Bitcoin’s Most Important Level is $67k. Here’s the Framework.

Over the last few months I’ve been trying to build a Bitcoin framework that combines macro liquidity with market structure instead of relying primarily on RSI, moving averages, or trend lines.

My current base case is this:

If Bitcoin cannot reclaim and establish acceptance above ~$67k, I think the probability of a much deeper repricing increases.
I’m saying $67k is the level that determines whether I stay constructive or become materially more defensive.

Here’s why.

First Principle: Stop Looking Only at Price
Most technical analysis answers one question:“Where has price been?”
That’s useful.But I think institutions care far more about another question:
“Where is everyone’s money?”
If you’re managing billions of dollars, you’re less interested in where Bitcoin printed candles six months ago than you are in where capital actually changed hands.
That’s where:large inventory was accumulated,participants became profitable or underwater,trapped positions developed,and supply/demand tended to emerge.
That’s why my framework revolves around Volume Profile and Anchored VWAP.

1. Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP)
For anyone unfamiliar with it:
Imagine Bitcoin trades between $60k and $70k for several months.
Price visits every level, but volume isn’t evenly distributed.
Maybe:very little Bitcoin trades at $62k,a huge amount trades at $67k,moderate volume trades at $65k.
FRVP ignores time.
Instead it asks:“Where did the market actually conduct the most business?”
The largest volume node is called the Point of Control (POC).
Think of it as the market’s fair value for that specific auction.
It’s where buyers and sellers agreed more than anywhere else.
Institutions watch these areas because they represent genuine inventory not arbitrary lines on a chart.

2. Anchored VWAP (AVWAP)
Anchored VWAP is probably my favourite institutional tool.
Instead of calculating a simple average price, it calculates the volume-weighted average price from a specific event.
I anchored mine to two structural events:
Spot Bitcoin ETF approval (January 11, 2024)
Bitcoin Halving (April 2024)
The question AVWAP answers is:
“What is the average volume-weighted cost basis of participants since this event?”Why does that matter?
Because markets behave differently above and below average cost. When the price trades above the AVWAP:The average participant is in profit.
Psychology is generally constructive.
When price trades below AVWAP:The average participant measured from that anchor is below cost basis.
Some investors hold. Some reduce risk. Some wait for breakeven. Some add.
The point isn’t that everyone reacts the same way.
The point is that cost basis matters.
Right now both of my Anchored VWAPs are sitting around $85k.
Current price is around $64k.
That’s a meaningful gap. Every BITCOIN holder from SPOT BITCOIN ETF approval to BITCOIN HALVING holder is underwater.

3. Anchored Volume Profile (AVP)
AVP asks a different question.
Instead of:“Where has volume traded recently?”
It asks:“Where has volume accumulated since this structural event?”
That allows you to estimate where longer-term inventory has actually been built.
Again…
We’re not looking at price.
We’re looking at inventory.

Why ~$67k Matters
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Three completely independent methodologies all converge in almost exactly the same place.
Fixed Range Volume Profile
Point of Control:
~$66,961

Anchored Volume Profile
Largest inventory node:
~$67k

Anchored VWAP
Lower statistical band from the ETF/Halving Anchors:
Again…
~$67k
One indicator can be noise.
Two can be coincidence.
Three independent methodologies identifying essentially the same level immediately gets my attention.
To me, that isn’t simply “resistance.”
It’s an area where:maximum business has been conducted,significant inventory exists,and institutional cost basis begins interacting with current price.

The Macro Problem
Charts don’t exist in isolation.
This market structure is developing during a quarter that could present several liquidity headwinds.
Among the things I’m watching:
Significant U.S. Treasury borrowing needs.
A Federal Reserve that still appears committed to restrictive policy.
The possibility that higher yields continue to compete with risk assets.
Japanese capital repatriation and its potential effect on global liquidity.
None of these guarantee lower prices.
But collectively they make me question whether Bitcoin has enough macro support to absorb heavy inventory overhead.

My Confirmation Trigger
I’m deliberately keeping this simple.
I don’t care about intraday wicks.
I don’t care about a four-hour breakout.
I want to see:
Two consecutive daily closes above ~$67k.
Why?
Because one close can simply be emotion.
Two consecutive closes suggest the market is beginning to accept value above that region instead of merely testing it.
That’s a concept borrowed from Auction Market Theory. Price can visit a level. Acceptance is different.

If We Fail There…
If Bitcoin repeatedly rejects ~$67k while macro conditions remain restrictive, my working hypothesis is that the market remains in distribution rather than beginning a new expansion phase.
The next major area I’m watching is approximately:
$43k.
Why?
Because that’s where I see the next significant historical value area based on the ETF-era volume profile.
Markets often move from one area of accepted value toward another.
Again…
I’m not saying Bitcoin has to trade there.I’m saying that’s the next area I would consider structurally important if the current auction fails.

How This Thesis Dies
This is the most important section.
I’m not emotionally attached to this idea.
I’d abandon it if the evidence changed.
Specifically if Bitcoin:
achieves two consecutive daily closes above ~$67k,establishes sustained acceptance above that region,continues seeing strong ETF inflows,and does so alongside improving liquidity conditions.

If that happens, I’ll revise the framework.
Good analysis shouldn’t be about defending a prediction.
It should be about updating probabilities as new information arrives.

Final
Price tells you where the market is.
Volume Profile tells you where business has been conducted.
Anchored VWAP estimates the average cost basis since important structural events.
Macro liquidity tells you whether the environment is becoming more or less supportive.
When those four things begin telling the same story, I pay attention.

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/16/2026)

Reinvented to keep you in control, it's where your edge begins with better information. Go from market noise to clarity in seconds with a real-time platform built to redefine how traders and investors digest financial news.

Visit www.marketflux.io

Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (07/16/2026):

Top Stories

Trump Meets Senators on Crypto Bill as US-Iran Conflict Escalates with Red Sea Blockade Threats

President Trump discusses cryptocurrency legislation with senators while US-Iran tensions intensify following American strikes. Iran warns of retaliation if infrastructure is targeted, reportedly instructing Houthis to close Red Sea shipping routes. Ukraine faces political crisis after dismissing defense minister amid ongoing war efforts.

Bitcoin Falters at $65K Resistance as Analysts Eye Support Levels

Bitcoin's attempted breakout above $65,500 failed, with the cryptocurrency retreating to trade between $63,800-$64,000. Analysts now focus on key support at $62,500, with some warning of potential tests down to $61,000 amid persistent selling pressure.

