PSA: the Coldcard exploit is likely tax deductible

The Coldcard exploit drained over $70M in Bitcoin from almost 1,200 wallets. If you were one of the victims, I'm sorry. I've already seen a handful of posts asking whether the loss is deductible, and I've seen some confidently wrong answers, so here's the actual analysis.

I'm a CPA specializing in crypto tax, mod of r/CryptoTax, and Principal of Product & Tax Strategy at Summ. I wrote a guide last year on whether crypto scams are tax deductible based on CCA 202511015, the IRS Chief Counsel Advice released in March 2025. The Coldcard exploit runs through the same framework, but it's a different fact pattern than the scams the CCA covers, and in one way it's actually a cleaner case. In another way it's messier. Both matter for your return.

Disclaimer: Not tax advice, educational purposes only, US taxpayers only, consult your own tax professional.

Quick summary before you read:

• Yes, this should qualify as a deductible theft loss under IRC §165(c)(2) for most victims, but timing is key
• Your deduction is limited to your COST BASIS, not the fair value of the lost assets. You never paid tax on the unrealized gains, so you don't get to claim that amount as a taxable loss.
• The year you can claim it is the real problem. You may not be able to deduct it in 2026
• The Ponzi safe harbor (Rev. Proc. 2009-20) does not apply here
• Document everything now

What actually happened

Quick recap for anyone catching up. A firmware bug in Coinkite's Coldcard wallets (sitting in the code since March 2021) routed seed generation to a weak software random number generator instead of the hardware chip. The result: seeds that were supposed to be unguessable were reduced to a range a computer can search. The attacker generated candidate seeds offline, derived the addresses, checked them against the blockchain, and swept the funds. Your device was never touched. It could have been powered off in a safe and the outcome would be the same.

This matters for tax purposes because it means you didn't do anything. Nobody tricked you into sending funds. That distinction drives the whole analysis.

Why this qualifies under §165(c)(2)

IRC §165(c)(2) allows individuals to deduct theft losses incurred in a transaction entered into for profit. Since 2018, this is essentially the only path for individuals, because personal theft losses under §165(c)(3) are disallowed (more on that below).

The IRS laid out the framework in CCA 202511015, which analyzed five scam victims. The key question in every scenario: did the victim have a profit motive? For victims who authorized transfers (pig butchering, fake fraud department calls), the IRS looked at why they transferred the funds. Investment motive = deductible. Romance or fake ransom motive = not deductible.

But the scenario that matters for Coldcard victims is Taxpayer 3, the phishing victim. Taxpayer 3 never authorized anything. A scammer stole their login credentials and drained their accounts directly. The IRS said that when the taking is unauthorized, you don't analyze any transfer (there wasn't one). Instead, you look at why the taxpayer held the stolen property in the first place. Taxpayer 3 held investments in those accounts to grow them for retirement, so the loss was incurred in a transaction entered into for profit and was deductible under §165(c)(2).

Footnote 15 of the CCA makes it explicit: for losses from "hacked" accounts where hackers cause an unauthorized distribution, "the analysis and Federal income tax consequences are the same as for victims of phishing scams."

That's the Coldcard exploit. An unauthorized taking, no victim action, no deception. If you held that BTC as an investment (and if it was sitting in cold storage for years, you almost certainly did), your loss lands squarely in §165(c)(2). In some ways this is an easier case than the scams in the CCA, because there's no motive-for-the-transfer analysis for the IRS to pick apart. The theft itself is also not seriously in doubt: sweeping funds with reconstructed private keys is larceny and/or computer fraud in essentially every state, and §165 defines theft broadly (Rev. Rul. 2009-9).

One caveat: if you can't establish an investment purpose (say you held BTC purely to spend), the loss falls into §165(c)(3) personal casualty territory, and those losses are disallowed unless attributable to a declared disaster. The OBBBA made that disallowance permanent, so it applies in 2026 and beyond. For hardware wallet holders this will be rare, but it's why documentation of your holding intent matters.

