Sunday, February 15, 2026

EverHint – Momentum Swing — Breakout Standard for Feb 13, 2026 – 32 Signals – Industrials Leads (8)

What This Signal Is (Quick)

Breakout Standard is a momentum swing trading strategy focused on Stocks within 3% of 52-week high - standard breakout momentum setups.

Signal Type : Breakout (momentum continuation)

Key Criteria :

  • Near 52W High: Within 3%
  • Volume: 1.5x+ average
  • Momentum confirmation
  • Holding Period : 1-4 weeks (swing trading timeframe)
  • Risk Level : Medium

What Makes This Signal :

  • Stock showing strong momentum near or at highs
  • Increased volume confirms institutional interest
  • Breaking out or consolidating near resistance
  • Stocks within 3% of 52-week high - standard breakout momentum setups

Ideal For : Swing traders looking for breakout opportunities with confirmed momentum

Key Criteria:

  • Strong RSI momentum (configurable thresholds)

  • Volume surge above average

  • Price momentum confirmation

  • Minimum ADV: $25M+ (varies by variant)

  • Earnings buffer: 7 days pre/post earnings

  • Variant-specific filters applied

Holding Period: 1-4 weeks
Risk Level: Medium-High


How We Ranked Today

Ranked by composite momentum score (higher = stronger momentum)


📊 Momentum Swing — Breakout Standard Signals (Top 10 of 32 total)

Ranked by score:

Rank Ticker Company Sector Last ($) Score Vol Thrust @52w Insider Net Days → Earnings Est EPS Mkt Cap ($B)
1 CLMT Calumet, Inc Energy 28.61 0.978 2.14x 0.0% 83 $2.49 2.5
2 FLS Flowserve Corporation Industrials 89.69 0.962 2.08x 0.0% 73 $5.26 11.4
3 IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation Technology 153.91 0.916 2.00x 0.0% 80 $3.94 6.5
4 NE Noble Corporation plc A Energy 45.82 0.881 2.58x 0.0% 73 $2.17 7.3
5 GLDD Great Lakes Dredge & D... Industrials 16.89 0.847 1.97x 0.0% $-130K 80 $1.24 1.1
6 MGA Magna International, Inc. Consumer Cyclical 68.73 0.806 4.28x 0.0% 76 $7.34 19.4
7 SKM SK Telecom Co., Ltd. Communication Services 32.56 0.784 1.66x 0.0% 87 $0.00 12.5
8 MFG Mizuho Financial Group... Financial Services 9.90 0.734 2.58x 0.0% 89 $150.35 122.3
9 RIG Transocean Ltd (Switze... Energy 6.54 0.731 1.68x 0.0% 73 $0.19 5.9
10 DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. Consumer Defensive 50.96 0.706 1.71x 0.0% 68 $5.30 8.1

Field Notes

Sector concentration: Industrials (8), Energy (6), Consumer Cyclical (4)

Insider selling: LBRT (Liberty Energy Inc., $-1.3M), AKAM (Akamai Technologies, Inc., $-451K), WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc., $-167K)

Data coverage: 15.6% insider, 0.0% congressional, 90.6% earnings, 100.0% analyst, 40.6% news


Peer Analysis

Understanding how these stocks relate to their industry peers:

GLDD (Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corpo): Leads 10 peers: BWMN ($33.76, +1.8%), APOG ($41.44, +0.1%), NPK ($124.47, +2.5%), CRESY ($11.77, -1.1%), SKYH ($8.83, +5.1%) | Peer of: APOG ($41.44, +0.1%), BWMN ($33.76, +1.8%), CRESY ($11.77, -1.1%) and 11 more

MFG (Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp): Leads 8 peers: BMO ($141.02, +0.6%), PNC ($229.32, -0.2%), USB ($57.69, -0.2%), DB ($35.28, -3.8%), LYG ($5.61, -3.6%) | Peer of: AON ($321.70, +2.3%), BAM ($52.65, +1.3%), BMO ($141.02, +0.6%) and 10 more

IPGP (IPG Photonics Corporation): Leads 6 peers: AMBA ($66.21, +0.4%), SIMO ($136.28, -1.5%), SLAB ($207.27, +0.1%), NVTS ($8.30, -0.8%), ASAN ($7.56, +0.4%) | Peer of: AMBA ($66.21, +0.4%), FORM ($96.73, +3.3%), SIMO ($136.28, -1.5%) and 2 more

DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.): Leads 12 peers: JJSF ($86.30, +1.4%), POST ($111.90, +1.4%), BRBR ($17.87, +1.4%), JBSS ($80.12, +1.4%), THS ($24.43, -0.1%) | Peer of: BRBR ($17.87, +1.4%), CALM ($83.44, +0.3%), ELF ($81.50, +9.7%) and 3 more

MGA (Magna International, Inc.): Leads 12 peers: ALSN ($117.79, +1.8%), APTV ($85.20, +2.6%), LKQ ($34.10, +0.2%), LEA ($137.87, +0.8%), BWA ($62.80, -5.6%) | Peer of: ALSN ($117.79, +1.8%), APTV ($85.20, +2.6%), CHWY ($24.23, -0.2%) and 11 more

FLS (Flowserve Corporation): Leads 10 peers: AOS ($80.46, +1.1%), WTS ($328.53, -2.3%), RRX ($220.19, +3.1%), DCI ($109.46, -0.4%), GNRC ($224.45, +4.0%) | Peer of: AIT ($279.84, +0.3%), AOS ($80.46, +1.1%), ARMK ($38.98, -0.5%) and 20 more

SKM (SK Telecom Co., Ltd.): Leads 5 peers: KT ($23.56, +0.2%), TIGO ($65.71, -0.0%), LBRDA ($55.43, +0.5%), LUMN ($8.39, +4.9%), TIMB ($26.12, -3.8%) | Peer of: IHS ($8.29, +0.1%), KT ($23.56, +0.2%), LBRDA ($55.43, +0.5%) and 10 more

NE (Noble Corporation plc A): Leads 10 peers: TGS ($29.43, +1.8%), CNX ($40.60, +3.4%), AROC ($32.66, +2.8%), CHRD ($102.02, +2.6%), MTDR ($47.80, +2.0%) | Peer of: AROC ($32.66, +2.8%), CHRD ($102.02, +2.6%), CNX ($40.60, +3.4%) and 8 more

CLMT (Calumet, Inc): Leads 10 peers: TALO ($13.12, +4.1%), BTE ($3.47, +2.4%), NEXT ($5.20, +2.0%), WKC ($26.79, +1.7%), GEL ($17.54, +2.6%) | Peer of: BKV ($30.55, +1.3%), BTE ($3.47, +2.4%), GEL ($17.54, +2.6%) and 6 more

RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)): Leads 10 peers: PTEN ($8.10, -0.5%), KGS ($50.28, +0.1%), PBF ($34.54, +2.6%), STNG ($70.51, +4.0%), GPOR ($203.97, +2.2%) | Peer of: BTU ($34.45, -2.0%), CVI ($23.17, +1.6%), ENPH ($43.49, -1.5%) and 8 more


Recent Headlines

RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland))

  • Transocean (RIG) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? (source)
  • Offshore Titans: Transocean Buys Valaris for $5.8B (source)
  • Investors Buy High Volume of Transocean Call Options (NYSE:RIG) (source)
  • Transocean-Valaris Merger Creates Offshore Drilling Powerhouse (source)
  • Transocean Ltd. (RIG) M&A Call Transcript (source)
  • Transocean Ltd. Announces Contract Award and Extension Totaling $184 Million (source)
  • $HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Announces An Investigation of Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (source)
  • Transocean Q4 Earnings on Deck: Here's How It Will Fare (source)
  • Amazon, Transocean, Interactive Brokers And More On CNBC's 'Final Trades' (source)
  • Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Booking Holdings, On Semi, Palantir Technologies, Snap, Spotify, Qualcomm, Vistra Corp., and More (source)
  • Transocean (RIG) Moves 5.9% Higher: Will This Strength Last? (source)
  • Transocean (NYSE:RIG) Sees Unusually-High Trading Volume Following Analyst Upgrade (source)
  • Valaris Investor Alert: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Valaris Limited - VAL (source)
  • Stock Market Today, Feb. 9: Transocean Shares Surge After Announcing $5.8 Billion Valaris Acquisition (source)
  • Are STKL, VAL, RIG Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders? (source)
  • Transocean to acquire Valaris in $5.8B all-stock deal (source)
  • RIG Stock Alert: Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether Transocean Ltd. is Obtaining a Fair Deal for its Shareholders (source)
  • London BTC Company chair discusses gold hedge strategy to counter Bitcoin volatility (source)
  • Transocean to Acquire Valaris in $5.8 Billion Deal (source)
  • Transocean to Acquire Valaris (source)

SKM (SK Telecom Co., Ltd.)

  • Should Value Investors Buy SK Telecom Co. (SKM) Stock? (source)

Market Context

The major indices are showing minimal movement, with the S&P 500 up just 0.01%, the Dow Jones flat at -0.00%, and the Nasdaq dipping slightly by 0.07%. This tight range reflects market indecision and subdued risk appetite, creating a cautious environment for momentum swing breakout strategies. Such setups rely on clear directional momentum to capture intraday swings, but the lack of strong trend direction increases the risk of false breakouts in a sideways grind.

Volatility has eased, as evidenced by the VIX declining 4.10% to 20.60, which tempers the potential for sharp intraday moves typically needed for breakout confirmation. While lower volatility reduces whipsaws over time, it currently compresses swing amplitude, making it harder for standard momentum signals to gain traction without broader participation. Traders should prioritize signals with above-average volume to filter noise in this moderate-vol regime.

With 32 total signals and industrials leading, sector rotation appears to favor cyclical areas amid the flat broader market. This could signal budding risk-on flows into economically sensitive sectors, offering selective breakout opportunities where momentum aligns with relative strength. However, the mixed index performance warrants tighter stops to manage downside in a low-conviction backdrop.


⚠️ Extended Non-Trading Period Alert

Important: The next 3 days (Saturday, February 14 through Monday, February 16) are non-trading days (weekend/holiday).

