Friday, February 13, 2026

The BTC Sell Cycle Just Happened So What Usually Comes Next?

The recent Bitcoin sell cycle just played out, and it clearly shook market confidence. Sharp downside moves always feel extreme in real time, especially when sentiment flips from optimism to fear very quickly.

But historically, Bitcoin tends to move in phases — expansion, distribution, correction, and then rebuilding. None of these phases feel comfortable while they’re happening. The correction phase is usually where leverage gets flushed, weaker hands exit, and narratives get reset.

This is often where longer-term structure starts forming again.

After major sell cycles in previous market periods, Bitcoin didn’t immediately reverse. More often, it entered a period of slower movement — sometimes sideways, sometimes grinding down — before momentum eventually returned. These phases usually feel “boring” or uncertain while they’re happening.

Right now, uncertainty is normal. Liquidity usually tightens after aggressive upside, and markets often take time to stabilize before any clear trend returns.

So the bigger discussion is about what typically follows a sell cycle.

Historically, major corrections have often acted as reset phases rather than cycle-ending events. Momentum, when it returned, usually came after patience was tested.

No one knows exact timing. No one knows exact bottoms.

But the pattern question is still worth asking:

Is this sell cycle just another reset before the next expansion phase… Or is this time structurally different?

Curious how others here are looking at this phase — recovery setup, extended consolidation, or something else?


Thursday, February 12, 2026

With the recent announcement, lets flashback to when Payday 2 became the REAL first John Wick game!

Let's go back a decade plus to October 22nd, 2014. Guardians of the Galaxy was pretty good in the summer, GTA V is coming out on PS4/Xbox One in less than a month, you have NO idea what a Bitcoin is, but you know it makes money somehow, and it's the seventh day of Crimefest 2014. So far, it's been good, a big preview to the big event this year (getting my boy and yours Hoxton out of jail), a revamp to the skills system and the introduction of the new Perk Deck cards, a couple livestreams, PD:TH for free for 24h, shit's been good and its looking to get better. So you sit down, see the community notification that the next day is up, see a suspiciously larger than predicted download start, and you go to the main page to see what new things are here.

...to watch a fuckin movie advert!?

Yes, long before the days of spin-off films and Netflix miniseries, the directorial debut of Chad Stalehski that starred a "considered washed up" Keanu Reeves, then best known for The Matrix, Point Break and Bill & Ted, would have a notably unique way of advertising itself by having the character be the fifth member of the Payday gang, instead of Hoxton, the REAL fifth member (and not even that, fuck you Houston, you were here fifth!). Overkill even doubled down on the crossover by having Chains and Wick know each other from back when, plus giving him his own Perk Deck, sunglasses masks and AKIMBO WEAPONS, SOMETHING WE HAD BEEN ASKING FOR SINCE PAYDAY 2 LAUNCHED IN 2013!

Naturally, I remember the reaction to Wick's introduction into the game to be...as nuanced as any controversial take on the internet could be. #KickTheWick was in immediate turbo use, especially when the character picker at the time was just "here is your preferred guy, and if they're already taken, it's the roulette wheel", partially due to it being a glorified ad and mostly because no-one knew what was about to happen, which was people going to see it because it was in Payday so why not, and coming back to go "Guys, I don't wanna alarm you, but John Wick's actually really fucking good!". One year on, and Wicks initial hatred was considered a relic even by then, thanks in part to the film being good, more in part to it being outplayed a month on and, realistically, because we were having a big DLC and balance bloat issue, and then Overkill just REALLY started pooping the goose during the next Crimefest!

So, to cut off the point I made in the title, do we count as the first real John Wick game? Honestly no, he was a guest character brought in before he was famous who quickly became one of the balloons we could use to further stand out. We had a weapon pack, a map pack featuring Lance Reddick (R.I.P.), a shitty VR game that no longer exists and a poster in the background of a scene in John Wick 2 (which the Wiki spoiled me on during opening weekend, and I STILL will not forgive them for that). We started off alongside it, and it had rapidly outgrown us by the time 3 happened, hell, it has had other games that didn't need our help to be mid! So seeing the trailer for the untitled game and seeing comments going "finally, a REEEL John Wick game", it's...well, it's true, but it's nice to say that it wouldn't be the first game he was in.

And we'll always have Hitman...


Silver crashed 11% but COMEX lost 8.9M oz in 2 days -- Registered below 100M for the first time, 15 days to March FND [Deep Dive v4]

Silver Outlook v4: February 12 to May 31, 2026

Author: DeadlySecret Date: 2026-02-12 (updated at close) Data through: 2026-02-12 (Wednesday close) Previous versions: v1_2026-02-09 | v2_2026-02-10 | v3_2026-02-11

What Changed Since v1/v2/v3

Metric v1 (Feb 6) v2 (Feb 9) v3 (Feb 10-11) v4 (Feb 11-12) Change (v1->v4)
Silver price $77.95 $83.31 $84.50 $75.07 (Feb 12 close) -$2.88 (-3.7%)
Gold price $4,965 $5,058 $5,076 $4,920 -$45 (-0.9%)
Gold/Silver ratio 63.7 60.7 60.1 65.57 +1.87
March OI (contracts) 76,091 73,142 68,366 65,494 -10,597 (-13.9%)
May OI 29,265 32,851 35,749 38,368 +9,103 (+31.1%)
Total OI (all months) ~135,258 136,134 ~134,006 ~134,056 -1,202 (-0.9%)
COMEX total inventory 394.5M oz 390.5M oz 386.3M oz 379.2M oz -15.3M (-3.9%)
Registered 102.5M oz 102.3M oz 101.4M oz 93.0M oz (Feb 12 report) -9.5M (-9.3%)
Eligible 292.0M oz 288.2M oz 284.9M oz 286.2M oz (Feb 12 report) -5.8M
Feb delivery MTD 4,061 4,490 4,592 4,595 (complete) +534
Shanghai premium est. ~$0 $8/oz $8/oz $8/oz New data
Settlement (Feb) $76.76 $82.23 $80.218 $80.218 (Feb 10) +$3.46
SLV $67.67 (-11.61%) New
SPX 6,832.77 (-1.57%) New
Transcripts 64 / 37 speakers 104 / 54 speakers 113 / 63 speakers 119+ / 69+ speakers +55 files, +32 speakers

v1 -> v2 -> v3 -> v4 Prediction Scorecard

v1 Prediction (Phase 1: Feb 9-14) v2 Update v3 Actual v4 Actual (Feb 12 close) Grade
Price range: $70-90 Narrowed to $78-88 $80.61-$86.32 $75.07 (BELOW range) C
March OI: ~65-70K by Feb 14 Revised to 68-73K 68,366 (Feb 10) 65,494 (Feb 11 VoI, ahead of schedule) A+
Inventory drain: 4-8M oz/week Revised to 6-10M/wk 4.2M in 1 day 2.3M oz on Feb 12 (7.0M in 2 days) A+
"Further margin adjustments possible" No changes yet No changes yet No changes yet Pending
"Recovery toward upper end" Confirmed ($83.31) Confirmed ($86.32 intraday) FAILED — crashed to $75.07 (-10.97%) F

Overall Phase 1 grade: B- -- OI and inventory predictions continue to track well, but the price prediction failed badly. The Feb 12 selloff (-10.97%) was a broad risk-off event (SPX -1.57%, gold -3.23%, all PMs sold) that was NOT anticipated by the fundamental analysis. The physical thesis (drain, OI, registered below 100M) remains intact, but the market doesn't care about fundamentals during correlation-driven liquidation events.

Executive Summary

CLOSING UPDATE: Silver crashed to $75.07 on February 12 (-10.97%) in a broad risk-off selloff (SPX -1.57%, gold -3.23%). SLV closed at $67.67 (-11.61%), only $2.16 above the Feb 5 crash low. The gold/silver ratio blew out to 65.57 (+8.74%). This was correlation-driven liquidation, not a change in physical fundamentals. COMEX inventory continued draining (-2.34M oz to 379.2M oz). CPI on Feb 13 is the next catalyst.

