Hello fellow HODLers of Bitcoin,
TLDR: We're going to the moon
Here's my 2 cents (Shoutout Honest Abe) on where we're going (rhymes with noon). Since Bitcoin is in fixed supply (there are only 21 milly) and we have a halving roughly every 4 years (basically we mine less and less), the supply-demand equilibrium has to change in response to the halving event. Everyone knows after the halving we're supposed to enter a crazy bull run as we search for a new equilibrium price. Question is how high is the equilibrium price? (Definitely not as high as me but anything is possible)
I'm going to try some charts to help you see the signs. (the signs....what do they mean? iykyk)
First, lets take a peek at the (John) Daily chart of BTC from the last halving cycle in 2020. Last time, we had a nice supporting trend line (the blue diagonal one) from near the original breakout (early November) to the local bottom (right hand side of the blue line) before the real move up (starts mid December). You see the big red candle that is a fake bottom halfway on the trend line? That's the suits taking all the 1,000x regards out and stopping them out. Notice how it happens right after we try and fail to break 20K in late November. Keep it that ur brain. So we take a deep dive down, hit the support line, go back up and successfully break 20K, only to chop around and eventually fall to the support again. The support again is mid December and marks the day the rocket ship leaves the launchpad.
https://preview.redd.it/06ce2kttq26e1.png?width=2012&format=png&auto=webp&s=a56031202de2451868e0cf42a527e7d6d2293283
Now, what are those rainbow line looking color things? That's a tool that Senor Fibonacci made to measure mathematical resistance or support lines during a move. Think of them like checkpoints. We need to break one and stay above it before going to the next one. In this one we see our move from local bottom(big red candle and day after) to local top (stage 1 of breakout) was 50% in the course of 4 weeks. Quick Side Note: The two lines and green/red bars below is a momentum indicator. When blue crosses orange upwards (bullish) and downwards (bearish). Green is rippy mode, red is nah. Just look at it.
Now to today.....................
Notice the same support trend line (blue line). I can't find waldo but I found a big red candle again after failing to break 100K. No way, don't be playing with me again. And after we successfully break 100K and then chop around only to return to support line. Oh, ****. Wait, wait, wait, when did this happen? *Checks chart*: Early November to....mid-December (within a day). So does that mean price is going to be the same? Can't be sure (the suits have their hands all over the exchanges), but if so take a quick 50% upside move from local bottom following big red candle and we get roughly 130K before Christmas. Talk about a stocking stuffer.
https://preview.redd.it/2p1trhg9q26e1.png?width=2008&format=png&auto=webp&s=7848aa29e52800ceaaafd121ae767f716ea81d30
Oh, man you thought I was done...NAH THIS IS GENERATIONAL WEALTH. Peep the momentum indicator for today's chart. Look similar?
Now the daily chart is helpful, but news can change the price action of a day so lets zoom out to a weekly chart and see if the true economic powers that be are at play.
https://preview.redd.it/nnrh9bztw26e1.png?width=2006&format=png&auto=webp&s=f78f23cd52888846abead953ce52d35adcfb398b
Check it. Big Green, Red, Green, Red, Liftoff. Today...
https://preview.redd.it/vte81759x26e1.png?width=2012&format=png&auto=webp&s=bccdc2d1c220b9a59109e83a18846250c44b8fcf
No...****ing...way. Big Green, Red, Green, Red....
(I expect Bitcoin to have a better close to this week, but still but down. Next week though, as Terrell Owens would say, "Get Your Popcorn Ready")
If you've made it this far then you really think I have half a brain cell. In case you're wondering what I'm working on next:
Speaking of popcorn, I've got the munchies and I'm about to eat an entire bag of it and watch the Big Short because I've got a feeling history has a way of repeating itself. (NVDA FUQ'D?)
Until then peace, love and positivity to all those who read this and to those that don't <3