What this means:

  • Markets will not reopen until Tuesday, February 17
  • News and events occurring over this extended non-trading period may significantly influence market sentiment
  • Monitor news flow closely during this period
  • Be prepared for potential gaps or increased volatility when markets reopen
  • Earnings announcements, geopolitical events, or major news during this period can lead to significant price movements at the open
  • Consider adjusting position sizes or using protective stops given the extended gap risk

Vlad's Take (EverHint)

Today's signals: Strong sector concentration in Industrials (8 signals) suggests sector-specific rotation. 5 signals showing insider selling warrant caution.


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Hopefully the last 48 hours of waiting DD

The Sovereign Infrastructure Pivot: A Forensic Analysis of the AiRWA Inc. Corporate Reconstruction and the Fire Horse Financial Ecosystem

The emergence of AiRWA Inc. (formerly Connexa Sports Technologies, $YYAI) represents a paradigm shift in the micro-cap equity markets, transitioning from a distressed legacy sports technology firm into a vertically integrated, sovereign-aligned artificial intelligence (AI) and Real-World Asset (RWA) infrastructure entity. This transformation was not a mere rebranding but a comprehensive corporate reconstruction characterized by a strategic demolition of its previous capital structure and the assembly of a multi-billion-dollar digital asset treasury and physical infrastructure vault. This report provides a forensic examination of this transition, structured as a three-act corporate play, and analyzes the underlying capital flows, institutional maneuvers, and regulatory catalysts that define the "Fire Horse" ecosystem scheduled for full market activation on February 17, 2026.

Act I: The Pivot and the Purge – Structural Demolition (August – October 2025)

The initial phase of the reconstruction, termed "The Pivot and the Purge," was designed to liquidate the historical identity of Connexa Sports Technologies and establish a clean foundation for high-growth Web3 and AI infrastructure. This period was marked by the elimination of "float bloat" and the acquisition of the initial liquidity required to anchor a global RWA exchange.

The Death of Legacy and the JuCoin Alliance

The transition began in earnest on August 29, 2025, when the company, then operating as Connexa Sports, filed a definitive agreement with JuCoin to launch the aiRWA Exchange. This agreement envisioned a $500 million collaborative effort to build a next-generation platform for the tokenization of real-world assets, specifically targeting the $3.7 trillion stablecoin and yield-bearing asset market.

To signal the gravity of this pivot, the company executed a total rebrand. On September 30, 2025, the Board of Directors approved the name change to AiRWA Inc., which took effect on the Nasdaq Capital Market on October 7, 2025. This rebranding was accompanied by a material "Proof of Funds" event. JuCoin committed an initial $100 million investment, of which $30 million was delivered in the form of 150,000 Solana (SOL) tokens. The strategic selection of the Solana blockchain as the core infrastructure was driven by its capacity for sub-second settlement and high transaction throughput, essential for the exchange’s mission of settling tokenized U.S. equities with the same speed as traditional cryptocurrencies.

The Great Reset: Forensic Share Structure Analysis

By mid-October 2025, the company faced a dual challenge: its share price was well below the Nasdaq’s $1.00 minimum requirement, and its common stock was diluted by nearly a billion shares following extensive at-the-market (ATM) transactions. To correct this, AiRWA executed a 1-for-50 reverse stock split on October 27, 2025.

This maneuver was more than a compliance exercise; it was a "Great Reset" of the retail float. By reducing the issued and outstanding shares from approximately 949 million to 18.98 million, the company effectively concentrated its equity into a manageable structure that could be systematically "locked" by institutional partners in the subsequent phase. The reverse split occurred simultaneously with the receipt of the Solana tokens, creating a period of extreme liquidity compression as the market adjusted to the new split-adjusted trading basis.

Capital Structure Metric Pre-Split (Oct 2025) Post-Split Baseline Strategic Reasoning
Common Shares Outstanding ~949,000,000 ~18,980,000 Consolidation for institutional entry.
Float Composition High Retail / Diluted Compressed / "Tight" Reducing short-seller liquidity.
Primary Listing Asset Legacy Tennis Tech aiRWA Exchange (SOL-backed) Pivot to high-multiple Web3 infrastructure.
Nasdaq Status Non-compliant (<$1.00) Compliant (>$1.00 post-RS) Maintaining institutional listing access.

Act II: The Institutional Lock – Capital Anatomy and the Whales (November – December 2025)

With the share structure reset, the company moved into a phase of institutional consolidation. The objective of Act II was to transfer the majority of the remaining float to strategic "Diamond Hand" partners, effectively insulating the stock from retail volatility and short-selling pressure.

The Yuanyu Enterprise Management (YYEM) Integration

A critical component of the "locked" float strategy was the acquisition of a 70% stake in Yuanyu Enterprise Management Co., Limited (YYEM). On November 21, 2025, AiRWA issued 8,127,572 pre-split shares (approximately 162,552 post-split shares) to Chairman Hongyu Zhou in exchange for control of YYEM. This transaction provided the company with the foundational patents and digital matchmaking technology necessary to operate a localized exchange across international jurisdictions.

By late 2025, it became clear that Hongyu Zhou was not merely a passive chairman but the primary architect of the reconstruction. His holdings were reported with "sole voting and dispositive power," and his Schedule 13D filings indicated no group membership, suggesting a centralized and highly controlled governance structure.

The 15.5M Share Placement and the "Faction" Logic

On December 19, 2025, the company entered its most significant institutional phase: a registered direct offering of 15,382,378 shares at $1.02 per share. This placement, yielding approximately $15.69 million in gross proceeds, was managed by A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners.

The forensic significance of this placement cannot be overstated. By selling over 15 million shares—representing nearly the entire remaining post-split float—to a select group of "Institutional Partners" at a floor price of $1.02, the company effectively "removed" the float from the open market. This created a structural bottleneck for short sellers. With the majority of shares held by insiders (64.53%) and the institutional partners from the placement, the "tradable" retail float became almost non-existent. Market maker (MM) data from December 1, 2025, indicates the beginning of a synthetic acquisition phase where institutions began accumulating positions to provide liquidity for the exchange launch, while simultaneously trapping legacy shorts who were unable to cover due to the lack of available shares.

Ownership Component Estimated Share Count Ownership % (Post-Split) Status / Role
Chairman Hongyu Zhou 5,816,489 ~13.80% Strategic Control / Insider.
Institutional Placement 15,382,378 ~40% "The Faction" / Locked Float.
Legacy Insiders - ~50.73% Core Control Block.
Institutional Filers (13F) 909,609 ~2.40% Vanguard, UBS, Jane Street.

Act III: The Global Consolidation – The Malaysian Fortress (January – February 17, 2026)

The final act of the reconstruction represents the construction of the physical and digital "Vault." During this phase, the company transitioned from a technology licensing firm into a physical infrastructure giant through high-value acquisitions in Southeast Asia.

The $140 Million Malaysian AI Acquisition

On January 30, 2026, AiRWA announced the closing of a $140,000,000 cash acquisition of Aberfeldy Holdings Limited. This Seychelles-based entity owns 100% of 26 Rafael Sdn. Bhd., a Malaysian operating company specializing in end-to-end AI services. 26 Rafael is built around five interconnected AI modules that facilitate a closed-loop system for data generation and model refinement, serving high-stakes industries such as healthcare, autonomous driving, and industrial manufacturing.

The acquisition provides AiRWA with an immediate revenue engine, as 26 Rafael recorded approximately $27 million in revenue in its most recent financial year. More importantly, it secures the physical facilities necessary to settle the massive transaction volumes anticipated for the aiRWA Exchange. The acquisition was funded entirely in cash, highlighting the robust capital position of the "Faction" ecosystem.

The CHAI Connection and Tier 4 Infrastructure

On February 4, 2026, Core AI (Nasdaq: CHAI) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Malaysian data center developer CSPM Resources SDN BHD to retrofit existing edge facilities into AI-ready Tier 3 and Tier 4 data centers. Tier 4 certification represents the pinnacle of data center infrastructure, requiring 99.995% uptime and full fault tolerance—standards typically reserved for national interest utilities and sovereign-level financial settlement.

Thomas Tarala, the CEO of AiRWA, also holds significant influence in the CHAI ecosystem, suggesting a vertical integration between AiRWA’s physical assets (the 26 Rafael facilities) and CHAI’s technical retrofitting capabilities. This integration allows for the deployment of a "Sovereign Vault" in Malaysia, capable of hosting the backend infrastructure for high-security financial pilots.

The "Missing Link": Capital A and the Ringgit Stablecoin

A primary objective of the February 2026 research was to identify the connection between AiRWA’s Malaysian expansion and the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) stablecoin pilots. On February 11, 2026, the BNM’s Digital Asset Innovation Hub (DAIH) announced three initiatives involving ringgit stablecoins and tokenized deposits.

The most significant pilot is the Business-to-Business (B2B) Ringgit Stablecoin Settlement System, a partnership between Capital A (the parent of AirAsia) and Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia. While the BNM announcement did not explicitly name AiRWA, the synchronicity of events is compelling:

  1. Geography: AiRWA just spent $140 million to buy a major Malaysian AI/Data hub (26 Rafael).
  2. Timing: The BNM pilot was launched on Feb 11, just days after the CHAI Tier 3/4 MOU was signed.
  3. Utility: Capital A and Standard Chartered require a high-security, locally-hosted infrastructure to settle the Ringgit Stablecoin. AiRWA is the only entity in the immediate vicinity that has just acquired the specialized AI/Data modules required for such a settlement engine.

This suggests that AiRWA may be the "Technical Infrastructure Service Provider" for the Capital A/Standard Chartered JV, a role that would transform its $140 million asset into a national-interest utility for the Malaysian digital finance roadmap.

The "Product" Engine: StablecoinX and the Ethena Flywheel

The valuation of the AiRWA ecosystem is intrinsically linked to the performance of its treasury and staking engine, operated through the StablecoinX/TLGY merger.

The $890 Million PIPE and ENA Accumulation Strategy

StablecoinX has emerged as the first stablecoin-focused digital asset treasury company, raising approximately $893 million in PIPE financing to implement a massive accumulation strategy for Ethena (ENA) tokens. Ethena is the issuer of USDe, a synthetic "digital dollar" that generates yield through a delta-neutral hedging strategy.