The key developments since v3:

  1. COMEX registered silver crashed to 93.03M oz -- down 5.11M oz in a single day (Feb 12 report) from reclassifications out of registered across 5 depositories. Registered has fallen 9.5M oz since v1 (Feb 6)
  2. Inventory drain continued at extreme pace -- 4.70M oz left COMEX on Feb 11 (vs 4.20M on Feb 10). The two-day average is ~4.45M oz/day, an annualized drain rate of 1,113M oz/yr against current holdings of 379.2M oz
  3. March OI dropped to 65,494 -- the roll is proceeding steadily, with Feb 10's -4,762 (VoI) being the largest single-day exit since Feb 5. Feb 11 saw another -2,872 (VoI). March OI has now shed 32,455 contracts since Jan 27 and is still 3.5x registered inventory
  4. May OI surged to 38,368 -- absorbing 2,619 of March's Feb 11 decline (~91% transfer rate). May has grown 53% since Jan 27
  5. February delivery is essentially complete -- 4,595 contracts (22.975M oz) with only 3 notices on Feb 11. Attention shifts entirely to March
  6. SLV divergence analysis reveals abnormal mechanics -- counter-cyclical AP flows, -19.4% NAV discount during crash, 907-basket creation event (32.9M oz in one day), and a persistent mean discount of -1.15% suggesting systematic underperformance vs physical silver

Updated central thesis: We are now 15 days from FND (Feb 27). March OI at 65,494 is still 3.5x registered (93.0M oz). At the current roll pace (~3,000-5,000/day), March should reach ~25,000-40,000 by FND. Even at the low end, with historical standing rates elevated (13%+ based on 2025 precedent), that's 3,250-5,200 contracts standing (16-26M oz). Against 93.0M registered -- or potentially ~70-80M by FND given the drain -- this is tight. But the extreme scenario (>15,000 standing) is what would truly stress the system.

Table of Contents

  1. Current State: Updated Numbers
  2. Phase 1-2 Scorecard
  3. Delivery Activity: February Complete
  4. March OI Trajectory Update
  5. Inventory Update: Registered Below 100M oz
  6. The May Handoff
  7. SLV vs XAG: The Paper-Physical Divergence
  8. Updated Week-by-Week Outlook
  9. Expert Consensus and Divergences
  10. Updated Price Scenarios
  11. Updated Risk Matrix
  12. Key Dates Calendar
  13. Conclusion

1. Current State: Updated Numbers

1.1 Price Snapshot (Feb 12 close)

https://preview.redd.it/f7wwsa1n95jg1.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc795e479b41710f1d555e710c292d356a661e66

Metric Value Change vs v3 Change vs v1
Silver (XAGUSD) Feb 12 close $75.07 -$9.43 -$2.88
Silver Feb 12 high $84.03 (European session)
Silver Feb 12 low ~$74.80
Gold (XAUUSD) Feb 12 close $4,920 -$156 -$45
Gold/Silver ratio 65.57 +5.47 +1.87
SLV close $67.67 (-11.61%)
SPX close 6,832.77 (-1.57%)
All-time high (Jan 29) $121.67 -- --
Crash low (Feb 2 intraday) $64.06 -- --
Recovery from crash low +17% ($75.07) -- --
Drawdown from ATH -38% ($75.07) -- --

Silver crashed 10.97% in a single session — the largest decline since the Jan 30 flash crash. This was a broad risk-off event: all precious metals, equities, and risk assets sold together. The gold/silver ratio blew out to 65.57, indicating silver was disproportionately hit by leveraged long liquidation. SLV closed at $67.67, only $2.16 above the Feb 5 crash low of $65.51.

1.2 COMEX Inventory

Category v1 (Feb 5) v2 (Feb 9) v3 (Feb 10) v4 (Feb 12) Change (v1->v4)
Registered 102.55M oz 102.26M oz 101.39M oz 93.03M oz -9.52M (-9.3%)
Eligible 291.96M oz 288.21M oz 284.88M oz 286.20M oz -5.76M
Total 394.51M oz 390.47M oz 386.27M oz 379.23M oz -15.28M

Feb 12 total inventory: 379.23M oz — another 2.34M oz physically withdrawn despite the 11% price crash. The physical drain does not respond to paper price moves. Total drain since v1 (6 trading days): 15.28M oz (-3.9%).

Registered crashed to 93.03M oz — down 5.11M oz in a single day from reclassifications (dewarranting) across 5 depositories. There is now only 93M oz of delivery-ready silver in COMEX against 65,494 contracts (327.5M oz) of March OI — a ratio of 3.5x.

https://preview.redd.it/l15h2ctv95jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccd2a6fa0e6a44e77dc283d1ada8d76fa6806cf8

Updated drain rate:

Period Total Drain Daily Rate Annualized
v1 (26-day, through Feb 6) -- 785K oz/day 196M oz/yr
v2 (24-day, Jan 6-Feb 9) -- 900K oz/day 225M oz/yr
v3 (Feb 9-10, 1 biz day) 4.20M ~4.20M oz/day 1,050M oz/yr
v4 (Feb 10-11, 1 biz day) 4.70M ~4.70M oz/day 1,175M oz/yr
v3-v4 avg (Feb 9-11, 2 biz days) 8.90M ~4.45M oz/day 1,113M oz/yr

The drain rate has been at ~4.5M oz/day for two consecutive days. Even if this pace moderates to ~2M oz/day (the Jan 6-Feb 11 average of 1.3M/day adjusted for recent acceleration), total inventory would drop to ~350-360M oz by FND, with registered potentially at 75-85M oz.

1.3 Open Interest Profile (Feb 11 session -- from VoiDetailsForProduct.xls)

Contract OI (Feb 11) M oz Change vs v3 (Feb 10)
Feb 2026 170 0.9 -102
March 2026 65,494 327.5 -2,872
Apr 2026 602 3.0 +53
May 2026 38,368 191.8 +2,619
Jul 2026 17,342 86.7 +53
Sep 2026 4,565 22.8 +82
Dec 2026 6,539 32.7 +122
Total ~134,056 ~670 +50

Note: All OI data from CME VoiDetailsForProduct.xls. March OI change of -2,872 reflects VoI Feb 10 (68,366) → VoI Feb 11 (65,494).

March shed 2,872 contracts on Feb 11 (VoI). May absorbed 2,619 -- a transfer rate of ~91%. Total OI was essentially flat (+50), meaning virtually no one is exiting silver entirely -- they're rolling forward.

1.4 CFTC Positioning (still Feb 3 data)

https://preview.redd.it/4aqcyc2y95jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=f41b26103c829843f28df988cbe47489615f1766

No new COT release. Next expected: Feb 14 release (for Feb 11 data).

Metric Value (Feb 3) Trend
Total OI 143,180 Down 13,457 from Jan 27
Commercial short 80,973 Down from 101K in Dec -- covering
Top 4 short % 35.6% Spiking
Top 8 short % 48.6% Spiking

2. Phase 1-2 Scorecard

Phase 1: Feb 9-14 -- Post-Crash Stabilization (IN PROGRESS, Day 4 of 6)

Metric v1 Forecast v2 Forecast v3 Actual v4 Actual (Feb 12) Grade
Price $70-90 $78-88 $80.61-$86.32 $81.90-$83.75 (Feb 12 range) A
March OI 65-70K by Feb 14 68-73K 68,366 (Feb 10) 65,494 (Feb 11, already hit low end) A+
Inventory drain 4-8M/wk 6-10M/wk 4.2M in 1 day 8.9M in 2 days A+
Volatility High Moderating $5.71 range (Feb 11) $1.85 range (Feb 12, narrowing) A
Key catalysts Employment, CPI Employment (Feb 11), CPI (Feb 13) NFP +130K, benchmark -898K CPI pending (Feb 13) A+

Phase 1 assessment: Exceeding expectations. March OI already hit the lower bound of the v1 target range 3 days early. Inventory drain rate is above worst-case projections. Volatility is narrowing as the market consolidates, which is constructive for a base before the next move. CPI on Feb 13 is the last major Phase 1 catalyst.

