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Friday, July 3, 2026
What was the moment Bitcoin went from “an investment” to “a long-term conviction” for you?
For those of you who’ve been in Bitcoin for a while…
What was the moment Bitcoin stopped being “just another investment” and became a long-term conviction?
Was it a specific event, a book, a conversation, surviving a bear market, learning how the network works, or something else entirely?
Looking back, was there a point where your mindset shifted from trying to make money with Bitcoin to simply wanting to own Bitcoin for the long run?
I’d love to hear what changed your perspective.
Thursday, July 2, 2026
craziest dream of my life - december 21st 2012
before I get into this. I want to answer the one most important question.
How do I know this dream actually happened and wasn't something I crafted in hindsight
Because the memory of waking up that day never faded, that one piece, the first few minutes of waking up on my couch. My FIRST thought and I had no idea why at the time. 'I HAVE to buy BITCOIN'
in 2012.
I sat on my front stoop and smoked a cigarette, and promptly forgot. BUT. It stuck in my subconscious. And about 3 weeks later, I ACTUALLY bought bitcoin. Unfortunately, it got lost on the hard drive of that laptop. But I bought like two bitcoin with a christmas debit card/ gift card.
So that night has really slowly come back to me but I just had a huge piece return to me and I remembered generally what was happening throughout the years during this experience. Yes I'm saying years. Because it was literally a decade.
I was sleeping, dreaming... I don't think I was dreaming OF anything. I was just, in darkness. And this wave came over me. Things were pulsing and looked super weird. And I was doing this strange thing. It all made perfect sense to me in the moment. I was like.. waking up in my own dream?
So this went on for like, half a minute I think. And then I just.. knew what to do? For some reason? I went 'out of body' like I literally shot out somewhere through all this darkness. I just remember seeing some geometry, some color, feeling some vibrations and thinking 'ok now go over there' , 'ok now go through that', etc etc like I just knew where I was going.
I ended up back in my own life.. but in some sort of other timeline? I genuinely do not know how this is possible on this scale. I remember talking to people and explaining what just happened. Its really a blur these specific parts. I remember something about telling someone it was a 'test'. TF?
A few things stuck in my memory and those were the really heavily lucid parts. There's definitely some pattern here where the beginning of this experience was highly lucid but as the years went on and I lived my life, it started to turn more 'lead-like', heavy and more convincing, like I forgot that how I ended up on that timeline.
At the core level the same events there played out here in my current life. Same girlfriends, just slightly worse outcomes, same destinations (moved to a certain town at 17, was locked up for a year before that, moved to oregon at 18, moved back at 20, moved to SF at 22 in 2021)
The big difference was I was winning all the fucking time. Good investments, good timing in life overall, great luck, I never ended up homeless. But I had a serious health problem. Or atleast in that life I was calling it a health problem. In hindsight, I think it was my own being trying to communicate with me because I was lost in the dream.
I vividly remember sitting down on the bench at washington square park in SF, in this other timeline, my head went back, I let my jaw hang open and I took a deep breath and stretched. Everything turned to gold shapes and then washed out to white. Then turned black. And literally seconds later I woke up ON MY COUCH. In 2012.
I already forgot about the actual dream by the time I stood up BUT that thought struck me like lightning 'I HAVE to buy BITCOIN' like I had planted it there on purpose
So it started there, ended there. Entirely likely that I never left that couch. All inside my brain? But.. HOW?? And why DECEMBER 21ST 20 FUCKING 12??
I've been thinking about this for YEARS and I'm still wondering if this happened to anyone else. I've asked once or twice and always get a resounding 'no'.
The other thing that stuck out to me about what I DO remember from this other timeline, it was like.. being a civilian in the marvel universe. Reality was constantly cracking open, ending violently, and then we'd wake up COMPLETELY FINE still in the same timeline. Not just me.. but everyone else in the timeline too????
None of that shit happened in this life I'm currently living, none of it. I remember seeing the sun turn black, and then growing these crazy arms that started to swirl around it violently, then one of the arms smacked us and I heard a BANG. Then blackness and I wake up on the floor in the apartment where all that was happening, but the sun is fine.. and things go on. With no fucking explanation??? Sometimes, it felt like these events were interacting directly with me? But whatever that's about.. feels completely blocked out from my memory. Like the peak of a 20 tab acid trip, its just impossible for me to see inside the memory in a meaningful way
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Breakout Faces Its Biggest Test Yet
The US Dollar breakout is stalling at long-term resistance as softer jobs data cools rate-hike expectations. July battle lines drawn.
By : Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade Levels (DXY)
- The US Dollar has rallied more than 4% from the May low after breaking above key resistance.
- The advance is now stalling at long-term downtrend resistance, raising the risk of price inflection.
- A sustained break higher would strengthen the bullish outlook towards major upside objectives while failure could trigger a pullback within multi-month uptrend.
- Softer U.S. jobs data has cooled rate-hike expectations and may limit near-term USD upside. ISM data / FOMC minutes on tap next week.
- Resistance 101.14/21, 101.98 (key), 102.72/99- Support 100.16/42, 99.49 (key), 98.74
The US Dollar breakout is facing its biggest test yet after a sharp rally from the May lows carried DXY into long-term downtrend resistance. The advance has strengthened the broader technical outlook, but price is beginning to stall at a major inflection zone as softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data trims expectations for near-term Fed tightening. With the July opening range taking shape and FOMC minutes due next week, traders are watching whether the Dollar can force a breakout or if resistance triggers a deeper pullback. Battle lines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
US Dollar Price Chart – USD Weekly (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s US Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that DXY was, “trading into pivotal resistance for a third consecutive week with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 99.50 needed to fuel the next leg of this advance.” The index ripped higher the following day with the breakout extending nearly 4.3% from the May low before exhausting last week into longer-term downtrend resistance. The focus is on possible inflection off this slope with the medium-term bullish outlook vulnerable while below.
Initial weekly support now rests with the 2024 low / low-week close (LWC) at 100.16/42 and is backed by the January swing high at 99.49. Note that this level was the origin of the June breakout and losses below this mark would suggest more significant near-term high is in place. Broader bullish invalidation is now raised to the 52-week moving average, which converges on channel support over the next few weeks near ~98.74.
Initial resistance remains with the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline and the objective July open at 101.14/22. Although price did register close above this zone last week, the bulls were unable to clear the upper parallel- look for a break of that slope to fuel the next leg of the rally. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the May 2025 swing high at 101.98 and 102.72/99- a region defined by the 100% extension of the January advance, the 2016 high close, and the 2020 swing high. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- the next major technical consideration does not emerge until the 61.8% retracement near 104.59.
Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade EUR/USD" Guide
https://www.forex.com/en-us/whitepapers/
Bottom line: The U.S. Dollar is responding to resistance at the upper bounds of longer-term bearish structure, and the focus is on a reaction off this zone early in the month. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with breach / weekly close above 101.98 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
The economic calendar is relatively light next week, with the June ISM Services PMI and Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes headlining the docket. While the minutes are unlikely to alter the broader policy narrative, investors will be looking for additional insight into the Committee's inflation outlook and the internal debate surrounding the future path of monetary policy. Although June Non-Farm Payrolls came in weaker than expected, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, suggesting labor market conditions remain broadly consistent with full employment.
With Chair Warsh reaffirming the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, inflation expectations remain the primary driver of both interest rate expectations and the U.S. dollar. Fed funds futures modestly pared expectations for near-term tightening following Thursday's employment report, with markets now pricing roughly a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by October rather than September. That shift in rate expectations has taken some momentum out of the dollar's recent advance and may limit upside in the near term. Stay nimble here into the July opening range and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Reddit Stock Falls 28.2% in 6 Months: Should You Buy the Dip? - Yahoo Finance
Hey r/investing community, I’ve been watching a popular Reddit-themed stock idea emerge in the wild: a notable 28.2% drop over the last six months, with chatter about “buying the dip.” A recent Yahoo Finance article highlights this debate and raises a few practical questions we should all consider before tossing capital at a quick bounce.
What the data says at a glance
- Stock has fallen about 28.2% in six months, a meaningful drawdown that often attracts value-seeking traders.
- The drop is enough to trigger discussions about whether the decline is due to temporary headwinds, company-specific issues, or broader market sentiment.
- Yahoo Finance frames the narrative around the “buy the dip” impulse, which tends to work selectively—more so when fundamentals align with price recovery potential.