Company News

Unitedhealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  1.15%

5D Change:  -1.93%

News Volume:  148

Unusual Volume Factor:  10x

UnitedHealth Crushes Q2 Expectations, Raises Full-Year Outlook as Medical Costs Decline

UnitedHealth Group reported second-quarter results that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, driving shares up 6% to a 52-week high of $452. The health insurance giant posted revenue of $112.0 billion versus estimates of $110.8 billion, while adjusted earnings per share reached $6.38, crushing the consensus estimate of $4.85 and marking a 56% year-over-year increase. The standout metric was the company's medical care ratio, which came in at 86.7% compared to expectations of 88.6%, representing a 270 basis point improvement year-over-year. This indicates UnitedHealth successfully controlled medical costs, a key concern for investors. UnitedHealthcare's operating income surged 86% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, nearly doubling analyst projections of 40.7% growth. Based on the strong performance, UnitedHealth raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $19.50 to $20 per share, marking the second guidance increase this year. The company's quarterly profit reached $5.4 billion as cost pressures continued to ease. The earnings beat lifted the broader healthcare sector, with insurance stocks rallying on UnitedHealth's improved outlook. Analysts responded positively, with Bank of America reiterating its Buy rating and Piper Sandler raising its price target to $477. JPMorgan analysts characterized the results as a reset to earnings and guidance for 2026. Despite rare revenue declines in both the UnitedHealthcare and Optum segments during the quarter, and ongoing Medicare losses, investors focused on the company's ability to manage costs and improve profitability. The strong results contributed to gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, where UnitedHealth is a major component. Market observers described the performance as evidence that the company's turnaround is in full force, with UnitedHealth regaining earnings momentum after previous challenges.

Continue reading

Atai Beckley Inc. (ATAI)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  33.4%

5D Change:  33.64%

News Volume:  25

Unusual Volume Factor:  25x

Eli Lilly Acquires Psychedelics Maker AtaiBeckley for Up to $3.8 Billion

Eli Lilly agreed to acquire AtaiBeckley for up to $3.8 billion, marking a major pharmaceutical entry into psychedelic treatments. The deal includes $6.75 per share in cash upfront, valuing the company at approximately $2.8 billion, plus contingent value rights worth up to $2.50 per share tied to milestones for experimental drugs BPL-003 and VLS-01. The upfront price represents roughly a 40% premium to AtaiBeckley's 30-day volume-weighted average price. AtaiBeckley shares surged 34% in pre-market trading on the news. The acquisition aims to advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression and other mental health conditions. A law firm announced it is investigating whether shareholders are receiving fair value in the transaction.

Continue reading

J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  8.01%

5D Change:  3.72%

News Volume:  48

Unusual Volume Factor:  16x

JB Hunt Shares Surge 8% on Strong Q2 Earnings Beat

JB Hunt Transport Services reported second-quarter 2026 results that exceeded analyst expectations, driving shares up approximately 8% in premarket trading. The company posted revenue of $3.5 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with earnings per share climbing 45%. The trucking giant delivered record growth and shareholder returns despite ongoing pricing pressure in the trucking sector. Investors focused on improving intermodal freight volumes as a positive indicator. Following the earnings release, multiple analysts raised their forecasts on the stock. CFRA was among several firms issuing positive commentary on the results. The strong performance came as unusual options volume increased for the stock.

Continue reading

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -4.44%

5D Change:  -0.68%

Google Faces AI Setback as Gemini 3.5 Pro Delayed Months, EU Orders Platform Access for Rivals

Alphabet shares tumbled 4.4% on July 16, erasing $200 billion in market capitalization, after Bloomberg reported that Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model is running months behind schedule. The delay stems from disappointing results in improving the model's coding capabilities, with internal frustration mounting among engineers and managers concerned about losing competitive ground to OpenAI and Anthropic. The European Union simultaneously issued binding orders requiring Google to open its Android operating system and search data to AI and search engine competitors under the Digital Markets Act. The directive mandates that Google give rival AI companies equal access to Android features and share search information with competing online providers. Despite the setbacks, Wall Street analysts maintained optimism about Alphabet's near-term prospects. Bank of America Securities raised its price target to $430 ahead of the company's July 22 earnings report, citing expected strength in cloud computing growth. The firm projects Alphabet could exceed estimates on cloud performance and potential gains from its Anthropic investment. Citi forecasts that Google, Meta, and Amazon will collectively spend over $800 billion on capital expenditures in 2027. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it has built a $21 billion stake in Alphabet, though Buffett indicated he now favors four or five other Berkshire holdings more strongly. His hand-picked successor Greg Abel has nearly 30% of Berkshire's $351 billion portfolio concentrated in Apple and Alphabet. Microsoft reportedly trained its sales force to promote proprietary AI models over competitors including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, intensifying rivalry in the enterprise AI market. Meanwhile, Intel announced an expanded partnership with Google Cloud to deploy Gemini AI across its workforce. The EU also upheld an $854,250 fine against Google for Italian gambling advertising violations. Switzerland launched a separate antitrust investigation into Google's removal of the Android search choice screen outside the EU.

Continue reading

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  10.8%

5D Change:  4.72%

Abbott Laboratories Surges 14% on Strong Q2 Beat and Raised Profit Outlook

Abbott Laboratories delivered a decisive second-quarter earnings beat on Thursday, sending shares up 14% in their best single-day performance since 2002. The healthcare giant reported Q2 revenue of $12.59 billion, exceeding the $12.50 billion estimate, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.31 versus the $1.28 consensus. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45-$5.60, up from the previous range of $5.38-$5.58, while maintaining comparable sales growth expectations of 6.5% to 7.5%. The guidance increase topped Wall Street expectations and drove the stock to a three-month high. Diagnostics emerged as the standout performer, with revenue jumping 42.3% year-over-year to $3.09 billion. Medical devices also contributed significantly to the quarter's strength, with management citing robust demand for cardiovascular products as a key driver of the improved outlook. Despite the strong top-line performance, net income fell 47.8% year-over-year to $928 million, while operating income declined 17.5% to $1.69 billion. Operating expenses rose 19.9% to $10.9 billion, with research and development spending up 22.9% to $892 million, reflecting continued investment in product development. The earnings beat and guidance raise marked a turning point for Abbott, which had faced investor skepticism in recent quarters. The stock broke through its 100-day moving average on heavy trading volume, though analysts noted the shares remain below longer-term downtrend levels. Abbott's performance across most business segments, particularly the surge in diagnostics and strength in heart devices, demonstrated the company's diversified revenue base and ability to execute amid a challenging healthcare environment.