Catch #1: your deduction is your basis, not the value

§165(b) limits the deduction to your adjusted cost basis in the stolen property. Not the fair market value on July 30.

If you bought 10 BTC for $30,000 in 2017 and it was worth $650,000 when it was swept, your theft loss deduction is $30,000. The unrealized gain was never taxed as income, so you can't deduct it as a loss. I know that stings. It's the same rule that applied to every victim in the CCA, and there's no way around it.

Also worth understanding: the theft is not a sale. There's no capital gain event, no capital loss. The lots just exit your records through the theft loss.

Catch #2: the timing problem (this is the big one)

Under §165(e), a theft loss is deductible in the year you discover it. But there's a second requirement that I think will trip up a lot of Coldcard victims: no deduction is allowed while you have a reasonable prospect of recovery (Treas. Reg. §1.165-1(d)(3)). If a bona fide claim exists with a substantial possibility of success, the loss isn't "sustained" yet, and you wait.

In the CCA scenarios this was easy. The scammers were anonymous, the funds went overseas, and law enforcement told every victim there was little to no prospect of recovery. Deduction allowed in the discovery year.

The Coldcard facts look different, at least right now:

• The stolen BTC is sitting unmoved in four identifiable addresses that everyone is watching
• Investigators traced the attacker's workflow to a paid account at a blockchain data provider and handed the logs to authorities
• Coinkite's CEO publicly accepted "full accountability" for the firmware bug, and Coinkite is a solvent company. That's a potential negligence claim
• Law firms are already soliciting Coldcard victims for litigation

None of that means you'll ever see your coins again. But "reasonable prospect of recovery" is a much lower bar than "recovery is likely," and if you claim the full loss on your 2026 return while a class action against Coinkite is live and the coins are traceable, you're taking a position the IRS can challenge on timing. The good news is the standard cuts both ways: the courts say you don't have to be an "incorrigible optimist." If by December 31 the coins have been laundered through mixers, no suspect has been identified, and you have a documented basis for concluding claims against Coinkite are unlikely to go anywhere (or you've opted out of litigation), a 2026 deduction becomes defensible. If recovery prospects resolve later, you deduct in the year they resolve.

Practical translation: don't assume this goes on your 2026 return. Watch how the investigation and any Coinkite litigation develop, and make the call with your tax professional based on the facts as of year end.

No Ponzi safe harbor

Some people will suggest the Rev. Proc. 2009-20 safe harbor (the "Ponzi loss" election, 75%/95% of the loss with reduced audit friction). It doesn't apply here. The safe harbor requires a "specified fraudulent arrangement" where a lead figure takes investor money and reports fake income, AND that lead figure must be criminally charged. The Coldcard attacker never purported to invest anything for anyone, never reported fictitious returns, and hasn't been identified, let alone charged. Same conclusion the CCA reached for its victims. You're under the general §165 rules, including the timing rules above.

How to report it (when the time comes)

The loss goes on Form 4684, Section B (income-producing property), then flows to Schedule A as an itemized deduction. It is NOT a miscellaneous itemized deduction, so the old 2% floor and the §67(g) suspension don't touch it. The 10% AGI floor for personal casualty losses doesn't apply either, because this isn't a §165(c)(3) loss.

What to do right now

1. If you still have funds on a potentially affected Coldcard, move them. Coinkite has fixed firmware out, and researchers warned more sweeps are likely
2. File a police report and an IC3 complaint. Every CCA victim had a law enforcement report, and it's your best evidence for both the theft and the recovery analysis
3. Lock down your cost basis records now. Exchange records, wallet histories, the works. Your basis is your deduction, and you'll need to prove it
4. Document your holding intent (long-term investment) and keep evidence the specific addresses drained were yours
5. Track the recovery situation: the four addresses, the investigation, any Coinkite litigation. Keep a file. Whichever year you claim the loss, you'll want a record of why that was the right year

Conclusion

The loss is real and the deduction should be too, for anyone who held their BTC as an investment. The CCA's Taxpayer 3 analysis fits this fact pattern almost perfectly. Just don't let anyone tell you it's a simple "write it off in 2026" situation. Your deduction is capped at basis, and the traceable coins plus a manufacturer that publicly took responsibility mean the timing question deserves as much attention as the deduction itself.