The PIPE structure is specifically designed to provide long-term stability:

  • Initial PIPE: ~$363 million in cash used to purchase "Locked ENA Tokens" from Ethena OpCo at a 30% discount to fair market value.
  • Additional PIPE: ~$530 million, funded by a mix of $248 million in ENA tokens and $282 million in cash.
  • Lock-up: All tokens are subject to a 48-month transfer restriction, with 25% unlocking after one year and the remainder over the following 36 months.

This strategy makes StablecoinX one of the largest holders of ENA, providing a massive "Yield Engine" for the AiRWA exchange. Market observers calculate that at a 10% funding rate and a $15 billion USDe supply, the Ethena protocol generates $1.5 billion in annual yield. StablecoinX, as the primary treasury backbone, will capture a significant portion of this yield spread, which can be funneled back to AiRWA (the 51% JV partner) to bolster its balance sheet and fund further infrastructure acquisitions.

Delta-Neutral Yield Mechanics and Valuation

The revenue engine of the StablecoinX treasury is based on the "Basis Trade" or "Delta-Neutral Hedge." This involves:

  1. Buying Spot: Purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH).
  2. Selling Futures: Selling the equivalent amount of perpetual futures on exchanges like Binance or Hyperliquid.

This position is "delta-neutral" because price movements in the underlying asset (BTC/ETH) are cancelled out by the futures position. The profit is derived entirely from the "funding rate"—the premium that long-leverage traders pay to short-sellers (in this case, Ethena/StablecoinX) to maintain their positions. In a bull market, these funding rates can reach 20-30%, creating a high-yield, low-volatility income stream that is unprecedented in traditional finance.

$$Y_{annual} = (S \times R_{funding}) - C_{operational}$$

Where $Y$ is the annual yield, $S$ is the USDe supply, and $R$ is the funding rate. For the AiRWA/StablecoinX JV, this represents a "Sovereign-level" revenue stream that is independent of equity market volatility but captures the growth of the entire digital asset economy.

Forensic Analysis of the "Coiled Spring" (February 16-17, 2026)

As of February 16, 2026, the corporate structure of AiRWA Inc. resembles a "coiled spring" due to the extreme compression of the float and the massive accumulation of assets.

The Shakeout and the Locked Float

In the week leading up to the February 17 deadline, $YYAI$ shares experienced a "shakeout" from $1.70 to $1.20 on low volume. Forensic tracking of the 13F/G filings suggests that this move was designed to flush out the remaining retail weak hands before the "Institutional Hand" is revealed.

Institutional ownership as of February 12, 2026, includes significant names such as Vanguard, UBS, and Jane Street. The presence of Jane Street—a world leader in market making and institutional liquidity—is particularly telling. Market makers do not typically hold significant positions in micro-cap stocks unless they are preparing for massive institutional volume or are involved in the underlying technical settlement of the exchange.

Timeline to the "Fire Horse" Launch

The February 17, 2026, deadline is the final catalyst in the three-act play. This date coincides with the Chinese New Year—the Year of the Fire Horse. In Chinese astrology, the Fire Horse is a symbol of rapid movement, power, and transformation.

Milestone Date Action / Event Structural Impact
Jan 14, 2026 Zhou purchase 4.2M shares @ $1.37 Setting a premium floor for the stock.
Jan 21, 2026 TLGY Merger Outside Date extension Extending the deadline to satisfy final regulatory hurdles.
Jan 30, 2026 Closing of $140M Malaysian Deal Solidifying physical asset backing ($3.60/share book value).
Feb 4, 2026 CHAI Tier 3/4 Data Center MOU Securing sovereign-grade infrastructure.
Feb 11, 2026 BNM Pilot Announcement Validating the stablecoin utility for the data center.
Feb 16, 2026 TLGY Combination Deadline The final bridge of capital into the ecosystem.
Feb 17, 2026 "Fire Horse" Activation Full market integration of the integrated entity.

Scenario Analysis: The Next 48 Hours

Market participants are currently evaluating three distinct scenarios following the February 17 market open.

Scenario A: The Sovereign Reveal (Parabolic Growth)

A formal press release from Capital A (AirAsia) or Bank Negara Malaysia explicitly names AiRWA or its subsidiary (26 Rafael) as the technical infrastructure provider for the Ringgit Stablecoin. This would validate the $140 million acquisition as a "National Interest" utility. Given the locked float, such a reveal would likely lead to a parabolic revaluation as shorts are forced to cover in a market with no available shares.

Scenario B: The Institutional Reveal (High-Floor Revaluation)

The 13F/G filings for the fourth quarter reveal that a Tier-1 crypto-institutional fund (e.g., Dragonfly or Susquehanna) was the primary buyer of the 15.38 million shares in December. This would confirm the "Locked Float" theory and provide a long-term valuation floor, as these institutions are unlikely to sell for several years.

Scenario C: The "Quiet" Merger (Consolidation)

The StablecoinX merger closes, and the exchange begins testing with JuCoin’s users without an immediate "Name Drop" from the BNM. The stock would likely consolidate between $1.20 and $1.50 as the market waits for the first revenue-producing numbers in the April 10-K filing. In this scenario, the "coiled spring" remains wound, with the fundamental value of the $140 million asset providing protection against further downside.

Conclusion: The Integrated Sovereign Engine

The reconstruction of AiRWA Inc. is a strategic masterpiece that has successfully bridged the gap between traditional Nasdaq equity and the burgeoning world of digital finance and AI infrastructure. Through the "demolition" of its previous identity and the systematic acquisition of physical data modules in Malaysia, the company has positioned itself as the essential "backend" for the next generation of sovereign-backed financial services.

The convergence of the $890 million StablecoinX treasury, the 12 million users of JuCoin, and the Tier 4 data center infrastructure of 26 Rafael creates a vertically integrated entity that is uniquely prepared for the "Fire Horse" era of 2026. For professional market participants, the primary takeaway is the total shift in the company’s "DNA"—from a service-based sports tech firm to a physical infrastructure "Vault" that settles the world’s most advanced digital assets. The structural "lock" on the float ensures that the coming activation will be a high-velocity event, reflecting the true magnitude of this corporate transition.


OpenAI begins selling ChatGPT ads as Google reshapes search

OpenAI launches ChatGPT advertising at $60 CPM starting February 10, 2026, while Google deploys AI Mode shopping ads and updates Discover algorithm targeting clickbait content.

https://preview.redd.it/9swaezrgwpjg1.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a7615e39104206883eab7807bb5ecf12f8dbf8de

The artificial intelligence advertising landscape shifted dramatically this week as OpenAI commenced testing advertisements within ChatGPT on Monday, February 10, 2026. The deployment marks a watershed moment for conversational AI monetization, with initial placements commanding premium rates of approximately $60 CPM while carefully avoiding sensitive categories including mental health and politics during the test phase.

Only a subset of eligible users currently receive advertisements, limited to signed-in adult users on free and Go tiers querying specific topics. Within several weeks, the advertising test will expand to all qualifying users, with logged-out users joining subsequent testing rounds. An OpenAI spokesperson clarified these phased rollout details to AdExchanger on February 13.

The platform's sensitive content restrictions stem from internal research conducted mid-2025, which revealed 9.2% of queries focused on "providing consultation and advice to others" while another 8.5% addressed "making decisions and solving problems." These consultation-heavy query patterns create challenges for safe advertising placement that traditional search engines don't encounter. The vulnerability of user conversations—ranging from medical concerns to religious speculation—prompted at least one former OpenAI researcher to resign after the advertising announcement, arguing in The New York Times that the intimacy of these exchanges "creates a potential for manipulating users in ways we don't have the tools to understand, let alone prevent."

PPC Land reported on February 15 that OpenAI's monetization head Asad Awan envisions a future where small businesses create campaigns through prompts instead of hiring performance marketers to manage ChatGPT advertising. This vision of prompt-based ad creation represents a fundamental reimagining of how advertising campaigns are constructed and executed.

The ChatGPT advertising launch represents just one component of a broader AI advertising push that dominated Super Bowl LX on February 8. Adweek reported that 23% of advertisers—equivalent to 15 out of 66 commercials—promoted AI and AI companies during the game, including spots from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and AI.com. The AI.com advertisement crashed its own website immediately after airing, forcing the company to bring systems back online before users could sign up for personal AI agents designed to organize work, send messages, and execute actions across applications.

Google deploys shopping ads directly into AI Mode conversations

Google countered OpenAI's advertising launch by introducing shopping ad formats within AI Mode on February 11, 2026. Vidhya Srinivasan, Google's Vice President and General Manager of Ads, positioned this deployment as part of a broader shift toward agentic commerce where AI assistants conduct product research and purchases on behalf of users.

The new advertising format integrates sponsored product listings directly into conversational AI responses, enabling advertisers to reach consumers during discovery phases of shopping journeys. Srinivasan outlined her five-point framework for navigating AI transformation during discussions about the launch: focusing on customer needs, investing in experimentation, building cross-functional collaboration, maintaining data discipline, and developing talent capabilities for AI-powered marketing.

The executive detailed how Gemini-powered tools will enable real-time optimization while maintaining personalization at scale, aiming to eliminate the traditional choice between speed and certainty in online shopping experiences. The strategic vision represents Google's attempt to maintain advertising dominance as search behavior migrates toward conversational interfaces.

The timing of Google's AI Mode advertising launch coincided with a major algorithmic update targeting its Discover feed. Google released the February 2026 Discover core update on February 5, which Search Engine Roundtable reported would roll out over approximately two weeks, initially affecting only English-language users in the United States before expanding globally.

The Discover update specifically targets three content categories: non-US publishers appearing in American feeds, clickbait or sensational content, and shallow articles lacking depth. The algorithm now prioritizes locally relevant content from websites based in the user's country, in-depth original reporting, and timely content from sites with demonstrated expertise. Glenn Gabe noted on February 5 that Google's Discover documentation now includes "Provide a great page experience" as a recommendation, warning publishers against overloading pages with annoying advertisements and auto-playing content.