3. Delivery Activity: February Complete

3.1 Updated February Delivery Notices (through Feb 11 -- essentially complete)

Intent Date Daily Cumulative Running % of ~4,870 est. starting OI
Jan 29 1,881 1,881 ~39%
Jan 30 633 2,514 ~52%
Feb 02 251 2,765 ~57%
Feb 03 190 2,955 ~61%
Feb 04 608 3,563 ~73%
Feb 05 181 3,744 ~77%
Feb 06 317 4,061 ~84%
Feb 09 429 4,490 ~93%
Feb 10 102 4,592 ~94%
Feb 11 3 4,595 ~94.4%

Total Feb delivery: 4,595 contracts = 22.975M oz

Only 3 contracts on Feb 11 -- February is done. Remaining open Feb positions (170 contracts) are either EFP'd or abandoned. Attention shifts entirely to March.

https://preview.redd.it/xhzatepz95jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e48e047a0e8897285e9f43cba9efd40e62e1b36

3.2 Who Is Delivering? (YTD Report through Feb 11)

Firm Feb Issues Feb Stops Net Significance
JP Morgan 1,802 1,334 +468 issued Largest on both sides; net issuer in Feb
Wells Fargo 938 502 +436 issued Second largest net issuer
Deutsche Bank 526 369 +157 issued
Macquarie 459 648 -189 stopped Net accumulator
Stonex 133 482 -349 stopped Consistent physical accumulator
HSBC 144 265 -121 stopped
Scotia Capital 0 223 -223 stopped Taking delivery
Morgan Stanley 0 188 -188 stopped New significant stopper
Goldman Sachs 5 80 -75 stopped Still accumulating

Notable: JP Morgan is the largest participant on both sides -- issuing 1,802 and stopping 1,334. This is consistent with their role as the dominant market-maker and SLV custodian. The net-stopper diversification (Macquarie, Stonex, Scotia, Morgan Stanley, Goldman) suggests broadening institutional demand for physical silver.

3.3 YTD Delivery Context

Month 2024 2025 2026
January 6.8M oz 11.8M oz 49.4M oz
February (complete) 6.5M oz* 23.9M* 22.975M oz
YTD 13.3M 35.7M ~72.4M

2026 YTD deliveries are more than double the 2025 full Jan+Feb combined. February alone in a minor month delivered nearly as much as February 2025.

4. March OI Trajectory Update

4.1 Updated Daily Unwinding

https://preview.redd.it/1vzjr7z0a5jg1.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=53525a07e482e6f3995479cd0ec5ef2066042c23

Date March OI Daily Change Days to FND Source
Jan 27 97,949 -1,071 -31 Databento
Feb 1 91,790 -6,159 -26 Databento
Feb 2 86,440 -5,390 -25 Databento
Feb 3 86,446 +6 -24 Databento
Feb 4 85,819 -627 -23 Databento
Feb 5 80,502 -5,317 -22 Databento
Feb 6 76,091 -4,411 -21 Databento
Feb 9 73,128 -2,957 -18 Databento
Feb 10 68,366 -4,762 -17 VoI
Feb 11 65,494 -2,872 -16 VoI

The roll pace remains steady at ~2,500-5,000/day. Feb 10's -4,762 (VoI) was the largest single-day exit since Feb 5. Feb 11's -2,872 is moderate but consistent. At the current average pace of ~3,500/day (last 5 sessions), March OI would reach:

  • Feb 14 (3 trading days): ~55,000
  • Feb 21 (8 trading days): ~37,000
  • Feb 27 FND (12 trading days): ~23,000

This tracks with historical patterns where the roll accelerates further in the final week.

4.2 Roll Analysis: March -> May Transfer

Since Jan 27, March has lost 32,455 contracts. Where did they go?

Destination Change (Jan 27 -> Feb 11) % of March decline
May 2026 +13,367 41.2%
Jul 2026 +78 0.2%
Sep 2026 +83 0.3%
Dec 2026 +241 0.7%
Positions closed entirely ~18,686 57.6%

Updated roll assessment: The May transfer rate has increased from 36.3% (v3) to 41.2% -- a clear trend of more holders choosing to stay in silver via May rather than exit. On Feb 11, the transfer rate was ~91% (2,619 to May vs 2,872 lost from March), suggesting the margin-hike liquidation wave has largely passed. The remaining March holders are increasingly committed.

4.3 Updated Standing Projections

https://preview.redd.it/2ochy9b2a5jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=ded019f99488f7af8490a1f75995c5b453dadfae

Starting from 65,494 contracts (Feb 11), projected to ~23,000-35,000 by FND:

Scenario Standing % Contracts at FND (est. 30K base) M oz % of Registered (~93M)
Historical median (3.5%) 3.5% ~1,050 5.3 6%
Historical norm (5%) 5% ~1,500 7.5 8%
Elevated historical (7%) 7% ~2,100 10.5 11%
2025-like (13%) 13% ~3,900 19.5 21%
High stress (20%) 20% ~6,000 30.0 32%
Extreme (30%) 30% ~9,000 45.0 48%

Note: These projections use an estimated 30,000 contracts at FND. If the roll is slower and 40,000+ remain, all percentages scale up proportionally.

4.4 Comparison to March 2025 at Same Stage

https://preview.redd.it/nvt4fgc5a5jg1.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=70f25bcb938f98b344fc05c9a6d4c26329b681ad

Metric March 2025 (T-16) March 2026 (T-16)
OI at T-16 ~98,000 65,494
OI as % of peak 79% 55%
Registered at FND ~158M oz ~70-85M oz (est.)
Standing at FND (Mar 2025 actual) 15,691 (12.7%) ?

March 2026 has 33% less OI than March 2025 at the same stage, but 38-51% less registered silver to deliver. The key ratio -- delivery demand to deliverable supply -- is tighter in 2026.

5. Inventory Update: Registered Below 100M oz

https://preview.redd.it/jlnt9l78a5jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=4950cc2fbefbe48bb8964be92da2de508966a4a6

5.1 Total COMEX Inventory Timeline

Date Total Inventory Daily Change
Jan 6 426.5M oz --
Jan 27 411.7M oz --
Feb 1 405.7M oz -1.5M/day avg
Feb 4 398.0M oz -2.6M/day
Feb 6 394.5M oz -1.75M/day
Feb 9 390.5M oz -2.0M/day avg
Feb 10 386.3M oz -4.20M (1 biz day)
Feb 11 381.6M oz -4.70M (1 biz day)
Feb 12 379.2M oz -2.34M (1 biz day)

Total drain Jan 6 -> Feb 12: 47.3M oz in 27 business days = 1.75M oz/day average

The pace is clearly accelerating:

  • Jan 6-27: ~700K oz/day
  • Jan 27-Feb 6: ~1.7M oz/day
  • Feb 9-10: ~4.2M oz/day
  • Feb 10-11: ~4.7M oz/day
  • Feb 11-12: ~2.3M oz/day (moderated but still elevated)

5.2 Vault-Level Analysis (Feb 12 report, activity date Feb 11)

Depository Registered Eligible Total Reg Chg Total Chg
JP Morgan 12.04M 150.15M 162.19M 0.00M -1.13M
Brink's 16.12M 40.64M 56.76M -1.44M 0.00M
Loomis 7.37M 23.30M 30.67M 0.00M -0.05M
CNT 12.97M 15.31M 28.28M -2.37M 0.00M
Asahi 23.95M 2.56M 26.51M 0.00M -0.43M
HSBC 3.47M 21.15M 24.62M 0.00M 0.00M
MTB 6.50M 12.17M 18.67M -0.54M -0.60M
Delaware 1.55M 16.26M 17.81M -0.41M -0.13M
Others 9.04M 4.67M 13.72M -0.35M 0.00M
Total 93.03M 286.20M 379.23M -5.11M -2.34M

Key observations:

  • 5 depositories reclassified registered to eligible (dewarranting): CNT (-2.37M), Brink's (-1.44M), MTB (-0.54M), Delaware (-0.41M), IDS (-0.35M) = -5.11M total
  • CNT Depository had the largest registered drop: -2.37M oz — 15% of its registered silver dewarranted in one day
  • Physical withdrawals of -2.34M oz from JP Morgan (-1.13M), MTB (-0.60M), Asahi (-0.43M), Delaware (-0.13M), Loomis (-0.05M)
  • JP Morgan's eligible pool dropped to 150.15M oz (52.4% of all eligible) — continues as dominant withdrawal source
  • Zero metal was received into registered. Eligible actually increased net (+2.77M) due to registered reclassifications outweighing withdrawals

5.3 Updated Registered Projection

Date Optimistic (1.5M/day total) Base (2.5M/day) Accelerated (4M/day)
Feb 12 (actual) -- 379.2M --
Feb 14 (end Phase 1) 376M 374M 371M
Feb 21 (end Phase 2) 369M 362M 351M
Feb 27 (FND) 363M 352M 335M

Estimated registered at FND (assuming registered = ~24.5% of total, current ratio):

  • Optimistic: ~89M oz
  • Base: ~86M oz
  • Accelerated: ~82M oz

All scenarios project registered below 90M oz by FND. With today's 93.0M as the starting point and active dewarranting, registered could fall even faster than total inventory.

