Introduction
Hello Panthers, I am back with the second State of the Cat weekly update. This has been a tumultuous week in crypto say the least, I am going to cover a variety of topics, and going forth that will be the primary purpose of the introduction. I hope my fellow diamond handers are still out there hodling and accumulating if you can.
- Overall market trend
- BTC chart analysis - Wyckoff accumulation likely
- Latest panther developments (new pools, etc.)
- Panther TA
- Autoshark - While I intend to keep State of the Cat only about Panther, I feel a brief covering of Autoshark is necessary
- Conclusion
Overall Market Trend
Well suffice it to say it doesn't take an expert in technical analysis to know what the trend is, we're down, we're down really low.
So low that Lil Bubble made this track: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1utTEIWXOhQ
However I think there is more going on than we think, this isn't simply a crash into a bear market again, and there are several reasons for this. Firstly Binance is launching the NFT marketplace in June, and despite this dip, people are still going crazy for NFTs. Surely as with BSC the marketplace will be powered by BNB, and that will bring new volume to BNB, and in turn to Panther and the rest of DEFI which is now feeling the hit as hard as the CEFI market.
Secondly in June or July the ETH London Hard Fork is going to launch which will not only bring deflationary tokenomics to ETH, but further improvement to the way gas prices are handled and calculated, bringing new volume to the ETH market.
Third, and most importantly the bullrun is not over yet for Bitcoin which leads me right into the next section.
BTC Chart Analysis
Bitcoin took a hard crash which sent the market reeling all the way back down to the lower support range seen in March, with Bitcoin at time writing sitting at $33,200 and the overall crypto market sitting at $1.322 Trillion
The price action on BTC is alarming and so is this market sell off, however I remain optimistic because of a structure known as a Wyckoff accumulation, which, thus far, BTC seems to be a doing a textbook one of.
Wyckoff's come in 5 phases as follows:
- Capitulation, finding a floor/support
- Testing in a very particular fashion: climb from floor to test the upper range, fail and retest the floor, it will fail to reach the floor, and try to test higher and also fail, and then will test the very bottom support again
- Spring test - the asset will attempt to break the lower floor and find support, initiating bullish divergence
- Accumulation - the asset will now start to rise in price to upper resistance forming an ascending triangle structure
- Breakout - As sell pressure eases the asset breaks out to retest its high
Not shown in the chart: capitulated from $58,000 down to $46,000 and attempted to rebound out, getting stuck at $51,459 (on Binance at least), followed by a further collapse in price as shown in the chart above.
Further capitulation occurred with supports at both 42k and 38k getting smashed, falling all the way back to below the 200 MA support ($33,743) at $30,059
Now we are in a wide accumulation range, and again following Wyckoff accumulation to the letter.
Now we have established the price will be going up, but for how long. Is this the start of a bear market, or is this just like the dip before BTC hit $22k - when it went down to below $12,000 and everyone panicked for a week?
Personally I can't say right now, without more data, what I can say for certain is even in bear markets, there is still a retest before the final capitulation - it has happened at the end of both bull markets before. Which leaves us with two scenarios
- This is a textbook Wyckoff accumulation and we will see $73,000+ BTC by the end of June
- Bear market is starting and we will see a retest to somewhere around $56,000 to $62,000 followed by a further capitulatory dump to $22,673 the last lowest support of BTC's uptrend
In either scenario there should be one more blast of volume before the decision time comes as to whether the bullrun is for the whole year, of if we're done.
Latest Panther Developments
Farms, farms and more farms, seems like every time I open the twitter the team is adding new farm pairs, and that is very good to see. Everything that needs to happen to make Panther a long term thing is continuing to fall into place.
Panther DAO gets its first Core proposal, asking if we want to burn more panther in the transfer tax. Is that a trick question? Of course we do! A very good development for our tokenomics going forward.
Over 80% voted for a significant increase to the burn rate!!
Massive volume spike on the 20th as a result of the Pancake BUNNY exploit and ensuing Pancakeswap fud. While it was a one time event (so far), it means something really good for Panther - people know we're here, they know we have an AMM, and they aren't afraid to use it as a substitute to PCS. All good things in time my friends.
While the price may not be doing what we want, everything else about Pantherswap is moving along nicely with continued regular updates from the devs, transparent decision making processes, and overall a continually improving product.
Panther TA
I'll be honest with you all, when we are at the bottom of a sell off period and trying to find a floor, its really impossible to give any of you an accurate prediction on the price right now. So I apologize to those of you who were hoping for a chart, but any chart I give you right now will probably prove to be inaccurate.
Instead I will discuss the overall condition of the trend, essentially we are trickling down slowly despite continued investment due to two factors, firstly, while the TVL and overall volume on the DEX remains relatively stable compared to the price, people just aren't buying that much Panther.
Without a higher number of transactions involving specifically Panther we will continue to bleed on price because more panthers are being minted than burned. The emission rate reduction and burn rate increase coming soon should alleviate this issue.
Overall we need more buyers of specifically PANTHER - this means Jungles - until Jungles launches with interesting projects we will be unlikely to see any significant price increases.
Pancake, bakery, and ape all had this issue at their start too, they had TVL, they had volume, but too few wanted the native token because there was no reason to.
Again I think this will all solve itself in time. Use this low price to get more, average down, and pool free panther!
AutoShark
AutoShark is Panther's Shark to Pancake's BUNNY, and as such functions basically the same way, you stake, they optimize your yield.
Having this kind of companion DAPP allows Panther to have an even bigger variety of options for investors, and is imply just a good idea. I don't want to divert the purpose of these updates to much by going too in depth on Shark, but I did want to mention it.
Personally I moved my Panther over AutoShark on Day 1 and am quite happy with my yields so far.
With farm like these its hard to say no!
Conclusion
Overall I think Panther is in a perfectly acceptable place, all of DEFI is suffering just as much as the rest of the markets, and the only way to come out on top as an investor right now is to be patient, and inject fresh capital if you can afford to.
Good luck out there friends, and I look forward to checking in with you all next week!
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