Continue reading

Ge Aerospace (GE)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -4.03%

5D Change:  -3.69%

GE Aerospace Crushes Q2 Estimates, Raises Full-Year Outlook Despite Stock Decline

GE Aerospace reported second-quarter results that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.02 versus the $1.86 estimate and revenue of $12.63 billion against the $11.86 billion forecast. The company's adjusted free cash flow of $3.03 billion substantially surpassed the $1.98 billion estimate, driven by strong engine demand and robust commercial aviation services. The aerospace manufacturer raised its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted EPS of $7.65 to $7.85, up from the previous estimate of $7.56, and increased its free cash flow outlook to $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion from the prior range of $8 billion to $8.4 billion. Commercial Engines & Services revenue reached $9.73 billion, beating the $9.16 billion estimate, as airlines maintained strong maintenance spending levels. Despite the impressive financial performance, GE Aerospace shares declined in premarket and regular trading. Analysts attributed the stock's weakness to concerns about margin pressure, cooling order growth momentum, and valuation considerations. Total orders grew 16.2 percent, representing a deceleration from previous quarters' booming growth rates. During the earnings call, management addressed concerns about GEnx engine delivery delays, stating that Boeing has months of engine supply available and that engine supply would not constrain Boeing's 787 production ramp. The company emphasized that strong growth across its commercial aviation business drove the raised outlook despite ongoing industry delivery challenges. Separately, GE HealthCare announced a 10-year, $500 million partnership with Catholic Health to expand patient access to imaging and AI technology across Long Island.

Continue reading

Geopolitics Events

US-Iran Conflict Escalates as Shipping Risks Mount and Ukraine Faces Political Crisis

The United States intensified military strikes against Iran, hitting locations near Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas along the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media reports. Tehran characterized the confrontation as an "existential war" and warned that control of Hormuz represents an "unbreakable red line." Iran reportedly instructed Yemen's Houthis to prepare closing the Bab al-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if US forces target Iranian power infrastructure, threatening a potential "infrastructure for infrastructure" war. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has declined as few vessels risk transit amid the renewed hostilities. In Ukraine, a political crisis emerged after President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after only six months in office, sparking public protests. Fedorov, credited with convincing SpaceX to block Russian military access to Starlink, clashed with top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi over military strategy. Ukraine's parliament separately approved a new government under Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi, though defense and foreign ministers were excluded from the vote under Ukraine's constitutional system. President Trump faces multiple controversies involving potential conflicts of interest. Federal regulators opened an investigation into Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, who allegedly made over $100,000 in profits on Kalshi prediction market bets regarding Trump's speeches using advance knowledge. Separately, financial disclosures revealed Trump purchased stocks in Nvidia, Tesla and American Eagle shortly before posting favorable comments about these companies on Truth Social. Trump Media announced plans to sell faster access to the president's social media posts to businesses. Trump is scheduled to meet with Republican senators today regarding cryptocurrency legislation known as the Clarity Act. He is also expected to deliver a national address focused on election-related claims. The administration announced plans to limit student visas to four years and shift counterterrorism focus toward left-wing groups, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Malaysia ordered immediate deportation of Israeli nationals as authorities investigate claims Israelis entered the country, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim citing Malaysia's non-recognition of Israel. Airlines are gradually restoring Middle East services following the Iran conflict disruptions.

Continue reading

US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.55%, Highest Since August

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.55% this week, marking its highest level since August, according to Freddie Mac. The increase, driven by Middle East tensions and inflation concerns, is cooling housing demand as higher borrowing costs price out first-time buyers and contribute to declining home sales.

Continue reading

U.S. Business Sales Surge 2.1% as Retail Growth Slows and Grocery Sales Decline

U.S. business sales jumped 2.1% in May while inventories rose just 0.3%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio down to 1.28 from 1.30, indicating demand outpaced restocking. However, retail sales growth slowed last month, and grocery unit sales fell 1.8% in June. Tech stocks dragged markets lower, while soybean exports were driven by Chinese demand.

Continue reading

Iran Threatens Red Sea Closure Through Houthis if U.S. Strikes Power Grid

Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, according to sources cited by Reuters. The threat creates a potential second energy chokepoint alongside the already-closed Strait of Hormuz, escalating pressure on global oil trade routes.

Continue reading

Earnings Events

Netflix Q2 Earnings in Focus as Stock Falls 20% Year-to-Date

Netflix reports second quarter results after market close, with shares down nearly 20% this year. Investors watch for earnings per share performance and CEO Ted Sarandos' commentary on competition, gaming, live events, and potential mergers and acquisitions.

Continue reading

Abbott Laboratories Raises 2026 Profit Guidance After Beating Second-Quarter Estimates

Abbott Laboratories exceeded second-quarter revenue and earnings expectations, prompting the company to increase its fiscal 2026 profit outlook above analyst consensus, driven by strong performance across its business segments, particularly heart devices.

Continue reading

Citizens Financial Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Private Banking Strength

Citizens Financial Group exceeded second-quarter expectations with earnings surpassing estimates by $0.06, driven by robust private banking growth, higher interest income, and increased fee revenue.

Continue reading

GE Aerospace Beats Q2 Estimates on Strong Engine Demand and Cash Flow

GE Aerospace reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.02, beating estimates of $1.86, while revenue reached $12.63 billion versus expectations of $11.86 billion. Adjusted free cash flow of $3.03 billion significantly exceeded the $1.98 billion estimate. Commercial Engines and Services revenue totaled $9.73 billion, surpassing the $9.16 billion forecast. The company raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance to $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion from a prior range of $8 billion to $8.4 billion.

Continue reading

Wipro Q1 Profit Flat at Rs 3,352 Crore as Margins Hit 15-Quarter Low

Wipro reported first-quarter net profit of Rs 3,352 crore, remaining flat year-over-year but declining 4.3-4.7% sequentially. Revenue rose 10.6% annually to Rs 24,480 crore, missing analyst estimates. EBIT margins compressed to 16%, the lowest level in 15 quarters, pressured by wage increases and AI investments. The company declared an interim dividend of Rs 2 per share, payable by August 14. Despite the margin squeeze, Wipro shares gained 2% ahead of the earnings announcement as the Sensex closed flat.