6. The May Handoff

6.1 May OI Status

https://preview.redd.it/ady4v90aa5jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=52ef84806a615f09276b1a5655492bbaf1858774

May OI: 38,368 contracts (191.8M oz) -- up 2,634 from Feb 10, the highest yet.

Date May OI Growth from Jan 27
Jan 27 25,001 --
Feb 3 25,641 +640
Feb 6 29,265 +4,264
Feb 9 32,851 +7,850 (+31.4%)
Feb 10 35,749 +10,748 (+43.0%)
Feb 11 38,368 +13,367 (+53.5%)

The May roll-in has been remarkably consistent: ~2,500-2,900 contracts per day over the last 3 sessions. At this pace, May could reach 55,000-65,000 by FND. This would make May 2026 one of the most heavily positioned silver delivery months in recent history.

6.2 The Cascading Risk

https://preview.redd.it/jq8yl54ba5jg1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fe01764d77175a4ad6bf8df26f38e448b06282f

The cascading risk from v3 is updated with tighter numbers:

If March delivery takes 20-30M oz from registered (~93M):

  • Post-March registered: ~63-73M oz
  • May at 55K contracts with 10% standing: 27.5M oz against 63-73M available
  • That's 38-44% -- tight

If March delivery takes 50M+ oz:

  • Post-March registered: ~43-53M oz
  • May at 10% standing: 27.5M oz against 43-53M
  • That's 52-64% -- severe stress territory

If March forces emergency measures (rule changes, cash settlement):

  • May holders will be even more determined to stand for delivery to test the system
  • This is the self-reinforcing feedback loop

7. SLV vs XAG: The Paper-Physical Divergence

7.1 Key Finding: SLV Market Price Tracks Spot Perfectly

Metric Value
SLV/XAG ratio mean 0.9061
SLV/XAG ratio range 0.9052-0.9066 (0.15% band)
Cumulative return spread (YTD) -0.02 pp

SLV's market price is essentially a perfect proxy for spot silver, adjusted for its 0.9069 oz-per-share. No divergence in market price.

7.2 Where the Divergence Is: NAV and Fund Mechanics

https://preview.redd.it/ile2at0ea5jg1.png?width=2085&format=png&auto=webp&s=09d40676b91dcfcc721e38d8ba0b122d083c006b

Metric Value
Mean NAV premium/discount -1.15% (persistent discount)
Max premium +4.39% (Feb 9)
Max discount -19.38% (Jan 30)
2025 Market vs LBMA benchmark return gap -4.40 pp (3x the 0.50% fee)

The -19.4% NAV discount on Jan 30 (crash day) reveals the arbitrage mechanism broke down -- Authorized Participants couldn't or wouldn't create baskets during the crisis.

7.3 Counter-Cyclical Flows: Silver Leaves During Rallies, Enters During Crashes

https://preview.redd.it/kl7uzf2fa5jg1.png?width=2085&format=png&auto=webp&s=97a1f5eef46ad8d24d4e0a0d76788edbc52153c1

Period Shares Change Implied Oz Change Direction
Jan 5-29 (rally) -32.5M (-5.6%) -29.5M oz OUT
Jan 30-Feb 2 (crash) +36.3M (+6.6%) +32.9M oz IN
Feb 3-11 (stabilization) -10.8M (-1.8%) -9.8M oz OUT
Net (Jan 2-Feb 11) -6.9M (-1.2%) -6.3M oz OUT

This is the opposite of normal ETF behavior. APs are using SLV as a physical silver buffer pool:

  • During rallies: redeem baskets, pull silver out to sell at high prices or deliver on COMEX
  • During crashes: create baskets, park silver back to exploit NAV discounts

The 907-basket creation event on Feb 2 (~32.9M oz in a single day) is extraordinary. For context, that's 33% of current COMEX registered inventory, deposited in one session. This silver almost certainly came from LBMA London vaults via book-entry transfers at JP Morgan (SLV's custodian).

7.4 Implications for the Thesis

  1. SLV holders systematically underperform physical silver (-4.40 pp vs benchmark in 2025, more than 3x the stated fee)
  2. The SLV-LBMA-COMEX triangle allows APs to arbitrage silver between venues -- SLV is a source/sink for the physical market
  3. During extreme stress, the arbitrage mechanism can break (as it did with -19.4% discount), meaning SLV's "paper silver" promise temporarily fails
  4. Net-net, SLV has lost 6.3M oz YTD despite the massive crash-day deposit, consistent with the broader physical drain thesis
  5. SLV redemptions during rallies may have been supplying silver to meet COMEX delivery demand -- creating a hidden pipeline between ETF investors' holdings and futures market deliveries

8. Updated Week-by-Week Outlook

https://preview.redd.it/8ac2hq4ga5jg1.png?width=2700&format=png&auto=webp&s=b97b45b8b134b9dec1daa8b7ad33d4791a3faced

Phase 1: Feb 9-14 -- Post-Crash Stabilization (IN PROGRESS)

Status: Day 4 of 6. March OI ahead of schedule.

Metric v3 Forecast v4 Actual (Feb 12) Updated (Feb 12-14)
Price $82-90 $81.90-$83.75 $80-88
March OI 63-68K 65,494 (Feb 11) 58-63K by Feb 14
Inventory drain 10-15M oz 8.9M in 2 days 12-18M oz (Phase 1 total)

Key catalysts remaining:

  • Feb 13: January CPI Data -- inflation/rate cut signal. Wages at +3.7% y/y from NFP report keeps some inflation risk. A hot CPI could temporarily dampen rate-cut expectations and pressure silver. A cool CPI would be bullish
  • Feb 14: COT release (for Feb 11 data) -- first updated positioning since Feb 3. Should show further commercial short covering and potentially even higher concentration ratios

Phase 2: Feb 14-21 -- Acceleration Phase

Updated expectations:

  • The weak NFP + massive benchmark revision (-898K) from Feb 11 tilts the Fed toward earlier rate cuts
  • Post-CPI, the macro picture will be clearer -- this determines whether Phase 2 is range-bound or breakout
  • March OI drops to ~37,000-45,000
  • May OI rises past 48,000-55,000
  • Physical dealer shortages persist
  • COT release on Feb 14 may show extreme positioning, attracting media attention

Price range: $80-95 March OI target: ~37,000-45,000 by Feb 21

Phase 3: Feb 21-27 -- Final Roll Week (CRITICAL)

Updated expectations:

  • If March OI > 20,000 on Feb 25, stress signal (unchanged)
  • The improving roll-to-May rate (now 41.2%) suggests committed holders
  • Registered at ~75-89M oz by this point
  • Pre-FND positioning likely to generate sharp price moves

Price range: $82-112 March OI target: 3,000-12,000 by Feb 27

Phase 4: Feb 27 - Mar 5 -- FND Week

Updated scenario matrix:

Standing M oz Market Reaction v4 Probability
<5,000 contracts <25M Relief. Orderly month. 22% (was 25%)
5,000-10,000 25-50M Elevated but manageable. Premiums rise. 35%
10,000-15,000 50-75M Stress. Registered barely covers. 23% (was 22%)
15,000-20,000 75-100M Severe stress. EFP premiums spike. 13% (was 12%)
>20,000 >100M Crisis. Cash settlement risk. 7% (was 6%)

Net shift: -3% from relief, +3% toward elevated/stress scenarios. Registered breaking below 100M and the two-day extreme drain rate both support higher standing probability.

Price range: $80-122

Phase 5: Mar 5-27 -- Delivery Month

Price range: $85-$128 (raised floor) Key indicator: Daily registered changes. Below 50M oz = crisis mode.

Phase 6: Mar 27 - Apr 15 -- Post-March Assessment

Price range: $90-$120

Phase 7: Apr 15-29 -- May Pre-Roll Buildup

Price range: $95-$135

Phase 8: Apr 30 - May 31 -- May Delivery Month

End-May price scenarios:

Scenario Price Range v4 Probability
Bear (deleveraging, rule changes) $50-78 9% (was 10%)
Base (orderly but tight) $88-108 38% (was 40%)
Bull (delivery stress persists) $108-145 37% (was 35%)
Extreme (delivery failure) $145-200+ 16% (was 15%)

9. Expert Consensus and Divergences

Based on 119+ transcripts across 69+ speakers. 6 new transcripts processed Feb 12

The most balanced view from v3 remains relevant: the same data can support both a genuine shortage story AND a leverage/negotiation play. The new China angle adds complexity -- China was behind both the short attack AND the physical buying. This suggests China may be using silver markets as a tool for broader geopolitical positioning rather than pure investment.