Key considerations before deciding to buy the dip
- Fundamental health : Check earnings trajectory, margins, cash flow, debt levels, and any one-off events. A decline could reflect temporary problems or structural issues.
- Catalysts : Are there near-term catalysts (product launches, regulatory approvals, cost-cutting measures, new contracts) that could spur a rebound? Or is the stock facing longer-term headwinds?
- Valuation : Compare valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) against historical ranges and peers. A 28% drop can be attractive, but only if earnings power supports it.
- Technical setup : Is the stock oversold, forming a bullish divergence, or simply grinding through support levels? Bitcoin-like dips don’t always translate to reversals.
- Risk tolerance : How much capital are you comfortable tying up? Dips can become deeper if the fundamental narrative deteriorates or market sentiment shifts.
- Time horizon : Is this a short-term bounce play, or do you expect a multi-quarter recovery? Align your position size with your horizon.
- Position sizing and risk controls : Use stop-losses or trailing stops, and avoid concentrating bets solely on a single story from social chatter.
What I’d want to confirm before loading up
- Latest earnings release: any guidance revisions, cost pressures, or changes in customer mix?
- Cash runway and debt maturity schedule: does the company have enough liquidity to weather a potential downturn?
- Mixture of insider activity or institutional stance: are big players accumulating or exiting?
- Macro backdrop: how is the sector performing relative to peers, and are there systemic risks at play?
Possible scenarios
- Bull case : Fundamentals stabilize or improve, catalysts materialize, and the stock recovers part or all of the decline, yielding a favorable risk/reward.
- Base case : The price consolidates near support with low downside risk; sentiment improves gradually as earnings meet expectations.
- Bear case : Structural issues worsen, or external shocks hit the sector; downside risks persist or deepen, making a rebound slower than expected.
My personal approach (what I’d consider sharing with you all)
Given a 28% six-month drawdown, I’d want to see a clear, near-term catalyst and solid improvement in fundamental metrics before committing additional capital. If the company has tangible improvements in margins, cash flow, and debt management, coupled with a plausible growth path and attractive valuation versus peers, I’d consider a modest, risk-controlled position—preferably as part of a diversified basket rather than a large single-name bet. If there’s ambiguity on key catalysts or if the downside risk remains high relative to potential upside, I’d pass or use a smaller, hedged approach until more clarity emerges.
Open questions for the thread
- What are your takeaways from the recent earnings call or press releases?
- Which catalysts do you think could unlock value in the next 1–3 quarters?
- How would you structure position sizing if you’re adding exposure now?
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance. I’m sharing observations to spark discussion and refine our collective understanding of when dip-buying makes sense—and when it doesn’t.
Source reference: Yahoo Finance coverage on “Reddit Stock Falls 28.2% in 6 Months: Should You Buy the Dip?” article, which discusses the dip framework and investor psychology around social-driven stock ideas. Link: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQZVctdVVvOTJRcnBObXg0V1RTNDNYVXFyUVJNVmc5aTM0bzZ4VWVubkpaNWdoMXhTenZudmZtVUJ0ZFJfX09RZ2tLZjNmQ3YxTzhFcWNYUXM5Z01CSE1TSmVYNWVkQTZ1b1B4cThMbU56a05lMm9BUFNNNzlhQ0QzRnUyRUlxN0dSUXlqZXdfeEhSdw?oc=5
World Launches As The Solana Prediction Market
Source: https://x.com/world_xyz/status/2072311111638987054
millions wondered "what is world xyz?"
world is the @solana prediction market
world is live in @phantom with @chainlink as oracle infra
world is how the world trades what happens next
world is just getting started
https://reddit.com/link/1ukxhir/video/sjlr69objoah1/player
Source: https://x.com/world_xyz/status/2072306098837635377
World Launches as the Solana Prediction Market
This morning, we are excited to announce that World is live, bringing crypto and World Cup prediction markets to
@Solana — available to trade in @Phantom with @Chainlink as primary oracle infrastructure.
Full story by @CoinDesk from @FranciscoMemor:
NEW YORK, July 1, 2026 – World launches today as the Solana-native, fully onchain prediction market. World is live in Phantom with market resolution and data powered by Chainlink.