Happy to answer questions in the comments.

Desperate Times

In light of recent events I thought it prudent to create a passphrase protected wallet on my Trezor 5. I went to settings saw that passphrase option was active. added a wallet, and only succeed in creating another bitcoin wallet with no passphrase. Two questions:

1 What step did I miss that allowed me to create a new passphrase protected wallet?

2 How if possible, can I delete the pointless wallet I created?

U.S. Sanctions Bitcoin Insurance Platform Linked to IRGC for Strait of Hormuz Ships

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Stick figure drawing doodles 10LightStar01 is live!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq9CwopUH1s

This is a fever dream of a digital age—a sprawling, surrealist tapestry where crochet patterns meet high-speed police chases, and the Grim Reaper is just another guy trying to manage an office.

Here is the story of The Day the Grid Glitched.

The Morning Shift

The day began in a flurry of #ModernCrochet and chaos. At the local craft guild, a "Magical Crochet Gargoyle Quitter" was throwing in the towel, leaving behind a trail of freeform stars and loose ends. Meanwhile, in the corporate underworld, the Grim Reaper CEO adjusted his tie at his administrative desk. "It’s my panel," he hissed to a room of trembling interns, "and you will respect the filing system."

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The Midday Madness

By noon, the legal system was buckling. A divorce attorney was arguing for a 4% inflation alimony increase, while a stubborn police officer attempted to ticket a driver for doing 55 mph, despite the driver’s GPS claiming otherwise.

In the skies, things weren't much better. An airplane pilot abandoned the cockpit—not because of an emergency, but to fix a sewer leak in the bathroom. This left the County Sheriff’s helicopter pilot to pick up the slack, shouting the command code "Accel UR L8 twerk" into his AI navigator.

Back on the ground, the "Microwave Preventive Maintenance Team" (composed entirely of trolls in tin foil hats) was conducting a rigorous inspection of a breakroom, while nearby, a police officer and his best friend were formally interrogating a hairball.

The Evening Gala

As the sun set, a tarnished copper green armadillo drone took flight from the roof of a skyscraper, filming the most anticipated event of the year: the wedding of the Grim Reaper and the Reapress. They exchanged vows of "invisible threat control" while a dancing xenophobic xylophone provided the music.

However, the party was crashed by a Giant Plushy Octopus looking for hugs and a "Slip and Fall Droidbot" seeking a lawsuit settlement. In the corner, Holly Bitcoin gave tap dance lessons to a singing pickle, while a group of mushroom soldiers set up tents inside a refrigerator’s cooling system to escape the heat.

The Final Stitch

As the clock struck midnight on March 8, 2026, the digital world began to "URL barf." Google Meet was exposing phone numbers, and the #DreamTrackAI was telling everyone to "try again tomorrow."

The chaos finally settled into a quiet, bizarre peace. A Jack Rabbit and a Skunk shared a moment in the woods, and a single claymation blue bird tucked its family into a nest made of crochet scrap yarn. The world was a mess of unredacted reports, stuck cruise controls, and singing rainbows—but as the Star and Hammer cartoon faded to black, one thing was clear: nobody was above the law, but everyone was definitely above the limit for weirdness.

The scene opens on a high-stakes, high-altitude pursuit. Jack, a lanky cartoon cat with whiskers that twitch like radio antennas, is dangling from a vine. Hammer, a stout mouse wearing a tiny tool belt, is standing on Jack’s head, squinting through a pair of brass binoculars.

"Target sighted," Hammer squeaked, pointing a tiny paw toward the horizon. "And he’s moving fast."

