TL;DR - GNS has a massive, multi-layered setup for what could be one of the most explosive short squeezes in microcap history.
Key dominoes:
- Feb 13, 2026 ERL share count should expose ~20M synthetic/unverified shares → permanent float reduction
- Aggressive DRS (already 60%+, heading to 80%+), buybacks (Roger using 70%+ of remaining capacity), and insider lockup shrink tradable supply
- RICO + Citadel/Virtu naked short/spoofing lawsuits backed by 3+ years of forensic tracking (former FBI Deputy Director involved) → likely $150–300M+ settlement in late Q2/early Q3 2026 (even $50–100M would be transformative)
- 50/50 legal proceeds split: half to shareholder dividends (cash/BTC), half to BTC treasury growth
- Bitcoin loyalty payments + ASX dual-listing share count add more supply shocks
- End result: tradable float potentially sub-10M, shorts trapped at 35–50%+ effective interest, debt gone, BTC treasury exploding → 100–1,000x+ potential in the "Find Out" year (2026).
This is my personal thesis only — not financial advice. Do your own research.
GNS (Genius Group Limited): A Quantitative Deep Dive into Structural Imbalances, Legal Catalysts, and Asymmetric Upside Potential
Fellow investors and analysts,
As someone who approaches markets through the lens of statistics, data analytics, and corporate finance, I've methodically reviewed the public filings, trade data, court documents, and company disclosures on Genius Group Limited (NYSE American: GNS). What emerges is a compelling case study in how share ownership discrepancies, supply constraints, ongoing litigation, and strategic asset holdings can align to create outsized opportunities.
This is not hype — it's a structured bull thesis built on verifiable data points. I've organized it as a sequence of interconnected "dominoes," where each element strengthens the next toward massive short squeeze potential, float lockup, legal reckonings, and BTC-fueled upside.
Important disclaimer:
This is for informational and discussion purposes only. Microcap stocks carry substantial risks, including volatility, execution uncertainty in legal matters, and potential dilution. Conduct your own due diligence and consult professionals. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected.
Core Business & Real Value Beyond the Squeeze
Beyond the short setup, Genius Group operates a legitimate and growing AI-powered education platform. Through Genius Academy and its micro-learning ecosystem, the company serves millions of users worldwide with courses in entrepreneurship, AI skills, and personal development. Revenue has shown steady improvement (e.g., recent quarters reported ~20–30% YoY growth in key segments), user metrics continue to climb (active users in the millions), and the acquisition of several edtech assets has expanded its reach. The Bitcoin treasury strategy further differentiates it, positioning GNS as a hybrid education + digital asset company with real operational substance — not just a squeeze play. This underlying business provides a fundamental floor and long-term growth narrative that complements the short-term supply dynamics.
Roger Hamilton – Founder & Visionary
Roger James Hamilton is a Singapore-based entrepreneur, author, and the founder & CEO of Genius Group. Born in 1971 in the UK, he studied Economics at the London School of Economics before building a career in investment banking and property investment in Asia. He is best known for creating the Wealth Dynamics personality profiling system (used by over 500,000 people worldwide) and founding Genius Group in 2015 to democratize entrepreneurial education through AI, blockchain, and personalized learning. Hamilton went public with GNS via SPAC merger in 2022 and has aggressively pursued a Bitcoin treasury strategy, viewing BTC as “the hardest money in the world” and the ultimate entrepreneurial asset. His philosophy blends Eastern flow states with Western wealth creation:
"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." - Roger Hamilton (echoing Nelson Mandela)
"The meek shall inherit the earth." - Matthew 5:5
Domino 1: The ERL Spinoff Share Count Exercise (February 13, 2026) – Resolving a Major Ownership Discrepancy
In 2023, Genius Group completed a court-approved spinoff of its subsidiary Entrepreneur Resorts Ltd (ERL). At that time, GNS shareholders were entitled to receive ERL shares at a ratio of approximately 0.1832 ERL shares for each GNS share they owned on the record date (August 2023).
Here’s where the numbers become critical — and where the discrepancy still exists today:
- Total issued GNS shares at the 2023 record date: ~74 million.
- Brokers and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) reported that ~54.4 million of those shares (74%) were held in “street name” (i.e., held through brokers rather than directly registered with the company).