10. Updated Price Scenarios

10.1 Scenario Table (Updated with Feb 11-12 data)

Date Bear Base Bull Extreme
Current (Feb 12) $83.15 $83.15 $83.15 $83.15
Feb 14 $72-78 $80-86 $86-93 $93+
Feb 27 (FND) $65-72 $80-92 $94-120 $120+
Mar 31 $56-72 $90-108 $118-145 $145+
Apr 30 $50-66 $94-110 $122-155 $155+
May 31 $46-60 $98-114 $130-172 $172+

10.2 Updated Probability Weights

Scenario v1 v2 v3 v4 Rationale
Bear (deleveraging) 15% 12% 10% 9% Roll transfer to May improving; margin liquidation mostly done
Base (orderly but tight) 45% 43% 40% 38% Registered below 100M adds uncertainty to "orderly"
Bull (delivery stress) 30% 33% 35% 37% Drain rate confirms physical demand; May OI building fast
Extreme (delivery failure) 10% 12% 15% 16% Two consecutive 4.5M+ oz drain days; China angle; SLV mechanics

Net shift: +2% toward bull/extreme outcomes, -2% from bear/base.

11. Updated Risk Matrix

11.1 Upside Risks (silver goes higher than expected)

Risk Probability Impact Trigger
March standing exceeds 20K contracts 18% +$20-40 Physical demand persistence
COMEX registered drops below 50M oz 28% +$15-30 Accelerated drain
SLV creation/redemption disruption 15% +$15-30 Following China trust pattern
Japan debt crisis -> metals surge 25% +$20-40 Yield spike, yen divergence
Bitcoin continues crashing -> metals 40% +$5-10 Crypto risk-off
Gold pushes above $5,500 30% +$10-20 Dollar weakness / rate cuts
China actively bids for physical 20% +$20-50 Shanghai premium widens
Cool CPI (Feb 13) -> rate cut rally 35% +$5-15 Below-consensus CPI

11.2 Downside Risks (silver goes lower than expected)

Risk Probability Impact Trigger
Additional CME margin hikes 25% -$10-20 Continued volatility
Hot CPI (Feb 13) -> dollar surge 30% -$8-15 Above-consensus CPI
COMEX introduces cash-settlement silver 15% -$15-25 Rule change
Repeat coordinated short attack 8% -$10-20 Temporary (actors banned, but others could emerge)
Broad market deleveraging 20% -$20-30 Equity crash
Geopolitical resolution 25% -$5-15 De-escalation
Eligible-to-registered conversion wave 15% -$5-10 Premiums induce vault owners to register metal

11.3 Systemic Risks (tail events)

Risk Probability Impact Mechanism
COMEX force majeure on silver 5% Extreme Delivery exceeds registered + willing eligible
Paper-physical price split 12% Severe Two-tier market with dealer premium >50%
LBMA silver market freeze 5% Extreme London runs out of available silver for lease
Flash crash below $50 8% Severe Algorithmic cascade in thin liquidity
Flash spike above $200 5% Extreme Short squeeze + delivery failure

12. Key Dates Calendar (Updated)

Date Event Significance Days Away
Feb 12 (TODAY) v4 Report Data consolidation 0
Feb 13 January CPI Data Inflation/rate cut signal -- MOST IMPORTANT THIS WEEK 1
Feb 14 COT release (for Feb 11 data) Updated positioning 2
Feb 25 March Last Trade Day (SIH26) Last day to trade March contract 13
Feb 26 March First Position Day Position accountability begins 14
Feb 27 March First Notice Day Standing determined -- MOST CRITICAL 15
Mar 2 March First Delivery Day Physical delivery begins 18
Mar 27 March Settlement Day March contract settles 43
Mar 31 March Last Delivery Day Final physical delivery 47
Apr 30 May First Notice Day (SIK26) May standing determined 77

13. Conclusion

The data since v3 continues the trend of incrementally bullish developments:

  1. Registered silver crashed to 93.03M oz -- down 5.11M in a single day from dewarranting across 5 vaults. There is now less delivery-ready silver than at any point in this cycle
  2. Two consecutive extreme drain days (4.2M + 4.7M = 8.9M oz in 2 business days) confirm this is not a one-off event but an accelerating trend
  3. March OI declined to 65,494 -- the roll is proceeding on schedule, with the largest single-day drops in recent sessions. March OI hit our Phase 1 lower target 3 days early
  4. May OI surged to 38,368 -- absorbing 41.2% of March's decline (up from 36.3%), with total OI flat. No one is leaving silver
  5. February delivery is essentially complete at 4,595 contracts -- the market's attention now shifts entirely to March
  6. SLV analysis reveals abnormal fund mechanics -- counter-cyclical AP flows, a -19.4% NAV discount during the crash, and net loss of 6.3M oz YTD despite a massive single-day deposit. The paper-physical plumbing is under stress
  7. 6 new expert voices reinforce the supply-stress thesis, with China's growing role in silver pricing adding a new geopolitical dimension

v4 probability-weighted expected price by May 31:

  • Bear: $53 x 9% = $4.77
  • Base: $106 x 38% = $40.28
  • Bull: $151 x 37% = $55.87
  • Extreme: $186 x 16% = $29.76
  • Weighted average: ~$131/oz (up from v3's ~$127, v2's ~$115, v1's ~$103)

The central risk is unchanged: what happens on Feb 27. With 65,494 contracts still open and 15 days to go, the standing number will determine everything. The base case sees 5,000-10,000 contracts standing (25-50M oz) against ~70-85M oz registered -- tight but potentially manageable with EFPs and eligible conversions. The tail risks have increased again.

Key monitoring points for the next 24-48 hours:

  • Feb 13 CPI -- the last major data point before the roll enters its final phase. Hot CPI = temporary headwind. Cool CPI = tailwind. Either way, the physical setup is unchanged
  • Daily March OI decline rate and May OI growth
  • Inventory: does the 4.5M+ oz/day pace continue?
  • Physical dealer availability worldwide
  • Feb 14 COT release -- will likely show extreme concentration ratios

15 days to First Notice Day. The clock is ticking.

This report represents analysis based on data available through February 11-12, 2026, including web research and 119+ expert transcripts. All forward-looking projections are scenario-based and conditional. This is not financial advice.


Did I time it just right again?

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1r37mfi

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Crypto Ecosystem Growth Guide

The Crypto Ecosystem Growth guide is your marketing bible – a comprehensive playbook packed with strategies, insights, and battle-tested tactics essential for driving explosive growth of crypto ecosystems. Whether you're building an on-chain project, launching a token, or scaling your crypto community, this resource will equip you with the tools needed to cut through the noise and create lasting impact.

By the time you turn the last page, you’ll have a clear, actionable roadmap for leveraging three core pillars of crypto growth, along with several potent 'power-ups'  to drive the growth of the crypto ecosystem you’ve been tirelessly building, including: 

  • Social Media Marketing
  • Influencer Marketing 
  • Public Relations
  • Localized hubs
  • Crypto events
  • AI Marketing tools 

CHAPTER 1: Why Building Isn't Enough 

For years, you've been deep in the trenches tirelessly crafting something truly extraordinary in the Web3 space. And you haven’t done it alone. You have managed to put together a strong team, consisting of:

  • Developers meticulously piecing together the technology.
  • Entrepreneurs brainstorming and bringing innovative ideas to life.
  • Investors providing essential financial backing.
  • Content Creators narrating your journey every step of the way.

Each individual has been instrumental in laying a solid foundation for your crypto ecosystem. But despite all this effort, something crucial has been overlooked. Something that has the power to determine whether your project soars or fades into nothingess.

  1. Your Project Demands Attention

https://preview.redd.it/30ovju1ltxig1.png?width=1544&format=png&auto=webp&s=4529cc50b7736d7653386a3669ddf0f71dc0e406

You've reached a crossroads. Your product is built. The infrastructure is in place. The vision is no longer just an idea; it’s tangible, functional, and ready for the world.

But ask yourself this: If no one knows about it, does it even exist?

Too many Web3 founders get caught in an endless loop of refining, tweaking, and adding “just one more feature.” There’s always something more to improve. You tell yourself that once the product is perfect, the users will come.

But they won’t. Not unless you actively bring them in. Not unless you make them see why your ecosystem matters.