Zip-lining across the triple-canopy rainforest at a reckless velocity was Avocado. He wasn't just a fruit; he was a daredevil with a pit of pure adrenaline. Wearing tiny goggles and a GoPro strapped to his pebbly green skin, Avocado let out a high-pitched, "WEEEEEEEE!" as he blurred past a troop of confused howler monkeys.

The Chase is On

Jack didn't have a zip-line, but he did have cartoon physics. He grabbed a passing toucan by the feet, and with a rhythmic "Bang! Bang!" of Hammer’s literal mallet against a hollow log to create a beat, they swung into the sky.

"We need to intercept him before he hits the Cloud Forest!" Hammer shouted over the wind. "If he zips into the 'Modern Crochet' sector, we'll lose him in the yarn fog!"

The Obstacles:

• The Sourdough Rapids: A river of fermented dough they had to skip across.
• The Giant Plushy Octopus: A sentient obstacle that tried to hug them mid-air.
• The Interior Microwave Team: A group of trolls in tin foil hats who were trying to "inspect" the jungle for grease fires.

The Final Stretch

Avocado was gaining speed, his pit humming like a drone motor. He was headed straight for a transitional train scene—a steam engine locomotive puffing purple smoke across a trestle bridge.

"Now, Jack! Use the yarn smudging technique!" Hammer commanded.

Jack pulled a scrap of neon-pink crochet string from his pocket. With the grace of a Vaudeville performer defying gravity, he whipped the string forward. It looped around Avocado’s stem just as the fruit was about to clear the canopy.

ZIP—THWIP—BOING!

The tension on the crochet line acted like a bungee cord. Avocado didn't crash; he performed a perfect, mid-air 360-degree flip, his tiny goggles fogging up with joy.

The Landing

They all tumbled onto a soft mossy log near a Box Turtle who was busy falling in love with an Armadillo. Avocado bounced twice, his GoPro still recording the whole "Brainrot" investigation.

"Why were you running?" Jack panted, his fur standing up in static-electrified tufts.

Avocado adjusted his goggles and looked at them with wide, watery eyes. "Running? I wasn't running. I was just trying to get to the Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons before the early bird special ended."

Hammer looked at Jack. Jack looked at the Armadillo.

"Well," Hammer sighed, putting his mallet back in his belt. "At least we got the footage. This is going to kill on #DreamTrackAI."