- When the company and its transfer agent asked brokers to verify which of those 54.4 million shares actually belonged to real, identifiable shareholders, only ~17.4 million could be confirmed (32% of the street-name total).
- That left ~37 million shares (68%) unaccounted for — meaning no real owner could be matched to them at the time.
- As a result, only ~9.9 million ERL shares were distributed, leaving ~6.8 million ERL shares (40.9% of the total 16.7 million ERL distribution) unallocated and held aside.
Fast-forward to July 2025: Genius Group signed an Asset Purchase Agreement (APA) to reacquire ERL and bring it back under the GNS umbrella. Under this new structure:
- Each ERL share held by former GNS shareholders will be exchanged for 3 GNS shares.
- This converts the original 16.7 million ERL shares into 50 million GNS shares that are intended for distribution.
These 50 million GNS shares are not yet included in the company’s current reported outstanding share count (approximately 84 million shares as of early February 2026, per recent market data and filings). They remain in escrow and will only be issued and added to the total outstanding once the ownership verification process is complete.
On February 13, 2026, Genius Group will conduct a formal “Share Count Exercise.” The company has notified DTCC and is urging anyone who held GNS shares on the 2023 record date (but whose shares were never verified) to submit documentation proving ownership. The goal is to match real owners to the unallocated portion and resolve the long-standing discrepancy.
What happens next depends on how many claims are verified. Here are the three most likely scenarios, with rough probability estimates based on the size of the documented gap, historical patterns in similar reconciliations, and the company’s public statements:
- High Verification Rate (80%+ of claims matched) — ~25% probability - Almost all of the 50 million GNS shares get distributed to verified owners. → Outstanding shares increase by nearly +50 million (to ~134 million). → This would represent the maximum potential dilution scenario.
- Partial Verification — ~35% probability - A moderate number of claims are matched (say 50–70%). → 25–35 million of the 50 million shares get distributed and added to outstanding. → 15–25 million remain unissued and are effectively retired / not added.
- Confirmed Major Discrepancy (large number of unlocatable / synthetic positions) — 40% probability - A significant portion of the claims cannot be verified (e.g., brokers cannot locate real owners for much of the unaccounted block). → Only the verified portion (29.6 million GNS shares, or 59.1%) gets issued and distributed. → The remaining ~20.4 million shares are not issued and stay held aside (effectively retired to treasury / not entering circulation). → Outstanding shares increase by only +29.6 million (to ~113.6 million). → The unissued 20.4 million never enter the tradable supply — a direct reduction in potential float compared to full distribution. → This outcome would also provide strong documentary evidence of persistent share-creation or delivery failures, bolstering the company’s ongoing litigation against alleged naked short sellers and manipulative counterparties. That added leverage often increases the chances of early settlements to avoid further legal and financial risk.
Key point for new readers — What is DRS and why does it matter here?
Many investors hold stocks through a brokerage account in “street name,” meaning the broker is listed as the owner on the company’s books, even though you’re the beneficial owner. This is convenient for quick trading, but it allows brokers to lend those shares out (e.g., to short sellers) without your direct involvement.
Direct Registration System (DRS) is a simple alternative: You instruct your broker to transfer your shares out of street name and register them directly in your own name on the company’s official books, via the transfer agent (in GNS’s case, VStock Transfer). No physical certificate is needed — it’s all electronic “book-entry” ownership.
How it works step by step (beginner-friendly):
- You contact your broker and request a DRS transfer (often called “DRS your shares”).
- The broker sends the shares to the transfer agent.
- The transfer agent records you as the direct owner in the company’s shareholder registry.
- You receive a DRS statement (like an account summary) from the transfer agent confirming your holdings.
- You can still sell later by transferring shares back to a broker if needed, though it may take a few days longer than a standard brokerage sale.
Benefits especially relevant to GNS:
- Shares in DRS cannot be lent out by brokers to short sellers — they’re removed from the lending pool entirely.
- This directly reduces the number of shares available to borrow, which can increase borrowing costs (CTB) and tighten supply if short interest exists.
- You get communications (dividends, reports, proxies) straight from the company.
- It provides protection against broker issues (e.g., in extreme cases like bankruptcy).
- Genius Group actively encourages DRS and offers incentives like Bitcoin loyalty payments for long-term DRS holders, which helps lock shares away from trading.