Recipe publishers expose dangerous AI-generated content

The Discover update's focus on quality comes amid growing concerns about AI-generated content accuracy. Recipe creators demonstrated on February 11 how Google's algorithms create inaccurate recipes while appropriating brand names and photographs from legitimate publishers. Inspired Taste baked an AI-generated key lime pie to expose how the system produces what they termed "Frankenstein" dishes—recipes combining incompatible ingredients or incorrect proportions that could yield dangerous or inedible results.

The demonstration revealed Google's AI systems scraping publisher content, remixing instructions, and presenting the composite as authoritative guidance while stripping attribution and revenue opportunities from original creators. This content appropriation extends beyond recipes, affecting publishers across multiple verticals as PPC Land reported on February 12 that Penske Media filed opposition arguments accusing Google of shattering "the fundamental exchange that sustained the open internet for decades."

The publisher litigation centers on Google's alleged pattern of extracting content value while offering publishers a "forced choice" between allowing AI scraping or losing search visibility entirely. Penske Media's February 12 filing argues this ultimatum breaks the longstanding web bargain where publishers provided free content in exchange for traffic and advertising opportunities.

Search algorithm volatility continues amid infrastructure changes

Search volatility extended beyond Discover updates this week. SE Ranking analyzed 100,000 keywords across 20 nichesrevealing that 15% of top 10 pages dropped from the top 100 entirely after Google's December 2025 core update. The research, published February 14, found domains aged 15 years or older continue dominating search results despite the algorithmic turbulence affecting newer sites.

Search Engine Roundtable noted on February 9 that January 2026 experienced "incredibly volatile" ranking movement, with multiple unconfirmed updates creating sustained fluctuations. The publication's daily forum recap highlighted discussions about Google matching random number sequences to keywords, with one SEO professional documenting the algorithm pairing "347 222" with "Workers Comp Lawyers" despite no semantic connection.

Google made several operational changes affecting publishers during the week. Search Engine Roundtable reported on February 11 that Google AdSense added three new triggers for vignette advertisements effective February 9, 2026. The six total triggers now include: reaching the end of a page's main article element followed by scrolling back up or 5-10 seconds of inactivity, remaining inactive for 30 seconds followed by user interaction, and navigating backward using supported browsers including Chrome, Edge, and Opera.

Publishers have until March 9, 2026 to opt out of the new triggers, which will automatically activate after the one-month review period. Google emphasized that existing frequency cap settings will continue preventing excessive ad exposure despite the expanded trigger mechanisms.

The company also replaced its Google Ads support form with an AI agent as of February 2, redirecting support.google.com/google-ads/gethelp to a chat experience powered by the Ads Advisor system. Google Ads introduced multi-party approval processes for enhanced security, aiming to prevent account hijacking by requiring multiple stakeholders to authorize significant account changes.

ChatGPT traffic analysis reveals dramatic click-through disparity

The competitive dynamics between traditional search and AI chat interfaces became clearer this week. PPC Land reported on February 14 that ChatGPT handles 12% of Google's search volume but sends 190 times less traffic to websites, with a click-through rate 96% lower than Google's search engine. The analysis reveals fundamental differences in how conversational AI surfaces information compared to traditional search results pages.

ChatGPT's contained information delivery—providing answers within the interface rather than directing users to source websites—threatens the traffic-based business models supporting most online publishers. This dynamic intensifies concerns about AI systems extracting publisher content value without providing commensurate compensation or attribution.

Microsoft attempted to address these concerns by introducing the AI Performance dashboard in Bing Webmaster Tools on February 14. The dashboard shows publishers citation data from Copilot and AI-generated answers for the first time, offering visibility into how Microsoft's AI systems reference their content. Microsoft also released updates on February 15 explaining how grounding technology powers nearly every major AI assistant, introducing new Bing Webmaster Tools features for Generative Engine Optimization visibility.

Microsoft published an updated AI marketer's guide on February 15 with technical explanations of how large language models surface brands through paid placements and organic visibility strategies, attempting to demystify the mechanisms determining brand prominence in AI-powered search experiences.

Programmatic advertising evolves toward agentic infrastructure

The advertising technology infrastructure supporting these AI experiences continues evolving. Index Exchange CEO Andrew Casale detailed on February 15 how agentic sell-side decisioning moves intelligence upstream in programmatic advertising, eliminating cloud tax while enabling real-time optimization at the impression level.

The shift toward impression-level AI represents programmatic advertising's response to increasing complexity and the need for faster, more precise targeting decisions. Casale's framework positions autonomous decisioning as the next phase of programmatic evolution, moving beyond static rules toward systems capable of learning and adapting in real-time.

Index Exchange also integrated xpln.ai's predictive attention metrics directly into its supply-side platform on February 12, enabling programmatic buyers to optimize campaigns based on eye-tracking data before placing bids. The integration represents growing emphasis on attention metrics as supplements to traditional viewability and completion rate measurements.

Generative Engine Optimization emerged as a distinct discipline this week. AdExchanger reported on February 11 that Evertune announced functionality letting advertisers run programmatic campaigns directly on sites and pages most frequently cited by AI chatbots. The capability includes partnerships with The Trade Desk on the buy side and Index Exchange for ad sales, creating a bridge between traditional programmatic infrastructure and emerging AI citation patterns.

The GEO category focuses on influencing how AI models cite brands, through earned media generation and data optimization. Evertune's approach recognizes that AI citation represents a new form of distribution requiring distinct optimization strategies beyond traditional SEO and paid search.

Out-of-home advertising receives taxonomy update and major acquisition

The Out of Home Advertising Association of America introduced an updated OpenOOH venue taxonomy on February 10, replacing generic categories like "retail" or "transit" with granular subcategories enabling programmatic buyers to understand exact inventory characteristics before bidding. The OAAA folded its OpenOOH Taxonomy Working Group into a permanent OAAA Taxonomy Committee responsible for maintaining and developing the standard.

The taxonomy update arrived days before Mubadala Capital and TWG Global announced they will acquire Clear Channel Outdoor for $6.2 billion at $2.43 per share on February 11. The transaction represents a 71% premium over previous trading prices and ranks among the advertising industry's largest leveraged buyouts, signaling sovereign wealth confidence in out-of-home advertising's programmatic transformation and digital upgrade trajectory.

Retail media faces fragmentation pressures and client losses

Retail media networks confronted challenges this week despite continued growth projections. Criteo reported on February 14 that it faces a $75 million revenue headwind in 2026 after major retailers reduced managed services spending. The client cuts erase approximately one year of growth, forcing Criteo to recalibrate its retail media expansion strategy.

CEO Megan Clarken acknowledged during the earnings call that several large retail partners chose to bring more capabilities in-house rather than relying on Criteo's managed services. The shift reflects broader industry trends toward retailer self-sufficiency in advertising operations as platforms mature and internal expertise develops.

Separately, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS recommended shareholders approve Criteo's Luxembourg redomiciliation before the February 27 vote on February 14. The cross-border conversion would move Criteo's legal domicile from France to Luxembourg, potentially improving operational flexibility and corporate governance structures.

AppLovin demonstrates AI-powered advertising profitability

Mobile advertising platform AppLovin provided a counterpoint to retail media struggles. The company reported Q4 2025 earnings of $3.24 per share on $1.66 billion revenue with 84% EBITDA margins on February 14, demonstrating what executives called a rare combination of hyper-growth and profitability powered by AI-driven advertising models.

The 66% revenue surge year-over-year stems from AppLovin's AXON advertising engine, which uses machine learning to match advertisers with high-value users across its mobile gaming network. The technology's effectiveness attracted increased spending from gaming companies seeking efficient user acquisition at scale.

CEO Adam Foroughi emphasized during the earnings call that AppLovin's AI models continuously improve through exposure to billions of daily advertising events, creating a competitive moat that widens as the platform processes more data. The operational leverage inherent in AI-powered advertising enabled AppLovin to achieve industry-leading margins while sustaining rapid growth.

Reddit advertising surges despite stock price decline

Reddit reported $690 million in Q4 2025 advertising revenue on February 5, representing 75% year-over-year growth. The platform achieved its first $2 billion annual advertising revenue milestone, with 2025 total ad revenue reaching $2.1 billion—74% higher than 2024 performance.

Active advertiser count grew 75% year-over-year in Q4, demonstrating Reddit's success attracting new brands to its community-based advertising opportunities. However, the company's stock declined 38% over the preceding month despite these revenue gains, potentially due to insider selling activity and analyst concerns about small and midsize advertiser sustainability.

The disconnect between Reddit's advertising growth and stock performance mirrors broader market uncertainty about social platform valuations amid AI disruption and changing user engagement patterns.

IAB introduces AI disclosure framework and demands publisher compensation

The Interactive Advertising Bureau addressed AI transparency concerns by launching a framework on February 9 standardizing when AI usage in advertisements should be disclosed to consumers. The standards aim to establish consumer trust without creating "label fatigue," said Caroline Giegerich, VP of AI at the IAB, though significant questions remain about disclosure visibility and implementation consistency.

The framework provides advertisers with guidelines for identifying when generative AI tools used in content production require explicit disclosure versus when AI involvement can remain unstated. The standards attempt to balance transparency with practical advertising realities where AI tools increasingly augment human creative processes.

IAB CEO David Cohen demanded AI companies pay publishers for content used in training and inference during the IAB Annual Leadership Meeting on February 4 in Palm Desert, California. Cohen refuted criticisms that the trade organization has drifted from its publisher-focused roots, stating: "The health of the publisher community is critical to the health of our overall business. If we don't have publishers, we don't have content. What are we optimizing? What are we reading?"

The IAB also unveiled Project Eidos focused on measurement standardization, examining attribution, marketing mix modeling, and outcomes measurement in an AI-driven advertising environment where targeting increasingly focuses on autonomous agents rather than individual humans.

Super Bowl LX advertising generates mixed reception and record viewership

Super Bowl LX delivered complex results for advertisers. NBCUniversal reported the game averaged 125 million viewers on February 10, making it the second most-watched Super Bowl ever despite a relatively uneventful contest where the Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 29-13. The viewership figure represents a decline of approximately 2.8 million from 2025's record.