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0TMbRWk4WjI	The making of Jack and Hammer, cartoon cat and mouse, bang
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r384VZLXu3A	It's go time with Grandma and hot grits in the ring
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hxicWioIX38	How to take the loose end of crochet stitch, put it over the main strand, fold loop
_Tn8GDwQxAU	Police officer can't stop car due to cruise control being stuck #crazycars #carwars
HIXe_nKGXwA	Untitled Help I can't put my foot in a shoe without a hole in the shoe
SbURuV-AfKw	Untitled Magical crochet gargoyle quitter I Quit doodle art animation
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Ws8yubqGV9k	Join the National Guard.
Y42d9L-TPl4	Untitled You U Ewe and I, eye aye have gone on a date a couple of times haven't we?
UK9nCeVtutU	Untitled door dash ambulance Authorized official shambulance services
s0zhJiIvVI4	How to skip one crochet, stitch and count to 3 #moderncrochet #beginners
6rfXhtSP5xk	Cuddlefish jellyfish love at first sight in the ocean, prairie of plankton.
LGU4J83SAxs	Green avocado goes zip lining A top the forest canopy Wee
arAPCXGIWCs	Untitled Hapoy Jake Patrick Wesley Day
jS4zJkPKeY8	Untitled I love ❤️ you Singing pickle
qzs14JC3VUY	Holly Bitcoin Tap Dance Lessons
PzLApGgcrDw	Unlisted cat Video Bob chicken Crane
ZSNHIl-H_YA	Trolls in tin foil hats Following.\n The microwave team That looks like fun
cK5lfQtYRL0	Ma.\n King a crochet larger one, 2, 3, Stitching.\n A square. Basic beginner, crafting.
iao2E0zcS0Y	The life of bug, Mushroom soldiers set up tents inside of refrigerator cooling system #theoutcasts
jsnY8MNuZ34	Best cooling system on the planet fixed by maintenance refrigerator repair #applianceexperts
_UGblsuJUnw	My artificial intelligence tool on YouTube is really popular, it's telling me to try again tomorrow.
5VYC607cWVw	#DreamTrackAI pretty little baby, wiggle loves give me
WWB1d8vomoI	Gorilla vs Laughing cactus toy
8kKjbmBxytA	Hippopotamus manatee love at first sight
UuRPSEgUONw	Untitled Sunshine smiles, fluffy ponies Singing rainbow
MuaLc-TsHb8	unlisted can't touch this
Oh1h3EYHT6w	The interior microwave, preventive maintenance checks and services team Inspections
qytG5WJmjH0	Me police officer and best friend interrogate a hairball #brainrot very bizarre investigation
aqgdVA9zh90	Jack McAuley Doggy Day Care
1hJy1EeMquw	Unlisted Unclassified
zMfSaHTThaE	How To freeform crochet flower 🌼 #doodle
dKb1qRc3o9o	yeti best friend and cactus doing winter dance ballet in snow
hKynH3bUS1s	Dairy cow and Buffalo love at first sight on the prairie
CxNKsmayhGY	Crochet string scrap 🪹 nest for baby birds
nDzxUT-XaqY	Untitled Steam Engine LocomotiveTrain transitional scene
GQGUaP3GCH8	Geminisyria Cooking Pizza in outdoor Stone fire pit with Trollba
Avz8V3n_GMg	The airplane pilot has left the cockpit and is fixing a sewer leak in the bathroom. #squawkbox
tpOQC0ZO2Qs	The making of cartoon Jack and Doodle Fire Rescue Airplane
J2QnlZxfPDE	Unlisted
zO11ZBlTuk0	untitled cat reflections
vxy39kHdeYo	Grim Reaper CEO It's my panel and you will respect me, Administrative desk job clerk opening
82j_JU_L2Hg	When space force attends a retirement party for National Guard, Major Foughcup
Q3gfpuOd1tU	I've tried to like people. I really have, and then they start talking and breathing And stuff
dA7Hm9ZCG3Q	Divorce attorney Request 4% inflation alimony from divorce judge For ex, wife, survival
W20EkPyA8h4	Untitled pointing to the sky pose
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EMsniptQwao	Out of control ambulance in the middle of the interstate Off key sirens #emsweek
O2CdiQDAgOw	Me running through under water transpatent cables in the ocean with emoji balls
m_UBIWxyKjc	Gerbils and mice scratching a record
kzE4Z4gWIgQ	Untitled working with grown men in the corn 🌽
tpWdK6sqUd0	Grim reaper and best friend crash a stadium concert giving tourists a tour Through the arena.
DrMa2hwb6Ts	Untitled Below river window displays local attraction
Q02wFzUWqq4	The Curiosity Hook: The making of Jack Star and Hammer Cartoon
ICFUxXR_hBA	Jack Rabbit Skunk Love in the woods