The reality is, Web3 moves fast. One moment, the space is buzzing with excitement. Next, it’s a bear market, and even the most promising projects struggle for attention. If you wait too long, if you keep telling yourself that “the product isn’t quite ready yet,” you risk launching into silence.

  1. It Starts With Your Own Team

Before you even think about influencers, media coverage, or community marketing, your own team must be the first to talk about your project.

Your developers, your founders, your marketers, every single person who has helped bring this vision to life should be your loudest champions. If the people closest to your project aren’t actively talking about it, why should anyone else care?

Your team needs to be:

  • Posting updates and insights on social media
  • Engaging in industry conversations on platforms like Twitter
  • Writing articles, blog posts, and thought leadership pieces that position your project as a must-watch innovation in the space

Every major Web3 success story starts with a core group of believers who are relentless in spreading the word. That starts with you and your team.

  1. From Building to Promoting

The projects that dominate in Web3 aren’t just the most technically advanced or the most innovative. They’re the ones that command attention, spark conversations, and build movements.

Imagine what happens when your project is no longer just something you and your team believe in, but something the entire crypto community is talking about. When investors, developers, influencers, and users aren’t just aware of it, but are excited about it.

That moment doesn’t come from silently building in the background. It comes from stepping into the spotlight, from actively marketing, from positioning your project in a way that demands recognition.

The truth is, the best technology doesn’t always win. 

The best-marketed technology does.

CHAPTER 2: Crypto ecosystem growth

Since 2017, we’ve been in the trenches of crypto marketing, helping ecosystems grow from niche communities to full-fledged powerhouses. We’ve seen what works, what flops, and what gets people genuinely excited. And if there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s this: an ecosystem is only as strong as the projects thriving within it.

Success in Web3 isn’t about isolated wins,it’s about momentum. One great project doesn’t just succeed on its own; it brings in users, attracts developers, and creates a ripple effect that fuels the entire ecosystem. Every transaction, every interaction, every conversation adds to the network’s strength. It’s a flywheel effect: success breeds more success, adoption leads to more adoption, and suddenly, an ecosystem isn’t just surviving but booming.

The challenge is keeping that momentum balanced.

https://preview.redd.it/k76fdu1ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc5f230ee9a0ab0704e74631edf97799bbc6418c

The Biggest Challenge in Ecosystem Growth

After working with hundreds of Web3 projects, we’ve learned that building a thriving crypto ecosystem is a delicate dance. You need a mix of developers pushing the tech forward, investors willing to fuel new ideas, entrepreneurs creating fresh opportunities, community members ("degens") engaging, using, and hyping up the projects.

Still, the biggest mistake we see is one-dimensional marketing. 

Too many ecosystems hyper-focus on just one audience—developers, traders, or investors without speaking to all the key players. The most successful ecosystems don’t pick sides. They grow holistically, ensuring every stakeholder has a reason to participate.

We’ve worked with over 250 Web3 projects, and we’ve seen what it takes to scale an ecosystem. In the 2021 bull market, we helped Cosmos grow its market cap by tens of millions through strategic campaigns. We also ran one of the first major Cosmos airdrops, bringing in tens of thousands of new users overnight. 

Moreover, our campaigns for Polkadot and ICP reached millions, creating viral moments and high-impact media impressions that strengthened both communities.

But before we talk strategy, there’s one step every ecosystem needs to nail first: understanding where you stand today.

Assessing the Health of a Crypto Ecosystem

The foundation of any effective growth strategy starts with a deep understanding of the ecosystem’s current state. Before launching a campaign, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation, analyzing both the technology and the surrounding activity that determines whether an ecosystem has staying power.

Here’s what we look at:

  1. Active wallets per month: The number of unique wallet addresses that engage in transactions each month. 
  2. Developer activity: Contributions to GitHub, the number of MVPs submitted, and overall participation in protocol development. 
  3. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs): The transaction volume and asset diversity on decentralized exchanges.
  4. Launchpad effectiveness: How successfully the ecosystem brings new projects to market. Well-performing launchpads indicate a thriving pipeline of innovation.
  5. Memecoin presence: While often dismissed, memecoin activity can be a sign of cultural relevance and strong grassroots engagement.
  6. Community vibrancy: Measured through social media discussions, governance participation, and organic mentions in top crypto publication

By breaking down these metrics, we can pinpoint exactly what’s working, what needs improvement, and how to craft a marketing strategy that ensures not just growth, but balanced, sustainable expansion.

In the next chapters, we’ll break down the three core strategies that drive successful ecosystem marketing, exploring how to attract developers, engage communities, and position ecosystems for long-term success.

CHAPTER 3: Influencer marketing for ecosystem growth 

Influencer marketing is one of the most powerful tools in the Web3 space. The right influencers don’t just boost visibility, they build trust, drive engagement, and connect projects with highly targeted audiences. In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Why influencer marketing works in crypto
  • The different types of crypto influencers
  • A checklist for successful collaborations
  • A unique method to amplify results and maximize ROI
  • The best platforms for influencer marketing in the crypto space

Why Crypto Influencer Marketing Works

Crypto moves fast. Keeping up with trends, updates, and emerging projects takes time, time that most people don’t have. This is where influencers step in. They filter through the noise, break down complex topics, and make Web3 more accessible. Whether it’s market insights, project reviews, or deep-dive explainers, influencers play a crucial role in driving onchain adoption.

A strong influencer has spent years cultivating a loyal audience, making their endorsements far more impactful than traditional ads. Followers listen because they believe in the influencer’s expertise. That trust is what makes influencer marketing one of the most effective ways to promote a crypto project.

Yes, influencer marketing can be expensive. But the return on investment (ROI) makes it worth it. A recent survey by Astute Analytica found that 89% of marketers see influencer marketing as performing as well or better than other channels. In both bull and bear markets, influencer marketing remains one of the most reliable ways to reach an engaged audience. 

https://preview.redd.it/b5vtea5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=288d901dbf9a6feacc3373b0dbdd7b6b11e10b34

Key Benefits of Influencer Marketing in Crypto

  1. Greater reach and visibility

A single tweet, YouTube video, or newsletter mention from the right influencer can put a project in front of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of potential users.

  1. Trust, credibility, and authority

Influencers' reputation acts as a bridge between projects and potential users. A well-placed recommendation from a respected figure in the space can instantly boost a project’s credibility.

  1. Targeted traffic and conversions

A well-matched partnership means that every view, click, and engagement is from someone who’s already interested in the space. Instead of casting a wide net and hoping for conversions, influencer marketing delivers traffic that’s already primed to take action.

Types of crypto influencers

Not all influencers are the same. Some command massive audiences, while others focus on smaller, highly engaged communities. Each type serves a different purpose, and understanding their strengths helps in crafting a more effective influencer marketing strategy.

  1. Macro Influencers (100K – 1M+ Followers)

These influencers offer a strong mix of reach and credibility. Their content is often in-depth, educational, and backed by years of industry experience. They have high CPM (cost per thousand impressions) and are excellent for project awareness.

Here’s just some examples of macro influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓ 

https://preview.redd.it/4uopsh5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=baf5ec19bd9f18a9a4b011c940ca2abd8deb1b80

  1. Mid-Tier Influencers (50K – 500K Followers)

Mid-tier influencers deliver similar benefits to macro influencers but at a more affordable cost. They still have a strong presence and engaged following but offer a better balance of reach and budget. 

Some examples of mid-tier influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓ 

https://preview.redd.it/7noexn5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f0662239e43d40cd64788b9532bcd22be523b63

  1. Micro-influencers (10K – 50K Followers)

Crypto micro-influencers are people with a small but engaged following, often interested in more niche topics. Their content feels more personal, and their audiences tend to be deeply loyal, promoting an unmatched sense of community and trust.

Some examples of micro-influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓

https://preview.redd.it/6ng50j5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=950442bb53d35b5471d09a9402cb1b432087d57e

For the sake of full context, there are two more types of influencers: mega and nano

Mega influencers are a subcategory of influencers with a massive following and reach.  These are mainstream celebrities, artists, and high-profile figures (e.g., Snoop Dogg, Logan Paul). While they have huge reach, their engagement rates are often lower, and they’re not always the best fit for ecosystem-focused crypto growth.

Nano influencers have a small but active following of crypto fans. They have between 1k and 10k followers. They’re great for niche targeting but often lack the scale needed for broader ecosystem marketing.

For ecosystem growth, macro, mid-tier, and micro influencers are the best bets.

Influencer marketing checklist 

  1. Choose the right influencers

First and foremost, making sure that the influencer’s audience is interested in the promoted ecosystem is necessary.