Bad Bunny's halftime performance averaged 128.2 million viewers between 8:15 and 8:30 PM ET, down from Kendrick Lamar's 133.5 million in 2025 but generating record social media engagement. Total social consumption of the halftime show reached four billion views in the first 24 hours, up 137% year-over-year according to Ripple Analytics. Duolingo reported on February 9 that the all-Spanish performance drove significant spikes in Spanish language learning activity on its platform.

Advertising reception proved contentious. Adweek documented on February 9 that viewers expressed particular frustration with the concentration of AI advertising, with 23% of commercials promoting AI companies or AI-related services. Social media users criticized what they perceived as tone-deaf messaging around autonomous AI decision-making, with Amazon's ad featuring AI making purchases without human approval generating especially negative reactions given widespread concerns about AI autonomy.

Ring's surveillance-focused advertising and Coinbase's cryptocurrency spot also faced harsh criticism as Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant value declines in preceding weeks. Lay's executed a QR code campaign on February 9 promising to deliver 100,000 bags of chips from potato to doorstep in under 72 hours, with all inventory claimed in less than 20 minutes—some regions exhausting supply in just five minutes.

Creator economy expands Super Bowl presence amid platform changes

Brands increased creator activations at Super Bowl LX beyond previous years according to Digiday's February 13 reporting. Jason Tartick, founder and CEO of Rewired Talent Management, stated: "The creator activations and IRL experiences have deeply evolved." The NFL's decision to move the Pro Bowl closer to the Super Bowl extended the event week, creating additional opportunities for brand-creator partnerships.

The creator economy expansion occurs amid significant platform changes. YouTube CEO Neal Mohan outlined changes affecting creators in 2026 on January 21, according to Digiday's February 4 analysis. The platform will introduce AI tools allowing creators to make Shorts using their own likeness and produce games and music through text prompts, while cracking down on AI-generated content lacking human creative direction.

YouTube plans to offer creators tools to modify baked-in advertisements embedded directly into videos, enabling them to negotiate new deals or renegotiate existing agreements and swap advertisements into existing content. The platform will also update YouTube Shopping offerings to allow in-app purchases rather than redirecting to external stores, mimicking TikTok Shop's approach and reducing creator dependence on advertising revenue alone.

Digiday reported on December 5 that the U.S. creator economy advertising spend is projected to reach $43.9 billion in 2026, up from $37.1 billion in 2025 according to IAB data. The bulk of growth comes from paid amplification of creator content, with $13.2 billion expected from social media amplification (up 48% from $8.9 billion) and $11.1 billion from amplification beyond social platforms (up 56% from $7.1 billion).

Publishers see Q4 advertising gains while planning beyond search dependence

Publishers experienced strong Q4 2025 advertising revenue according to Digiday's February 5 Media Briefing, buoyed by improved economic stability and renewed advertiser confidence after months of hesitation. The late-year momentum carried into early 2026 forecasts, generating cautious optimism tempered by traffic erosion, volatile programmatic markets, and AI-driven shifts in content discovery.

People Inc. CEO Neil Vogel highlighted the company's InStyle fashion franchise "The Intern" during earnings calls, noting advertisers pay between $500,000 and $700,000 to sponsor the show despite minimal production costs. Vogel described this model as "the future" with "strong growth from non-session-based revenue streams led by our growth on all platform audiences and D/Cipher," the company's in-house contextual ad tech platform.

The publisher strategy reflects industry-wide shifts from search traffic dependence toward diversified revenue streams including social video, commerce integrations, and proprietary advertising technology. Traffic from Google and other platforms continues declining, forcing publishers to prove relevance and value beyond raw reach numbers.

Spotify engineers stop manual coding as AI transforms development

Spotify reported on February 13 that its developers have used Claude AI exclusively for coding since December 2025, eliminating manual programming while the streaming platform achieved record metrics of 751 million users and €701 million operating income in Q4 2025.

The development workflow transformation represents one of the most aggressive AI adoption strategies among major technology platforms, with entire engineering teams relying on AI-generated code for production systems. Spotify executives emphasized that AI coding tools enabled the company to maintain development velocity while expanding features and improving platform stability.

However, Anthropic research released on February 13 revealed AI coding assistance reduces quiz scores by 17% even as developers complete tasks faster, challenging assumptions about skill development in AI-augmented workplaces. The research suggests productivity gains may come at the cost of fundamental skill acquisition, potentially creating long-term expertise deficits.

Privacy regulation developments span multiple jurisdictions

Privacy regulation evolved across multiple jurisdictions this week. California Attorney General announced a $2.75 million settlement with Disney on February 12 over CCPA violations affecting opt-out requests across Disney+ and Hulu streaming platforms. The settlement addresses failures in privacy control implementation that prevented users from exercising data sale opt-out rights.

Europe's Court of Justice ruled on February 14 that companies can directly challenge European Data Protection Board binding decisions, overturning lower court precedent and potentially reshaping GDPR enforcement across the European Union. The decision provides data controllers with new mechanisms to contest regulatory determinations without first exhausting national-level remedies.

European data protection authorities strongly opposed proposed GDPR modifications in the Digital Omnibus package on February 13, warning the changes would weaken privacy rights rather than simplify compliance. The regulatory pushback suggests significant amendments before any GDPR modifications receive approval.

The European Data Protection Supervisor established a binding framework on February 13 requiring prior consent for dismissing data protection officers across EU institutions, strengthening protections for privacy compliance personnel.

India mandated on February 11 that social media platforms remove unlawful content within three hours, down from 36 hours, creating compliance challenges for Meta, Google, and X operating in the world's most populous democracy.

Advertising spend forecasts show moderated growth expectations

Media spending projections for 2026 show moderated growth according to Digiday's January 8 analysis of multiple forecasting sources. Madison & Wall consultancy principal Brian Wieser projects U.S. advertising revenue will grow 6.6% in 2026 (excluding political advertising), following an 11% surge in 2025 that managing director Luke Stillman termed "one of the best years we have on record."

WPP's Business Intelligence unit predicts 7.4% growth while Morgan Stanley analysts forecast 10% expansion in 2026. The variance reflects differing assumptions about economic stability, political advertising impact from midterm elections, and AI investment patterns across advertiser categories.

Wieser cautioned: "We are mindful of a lot of concerns that we have, and anyone should have about reasons why the economy could go over the cliff. It hasn't happened yet—that doesn't mean it won't. Risks are elevated on so many levels, and yet the current environment is good despite—not because of—the current economic policies we see in the United States."

Forrester research asking 1,000 marketing professionals about their top challenges found 33% cited measuring marketing ROI as their primary concern, while 24% identified budget constraints as the second biggest challenge. The emphasis on measurement reflects increasing pressure to justify marketing expenditures amid economic uncertainty and AI-driven efficiency expectations.

Retail and commerce developments signal infrastructure shifts

Amazon made several operational changes affecting sellers and consumers. The company announced on February 15 that industry speculation points to June 23-26, 2026 timing for Prime Day, shifting the promotional event to redistribute revenue across fiscal quarters. Amazon will require resellers to apply Amazon-specific labels on all FBA inventory starting March 31, 2026, ending manufacturer barcode eligibility.

Amazon Pharmacy will nearly double its geographic reach for same-day medication delivery by the end of 2026 according to February 14 announcements, adding nearly 2,000 cities and towns to address growing medication access challenges across the United States.

Consumer behavior analysis published February 13 revealed clicks surged 2% while transactions fell 5% across 2,300 U.S. retail brands in 2025, signaling fundamental changes in purchase journeys. Consumers researched extensively but purchased selectively, potentially reflecting economic caution or increased price comparison shopping enabled by digital tools.

Technology infrastructure investments continue despite market uncertainty

Meta announced construction of a 1-gigawatt data center campus in Lebanon, Indiana on February 15, representing over $10 billion in infrastructure investment including commitments for 4,000 construction jobs and 300 operational positions. The facility will support Meta's artificial intelligence expansion and increasing computational demands from AI-powered features across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Dentsu abandoned plans to sell its international operations on February 13 while naming Takeshi Sano as global CEO after recording a $2.18 billion loss driven by goodwill impairment charges. The strategic reversal suggests challenges in separating international operations from Japanese core business while maintaining operational coherence.

This week's developments illustrate digital advertising's fundamental transformation as AI systems reshape content creation, distribution, and monetization across platforms. The tension between AI efficiency and human expertise, between automated optimization and creative judgment, between traffic extraction and fair compensation defines the industry's current trajectory. Publishers, platforms, and advertisers navigate this transformation while regulators struggle to establish frameworks balancing innovation with consumer protection and competitive fairness.


Saturday, February 14, 2026

Epstein sent this to himself. Please help me identify who wrote this story and if it was ever published anywhere.

Could be journalist Michael Wolff, if I had to make a guess. But I truly have no clue. 

I saw him do an interview about what it was like being at Epstein’s house and he mentioned the stuffed elephant. This story mentions the elephant also. (Reason Epstein had it and liked it was creepy so that stuck out to me) Hardly dots to connect though. 

I found this email extraordinarily interesting. I would love to know who wrote it. It’s honestly such an ass-kiss piece it wouldn’t surprise me if Epstein wrote it himself. 

I’m going to add some, but not all. If you want to read the entire thing:

https://jmail.world/thread/HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023627

>Once I arrived for a visit and found several police cars blocking the street and thought the worst—they'd come for him. But it was a massive security detail for a well known head of state who had come for tea.

>We met several years before he became arguably the world's most notorious sex offender. In 2002, his plane, a meticulously appointed 727, ferried a group of people to the TED conference in Monterey. He was the mysterious and peculiarly gracious host arriving after everyone had boarded: tanned, relaxed, attentive, soliciting every guest's story and views, and accompanied by three young women not his daughters, witty, poised, helpful, and beautiful—out of a men's magazine fantasy of the luxe life.

>Google founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, with their company rising into the stratosphere, came out to see his plane on the Monterey tarmac and, with a few other Googlers, literally ran whooping from one end of the plane to the other. Then, sitting in the plane's plush living room, they described, in what I could not be sure was a put-on or entrepreneurial brainstorm, the future of search.