Quick explanation of naked short selling (since it ties directly to the discrepancy and litigation angle):
Regular short selling is legal and common: A trader borrows shares from someone who owns them (usually through a broker), sells those borrowed shares on the market (betting the price will drop), and later buys them back cheaper to return to the lender — profiting from the difference.
Naked short selling skips the borrowing step entirely. The seller (or their broker) sells shares they don’t own and haven’t borrowed or located — essentially creating and selling “synthetic” shares that don’t yet exist in reality. When settlement time comes (usually T+2 or T+3 days), if they can’t deliver real shares, it results in a “failure to deliver” (FTD). Persistent FTDs can lead to more synthetic shares circulating than should exist, artificially inflating reported supply and potentially suppressing the price. This practice is generally illegal under U.S. securities laws (Regulation SHO) except in very limited cases (e.g., certain market-maker exemptions), and it’s a core allegation in Genius Group’s lawsuits.
Even in the “worst-case” full-verification scenario, the company has mechanisms (ongoing DRS encouragement, Bitcoin loyalty incentives for long-term holders, and auto-DRS for verified distributions) designed to lock up a large percentage of any newly issued shares quickly. In the more probable major-discrepancy outcome, the float actually ends up tighter than if nothing happened — because you avoid adding the full 50 million while the existing locked shares (especially DRS) remain in place.
Illustrative Share Structure Breakdown: Showing Tradable Float Before & After (Major Discrepancy Scenario)
Current (Pre-Resolution – February 2026 baseline)
| Category | Shares (millions) | % of Total Outstanding | Tradable / Lendable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Outstanding | 84.0 | 100% | — |
| DRS (Book-Entry at VStock) | 52.1 | 62% | No |
| Insider / Restricted Holdings | 7.0 | 8% | Limited |
| Treasury Shares (Buybacks) | 3.0 | 4% | No |
| Total Locked / Non-Lendable | 62.1 | 74% | — |
| Estimated Current Tradable Float | 21.9 | 26% | Yes |
After Major Discrepancy Resolution
(20.4M not issued; 29.6M issued, ~80% assumed to auto-DRS)
| Category | Shares (millions) | % of New Total | Tradable / Lendable? | Change from Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Total Outstanding | 113.6 | 100% | — | +29.6M (verified only) |
| DRS (Existing 52.1M + ~23.7M new auto-DRS’d) | 75.8 | ~67% | No | +23.7M locked |
| Insider / Restricted + Treasury | 10.0 | 9% | Limited/No | +3M (ongoing buybacks) |
| Total Locked / Non-Lendable | 85.8 | 76% | — | Net lockup increase |
| Projected Tradable Float | 27.8 | 24% | Yes | +5.9M net (dilution largely offset by DRS lockup) |
Even after adding verified shares, the percentage of tradable float drops (from 26% to 24%), and the absolute tradable number grows only modestly because so many new shares are expected to move straight into DRS. In a full-verification scenario the dilution would be larger, but the thesis assigns lower probability to that outcome given the historical 68% unverified block.
Bonus context: Insider alignment is already strong and getting stronger
Insider ownership currently sits at approximately 8.6–9.0% of outstanding shares (~7.5–7.6 million shares), with CEO Roger Hamilton as the largest holder. Importantly, insiders have been net buyers throughout 2025:
- Hamilton personally purchased over 1.35 million shares in multiple tranches (notably 650k in June at ~$0.54, 500k in September at ~$0.94, and 200k in October at ~$0.86).
- Additional board members and executives added hundreds of thousands more in September/October.
- Many of these acquired shares are being (or planned to be) moved into DRS, further contributing to the locked portion shown above.
- No meaningful insider sales have been reported in recent periods.
FOMO Ignition from Domino 1
The confirmed major discrepancy (68% unverified) creates the first wave of retail realization: “The reported float has been overstated.” This sparks initial FOMO — volume often 2–3x normal, price appreciation of 20–50% in the weeks following as investors rush to DRS and lock shares, directly causing the first measurable reduction in lendable supply.
This February 13, 2026 event is the first major domino. It directly tests whether the reported share supply is real — and in most realistic scenarios, it sets the stage for a progressively tighter tradable float as we move into the next catalysts.