  1. Define campaign objectives

If you do not define clear objectives, you will not be able to evaluate if you are progressing or what you are spending your budget on. 

  1. Detailed content briefs

Don't just inform influencers on the topic, but give them everything they possibly need to create engaging content that can be shared, inviting the community to get involved. 

  1. Include CTA and tracking mechanisms

Whether it’s visiting a site, joining an airdrop, or signing up for a whitelist, include clear CTAs. Use tracking links, promo codes, or affiliate systems to measure performance.

Lunar amplification method for ROI maximization 

Let us showcase to you the ‘Lunar amplification method,’ which is our unique approach to boosting our influencer marketing message's reach.  

Firstly, we team up with a high-profile influencer, someone with a large audience and a strong presence in the cryptocurrency community. This individual produces content that aligns with what we stand for and what we're trying to achieve. Their involvement ensures our campaign's message strikes a chord and spreads effectively throughout the community.

Then, in order to enhance our impact, we engage a carefully chosen group of mid-level influencers. These influencers may have fewer followers, but they are significant voices in their circles. They add their credibility to the narrative started by our lead influencer, expanding the reach in a natural, authentic way. Their input is more likely to be valued by their followers, leading to genuine conversations and deeper connections.

Here is a picture that visualizes the amplification method coined by Lunar Strategy ↓

https://preview.redd.it/9txxcz5ltxig1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e113a51762c1a5e8408bec9cdd2c7f0101ecdbb

Our work with Polkadot validates the success of the given approach that has shown to foster meaningful engagement and build lasting bonds within the ecosystem.

Ultimately, this method is designed not just to share a message but to spark a ripple effect, where influencers amplify each other, drawing in a wider audience and keeping them engaged long-term. It’s a strategic, network-driven approach designed to maximize ROI and build momentum.

At the same time, it’s still important to keep in mind the following fundamentals. 

  1. Set realistic goals

If you expect instant results, you’ll be disappointed. Influencer marketing works best as a long-term strategy, aligning with the project’s broader goals. Setting realistic expectations means assessing resources, reach, and campaign scalability.

  1. Adapt strategies

Adaptability is non-negotiable since agility in the campaigns improves expectations of success, as long as the content adapts to new trends and market changes. 

  1. Stand out in a changing market

Survival in Web3 means constant innovation. Projects that push boundaries, experiment with new formats, and capitalize on emerging trends are the ones that dominate.

  1. Invest in long-term relationships

One-off influencer campaigns can generate buzz, but sustained partnerships deliver consistent engagement and trust. The smartest move is to build a network of long-term ambassadors who champion your ecosystem over time.

There are two main options for choosing the best platforms for crypto influencer marketing. The first one is the one and only – X, formerly known as Twitter. It is unarguably the beating heart of the crypto community, making it a self-explanatory choice. 

The second one is YouTube. We found that collaborations with influencers on this platform paired with X ones work exceptionally well, especially given that the biggest YOUTUBE influencers started their personal brand on X first. 

It means that you can lock in pretty good bundles of content, which involve both written content on X and YT videos.  

CHAPTER 4: PR for ecosystem growth 

A strong PR strategy is more than just getting featured in the news and crafting a narrative that resonates, builds credibility, and drives real engagement. It  makes complex blockchain projects approachable, turning technical jargon into compelling stories that connect with the wider public.

In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Role of PR in crypto ecosystem growth
  • Creating successful PR release 
  • Types of PR campaigns

Why PR Matters in Crypto Ecosystem Growth

Crypto moves at breakneck speed. Projects rise and fall based on visibility, trust, and perception. PR acts as the bridge between technical innovation and mass adoption, translating blockchain breakthroughs into stories that capture attention.

The PR campaigns also serve exceptionally well to cover industry events and trends related to your project, make product, airdrop, and development hackathon announcements, just to name a few. 

Creating a successful PR release 

It all begins with building solid relationships with journalists, influencers, and media outlets for obtaining favorable media coverage and creating buzz about the initiative. Once that aspect is taken care of, you can start thinking about the following things.  

  1. Strategic storytelling & narratives in PR

The essence of effective crypto PR lies in the craft of storytelling. Identifying an angle that resonates and articulates the 'who', 'what', and 'when' in a way that captivates the audience. This storytelling is not just about catching the eye but also about ensuring that the message gets shared across the community, urging action and fostering a sense of belonging.

Some industry examples like "DeFi Summer on Solana" have demonstrated the power of a well-constructed story to onboard a broader community into an ecosystem. These narratives work especially well when paired with influencer collaborations, which we have already covered previously.

https://preview.redd.it/th4axt5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5534efe1ee3327af80f4557bfe656787429e1c7

  1. Nail the Headline

Your headline is the make-or-break moment. In a space where news moves fast, it needs to grab attention instantly. Make it concise, intriguing, and clear about the value being presented.

  1. Key information upfront

Conveying key information in the opening paragraph ensures that your audience understands the essential message even if they read no further. This transparency builds trust and lays the foundation for deeper engagement with your ecosystem.

  1. Get straight to the point

Keeping your press release brief and to the point while ensuring that it carries newsworthy content is a balancing act. It's about delivering value without overwhelming the reader, providing just enough to pique interest and encourage further exploration of your ecosystem without hard-selling.

Summing up, it’s also essential to keep in mind that staying flexible and responsive to trends with your PR campaigns will ensure your ecosystem remains relevant and resonant. 

Types of PR campaigns

The debate between organic and sponsored content is a tale of two major strategies: organic and paid. Organic features are about credibility and cost-effectiveness, yet they require patience and perseverance. Building relationships and crafting pitches can be daunting, but the payoff in audience trust is priceless.

When it comes to sponsored content, even though it can get expensive, it offers immediate visibility and thought leadership positioning. The investment is not just monetary but also in creating content that strikes a chord and delivers on the promise of engagement.

Through our own experience, we found that keeping the balance between both types works the best in terms of results and trust levels of community members. 

CHAPTER 5: X marketing for ecosystem growth 

Crypto lives on X. It’s where narratives are built, where trends take off, and where projects either skyrocket or fade into nothingness. If you want your crypto ecosystem to thrive, you need a dominant presence on X with not just posting updates, but shaping conversations, creating viral moments, and converting lurkers into loyal community members.

In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Why X is the ultimate battleground for crypto ecosystems
  • How to set up your profile for maximum conversions
  • A content strategy that drives engagement
  • The key pillars of viral X content
  • Growth tactics to expand your reach

Why X Marketing is Essential for Crypto Ecosystems

Being the central hub for all things crypto,  a well-defined and comprehensive X marketing strategy will help boost the online presence and reach of the crypto ecosystem.

After Elon’s takeover, X doubled the number of monthly active users to more than 520 million. So, building a distinctive brand image and being active on this platform can enable you to convert these prospects into paying customers, especially given the recent Bitcoin ETF approval, with more people gaining interest in the crypto space.

Even though millions of people around the world are interested in joining the crypto movement, they cannot do it because there is still a big disconnect between crypto service providers and users. For many web3 brands, it has been a challenge to effectively reach their target audience to provide them with the services they’re looking for. 

But X helps effectively bridge this gap.

Optimizing Your X Profile for Conversions 

Think of your X profile as prime real estate in the crypto marketplace. Every visitor is a potential customer, and every detail on your profile is an opportunity to make an impression. To maximize conversions, focus on these four key areas:

  1. Banner

Your banner should inspire trust without overwhelming visitors. It's the billboard for the brand, so make it count. Elements to include:

  • A clear image of your product or service
  • Recognition badges like media features or endorsements
  • Logos of past clients or partners
  • A direct call to action (e.g., "Book a meeting")
  • A concise and memorable slogan
  1. Bio 

This is your brand's elevator pitch. In one brief sentence, you need to encapsulate what you do and spark curiosity, making profile visitors stick around, not scratch their heads and wander off.

  1. Pinned post

This post is the centerpiece of your X profile. To maximize its impact, it’s worth  including the following things in it:

  • Customer testimonials
  • Successful case studies
  • A direct call to action
  • Highlights of your best work
  • Links to valuable resources like development guides, whitepapers, etc
  1. Golden check

The gold checkmark signifies an official Verified Organization on X, showcasing you're a committed business investing at least 1k monthly on X for the badge. It elevates your brand's credibility and doubles your organic reach. Additionally, with it, you can affiliate others to your brand, be it sub-brands or active team members on X, which also have a 2x organic boost by the X algorithm. 