>Since that trip, and through his travails, I have often been invited to his house to participate in the conversations of the newest ideas that often take place there.

>Pictures on the table have Jeffrey and prime minister, princes, leading scientists. with fidel castro next to the photo with pope, I guess his attempt at levity.

>These meetings, and this lifestyle, have somehow stayed private or secret—or apart—not out of any formal or stated restrictions, but because, in some sense, it would be very hard to explain just what you're doing there with a well known sex offender in a mouth dropping home flaunting all moderation.

>And yet, defying controversy, and tolerating his societal tone deafness—or shy attitude toward the zeitgeist—still so many come. Gladly. Willingly. Feeling that his invitation is frankly quite an extraordinary privilege.

>As part of a many friends encouraged effort to get "out in front" of the notice that might be expected when it was revealed the number and wide diversity of the most rarified thinkers of our generation that come to visit Epstein agreed to a limited on-the-record conversation with me.

>He recounts a dinner he had two nights before. The scene is, like much of what he does, a conspiracy theorist's fantasy—the six men at this dinner, all technology entrepreneurs, representing, together, over a hundred billion dollars and now trying to figure out how to use their resources in order to help shape the world.

>Missions to Mars, age reversal. understanding the big bang, teleportation, Artificial Intelligence and Synthetic Biology are this weeks topics.

>Epstein's role in this discussion of the private allotment of what is in fact a decent fraction of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is not only as an experienced philanthropist himself but as a sort of adviser or brain—the "rich whisperer"—making him, in addition to his own vast wealth ( two private islands, one for guests ), arguably among the most influential people you've only heard of for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with his influence.

**hi hey it’s me, OP. Need to chime in. “THE RICH WHISPERER” that’s quite a title. And two islands, not just one? Am I the only person who didn’t know there were two?**

>In fact, the life in the house, without wife or children or conventional domestic demeanor, rather conforms to the scripted fantasies: somewhere between Daddy Warbucks and Eyes Wide Shut. There is indeed a group of young women—in their twenties and thirties—who act as Epstein's support staff and companions. Some have worked for him for many years, marrying, having children, and continuing as part of his business and household infrastructure. One woman, on an afternoon when I was there, had just returned from an around-the-world honeymoon that Epstein had arranged for her. Some are, or may have been, his romantic interests. One former girlfriend, Eva Andersson Dubin, a Swedish model and Miss Universe finalist whom Epstein has known for more than thirty years, became one of new yorks top doctors—Epstein helped finance her medical school education —She married hedge funder Glen Dubin. Together they financed the Dubin Breast Center at Mount Sinai Hospital.

>Epstein will sometimes move a meeting in his dining room outside to Central park—his idea of going out to lunch is a Sabrett's hot dog—with the various young women in the house acting as the accompanying entourage, as though something out of an 18th-century French court.

>But the Hefnerian like attitude can also at the flash turn to sharply honed financial discussion. The highly poised young women in a mansion on the Upper East Side with various office responsibilities remind me of the various uptown art galleries in the surrounding neighborhood. They mingle freely with his hyper powerful guests, not so much as hostesses—or, in tabloid language, harem-like “sex slaves” but as attentive colleagues (which, of course, might be regarded by some as having its own fetish-like attraction).

>The Epstein house/office is, by careful design, exclusive and clubby, part hang out, part secret society. Along with the fact that, even after his jail term, the rich and powerful have continued to so eagerly solicit him, it's also notable in the fixed hierarchy of who comes to whose turf, that, when they want to see Epstein, they tend to come to him. He's created a world and you enter it. Many arrive in weekend clothes. or as one world leader said, Ah here i can come in sweat clothes.

>In effect: the outside world comes to Epstein's and he eagerly solicits reports. It's a real time newspaper, or the news you don't read in a newspaper, market movements before they occur, geopolitics with the ultimate decision makers at the table, the health and personal eccentricities of some world leaders, discussions in hushed tones of the next high level government appointments soon to be announced.

>It's Sunday lunch—in his schedule from a week last fall—with Gates, Mort Zuckerman, the real estate billionaire and owner of the Daily News, and Peter Thiel, the PayPal co-founder and early Facebook investor. That evening its Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim, the foreign minister of Qatar. Hamad lives across the street in a similarly furnished house—he and Epstein have the same decorator.

>Next morning, Epstein is joined for breakfast in the dining room by the lawyer Reid Weingarten, who's represented, among other fat cats in trouble, Worldcom's Bernie Ebbers and Goldman Sachs's Lloyd Blankfein. Weingarten, hoarse with a cold, is still lamenting his failed defense of former Connecticut Governor John Rowland. ( later to be overturned on appeal ) After a blow-by-blow of the trial, they discuss the Qatarian's visit—Epstein served chocolate made with specialy chosen pistachios grown on the Sheikh's farm—and speculate about who actually controls ISIS, with Weingarten arguing that the Turks are not getting enough scrutiny. Weingarten represents Gulen, the U.S. target of the Turks, There is, in Epstein's dining room, always an alternative version of world events.

>Why,” I ask Weingarten, when Epstein briefly steps out of the room, “do so many people keep coming back here, everything considered."

>”Why we camp out here? I guess because there's truly no other place like it."

>Epstein summons in the next person cooling his heels in the ante-room. It's a young man named Brock Pierce, an active investor" in Bitcoin and the programmable currency space.

>After a bit, Epstein invites his next appointment to join them: Larry Summers, the former treasury secretary and President of Harvard, off Diet Coke, digs deep into the Sheikh Hamad chocolates, then focuses in on the Bitcoin investor.

>That evening, in the Epstein dining room (he seems rarely to use the rest of the house's 50,000 square feet), there is a small cocktail party, which includes the former Prime Minister of Australian, Kevin Rudd, and Thorbjørn Jagland, the head of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, who offers an affable, but generally scathing, critique of U.S. diplomacy (and a brief defense of Obama's Peace Prize award) and to whom Epstein offers a ride back to Europe on his jet.

>The next morning, it's Ehud Barack, the former Israeli Prime Minister, for breakfast. Barack is, over his omelet, able to defend both Obama and Putin. Then a high ranking official from the Obama White House, whose name I am asked not to use. There follows the former head of the UN Security Council, Hardeep Purie, and then head of the central bank of Kazakhstan, Kairat Kelimbetov. Then Nathan Myhrvold the former chief technology office at Microsoft. Then Martin Nowak, a Professor of Biology and Mathematics and Director of the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics at Harvard, the institute that Epstein has funded with $30 million. Part of Nowak's research has to do with trying to “describe cancer mathematically." (Epstein preempts Nowak's explanation: "Think of cancer the same way as you think of a terrorist group. The NSA has been able to thwart a great number of terrorism acts by intercepting communication signals from one terrorist to another. That same dynamic, a form of signal intelligence, of finding a terrorist in Europe, can be used to intercept communication between cancer sells. Cancer cells merely communicate in protean code rather than electronic code. If you can decode what the signals are saying you can jam those signal between terrorist calls—essentially wipe out their cell phones. Likewise if you can decode biological signals you can jam them too, that's the holy grail.")

>Then Richard Axel, a Nobel prize winner in physiology. Then Ron Baron who has $26 billion under management in his Baron Fund. Then Josh Harris, the co-founder of Apollo Global Management ($164 billion under management) and owner of the New Jersey Devils and the Philadelphia 76ers.

>The question is why, in the face of such public flogging , with the paparazzi so near, do the high and might still come?

>What goes on at Epstein's house might seem just to confirm everyone's worst fears about power and the powerful: it's all insider stuff. But the conversations at Epstein's are the conversations, I suspect, that rich men dream of, but in the real world, such a buttoned-down and agenda-driven place, are actually hard to have.

>there is a stuffed baby elephant in his living room—that is, the elephant in the room. (Epstein says too it's a reminder that elephants have 23 copies of cancer tumor suppressor genes and humans have only.

>Epstein often tells his middle class to riches tale: born in 1953 in Coney Island, father worked for the city's Parks Department, mother a housewife.

>The captain of the math team at Lafayette High school in Bensonhurst, he went on to Cooper Union where the tuition is free. He dropped out after two years. Without a college degree, an unsolved mystery, he got a job teaching math and physics at Dalton in 1974.

>Punch Sulzberger, the publisher of the New York Times, and a Dalton father at the time, tried to recruit Epstein to come to the Times.

>He soon became the protégée of Jimmy Cayne (also hired by Ace Greenberg on a whim—he met him in a bridge game), who would go on to run Bear and to lose his fortune in Bear's 2006 collapse). Epstein's leave-taking or ouster from Bear was the result of politics, envy, overreaching, or a securities violation, or...unclear. But, no matter, when he left in 1982 he took with him billionaire clients, including Marvin Davis, a real estate developer who owns Twentieth Century Fox, and Herb Seigel, a major media investor in the 1980s. At this point, Epstein was dating Morgan Fairchild, a television star in the new mega-rich-family soap operas, Dallas and Falcon Crest.

>Thirty-year-old Epstein was living a Lifestyle of the Rich and Famous (he befriended the show's star, Robin Leach), at English shooting parties and country estates with Saturday night black tie dinners, where he was meeting the over-the-top families of Europe.

>For a period, one part of his activities, he says, was recovering looted monies. Then, in his telling, he was representing a series of vastly wealthy people and families—helping them to navigate the ambitions of their wealth.

>In 1994, just at the moment when Prince Charles was on television acknowledging his love for Camilla Parker Bowles, Jeffrey Epstein was sitting with his arm around Princess Diana at a dinner at the Serpentine Galley in London (Diana wearing her “revenge” dress that evening). Graydon Carter, in his second year as editor of Vanity Fair, was also at the dinner.

>He joined the board of Rockefeller University. And then he was suddenly on the Trilateral commission, that cabal of business people who are fancied by some conspiracy buffs, as the group running the world. He bought, from his client Limited Founder Les Wexner, the largest private house in Manhattan. He bought an airplane. Then another. He expanded his holdings in New Mexico. He began a Xanadu-like refurbishment of his Caribbean Island and then bought the neighboring island for guests.

>He befriended Bill Clinton in his new after-office life—and that would prove to be quite the fatal pairing.