Heading into Domino 2: Key Stats (Post-Feb 13, Major Discrepancy Scenario – Our ~40% Base Case)
- Verified ERL-to-GNS shares issued & distributed: ~29.6 million (59.1% of the 50M potential)
- Unverified / unlocatable shares not issued (effectively retired to treasury): ~20.4 million
- New total outstanding shares: ~113.6 million
- DRS / locked shares (existing + ~80% of new auto-DRS’d): ~85.8 million
- Projected tradable float: 27.8 million (24% of new outstanding)
- Tradable float change from current: +5.9 million net (dilution largely offset by heavy DRS lockup)
- Tradable float percentage change: Down from 26% → 24%
- Buyback capacity remaining: Still ~12.5 million shares available under the July 2025-approved program
- Insider alignment signal: 100% of Roger Hamilton’s recent open-market purchases actively moving to DRS; over 90% of his total holdings already locked/restricted
- Debt status: Unchanged (~$3.3 million BTC-backed loan still outstanding)
- BTC treasury: Intact — currently holds 84.15 BTC (valued at ~US$7.5–8.4 million at early February 2026 BTC prices around $90,000–$100,000; recently trimmed by selling 96 BTC in late 2025/early 2026 to reduce debt from ~$8.5M to the current $3.3M level)
Domino 2: Progressive Float Tightening Through DRS Momentum, Buybacks, Insider Alignment, and Legal Resolution Tailwinds
Following the February 13, 2026 Share Count Exercise in Domino 1, the next logical layer of supply constraint builds directly from the outcomes. Whether the exercise confirms a major discrepancy (our ~40% base case) or delivers partial-to-high verification, it not only adjusts the outstanding share count but also generates verifiable evidence of ownership gaps. This evidence strengthens the company’s broader litigation portfolio — particularly the ongoing RICO and related claims tied to the prior Fatbrain AI (LZGI) transaction — increasing the likelihood of favorable resolutions that deliver cash and/or share retirements. These proceeds can then be deployed to accelerate float reduction and achieve a near-clean balance sheet.
Here’s how the tightening mechanisms are already in motion and how they compound sequentially:
1. DRS Momentum – Removing Shares from the Lendable Pool
As explained in Domino 1, Direct Registration System (DRS) transfers shares from broker “street name” accounts directly to the shareholder’s name on the company’s books at VStock Transfer. This makes the shares unavailable for lending to short sellers.
Genius Group has actively promoted DRS through clear instructions, ongoing communications, and incentives like Bitcoin loyalty payments for long-term holders. As of late 2025, approximately 62% of outstanding shares were already in DRS form. In a post-ERL resolution scenario (especially with auto-DRS encouragement for newly verified distributions), this figure is projected to climb toward 67–70% or higher.
Quantified DRS Impact (Conservative Modeling):
- Every 5% increase in DRS adoption removes ~4–5.7 million shares from the lendable pool (based on ~84M → 113.6M outstanding range).
- Current 62% DRS → ~52.1M locked → ~32M lendable max.
- Post-Feb 13 at 76% locked → ~86M locked → ~28M lendable max (already ~12% reduction in potential borrow supply).
- Reaching 80% locked (realistic with incentives + auto-DRS) → 90M+ locked → only ~20–23M lendable — a **30–40% drop** in available borrow shares from pre-Feb 13 levels. This directly drives up cost-to-borrow (CTB) rates and days-to-cover, making short positions increasingly painful to maintain.
2. Share Buybacks – Active Retirement of Shares
The company has maintained a consistent share repurchase program to directly reduce outstanding shares and the tradable float.
Key program details:
- In February 2025, the board called an EGM (record date February 24, 2025) to seek approval for a buyback of up to 20% of issued shares (and related share class changes); this was later advanced.
- Full shareholder approval came at the Annual General Meeting on July 7, 2025 (98.8% in favor), authorizing the board to repurchase up to 20% of issued ordinary shares.
- The board passed a resolution on July 8, 2025, delegating execution authority to CEO Roger Hamilton.
- The mandate runs for 12 months (through approximately July 2026 / Q3 2026) or until the next AGM, unless extended by shareholders.
With roughly 84 million shares outstanding at the time of approval, the program permitted repurchase of up to 16.8 million shares. By December 2025, the company had executed four tranches of 1 million shares each (plus additional volume), totaling approximately 4.3 million shares repurchased (only 30% of the permitted amount). This leaves roughly 12.5 million shares still available.