Continue reading

Technology Events

Tech Sector Faces Reckoning as AI Investment Surge Meets Profitability Questions

The artificial intelligence trade is entering a critical phase as investors grapple with mounting concerns over returns on massive AI infrastructure spending. Semiconductor stocks face what analysts describe as "do or die" time, with chipmakers experiencing sustained weakness despite TSMC reporting record profits driven by AI demand and a 20% surge in high-performance computing revenue. The Federal Reserve's Logan warned that AI investment surges could trigger nonlinear price increases, noting demand effects are already present while productivity benefits may take longer to materialize. This uncertainty is prompting strategic shifts, with UBS identifying quality stocks outside the AI theme and funds like SCHD positioned as havens from potential AI bottleneck risks. Big Tech earnings are placing renewed focus on AI spending justification. Meta is addressing concerns through expanded data center plans, while Intel announced integration of Gemini-powered AI across its workforce. The investment landscape is fragmenting, with the AI trade migrating from chips to electricity infrastructure, where seven power stocks have gained up to 86%. Market dynamics show mixed signals. Wedbush favors Google and Amazon over Meta among hyperscalers, while Oppenheimer highlights physical AI stocks and fund managers select Micron as a top pick. Hardware corrections triggered massive server selloffs at Supermicro, and the neocloud trade unraveled with Nebius sinking 13%. India achieved its second AI unicorn in a month, while Europe faces questions about falling behind in the AI race. New developments include Nebius launching an asset-light AI cloud model and NetApp acquiring DataPelago to make data AI-ready at the infrastructure layer.

Continue reading

Japan Partners with Nvidia on $140MW AI Factory for Robotics Development

Japan is building a major AI infrastructure with Nvidia, purchasing 27,500 Rubin chips for a 140MW facility backed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The factory, developed with partner Noetra, will feature 13,750 Vera CPUs and support trillion-parameter model training for robotics and digital twins. Fujitsu and leading Japanese robotics firms will utilize Nvidia technology for physical AI applications, with the datacenter scheduled to go online in June 2028.

Continue reading

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Falters at $65K Resistance as Analysts Eye Support Levels

Bitcoin's attempted breakout above $65,500 has failed, with the cryptocurrency now trading between $63,800 and $64,000. Analysts are refocusing on key support levels at $62,500 and $61,000 as selling pressure mounts. The failed rally comes amid mixed signals, with altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin also facing critical technical tests that could determine broader market direction.

Continue reading

Visa Launches Stablecoin Platform for 200 Million Merchants Worldwide

Visa has introduced a new platform enabling stablecoin services including minting, movement, and management for financial institutions, potentially bringing digital dollar payments to over 200 million merchants across its global network of 4.8 billion users.

Continue reading

Citadel Securities Invests $400M in Crypto.com at $20B Valuation

Crypto exchange Crypto.com secured a $400 million investment from market maker Citadel Securities, valuing the platform at $20 billion in a significant institutional backing for the cryptocurrency industry.

Continue reading

Major Financial Institutions Expand Cryptocurrency Trading and Investment Options

Morgan Stanley's E*Trade launched spot trading for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. T. Rowe Price introduced a crypto ETF featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana exposure. Visa unveiled a stablecoin platform for onchain minting and management, while Kraken expanded USD-settled crypto options trading.

Continue reading

Stock Markets Events

S&P 500 and Nasdaq decline as semiconductor stocks face renewed selling pressure

Major U.S. stock indexes traded mixed with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling as chipmakers weakened, while crude oil prices edged higher during the session.

Continue reading

S&P 500 Futures Decline on Semiconductor Weakness Despite Iran Negotiation Signals

U.S. stock futures fell in premarket trading, led by weakness in semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged lower while Dow futures showed mixed performance. President Trump indicated Iran wants to negotiate, though chip sector pressure dominated market sentiment.

Continue reading

Oil And Gas Events

Chevron Pursues Iraq Pipeline Alternative as Hormuz Crude Flows Drop Amid Iran Tensions

Chevron will sign memorandums of understanding with Iraq to explore creating alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz for transporting oil from the West Qurna 2 and Nassiriya oilfields, according to the Wall Street Journal. The move comes as observed crude flows through the strategic waterway have dropped sharply to approximately 5.5 million barrels per day from 9.4 million barrels a week earlier, following recent Iranian attacks. Oil futures settled lower Friday in choppy trading despite the heightened geopolitical tensions. Brent crude declined 72 cents to $84.23 per barrel, while WTI fell 65 cents to $78.95 per barrel. The White House characterized recent price increases as temporary disruptions in the oil market. Ship-to-ship transfers have been observed off Oman's coast as tankers continue navigating through Hormuz before offloading cargoes onto other vessels. Iraq's energy ministry confirmed crude oil loadings remain ongoing at southern terminals, denying earlier reports of suspensions. Despite the escalating conflict and continued U.S. military pressure, Iran has shown no signs of backing down. However, crude oil prices slumped as Iran left the door open for negotiations. U.S. natural gas futures fell to two-month lows on rising output and ample storage.

Continue reading

Houthi Leader Threatens Saudi Oil Infrastructure Over Potential Yemen Escalation

Yemen's Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi warned that all Saudi oil facilities and vital infrastructure would become targets if Riyadh participates in what the group calls comprehensive aggression against Yemen. The threat specifically mentions potential missile attacks on Saudi oil sites should the kingdom escalate its involvement in the conflict.

Continue reading

Misc Events

Google Delays Gemini 3.5 Pro Launch by Months Due to Coding Issues

Google has postponed the release of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model by several months as the company works to improve the technology's coding capabilities. The delay stems from the model falling short of internal performance goals and requiring multiple layers of review, according to reports. The setback comes as competitors OpenAI and Anthropic continue advancing their own AI offerings.

Continue reading

TSMC Posts Record Q2 Profit on Surging AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported record second-quarter profits, jumping 77% year-over-year and exceeding analyst expectations, driven by sustained demand for advanced AI chips.

Continue reading

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Treasury Yields Rise Despite Soft Inflation Data as Retail Sales and Job Market Show Resilience

Treasury yields climbed as the U.S. job market remained strong and retail sales increased 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion. Business sales surged 2.1% while inventories rose 0.3%, meeting estimates. One-year inflation swaps fell below the Fed's target following softer inflation data, giving consumers more spending power. The Dow gained 100 points amid robust early Q2 earnings. The pound held firm against the dollar as UK economic growth returned.

Continue reading

Dallas Fed's Logan Advocates for Rate Hike to Combat Persistent Inflation

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan called for modestly higher interest rates ahead of the July meeting, arguing that inflation is not sustainably returning to the 2% target without additional policy restriction. Logan dismissed one month of lower CPI data as insufficient evidence of progress, emphasizing the need to finish restoring price stability through tighter monetary policy.