>In the last days of my interviews with Epstein, he was called by a particular world-stage individual, among the richest and most powerful—proudly louche himself—who, feeling out of his depth in a world of crashing oil prices and wild currency fluctuation, had come to believe he might benefit from some private tutoring. Epstein welcomed him to the club.


Bitcoin vs Stocks Investment Debate: Trade Both With Zero Fees on Phemex TokenFiesta Event

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Michael Burry vs Amit

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Friday, February 13, 2026

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (02/13/2026)

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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (02/13/2026)

Top Story

US January Inflation Comes in Below Expectations as CPI Rises 2.4% Year-Over-Year

US consumer prices rose 0.2% monthly in January, below the 0.3% forecast, while annual inflation reached 2.4%, under the expected 2.5%. Core CPI met expectations at 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually. Gold prices gained on the softer-than-expected inflation data.

Company News

UBS Group Ag (UBS)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -0.57%

5D Change: -4.32%

News Volume: 127

Unusual Volume Factor: 1x

UBS Issues Wave of Rating Changes Across Sectors as Analysts Adjust Price Targets and Outlook

UBS conducted extensive coverage adjustments on February 13, issuing rating changes and price target revisions across multiple sectors. The firm upgraded Rivian Automotive from Sell to Neutral, citing balanced risk-reward dynamics and projecting 14 percent upside with a price target of $16. The electric vehicle maker received concurrent upgrades from several other firms including Deutsche Bank’s move to Buy. In the utilities sector, UBS downgraded both Edison International and Evergy from Buy to Neutral on valuation concerns and balanced outlook, while upgrading Xcel Energy from Neutral to Buy with 13 percent upside potential.

The firm maintained its constructive stance on logistics REITs while expressing caution on office and retail properties ahead of UK REIT earnings. Technology coverage saw mixed adjustments. UBS raised its Roku price target to $110 from $103, projecting 33 percent upside while maintaining a Neutral rating. Pinterest faced a significant price target reduction to $26 from $40 due to weak revenue outlook. The firm raised price targets on several tech names including Arista Networks to $177 and Applied Materials to $430, both maintaining Buy ratings.

In consumer and industrial sectors, UBS lowered Domino’s Pizza price target to $500 from $540 while maintaining Buy, and reduced Fortune Brands target to $70 from $79. The firm raised targets on US Foods to $117 and Generac to $270, both with Buy ratings. UBS Wealth Management separately set a year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 7,700, expressing confidence in AI-driven market momentum despite near-term volatility. The firm noted retail investors are returning to Big Tech, with $197 million flowing into the Magnificent Seven stocks on Wednesday alone. In legal news, UBS was ordered to pay $5.5 million to a former client who is a prominent real estate broker.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 0.09%

5D Change: -2.52%

News Volume: 129

Unusual Volume Factor: 2x

Goldman Sachs Chief Legal Officer Resigns Over Epstein Ties as Bank Navigates Market Volatility and Crypto Investments

Goldman Sachs’ top lawyer Kathryn Ruemmler resigned following revelations in Justice Department documents showing she accepted gifts from convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, including a $9,350 handbag, and referred to him as “older brother” and “Uncle Jeffrey” in emails. CEO David Solomon told CNBC he “reluctantly accepted” her resignation, noting the controversy made it difficult for her to execute her responsibilities effectively. The resignation came as Goldman Sachs shares plunged over 5% Thursday alongside other major banks including JPMorgan and Citigroup during a broader market rout driven by AI-related concerns.

Despite the turbulence, Solomon characterized the economic landscape for 2026 as “quite good” with a “constructive environment,” though he expressed concern about continued deficit levels. Goldman disclosed significant cryptocurrency positions, revealing a $920 million Bitcoin bet despite the recent market crash and a $152 million position in XRP, representing 14% of the XRP ETF.

The bank also participated in institutional crypto activity alongside Jane Street in driving XRP ETF inflows. On monetary policy, Goldman economists forecast two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected in June. The bank projected January core CPI at 0.33% versus consensus of 0.3%. Some Goldman analysts see potential for four rate cuts depending on labor market conditions. Goldman issued multiple analyst calls, upgrading Upstart from Sell to Neutral and raising price targets on Arista Networks, Applied Materials, and Stanley Black & Decker while downgrading BB Seguridade to Neutral.

The firm expects “very large IPOs, unprecedented in size” this year and anticipates NVIDIA will deliver a beat-and-raise quarter. The bank also selected ad platform Moloco alongside JPMorgan to lead an upcoming IPO and created a new custom basket targeting software stocks perceived as insulated from AI disruption.

Barclays Plc (BCS)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -0.94%

5D Change: -4.22%

News Volume: 137

Unusual Volume Factor: 2x

Barclays Issues Sweeping Price Target Adjustments Amid AI Selloff Warning and Active Portfolio Repositioning

Barclays analysts warned that the AI-driven market selloff may remain unstoppable in the near term, with investors in a “sell first, think later” mode. Analyst Emmanuel Cau noted that while markets remain broadly resilient, fears of AI disruption are driving sharp sector rotations and could continue pressuring valuations. The bank executed extensive portfolio adjustments across multiple sectors. In technology, Barclays raised Applied Materials’ price target to $450 from $360, projecting 37% upside, while upgrading Zscaler to Overweight despite lowering its price target.

The firm also raised targets on Arista Networks and Tower Semiconductor. However, AI concerns prompted significant cuts to software names, with Tyler Technologies slashed to $410 from $715 and Procore reduced to $65 from $90. In retail, Barclays downgraded H&M to Underweight from Overweight on weak sales growth concerns, while downgrading Fortune Brands on 2026 outlook worries.

The bank raised price targets on consumer names including Crocs and Kraft Heinz. Healthcare saw mixed moves, with Barclays reinstating Medtronic coverage at Overweight with a $116 target, citing strong heart device growth prospects. The firm also highlighted Vertex Pharma’s renal pipeline as a major growth driver while raising Tenet Healthcare’s target to $257. In cryptocurrency exposure, Coinbase’s price target was cut nearly in half to $148 from $258, though Barclays still sees 5% upside.

Travel and hospitality names including Expedia, Copa Holdings, and Hyatt received raised targets. RBC Capital separately raised its Barclays bank stock price target to 550 pence from 525 pence, maintaining an Outperform rating as the bank pledges enhanced shareholder returns.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 8.08%

5D Change: 10.08%

Applied Materials Surges 13% on Strong Earnings and Bullish AI-Driven Forecast

Applied Materials shares jumped over 13% on February 13, 2026, reaching an all-time high of $368.25 after the chipmaking equipment manufacturer reported better-than-expected Q1 2026 earnings and issued an upbeat revenue forecast. The rally was driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure and chipmaking tools, with CEO Gary Dickerson predicting growth momentum will continue through 2027, when he expects global semiconductor industry revenues to reach $1 trillion.

The strong results prompted a wave of analyst upgrades and price target increases across Wall Street. Summit Insights upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy, while Craig-Hallum raised its rating to Buy from Hold. KGI Securities upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, citing 29% upside potential. Multiple firms raised price targets to $450, including Barclays, TD Cowen, KeyBanc, Deutsche Bank, and Stifel. Cantor Fitzgerald set the highest target at $470, while other firms including Wells Fargo, Needham, RBC Capital, UBS, Mizuho, and Bernstein also increased their targets.

The company’s performance stood out as a bright spot amid broader market concerns about AI valuations, with analysts characterizing Applied Materials as a shelter from AI fears. The earnings beat was attributed to surging AI demand driving chipmaking tool orders and memory shortages supporting equipment sales. Applied Materials was among the day’s most active movers in premarket and regular trading, appearing alongside other notable stocks including Arista Networks, which also posted strong results.

The stock’s performance came as markets digested a CPI inflation report showing inflation falling to 2.4%, a four-year low, though broader indices remained under pressure with the Nasdaq heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline.

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 4.65%

5D Change: -0.66%

Airbnb Surges on Strong Q4 Results and Optimistic 2026 Outlook as Analysts Upgrade Stock

Airbnb shares jumped 6.4% in premarket trading February 13 after the company reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst estimates and issued upbeat guidance for 2026. The vacation rental platform cited resilient global travel demand and growing adoption of its flexible payment and booking options as key drivers of accelerating bookings growth.

The strong results prompted a wave of analyst upgrades. Deutsche Bank elevated Airbnb from Hold to Buy, projecting 33% upside, while Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to Outperform with a 25% upside target. TD Cowen raised its price target to $160, maintaining a Buy rating. BMO Capital and Wells Fargo also increased their targets, though Wells Fargo maintained a Hold rating. Not all analysts were uniformly bullish—Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price targets, citing valuation concerns. CEO Brian Chesky expressed confidence that artificial intelligence represents “the best thing to happen to Airbnb,” suggesting the company views AI as an opportunity rather than a competitive threat.

Analysts noted Airbnb’s product improvements and strategic expansions as supporting continued momentum. Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted that healthy demand should fuel faster growth throughout 2026, helping Airbnb outperform in what analysts described as a challenging year for online travel stocks overall.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 16.46%

5D Change: -0.46%

Coinbase Stock Surges 15% Despite Q4 Miss as Analysts Slash Targets but Maintain Bullish Outlook

Coinbase Global shares jumped over 15% following fourth-quarter results that missed revenue and profit estimates amid softer crypto trading volumes. The company announced a $2 billion stock buyback program and signaled expansion of its Everything Exchange platform, highlighting diversified revenue growth from subscription services. CEO Brian Armstrong executed a $550 million stock sale through a pre-arranged trading plan.

Wall Street analysts broadly reduced price targets, with cuts ranging from Barclays’ $148 to H.C. Wainwright’s maintained $350, though most firms retained buy ratings. BTIG, Canaccord Genuity, and Deutsche Bank project upside potential between 57% and 113%. Analysts cited improving regulatory outlook, revenue diversification beyond transaction fees, and strategic buybacks as reasons for optimism despite near-term margin pressures in the softer crypto market environment.