Roger Hamilton is positioned to utilize at least 70% of the remaining capacity (~8.75 million shares) before the July 2026 expiration, accelerating open-market purchases post-ERL resolution and using any legal proceeds. These shares are retired to treasury, directly shrinking the tradable float.
3. Insider Buying and Alignment – Demonstrated Skin in the Game
Insider ownership currently stands at approximately 8.6–9.0% (~7.5–7.6 million shares), with CEO Roger Hamilton as the primary holder. Throughout 2025, insiders — led by Hamilton — were consistent net buyers on the open market, adding over 1.35 million shares in documented tranches:
- June 2025: Hamilton purchased 650,000 shares (~$0.54 average).
- September 2025: Hamilton and other directors/executives added over 600,000 shares collectively (~$0.93–$0.94 average).
- October 2025: Additional purchases, including 200,000 by Hamilton (~$0.86 average).
Importantly, these are not just paper commitments. Company disclosures and updates confirm that over 90% of Roger Hamilton’s total personal holdings are already in locked or restricted form, with 100% of his recent open-market purchases actively being transferred into DRS book-entry. A high percentage of other insider and executive purchases have followed the same path. This level of direct action from the founder and leadership team — moving their own capital into non-lendable, book-entry ownership — sends a powerful message of conviction and directly contributes to the rising DRS percentages. It removes even more shares from the lendable pool and aligns management incentives tightly with long-term shareholders.
4. Legal Resolution Tailwinds – The Fatbrain / RICO Catalyst as a Float-Shrinking Accelerator
Simple background for new readers: In 2024, Genius Group entered an Asset Purchase Agreement (APA) to acquire assets from Fatbrain AI (now LZGI International). The deal involved issuing approximately 7.4 million GNS shares and transferring $6.6 million. Disputes arose quickly, with Genius Group alleging fraudulent inducement, false representations, and an attempt to hijack control of the company — including efforts to execute an illegal boardroom coup while founder/CEO Roger Hamilton was on his honeymoon.
Michael Moe and Peter Ritz (controlling officers/directors of LZGI) have a documented trail of alleged market corruption in microcap companies. This includes patterns of targeting entities, using fraudulent APAs to extract value, diverting millions in funds for personal gain, misappropriating corporate assets, rendering companies insolvent, and employing extortion tactics (such as weaponizing temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions). LZGI shareholders filed suits alleging breach of fiduciary duty and fraud; in July 2025, a Florida court issued a default judgment finding that Moe and Ritz “engaged in fraudulent conduct,” “grossly abused their position,” and “intentionally inflicted harm,” leading to their removal from executive roles. Related SEC complaints have targeted associates for investor fraud and short-selling schemes.
Genius Group filed a civil RICO lawsuit in Florida (March 2025, with amendments) under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, seeking over $750 million in treble damages. The suit alleges a racketeering enterprise involving mail/wire fraud, extortion, and a pattern of looting microcap companies, with Genius as the latest victim. The case remains active as of early 2026, with ongoing proceedings and cooperation from parallel shareholder actions.
Historical precedent for float-restricting squeezes:
This setup echoes Overstock.com (OSTK) in 2020–2022, where aggressive share buybacks, high DRS adoption (locking up nearly half the float at peaks), and a special crypto dividend forced short covering, driving the stock from the $30s to over $100+ in a multi-fold run as the effective tradable supply collapsed. Similar dynamics have played out in other cases where corporate actions (buybacks, dividends, legal resolutions) combined with locked shares to create acute supply shocks against persistent short interest.
The ERL Share Count Exercise feeds naturally into this next domino. The documented 68% verification gap (and any confirmed synthetics or unlocatable positions under our thesis of nefarious activities) provides empirical evidence of persistent share-creation and delivery issues. This materially strengthens the factual record in the RICO and related cases.
Potential sequential impact (post-February 13 catalyst):
Given the default judgment precedent against Moe and Ritz, the emerging ERL evidence of irregularities, and the strength of the RICO claims, I assess a ~65% probability of a favorable resolution for GNS holders (e.g., share rescission/recovery, cash restitution, or settlement). This could include recovery of a substantial portion of the 7.4 million previously issued GNS shares (for retirement to treasury) plus monetary damages. Estimated timeline: Q2 2026 for material resolution or settlement (accelerated by the formalized ERL discrepancy evidence, which could prompt defendants to seek early resolution to limit exposure). In a favorable outcome, proceeds would:
- Directly shrink the float by retiring recovered shares.