  1. Profile picture 

Keep it professional and on-brand. If it suits your brand's personality, add a dash of bright color to stand out in the X feed.

Here’s a great example of a conversion-optimized X profile ↓

https://preview.redd.it/poa4mv1ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=b586c2e730f89f3186a06d506884b9c6865faf65

This is a profile that doesn't just attract visitors – it turns them into followers, leads, and customers of the crypto ecosystem.

X content creation strategy

It goes without saying that capturing attention is as crucial as the innovation itself. X strategy should be designed to transform curiosity into a dedicated following and potential investment. Here’s a battle-tested approach to making it happen:

  1. Identify THE audience

Your content should speak directly to crypto enthusiasts, investors, and builders who resonate with your ecosystem’s vision. Understanding their pain points and aspirations ensures every post delivers value.

  1. Solve real problems

Next, we focus on the issues that our audience faces. Whether it's simplifying complex blockchain concepts or offering insights into market trends, our content aims to provide solutions that matter.

  1. Building trust

Establishing trust is non-negotiable. We craft our narrative to demonstrate reliability, expertise, and the unique advantages of our ecosystem, ensuring our audience feels confident in our offer.

  1. Keeping a healthy posting ratio

Our mantra is to 'give more than you ask.' By providing value threefold before making an ask, we keep our audience educated, engaged, and eager for more.

  1. Establishing diversified content pillars

This step is by far the most important, as it will be decisive in how great the overall content strategy is. 

Establishing X Content Pillars

In order to guarantee that your crypto ecosystem’s X page gets known in the space, the following content pillars should be established: 

  • Lead magnets

Crypto users are more likely to engage if they get something valuable in return. Web3 lead magnets like eBooks, webinars, or exclusive reports turn casual followers into email subscribers and future investors.

https://preview.redd.it/rnxez52ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=76f5be0b398177851ae428d251dda260823ef4d2

  • Case studies & deep dives

A strategy for attracting potential investors begins with addressing common questions and creating deep dives into the ecosystem's utilities as well as case studies. Think DEX walkthroughs, wallet comparisons, and protocol breakdowns.

  • Updates and news coverage

Consistently share updates – big or small – so that your community never feels out of the loop. Whether it's a new partnership or a rollout of a new feature – make it known to your audience. 

  • Engagement posts

AMAs, polls, memes, and questions are types of posts designed to get people talking, sharing their views, and feeling like they're part of the journey, which can’t be overlooked. 

  • Thought leadership posts

    Start conversations, don’t just join them. Offering unique insights into market trends and future industry shifts positions your ecosystem as a credible voice in the space.

X growth tactics

  1. X giveaways

Giveaways are a fast and effective way to boost followers and drive traffic. Offering stablecoins, native tokens, or exclusive perks can kickstart a campaign and if you have a smaller account, it might be a good idea to start the campaign with another larger partner.

  1. “Reply game” strategy

Being the reply guy is the strongest weapon you can utilize on X. Back in the summer of 2023, our team hit 4M+ impressions in just 7 days using this method.

https://preview.redd.it/ul5nj62ltxig1.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=3df31b6a3346fd08a3c20a88a97f777447917d3c

In a nutshell, being a ‘reply guy’ means strategically responding to posts within your niche, adding value, and sparking interest.

Here’s how to execute it: 

  • Create a list of profiles with high engagement that resonate with your brand.
  • Contribute meaningfully to the conversation by asking questions, providing insights, or sharing relevant experiences.
  • Be authentic, trying to initiate positive connections.
  • Dedicate at least 20-30 minutes daily to build your visibility.
  1. Mastering X algorithm

    Since X has its unique algorithm, it’s crucial to befriend it rather than go against the grain.  

Do’s:

  • Be a reply guy
  • Prioritize long-form content (threads/long-reads)
  • Video content to maximize retention rate per one piece of content
  • Engage with high reputation accounts to boost your reputation score
  • Focus on posting unique insights your audience can’t find elsewhere

Don’ts:

  • Using hashtags
  • Mention X competitors
  • Following too many people 
  • Publishing low-value engagement farming posts
  1. X Spaces

X Spaces is a key part of establishing credibility as a brand. If you are already an established brand with over 100k followers, then you can fairly easily attract a few hundred listeners organically, but for many new brands, you need to co-host and invite guests actually, to get engagement and people listening in.

Step-by-step planning process:

  1. Agree on the name and topic for spaces
  2. Who is going to moderate, and who will speak?
  3. Set Agenda (e.g., 1-15 mins intro/15-45 mins answering questions that are pre-planned/ 45-60 invite guests up to ask questions).
  4. Set length (30, 60 or 90 minutes).
  5. Schedule at least 72 hours in advance & send reminders. (only possible from the mobile app).
  6. Invite high-profile guests to drive engagements (send DMs to people you think would be suitable to talk on the topic).
  7. X Ads

X ads are a great way to get more eyes on your product, but if you don't give any value, the chances of someone converting are close to zero. The upside of X ads is that they have a lower CPM/CPC in comparison to most other platforms. A checklist on how to get a positive return on ad spend on X:

  • Make an irresistible offer people do not want to miss
  • Minimalistic ad creative with clear CTA
  • Target the audience that converts
  • Add social proof
  1. PR & third-party validation

In order to get credibility in your niche, you should be validated by third parties – exactly what we discussed in previous two chapters. So, you need to make sure to leverage PR and influencer posts to literally borrow their credibility and use it as an extension of your own on X. Some proven ways to do that are by:  

  • Putting media features in the banner
  • Quote reposting influencer posts 
  • Announcing both organic and paid features on X

https://preview.redd.it/rpx0162ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=79e453c03ddba737f6dd0731e4553d2f03e89aa7

CHAPTER 6: Piecing it all together

PR, influencer marketing, and X growth are not just a stand-alone tactic but part of a grander scheme of funnel stages, each propelling the crypto ecosystem forward. The funnel stages, often broken down into Top-of-Funnel (TOF), Middle-of-Funnel (MOF), and Bottom-of-Funnel (BOF), serve as a guiding structure for our comprehensive strategy.

  • TOF (Awareness): At this initial stage, the focus is on PR efforts that elevate awareness and educate potential users about the ecosystem. The aim is to craft narratives that resonate with the audience and spread through media outlets, creating a buzz and establishing a presence in the market.
  • MOF (Consideration): Influencers come into play here, leveraging their credibility to engage the community. They bridge the gap between awareness and action, guiding their followers through the funnel with authentic endorsements and relatable content.
  • BOF (Conversion): Here, X marketing strategies are designed to seal the deal. It's about optimizing every interaction on the platform to drive conversions, from a well-crafted profile to engaging posts that encourage final decision-making.

Without revealing any specifics, let’s explore a hypothetical three-stage implementation strategy oriented toward crypto ecosystem growth that we used for one of our recent clients.

  1. Strategy and planning

The journey begins with a meticulous three-week planning phase. During this time, we lay down a clear plan and timeline and create engaging marketing materials. The focus is on crafting a unified message that resonates across all communication channels.

Content briefs are created for influencers, emphasizing alignment with the ecosystem's core narrative. We also prepare press releases to ensure our voice is heard during the execution phase, setting the stage for the story we want to tell.

  1. Execution

In the execution phase, we bring our strategy to life. This involves sharing the content we've prepared with influencers and the media. The campaign's duration is strategically set to 60 days, allowing us to gradually build a robust foundation, generate excitement, and maintain interest in the ecosystem over time.

Quite recently, we ran a 3-stage campaign for a leading crypto ecosystem and structured it in the following way: 

  • First wave of promos: intro to the ecosystem (awareness-building phase)
  • Second wave of promos: highlighting top projects (hype phase)
  • Third wave of promos: top wallets and exchanges (conversion-focused phase)
  1. Optimization

Once the active campaign phase winds down, our attention turns to analysis. We review the campaign's performance, gleaning insights that will inform our strategies for future campaigns. This phase is about learning, adapting, and preparing to re-enter the market with even stronger tactics

Final word 

As you have noticed, effective crypto marketing isn't linear. It's an ecosystem itself, with different elements working simultaneously and each phase feeding into the next, creating a continuous cycle of growth and engagement.

This is what it really takes to hit that delicate balance and achieve a multidimensional approach to attracting various target audiences, including developers, community members, investors, and entrepreneurs simultaneously. This is the only way crypto ecosystems can grow in the current highly competitive space.