Continue reading

Macro Events

Treasury Yields Rise Despite Soft Inflation Data as Retail Sales and Job Market Show Resilience

Treasury yields climbed as the U.S. job market remained strong and retail sales increased 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion. Business sales surged 2.1% while inventories rose 0.3%, meeting estimates. One-year inflation swaps fell below the Fed's target following softer inflation data, giving consumers more spending power. The Dow gained 100 points amid robust early Q2 earnings. The pound held firm against the dollar as UK economic growth returned.

Continue reading

Dallas Fed's Logan Advocates for Rate Hike to Combat Persistent Inflation

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan called for modestly higher interest rates ahead of the July meeting, arguing that inflation is not sustainably returning to the 2% target without additional policy restriction. Logan dismissed one month of lower CPI data as insufficient evidence of progress, emphasizing the need to finish restoring price stability through tighter monetary policy.

Continue reading

Fed Officials Signal Caution on Rate Cuts Despite Encouraging Inflation Data

Federal Reserve officials Schmid and Logan emphasized persistent inflation concerns while acknowledging recent encouraging data. Kansas City Fed's Schmid called for ending the practice of excluding food prices from core inflation measures, arguing inflation shocks aren't inherently temporary. He noted June CPI data was positive but represents only a single data point, warning against premature policy shifts. Both officials described the labor market as balanced and stable. Logan stressed inflation has remained too high for too long, stating policy restriction is needed if inflation doesn't return to the 2% target independently. Schmid emphasized inflation remains his primary focus in setting monetary policy.

Continue reading

Corporate Actions Events

Eli Lilly Acquires Psychedelic Drugmaker AtaiBeckley for Up to $3.8 Billion

Eli Lilly will pay $2.8 billion upfront to acquire AtaiBeckley, a psychedelic drug developer, in a deal valued at up to $3.8 billion, sending AtaiBeckley shares surging 30 percent.

Continue reading

ABB Acquires UK Industrial Valve Maker Rotork for $5.6 Billion

Swiss engineering giant ABB agreed to purchase British valve and flow control manufacturer Rotork for $5.6 billion, sending Rotork shares surging 67% to record highs while ABB stock declined 2.8% despite posting record second-quarter orders.

Continue reading

REGENXBIO Tumbles 15% on $100M Stock Offering

REGENXBIO fell 15% after announcing a $100 million underwritten public offering of common stock to fund its clinical-stage gene therapy pipeline, with investors reacting to dilution concerns.

Continue reading

SpaceX Stock Falls Below IPO Price as Short Sellers Increase Positions

SpaceX shares dropped below their initial public offering price for the first time this week, prompting increased short-seller activity and raising questions about the company's 18,712 Bitcoin holdings.

Continue reading

Real Estate Events

US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.55%, Highest Since August

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.55% this week, marking its highest level since August, according to Freddie Mac. The increase, driven by Middle East tensions and inflation concerns, is cooling housing demand as higher borrowing costs price out first-time buyers and contribute to declining home sales.

Continue reading

Pending Home Sales Plunge 5.4% in June as Affordability Crisis Deepens

U.S. pending home sales fell 5.4% in June, significantly worse than the 0.5% decline economists expected, as high mortgage rates and elevated prices constrained buyers. Homebuilder sentiment remained below 40 for a 15th consecutive month, the longest stretch since 2012, signaling persistent weakness in housing market conditions.

Continue reading

Healthcare Events

Merck Wins FDA Approval for Novel Cholesterol Pill as Healthcare Innovation Advances

Merck secured FDA approval for a first-of-its-kind cholesterol medication, marking a significant treatment breakthrough. Meanwhile, Priority Health partnered with GRAIL for cancer test coverage, and Telo Genomics reported positive interim data on genomic instability-based relapse risk assessment.

Continue reading

Stick figure drawing doodles 10LightStar01 is live!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq9CwopUH1s

This is a fever dream of a digital age—a sprawling, surrealist tapestry where crochet patterns meet high-speed police chases, and the Grim Reaper is just another guy trying to manage an office.

Here is the story of The Day the Grid Glitched.

The Morning Shift

The day began in a flurry of #ModernCrochet and chaos. At the local craft guild, a "Magical Crochet Gargoyle Quitter" was throwing in the towel, leaving behind a trail of freeform stars and loose ends. Meanwhile, in the corporate underworld, the Grim Reaper CEO adjusted his tie at his administrative desk. "It’s my panel," he hissed to a room of trembling interns, "and you will respect the filing system."

Outside, the physical world was losing its grip on reality. A green avocado was spotted zip-lining across the forest canopy, screaming "Wee!" while a dairy cow and a buffalo experienced love at first sight on the prairie. It was beautiful, until the "Authorized Official Shambulance" sped by with off-key sirens, driven by a DoorDash driver who had clearly taken a wrong turn at the interstate.

The Midday Madness

By noon, the legal system was buckling. A divorce attorney was arguing for a 4% inflation alimony increase, while a stubborn police officer attempted to ticket a driver for doing 55 mph, despite the driver’s GPS claiming otherwise.

In the skies, things weren't much better. An airplane pilot abandoned the cockpit—not because of an emergency, but to fix a sewer leak in the bathroom. This left the County Sheriff’s helicopter pilot to pick up the slack, shouting the command code "Accel UR L8 twerk" into his AI navigator.

Back on the ground, the "Microwave Preventive Maintenance Team" (composed entirely of trolls in tin foil hats) was conducting a rigorous inspection of a breakroom, while nearby, a police officer and his best friend were formally interrogating a hairball.

The Evening Gala

As the sun set, a tarnished copper green armadillo drone took flight from the roof of a skyscraper, filming the most anticipated event of the year: the wedding of the Grim Reaper and the Reapress. They exchanged vows of "invisible threat control" while a dancing xenophobic xylophone provided the music.

However, the party was crashed by a Giant Plushy Octopus looking for hugs and a "Slip and Fall Droidbot" seeking a lawsuit settlement. In the corner, Holly Bitcoin gave tap dance lessons to a singing pickle, while a group of mushroom soldiers set up tents inside a refrigerator’s cooling system to escape the heat.

The Final Stitch

As the clock struck midnight on March 8, 2026, the digital world began to "URL barf." Google Meet was exposing phone numbers, and the #DreamTrackAI was telling everyone to "try again tomorrow."