World opens with markets across crypto prices and the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, giving anyone with a Solana wallet the ability to predict outcomes on events that matter most, from Bitcoin's next move to who lifts the trophy.
Most prediction markets have historically relied on centralized infrastructure, requiring users to move funds off-chain, trust opaque systems, and navigate friction at every step. World eliminates that. Every market, every position, and every settlement happens onchain.
Users interact with real Solana liquidity, not a custodial wrapper. Funds never leave their wallets until they choose to participate in a market. The result is a prediction market that operates with the transparency and finality of the blockchain itself.
At launch, World offers markets on crypto prices, including short-duration Bitcoin up/down markets and international football, with the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup providing the first major real-world event slate. Additional markets across crypto, sports, geopolitics, and macroeconomics are planned in the weeks following launch.
“Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain,” said Pedro Miranda (u/Pedromiranda), Head of Consumer, Solana Foundation. “World is designed to show what Solana makes possible: real-time markets, onchain settlement, and a user experience that meets people where they are.”
By launching inside Phantom, the most widely used wallet in Solana, World is immediately accessible to tens of millions of active users without requiring a separate app download or additional wallet setup. Users open Phantom, navigate to prediction markets, access the World integration, and begin participating in trades in seconds. World uses $CASH as its settlement stablecoin, enabling fast, low-cost, automatic redemptions of winning positions natively on Solana.
"Prediction markets thrive on near-instant, low cost settlement, and that's what CASH enables for World. We're excited to see prediction markets grow on Solana, bringing dynamic markets to millions of users fully onchain," said Will McComb (@willums_), Product Manager, Money Movement at Phantom.
The Phantom integration is the first of multiple frontend distribution partnerships World is activating across both the traditional fintech and crypto ecosystems throughout July.
On the backend, World has partnered with Chainlink to overcome legacy prediction market oracle solutions, which create slow human-controlled resolutions and uncertain outcomes. Via Chainlink Data Streams and the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE), World gains high-speed data and can deliver immediate resolution to power its advanced, Solana-native markets.
“We’re excited to see the premier prediction market on Solana adopt Chainlink as its primary oracle infrastructure. World’s integration of Chainlink is a major milestone in the broader industry trend of leading prediction markets moving away from human-driven legacy oracle solutions, to advanced decentralized oracle infrastructure that unlocks immediate market resolutions and positions the space to scale to trillions in volume.” — Johann Eid (@EidJohann), Chief Business Officer, Chainlink Labs.
World is available now at world.xyz and inside Phantom on iOS, Android, and desktop.
About World
World is Solana's native, fully onchain platform for self-custodial prediction market trading. The platform delivers real-time onchain performance, with fast routing, near-zero revert rates, instant settlement, and automatic redemption. Market coverage spans crypto price predictions and is expanding rapidly into sports, politics, and culture. World is how the world trades what happens next. Learn more at world.xyz.
About Phantom
Phantom is on a mission to connect the world to the freedom of open markets. Phantom has a community of more than 20 million people who use it to move, manage, and own their money on the internet. Built on self-custody, Phantom gives anyone one app to control their assets and trade markets that never close, from tokens and perpetuals to prediction markets (only available to users in certain jurisdictions). Through its in-app money suite and CASH, the first stablecoin built on Bridge and Stripe's Open Issuance platform, Phantom turns crypto rails into everyday money that always stays under your control. For more information, visit phantom.com.
About Chainlink
Chainlink is the industry-standard oracle platform bringing the capital markets onchain and the market leader powering the majority of DeFi. The Chainlink stack provides the essential data, interoperability, compliance, and privacy standards needed to power advanced blockchain use cases for institutional tokenized assets, lending, payments, stablecoins, and more. Since inventing decentralized oracle networks, Chainlink has enabled tens of trillions in transaction value and now secures the vast majority of DeFi.
Many of the world’s largest financial services institutions have also adopted Chainlink’s standards and infrastructure, including Swift, Euroclear, Mastercard, Fidelity International, UBS, S&P Dow Jones Indices, FTSE Russell, WisdomTree, ANZ, and top protocols such as Aave, Polymarket, Lido, Lighter, and many others. Chainlink leverages a novel fee model where offchain and onchain revenue from enterprise adoption is converted to LINK tokens and stored in a strategic Chainlink Reserve. Learn more at chain.link.
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