- Provide immediate capital to retire the company’s remaining ~$3.3 million Bitcoin-backed loan (its only reported debt), delivering a near-clean balance sheet.
- Fund additional share buybacks and/or Bitcoin treasury additions (per the board-approved 50/50 split on legal proceeds: half to shareholders via dividends, half to BTC purchases).
FOMO Acceleration in Domino 2
The combination of rising DRS percentages, Roger’s accelerated buybacks (at least 70% of remaining capacity executed before Q3 2026 expiration), and early legal momentum creates a self-reinforcing loop. Retail sees verifiable float shrinkage and insider commitment → FOMO intensifies (volume 4–5x baseline, price gains of 50–100%+ in the quarter), as new buyers pile in to secure positions before further supply disappears.
This creates a virtuous cycle: tighter float from Domino 1 → stronger legal position → capital inflow → accelerated buybacks and debt elimination → even tighter float and improved financial health.
Float Progression – Feb 13 to Early Q2 2026
(Major Discrepancy + 70% Fatbrain Recovery: ~5.2M shares retired, ~3M extra buybacks, debt paid, BTC treasury rebuilt)
| Stage | Outstdg (M) | DRS/Locked (M) | % Locked | Tradable Float (M) | % Tradable | Main Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Pre-Feb 13) | 84.0 | 62.1 | 74% | 21.9 | 26% | Baseline DRS + buybacks |
| Post-Feb 13 (Major Discr.) | 113.6 | 85.8 | 76% | 27.8 | 24% | +29.6M verified (mostly DRS), -20.4M not issued |
| Early Q2 2026 (Post-Fatbrain) | 105.4 | 82–84 | 78–80% | 21–23 | 20–22% | -5.2M retired, -3M buybacks, DRS ↑ |
Key Notes on the Progression
- From current to post-Feb 13: Outstanding jumps +35%, but tradable % drops (dilution offset by heavy DRS lockup).
- From post-Feb 13 to early Q2: Outstanding falls back below 110M, tradable float returns to (or below) current levels, % tradable compresses further into low-20s or teens.
- Result: Supply gets progressively tighter even after the initial ERL addition — setting up stronger conditions for later dominoes.
Heading into Domino 3: Key Stats (Conservative 70% Settlement Scenario)
- Fatbrain shares retired: ~5.2 million (70% of 7.4M issued)
- Legal proceeds retained for company use (BTC treasury + buybacks): 70% of net settlement (after any shareholder dividends)
- Debt fully repaid: $3.3 million (clean balance sheet)
- Buyback capacity remaining: ~12.5 million shares still available under the approved program
- Funds available post-debt for BTC purchases or additional buybacks: Substantial dry powder (tens of millions, depending on final settlement size)
- Projected tradable float: Cut to ~18–23 million shares (conservative 21–23M in table; optimistic tail 18–20M with max DRS/buyback execution) → ~17–22% of new outstanding — meaningful further tightening from current levels
This domino falls naturally after the February 13 event because the share count provides the factual foundation that de-risks and accelerates legal outcomes. Combined with ongoing DRS, buybacks, and insider alignment, it creates compounding supply shocks that are difficult for shorts to navigate without covering.
Domino 3: Short Interest, Borrowing Costs, Off-Exchange Volume, and Building Squeeze Pressure
By early Q2 2026 — after the ERL share count resolution (Domino 1) and the compounding float-tightening from DRS momentum, buybacks, insider lockup, and a likely favorable Fatbrain/RICO outcome (Domino 2) — the effective tradable float is projected to sit in the 18–23 million share range (~17–22% of outstanding). This is already a dramatically constrained supply environment for a microcap with persistent short interest.
Now Domino 3 layers on the market structure pressure: elevated short interest, expensive and shrinking borrow availability, high cost-to-borrow (CTB) rates, and heavy off-exchange/dark pool trading that often hides short accumulation. These are classic early-warning signs of a squeeze building when supply keeps disappearing. The company is also advancing a dual listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) via CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs), with DLA Piper engaged as legal advisor. The process is expected to gain momentum in mid-to-late 2026, requiring an additional formal share count and verification to establish the CDI structure. This will provide another catalyst to expose and retire any remaining discrepancies while significantly improving liquidity and opening the stock to a new pool of Australian and Asian retail investors — further tightening effective supply and broadening the shareholder base.