The chaos finally settled into a quiet, bizarre peace. A Jack Rabbit and a Skunk shared a moment in the woods, and a single claymation blue bird tucked its family into a nest made of crochet scrap yarn. The world was a mess of unredacted reports, stuck cruise controls, and singing rainbows—but as the Star and Hammer cartoon faded to black, one thing was clear: nobody was above the law, but everyone was definitely above the limit for weirdness.

The scene opens on a high-stakes, high-altitude pursuit. Jack, a lanky cartoon cat with whiskers that twitch like radio antennas, is dangling from a vine. Hammer, a stout mouse wearing a tiny tool belt, is standing on Jack’s head, squinting through a pair of brass binoculars.

"Target sighted," Hammer squeaked, pointing a tiny paw toward the horizon. "And he’s moving fast."

Zip-lining across the triple-canopy rainforest at a reckless velocity was Avocado. He wasn't just a fruit; he was a daredevil with a pit of pure adrenaline. Wearing tiny goggles and a GoPro strapped to his pebbly green skin, Avocado let out a high-pitched, "WEEEEEEEE!" as he blurred past a troop of confused howler monkeys.

The Chase is On

Jack didn't have a zip-line, but he did have cartoon physics. He grabbed a passing toucan by the feet, and with a rhythmic "Bang! Bang!" of Hammer’s literal mallet against a hollow log to create a beat, they swung into the sky.

"We need to intercept him before he hits the Cloud Forest!" Hammer shouted over the wind. "If he zips into the 'Modern Crochet' sector, we'll lose him in the yarn fog!"

The Obstacles:

• The Sourdough Rapids: A river of fermented dough they had to skip across.
• The Giant Plushy Octopus: A sentient obstacle that tried to hug them mid-air.
• The Interior Microwave Team: A group of trolls in tin foil hats who were trying to "inspect" the jungle for grease fires.

The Final Stretch

Avocado was gaining speed, his pit humming like a drone motor. He was headed straight for a transitional train scene—a steam engine locomotive puffing purple smoke across a trestle bridge.

"Now, Jack! Use the yarn smudging technique!" Hammer commanded.

Jack pulled a scrap of neon-pink crochet string from his pocket. With the grace of a Vaudeville performer defying gravity, he whipped the string forward. It looped around Avocado’s stem just as the fruit was about to clear the canopy.

ZIP—THWIP—BOING!

The tension on the crochet line acted like a bungee cord. Avocado didn't crash; he performed a perfect, mid-air 360-degree flip, his tiny goggles fogging up with joy.

The Landing

They all tumbled onto a soft mossy log near a Box Turtle who was busy falling in love with an Armadillo. Avocado bounced twice, his GoPro still recording the whole "Brainrot" investigation.

"Why were you running?" Jack panted, his fur standing up in static-electrified tufts.

Avocado adjusted his goggles and looked at them with wide, watery eyes. "Running? I wasn't running. I was just trying to get to the Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons before the early bird special ended."

Hammer looked at Jack. Jack looked at the Armadillo.

"Well," Hammer sighed, putting his mallet back in his belt. "At least we got the footage. This is going to kill on #DreamTrackAI."