Macro Events

Trump Administration Moves to Scale Back Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

The Trump administration is reassessing its metals tariff regime, planning to ease some steel and aluminum duties imposed last summer at rates up to 50%. Officials are working to narrow the scope of these tariffs, particularly for downstream products and goods that companies find difficult to calculate, amid concerns over affordability and implementation challenges. Separately, the Treasury Department released interim rules enforcing provisions in Trump's tax law that restrict clean energy tax credits for companies with excessive China-linked subsidies.

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Trump Announces Venezuela Oil Sanctions Waiver, Plans Future Visit

US waives Venezuela oil sanctions as President Trump emphasizes America's unique refining capacity for Venezuelan crude. Trump announced plans to visit Venezuela but provided no timeline for the trip.

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Trump Administration Sees Key Departures as Trade Policy Shifts and Courts Block Health Cuts

The Trump administration experienced significant personnel changes as Justice Department antitrust chief Gail Slater resigned after less than a year, marking the highest-profile casualty in internal disputes over competition enforcement. Goldman Sachs general counsel Kathy Ruemmler also stepped down following revelations of her ties to Jeffrey Epstein. On trade, the administration finalized a reciprocal agreement with Taiwan establishing a 15% US tariff rate while Taiwan committed to eliminating or reducing tariffs on American goods. Separately, Trump plans to scale back steel and aluminum tariffs, according to the Financial Times. A federal judge in Chicago temporarily blocked $600 million in public health grant cuts to four Democratic-led states. Meanwhile, European leaders are reconsidering nuclear weapons strategy following US policy shifts.

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Supreme Court Sets February Opinion Days as Tariff Ruling Awaited

The US Supreme Court has scheduled opinion days for February 20, 24, and 25, with markets watching for a potential ruling on a pending tariff case that could impact trade policy.

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U.S. Inflation Falls to 2.4%, Four-Year Low Triggers Mixed Market Response

January's Consumer Price Index dropped to 2.4%, marking a four-year low and exceeding market expectations for cooling inflation. The Dow Jones slipped despite the favorable data, while major indices showed mixed movements. Bitcoin rose as crypto traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. DraftKings shares plunged following earnings results, while Applied Materials jumped, highlighting divergent sector performance amid the inflation news.

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U.S. Inflation Drops to Four-Year Low as Markets Weigh Fed Rate Cut Prospects

U.S. CPI inflation fell to 2.4%, a four-year low, with core CPI rising 0.3% in January as expected. The data triggered mixed market reactions, with Nasdaq futures falling amid AI-related concerns while Bitcoin gained on renewed rate cut speculation. Treasury yields dropped, with two-year notes hitting 3.40%, the lowest since October. Traders now price a 50% probability of a third Fed rate cut this year. The Dow slipped following the inflation report, while DraftKings shares plunged on disappointing earnings.

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Russia Cuts Key Rate to 15.5% as Economic Concerns Override Inflation Fight

Russia's central bank reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%, signaling additional cuts ahead as economic growth concerns take priority over inflation management.

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Geopolitics Events

Merz Declares End of Post-War Order, Proposes European Nuclear Shield

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced at the Munich Security Conference that the post-World War II international order has fundamentally changed, citing U.S. policy shifts under Donald Trump toward unilateralism. Merz revealed he has held discussions with French President Macron on nuclear deterrence and called for a European nuclear shield. While stating that U.S. claims to global leadership are disputed or squandered, Merz rejected calls to abandon the transatlantic partnership entirely. He emphasized that even the United States cannot act alone and appealed for repairing transatlantic trust while advocating for the alliance to evolve in response to current challenges.

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Pentagon Adds Major Chinese Tech Firms to Military List Then Withdraws Document

The Pentagon designated Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, COSCO, and Huawei as Chinese military companies operating in the US under Section 1260H. The designation sent Alibaba shares sharply lower. However, the Defense Department subsequently withdrew the list from the Federal Register. The US also proposed banning government agencies from using certain Chinese semiconductors. Companies on such lists can request removal through an appeals process.

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Trump Escalates Iran Pressure, Signals Regime Change Preference as Second Carrier Deployment Looms

President Trump intensified rhetoric toward Iran, stating regime change "could be the best thing that could happen" while announcing plans to deploy a second aircraft carrier to the region shortly. Trump told troops that "fear" serves as a powerful motivator in difficult negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program. The escalation comes as five Democratic senators questioned the administration's decision to lift sanctions on individuals previously accused of spreading surveillance technology used against Americans. Separately, the Department of Homeland Security faces an impending shutdown amid Trump's standoff with Democrats.

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Bangladesh Nationalist Party Secures Landslide Victory in Parliamentary Election

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won a decisive parliamentary majority, with political heir Tarique Rahman positioned to become Prime Minister. The victory marks a stunning reversal for the nation's progressive party, whose September gamble to coopt rivals backfired. The landslide is expected to restore political stability in Bangladesh.

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Trump Administration Unveils $38.3 Billion Immigration Detention Overhaul

The Trump administration announced a $38.3 billion plan to expand and remake the US immigration detention system, aiming to streamline operations and accelerate deportations. Meanwhile, a federal judge ordered the administration to facilitate a deported college student's return.

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Stock Markets Events

Market Divergence Widens as Median S&P 500 Stock Falls 11% From Peak

Broad market weakness intensified with the median S&P 500 stock now down 11% from its 52-week high, signaling significant divergence beneath headline indices. Nearly 200 stocks hit annual lows, including major names like DraftKings, Booking Holdings, and Hercules Capital. Wendy's reached its lowest point amid weak guidance, while Sanofi neared lows following leadership changes. Bright spots remained limited, with Merck and PCG touching 52-week highs.

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Nasdaq Heads for Fifth Consecutive Weekly Decline as Tech Selloff Continues

The Nasdaq fell 1.9% this week, tracking toward its fifth straight weekly loss, the longest streak since May 2022's seven-week decline. Technology stocks led the selloff, dragging the index lower while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remained relatively flat. The market wobbled despite February CPI data showing inflation cooled more than economists expected, with the Nasdaq opening down 0.2% while the S&P 500 held steady.

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Crypto Events

Coinbase Shares Rally Despite Missing Q4 Estimates as Investors See Bottom

Coinbase stock surged following weak fourth-quarter results that missed revenue and profit estimates amid a softer crypto market. The rally came as investors concluded negative factors were already priced in, with analysts maintaining buy ratings. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 index rose 2.0% to 1920.47, led by UNI and BCH gains exceeding 5%.

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Bitcoin Faces Pressure as ETF Outflows Mount and Key $60K Support Level Looms

Bitcoin slipped to $67,000, heading for its fourth consecutive weekly loss amid heavy selling pressure. ETFs recorded $523 million in combined outflows as bearish sentiment intensified. The critical $60,000 level has emerged as a potential liquidation trigger, with Deribit data showing concentrated put options below this threshold near the 200-week moving average. Despite U.S. inflation falling to a four-year low of 2.4% in January—which briefly lifted Bitcoin and renewed Fed rate cut speculation—the cryptocurrency faces headwinds from declining network activity and whale selling. Standard Chartered warned of possible downside toward $50,000, while market sentiment indicators flash extreme fear near current levels.

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Trump Media Files SEC Applications for Two Cryptocurrency ETFs

Trump Media's Truth Social Funds has filed with the SEC to launch two cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. The first ETF will track Bitcoin and Ethereum with Ether staking capabilities. The second, called the Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF, will focus on Cronos tokens with staking rewards. The filings mark a significant expansion into digital asset investment products.

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Corporate Actions Events

SpaceX Considers Dual-Class Share Structure for Planned IPO to Preserve Musk Control

SpaceX is weighing a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO that would grant Elon Musk super-voting power, allowing him to maintain control despite holding a minority stake. The approach mirrors governance models used by major technology companies and a strategy Musk previously proposed for Tesla.

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Oil And Gas Events

WTI Crude Tests $61 Support as Oversupply Concerns Drive Weekly Losses

WTI crude oil faces weekly declines amid oversupply fears and failed breakout attempts, testing key $61 support levels. Natural gas weakens below $3.20, while pump prices edge toward $3 per gallon. Market focus shifts to Iran and OPEC+ supply outlooks, with Venezuela's natural gas reserves emerging as potential development target.

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OPEC+ Signals Likely Return to Oil Output Increases Starting April

OPEC+ members are leaning toward resuming oil production increases from April after pausing output hikes throughout the first quarter, according to sources. Eight key member nations see scope to restart supply increases, though no final decision has been made. Talks will continue ahead of the group's March 1 meeting, where delegates will finalize output plans for April and beyond.

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One Gas and Canadian Utilities Hit 52-Week Highs Amid Mixed Energy Sector Signals

One Gas Inc reached a 52-week high of $85.35, while AltaGas, Enbridge, and Hydro One also hit yearly peaks. Oil prices headed for weekly losses on Iran and OPEC+ uncertainty. U.S. rig count remained flat at 551, with oil drilling declining to 409 rigs while gas activity rose to 133.

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Venezuela's PDVSA Restricts Oil Sales to Licensed Companies Only

Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA now sells crude exclusively to individually licensed firms, sources report, as oil sales exceed $1 billion with funds no longer directed to Qatar account.

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Technology Events

FTC Intensifies Microsoft Investigation, Probing Cloud and AI Business Practices

The Federal Trade Commission has escalated its examination of Microsoft, interviewing competitors about the company's cloud computing and artificial intelligence operations, according to Bloomberg reports.

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Environment Events

ECB Fines Credit Agricole €7.6 Million for Climate Risk Management Failures

The European Central Bank penalized France's second-largest bank Credit Agricole €7.6 million for inadequately managing climate-related and environmental risks, marking regulatory enforcement on financial institutions' climate oversight obligations.

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Earnings Events

European Stocks Mixed as AI Concerns and Earnings Weigh on Markets

European equities opened lower and traded mixed following Wall Street's AI-driven sell-off, with investors digesting corporate earnings reports while awaiting key economic growth data.

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Moderna Exceeds Q4 Revenue Expectations Despite FDA Setback

Moderna surpassed fourth-quarter revenue estimates driven by stronger-than-expected COVID vaccine sales, though shares declined following an FDA regulatory setback announced alongside the earnings report.

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