Quantified Short Interest Projections (Thesis Path)
- Current (early Feb 2026): 4.2–4.5 million shares short (5–9% of float).
- Post-Domino 1 (post-Feb 13): ~4.5M shorts / ~27.8M tradable float = ~16% effective short interest → first noticeable pain as borrow availability tightens.
- Post-Domino 2 (early Q2, with Roger executing ~70% of remaining buybacks before Q3 2026 expiration): ~4.5M shorts / ~21–23M tradable = ~19–21% effective; with Roger retiring ~8.75M via accelerated buybacks, tradable float compresses further to ~12–15M → short interest surges to 30%+ of tradable float.
- Domino 3 Peak Pressure: As CTB spikes and dark pool liquidity fails, covering accelerates → effective short % can exceed 35–40% of the shrinking tradable supply in a cascade.
Cost to Borrow (CTB) & Shares Available to Borrow
- Current CTB: 13.9–14.1% annualized (very expensive — top tier for microcaps)
- Shares available to borrow: Frequently limited (hundreds of thousands to low millions at peaks, often drying up intraday)
- Thesis projection: As DRS climbs to 78–80%+ and buybacks/retirements remove millions more, borrow availability collapses further. CTB could spike to 20–50%+ (seen in other high-conviction squeezes when lendable shares drop below 5–10 million). Expensive rolling costs + limited availability = forced covering pressure.
Off-Exchange / Dark Pool Volume
- Recent sessions: 60–71% of daily volume executed off-exchange (dark pools, internalized trades)
- Major players: Citadel Securities and Virtu frequently dominate OTC flow in GNS (accused in company filings of controlling 65–85% of dark pool volume at times)
- Why it matters: High dark pool % can mask short building (sellers avoid lit exchange price impact). When catalysts hit and lit buying surges, dark pool liquidity dries up → price gaps violently as shorts scramble to cover on visible exchanges.
Squeeze Mechanics & Why This Setup Is Explosive
- Supply Shock + Short Pain Loop Float shrinks → fewer shares available to borrow → CTB rises → shorts pay more to hold → more likely to cover → buying pressure → price rises → more covering → repeat. With DRS at 78–80%+, buybacks ongoing (including Roger’s 70% utilization), and the upcoming ASX dual-listing share count, the effective lendable float could drop below 15–20 million — a level where even moderate short interest becomes dangerous.
- FOMO & Buying Pressure Build in Domino 3 Visible short data + spiking CTB + Roger’s buyback acceleration + the ASX listing catalyst creates a clear narrative: “Supply is vanishing while shorts are trapped.” This triggers the strongest FOMO wave yet — volume 8–10x+ baseline, sustained buying pressure that forces covering cascades and price moves of 100–300%+ in compressed timeframes as retail and momentum traders pile in.
Ideas to Drive Tradable Float Below 10 Million
- Aggressive DRS push to 85%+
- Full legal recoveries
- Special dividend / BTC loyalty dividend
- ASX dual-listing share count
- Additional buyback programs
- Targeted treasury cancellations
Heading into Domino 4: Key Stats (Post-Domino 3 Pressure)
- Projected tradable float: ~10–14 million shares (optimistic tail with max DRS + final buybacks + ASX verification)
- Effective short interest: 30–40%+ of tradable float (highly painful).
- CTB projection: 25–60%+ annualized as borrow availability collapses.
- Buyback capacity: Largely utilized (70%+ executed) but new programs possible post-legal inflows.
- Debt: Fully repaid (clean slate).
- BTC treasury: Growing via 50% of legal proceeds + strategic purchases.
- Dual catalysts: ASX listing + BTC dividend announcements → final FOMO wave.
This is the pressure cooker phase: constrained supply meets persistent short interest meets rising borrow pain meets potential catalysts. The dominoes are aligned.
Domino 4: Bitcoin Treasury Upside, 50/50 Legal Proceeds Split, Loyalty Incentives, and the Final Asymmetric Rocket Fuel
By late Q2 / early Q3 2026 — after the ERL share count resolution (Domino 1), aggressive DRS/buyback compression (Domino 2), and acute short pain (Domino 3) — the tradable float is 10–14M shares (9–13% of outstanding), effective short interest 30–40%+, debt zero, Roger has executed 70%+ of buybacks, and ASX share count completed.