VLq-x3ou19E	untitled
0TMbRWk4WjI	The making of Jack and Hammer, cartoon cat and mouse, bang
27LTuniln4k	untitled
r384VZLXu3A	It's go time with Grandma and hot grits in the ring
Ttbtm4D_gWo	pole vault remix
hxicWioIX38	How to take the loose end of crochet stitch, put it over the main strand, fold loop
_Tn8GDwQxAU	Police officer can't stop car due to cruise control being stuck #crazycars #carwars
HIXe_nKGXwA	Untitled Help I can't put my foot in a shoe without a hole in the shoe
SbURuV-AfKw	Untitled Magical crochet gargoyle quitter I Quit doodle art animation
wXRoZkjgg1Y	pingrok Being hold off in an ambulance
Ws8yubqGV9k	Join the National Guard.
Y42d9L-TPl4	Untitled You U Ewe and I, eye aye have gone on a date a couple of times haven't we?
UK9nCeVtutU	Untitled door dash ambulance Authorized official shambulance services
s0zhJiIvVI4	How to skip one crochet, stitch and count to 3 #moderncrochet #beginners
6rfXhtSP5xk	Cuddlefish jellyfish love at first sight in the ocean, prairie of plankton.
LGU4J83SAxs	Green avocado goes zip lining A top the forest canopy Wee
arAPCXGIWCs	Untitled Hapoy Jake Patrick Wesley Day
jS4zJkPKeY8	Untitled I love ❤️ you Singing pickle
qzs14JC3VUY	Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons
PzLApGgcrDw	Unlisted cat Video Bob chicken Crane
ZSNHIl-H_YA	Trolls in tin foil hats Following.\n The microwave team That looks like fun
cK5lfQtYRL0	Ma.\n King a crochet larger one, 2, 3, Stitching.\n A square. Basic beginner, crafting.
iao2E0zcS0Y	The life of bug, Mushroom soldiers set up tents inside of refrigerator cooling system #theoutcasts
jsnY8MNuZ34	Best cooling system on the planet fixed by maintenance refrigerator repair #applianceexperts
_UGblsuJUnw	My artificial intelligence tool on YouTube is really popular, it's telling me to try again tomorrow.
5VYC607cWVw	#DreamTrackAI pretty little baby, wiggle loves give me
WWB1d8vomoI	Gorilla vs Laughing cactus toy
8kKjbmBxytA	Hippopotamus manatee love at first sight
UuRPSEgUONw	Untitled Sunshine smiles, fluffy ponies Singing rainbow
MuaLc-TsHb8	unlisted can't touch this
Oh1h3EYHT6w	The interior microwave, preventive maintenance checks and services team Inspections
qytG5WJmjH0	Me police officer and best friend interrogate a hairball #brainrot very bizarre investigation
aqgdVA9zh90	Jack McAuley Doggy Day Care
1hJy1EeMquw	Unlisted Unclassified
zMfSaHTThaE	How To freeform crochet flower 🌼 #doodle
dKb1qRc3o9o	yeti best friend and cactus doing winter dance ballet in snow
hKynH3bUS1s	Dairy cow and Buffalo love at first sight on the prairie
CxNKsmayhGY	Crochet string scrap 🪹 nest for baby birds
nDzxUT-XaqY	Untitled Steam Engine LocomotiveTrain transitional scene
GQGUaP3GCH8	Geminisyria Cooking Pizza in outdoor Stone fire pit with Trollba
Avz8V3n_GMg	The airplane pilot has left the cockpit and is fixing a sewer leak in the bathroom. #squawkbox
tpOQC0ZO2Qs	The making of cartoon Jack and Doodle Fire Rescue Airplane
J2QnlZxfPDE	Unlisted
zO11ZBlTuk0	untitled cat reflections
vxy39kHdeYo	Grim Reaper CEO It's my panel and you will respect me, Administrative desk job clerk opening
82j_JU_L2Hg	When space force attends a retirement party for National Guard, Major Foughcup
Q3gfpuOd1tU	I've tried to like people. I really have, and then they start talking and breathing And stuff
dA7Hm9ZCG3Q	Divorce attorney Request 4% inflation alimony from divorce judge For ex, wife, survival
W20EkPyA8h4	Untitled pointing to the sky pose
U6hhfz3YXyg	untitled
EMsniptQwao	Out of control ambulance in the middle of the interstate Off key sirens #emsweek
O2CdiQDAgOw	Me running through under water transpatent cables in the ocean with emoji balls
m_UBIWxyKjc	Gerbils and mice scratching a record
kzE4Z4gWIgQ	Untitled working with grown men in the corn 🌽
tpWdK6sqUd0	Grim reaper and best friend crash a stadium concert giving tourists a tour Through the arena.
DrMa2hwb6Ts	Untitled Below river window displays local attraction
Q02wFzUWqq4	The Curiosity Hook: The making of Jack Star and Hammer Cartoon
ICFUxXR_hBA	Jack Rabbit Skunk Love in the woods
9KZe4RnXfOA	Armadillo box turtle love near fern moss log deep in the forest.
FqthJO69_oA	County Sheriff helicopter pilot gives command code to GPS AI- "Accel UR L8 twerk" #quadcopters
BL6RojCX47Q	She didnt just dance, she defied gravity, vaudeville big band era
lrhNN8WfdVY	Tarnished copper green armadillo drone takes flight
Nop7msLpFbo	Ice Police arrest Oticfyptokmiss Rodriguez during building ladder escape
VfgRh7Ihu_8	Police arrest trollGPTchat
tfiQpdf9xuE	untitled
ceU9T6Y--C8	Slip and Fall Droidbot Doggabuls Synergy Drink TransOracle Lipplate lawsuite Zoroke partner
NstJxUjDXOg	Untitled unitard, yoga tree pose
Zx6BBFXOXmE	My GPS says I was doing 55 miles an hour, Stubborn Hard-headed police officer Traffic stop
oopFOTBwRKA	How to use yarn as a blending tool for smudging, Transitioning Pencil pen drawings. Art Sketch Tip
FkjnyVeY-Mk	Unlisted Partial Unredacted Committee on Judiciary Jack Smith Report
i_naFvEeaP8	The vacuum hose vent safety cleaning drone To reach high places inside the home Prevent slip fall
8EepbpHH5gs	Google's clients are having a URL barf 403 error #remotejobs #sidehustle
9OxrKTj2p-Y	March 8, 2026
hqyDrKMckmA	CPU central processing unit green energy HVAC BOILER room cleaning maintenance
iS6iZjXv8Ok	The claymation cartoon story of spaghetti and noodle, the Blue Bird family Nest
7zT96UKY9yY	Surrender Burart
S-fYKAxS22Y	Security alert US embassy Doha, Shelter in place, Travel advisory To avoid region Recommend
wXMNDNyadOY	Untitled Books: My husband John is a Senator Kennedy
bGrUFNfeOBo	Man wins Presidential Medal of Freedom for missing the woman He dated and ex. Husband
M7h1tuBSAaU	No love anticipated from Chicago windy city or Detroit 8 miles, Eminem burn #seo
bjdsRjfinfM	How to crochet a free form star Random stitches and more 10LightStar01 is live!
8U1Yd92_9Tk	Mirror Love Bird
RXg88dMgxf0	The dancing xenophobic xylophones, World stage collaboration
C2JpWEjuXB4	Happy Valentines Day from crochet Pup stitch
p5qNmwVz2d8	Google Meet calling replacing (legacy) Duo Exposes your phone number and email
Ln_4tmLAMSY	Would a woman hire male lawyer knowing that he had cheated on his wife? #divorcelaw #divorcelawyer
a9IGBuS2a-E	Logmei silly hairball dance
boavDBvWgjs	Flashing police car drone lifts off from a top of very tall roof of a skyscraper.
jr_Yfh3y78c	He set the country backwards with his domestic violent attitude with physical abuse towards me
WpBEkq0gPWw	Untitled Remix
gPtMY579pjQ	This guy is admitting he's purposely manipulating people by playing dumb frauds & scam
KzvNCrlxa8s	Giant plushy octopus hugs couple
-pmCMnQut-E	Police arrest ogoniff sleeping on mailbox Dropbox #firstamendment #DreamScreenAI #aperturefoundation
CKYUeWHFczo	Lock him up , - No one is above the law
9pFR8UEBsxw	The first steps, and last steps are not needed for the crochet heart pattern
PzdL5mn0Baw	The blossoming love of the 2 colored people, He loves his wife so very much
pMFd1mZiJRk	Grim Reaper & Reapress Get married, Do you abide by invisible threats control According to his rules
n4nf4bB-Jo8	When active duty military shows up to the space force
EYLww4NNraI	Was this a mistake? Remembering the old spark, Caring For an abuser

Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Breakout Looms After Four Weeks at Resistance

The rally has repeatedly stalled beneath the same technical ceiling, with USD/CHF once again approaching a pivotal inflection point.

By :  Michael Boutros,  Sr. Technical Strategist

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF has spent four consecutive weeks pressing a major pivot zone at uptrend resistance.
• The repeated failure to break higher is increasing the importance of this technical barrier for the broader uptrend.
• A decisive close above resistance would confirm uptrend resumption and expose the next major upside objectives.
• A break below the monthly range low would be the first indication that bullish momentum is fading and a larger correction may be underway.
• The economic calendar is relatively light, leaving geopolitical developments as the most likely catalyst for the next directional move.
• Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8037, 8009 (key), 7827/39

USD/CHF is entering a decisive phase after spending nearly a month unable to clear a major technical barrier. Although the January uptrend remains constructive, repeated rejection from the same zone has increased the risk that momentum begins to fade unless buyers force a convincing breakout. With price still holding above rising trend support and geopolitical developments likely to drive sentiment, the next move could determine whether the broader advance resumes or gives way to a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

https://preview.redd.it/zwcir6vxxndh1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cd2182ab9707fed006e7f072b0578a2494518d3

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was, “testing uptrend resistance at a key pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with ac close above 8103 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF closed at 8100 that week before pulling back with decline registering in intraweek low at 8010 the following week. The subsequent recovery takes USD/CHF back into pivotal resistance of a fourth consecutive week and the focus remains on possible inflection off this zone with the long-bias still vulnerable while below 8103.

