lack of a better word) is not a worthwhile trade-off and I hate the fact that by owning Bitcoin I suddenly was to benefit from Trump‘s election.

I‘m ordering „The Bitcoin Standard“ today to read up more on Bitcoin and I‘m opening up a proper wallet (instead of buying through a trading app like I‘ve been doing until now), even though I don‘t fully understand why that‘s better yet :D.

I realise my thoughts don‘t really come with questions, but still I‘m excited to hear your opinions on my impressions.

I hope you have a nice day.