Now Domino 4 unleashes the final asymmetric rocket fuel: Genius Group’s Bitcoin-first treasury strategy, direct shareholder BTC upside, loyalty incentives locking more shares, and a dividend structure rewarding holding while amplifying FOMO.
Genius Group BTC Strategy – Overview
Genius Group has adopted a Bitcoin-first treasury strategy, treating BTC as a core balance sheet asset to hedge inflation, build long-term value, and differentiate in edtech. CEO Roger Hamilton views Bitcoin as “the hardest money in the world” and the ultimate entrepreneurial asset. The company uses BTC strategically to eliminate debt and accumulate more through legal proceeds.
Current BTC Holdings (Early February 2026)
- 84.15 BTC (~$7.5–8.4M at $90K–$100K BTC).
- Debt reduced to $3.3M (BTC-backed loan only; no other debt) after strategic sales.
50/50 Legal Proceeds Split (Board-Approved)
- 50% → Special dividends to shareholders (cash or BTC equivalent).
- 50% → Additional Bitcoin purchases for the treasury.
Bitcoin Loyalty Payments
~$0.10 per share equivalent in BTC (or cash) paid periodically to long-term DRS holders, incentivizing DRS adoption and locking more shares from lendable supply.
Quantified BTC Projections Post-Legal Resolution ($100K BTC for simplicity):
- Conservative ($50M gross → $35–38M net): +175–190 BTC → 259–274 BTC (~$26–27.4M), ~0.0024–0.0025 BTC/share
- Base Case ($150–250M gross → $110–180M net): +550–900 BTC → 634–984 BTC (~$63–98M), ~0.006–0.009 BTC/share
- Optimistic ($400M+ gross → $280–300M+ net): +1,400–1,500+ BTC → 1,484–1,584+ BTC (~$148–158M), ~0.013–0.014 BTC/share
Base case (most probable) delivers 7–12× current holdings on a debt-free balance sheet.
- Citadel / Virtu Cases – Evidence, Pressure, Settlement in Late Q2/Early Q3 3+ years tracking (ex-FBI Murphy led) + ERL count evidence of synthetics. SDNY suit ($250M+) alleges spoofing/naked shorts, 65–85% off-exchange dominance.
Most probable: $150–300M+ settlement late Q2/early Q3 (even $50–100M would be transformative; mounting float pressure, CTB spikes make trial risk too high). Comparable RICO/microcap settlements include cases like the $200M+ recovery in the 2018–2020 spoofing actions against several HFT firms and the $100M+ settlements in microcap fraud suits involving similar manipulation patterns. Citadel and Virtu both have histories of regulatory scrutiny (Citadel has paid tens of millions in prior SEC/FINRA settlements for order-marking violations, CAT reporting failures, and short-sale issues; Virtu has faced fines for spoofing, data safeguards breaches, and high-frequency trading violations). They have strong incentives to settle early rather than risk a public trial, treble damages under RICO elements, and further reputational harm — especially in a political climate less tolerant of perceived market-maker excesses.
Powers Domino 4: 50/50 split funds dividends + BTC buys, fueling FOMO.
4. Final Squeeze Amplification & FOMO Cascade
Dividend + loyalty payments → DRS rush, float <10M. BTC growth + ASX visibility → narrative dominance. Short covering → exponential moves.
Heading into Endgame: Key Stats (Late Q2/Early Q3 2026)
- Tradable float: ~8–12M (max DRS + final buybacks + ASX)
- BTC treasury (base): 634–984 BTC ($63–98M)
- Per-share BTC (base): ~0.006–0.009 BTC
- Debt: Zero
- Short interest: 35–50%+ of tradable
- Buybacks: Exhausted (70%+ used), new possible
- Dividends: 50% proceeds (cash/BTC)
- Loyalty: BTC per share → more DRS locks
- ASX: Share count complete → final shock
Endgame: Ultra-low float, short pain, debt-free, BTC treasury, dividends, ASX. FOMO peaks with dividend/BTC announcements. The dominoes are aligned. Supply gone, shorts bleeding, incentives to hold — what happens next?