Initial weekly support now rests with the monthly close low at 8037- note the median line converges on this level next week. Ultimately, a break below the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009 would be needed to threaten a deeper correction within the January uptrend towards the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average near 7927/39 (bullish invalidation). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach / weekly close above the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 is needed to mark uptrend resumption. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Strength beyond this threshold is needed to fuel the next major phase of the rally towards the 2024 lows at 8333.

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade EUR/USD" Guide

https://www.forex.com/en-us/whitepapers/

https://preview.redd.it/d3l92uv4yndh1.png?width=1420&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d5393324df64565761662cfe1614fadce1e90c6

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading into a pivotal resistance zone for the fourth consecutive week and although the technical outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a breakout of this range just above the median line- losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the 75% parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

The economic calendar is relatively light next week, leaving developments surrounding the conflict with Iran as the primary catalyst for shifts in market sentiment. Watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

https://preview.redd.it/l8tcjp96yndh1.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=6276f357fcb5d9a93257ddaeaf21a30cd45ae0e1

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• Gold (XAU/USD)
• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/swiss-franc-forecast-usd-chf-breakout-looms-after-four-weeks-at-resistance-7-16-2026/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Why I'm shorting QumulusAI

I'm drunk after the England-Argentina game so forgive the verbal diarrhoea but I want to get this out before I go to bed.

QumulusAI have announced tomorrow they will begin trading via their direct listing.

https://www.qumulusai.com/articles/qumulusai-to-begin-trading-tomorrow-on-the-nasdaq-global-market-under-ticker-symbol-qmls

Safe to say, barring something truly remarkable, the SONM reverse merger is dead, and I was obviously wrong. That said, I still think the SONM shell will print regardless for reasons I've already explained in other posts/comments.

With every life experience, there are lessons to be learned. And I've learned a lot about QMLS having followed them since September last year.

To put it bluntly: this company is broke after years of mismanagement, and the fact it is going through with the direct listing tells me it has no idea what it's doing.

They have just financially castrated themselves by committing to this direct listing. My suspicion is that certain individuals with a financial interest in the company going public (i'm not naming them, but you can find out who I'm talking about if you look deep enough in the prospectus) have strong handed the founders who own more than 10% to agreeing to this. And the founders are two crypto bros who used to mine bitcoin and know shit about fuck when it comes to AI if you look at their backgrounds.

But more to the point: QumulusAI have put out a massively misleading $300 million ARR forecast. They would need something on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 GPUs to hit these figures depending on utility %, and they would need between $500 million and $1 billion to finance the GPUs that would be needed to produce those kind of numbers.

To put it simply: these guys have no money. If they had financing in place, it would've been declared in the prospectus. They only made $3 million last quarter. You do not 100x your revenue within 6 months without clarity on financing.

All this to say: tomorrow's direct listing is a liquidity event. Every single sub 10% holder, which amounts to over 50% of the company's shareholders in total, will be able to sell from Day 1 and probably will sell at some point in the near future. Meanwhile, the two founders who own 16% each will be locked up for the next 6 months and be left bag holding by the time they can sell as well.

If you want to get an idea of what the graph could look like, take a look at Arrive AI who direct listed last year or reAlpha tech.

The entire merger thesis was predicated on the idea that QMLS was pursuing a public vehicle that they could leverage the public vehicle to raise capital via an equity raise + thin 1 million float. The direct listing has neither of these characteristics. Some 20+ million shares will be available to trade on Day 1.

QumulusAI is about to get wrecked.

Markets

Good evening, everyone. We’ve been stuck in the $60,000 range for Bitcoin since February, yet some hotheads are urging people to buy at current levels. Let me state right off the bat that I am a Bitcoin maximalist and a bear.

Let’s take things in order. We saw Bitcoin hit $60,000 out of the blue, even before the events in Iran. At the time, the stock market was rising daily, and gold was performing well. In other words, against the backdrop of a bull stock market, the price of Bitcoin fell by 50 percent (literally within a couple of months of its October peak at $126,000). Gold dropped 30%. Yet the stock market continues to break all records. We recently hit a new local low for Bitcoin at $57,000, and this happened against the backdrop of a rising stock market.

Some argue that we have been in an accumulation phase since February, but in my opinion, this is distribution. I expect the Bitcoin bottom to be in the $31,000–$35,000 range. This gives you an idea of just how crazy it is to buy Bitcoin at $65,000 today.

A new market model and cycle structure has emerged based on the 2022–2023 period specifically, when the bottom was established in October 2022 and the entire following year was characterized by growth accompanied by accumulation. As for the altseason, it occurred precisely when Bitcoin hit its bottom and dominance was low. Recall the rise of APT from $3 to $20, Solana’s surge from $8 to $20, and so on.

I expect the same pattern to repeat this time: we will see bottoms for Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks in the autumn. By the spring of 2027, Bitcoin will rise to $60,000 before crashing to $45,000, followed by a period of accumulation lasting until the autumn of 2027, at which point a new bull market will begin.

A stock market crash will occur, wiping out trillions of dollars in market capitalization. We will fall to March 2025 levels (driven by Trump’s tariffs, which sent the S&P 500 plunging to 4,900 points). I expect gold to reach $3,300 per ounce it might go lower, but there is no point in guessing.

Hang in there and be patient. During an apocalypse, everyone rushes to the US dollar, not to gold or crypto. The dollar is the only safe haven.

Do you think Bitcoin will ever need a standard way to verify real-world events?

I've been thinking about something recently and I'm curious what people here think.

Bitcoin does an incredible job of verifying ownership and transactions without trusting a third party.

But when an application needs to know whether something happened in the real world, things get messy.

For example:

• Was a package actually delivered?
• Did someone really visit a location?
• Was an inspection completed?

Most systems seem to fall back to GPS, a centralized API or simply trusting whoever reports the data.

Do you think this is something Bitcoin should stay completely out of, or is there room for protocols that verify real-world events while using Bitcoin purely as a settlement layer?

Genuinely interested in hearing different opinions.