9KZe4RnXfOA	Armadillo box turtle love near fern moss log deep in the forest.
FqthJO69_oA	County Sheriff helicopter pilot gives command code to GPS AI- "Accel UR L8 twerk" #quadcopters
BL6RojCX47Q	She didnt just dance, she defied gravity, vaudeville big band era
lrhNN8WfdVY	Tarnished copper green armadillo drone takes flight
Nop7msLpFbo	Ice Police arrest Oticfyptokmiss Rodriguez during building ladder escape
VfgRh7Ihu_8	Police arrest trollGPTchat
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ceU9T6Y--C8	Slip and Fall Droidbot Doggabuls Synergy Drink TransOracle Lipplate lawsuite Zoroke partner
NstJxUjDXOg	Untitled unitard, yoga tree pose
Zx6BBFXOXmE	My GPS says I was doing 55 miles an hour, Stubborn Hard-headed police officer Traffic stop
oopFOTBwRKA	How to use yarn as a blending tool for smudging, Transitioning Pencil pen drawings. Art Sketch Tip
FkjnyVeY-Mk	Unlisted Partial Unredacted Committee on Judiciary Jack Smith Report
i_naFvEeaP8	The vacuum hose vent safety cleaning drone To reach high places inside the home Prevent slip fall
8EepbpHH5gs	Google's clients are having a URL barf 403 error #remotejobs #sidehustle
9OxrKTj2p-Y	March 8, 2026
hqyDrKMckmA	CPU central processing unit green energy HVAC BOILER room cleaning maintenance
iS6iZjXv8Ok	The claymation cartoon story of spaghetti and noodle, the Blue Bird family Nest
7zT96UKY9yY	Surrender Burart
S-fYKAxS22Y	Security alert US embassy Doha, Shelter in place, Travel advisory To avoid region Recommend
wXMNDNyadOY	Untitled Books: My husband John is a Senator Kennedy
bGrUFNfeOBo	Man wins Presidential Medal of Freedom for missing the woman He dated and ex. Husband
M7h1tuBSAaU	No love anticipated from Chicago windy city or Detroit 8 miles, Eminem burn #seo
bjdsRjfinfM	How to crochet a free form star Random stitches and more 10LightStar01 is live!
8U1Yd92_9Tk	Mirror Love Bird
RXg88dMgxf0	The dancing xenophobic xylophones, World stage collaboration
C2JpWEjuXB4	Happy Valentines Day from crochet Pup stitch
p5qNmwVz2d8	Google Meet calling replacing (legacy) Duo Exposes your phone number and email
Ln_4tmLAMSY	Would a woman hire male lawyer knowing that he had cheated on his wife? #divorcelaw #divorcelawyer
a9IGBuS2a-E	Logmei silly hairball dance
boavDBvWgjs	Flashing police car drone lifts off from a top of very tall roof of a skyscraper.
jr_Yfh3y78c	He set the country backwards with his domestic violent attitude with physical abuse towards me
WpBEkq0gPWw	Untitled Remix
gPtMY579pjQ	This guy is admitting he's purposely manipulating people by playing dumb frauds & scam
KzvNCrlxa8s	Giant plushy octopus hugs couple
-pmCMnQut-E	Police arrest ogoniff sleeping on mailbox Dropbox #firstamendment #DreamScreenAI #aperturefoundation
CKYUeWHFczo	Lock him up , - No one is above the law
9pFR8UEBsxw	The first steps, and last steps are not needed for the crochet heart pattern
PzdL5mn0Baw	The blossoming love of the 2 colored people, He loves his wife so very much
pMFd1mZiJRk	Grim Reaper & Reapress Get married, Do you abide by invisible threats control According to his rules
n4nf4bB-Jo8	When active duty military shows up to the space force
EYLww4NNraI	Was this a mistake? Remembering the old spark, Caring For an abuser

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/31/2026)

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5D Change:  11.81%

Alphabet Gains $400B in Market Value as Google Cloud Drives Recovery Despite Free Cash Flow Concerns

Alphabet rallied 6% Thursday, adding approximately $400 billion in market value alongside Amazon and Microsoft, which collectively gained nearly $1.5 trillion this week. The surge came as Amazon's strong earnings revived investor confidence in AI infrastructure spending, with Google Cloud emerging as Alphabet's primary valuation driver according to analysts. The company's AI investments continued expanding, with Nexus Data Centers nearing $15 billion in financing for a Google-backed Anthropic AI campus. Separately, Crusoe announced a $1 billion expansion of its Google-linked data center Project Llano. However, multiple analysts warned that Alphabet faces a free cash flow collapse due to massive AI capital expenditures, with one analyst recommending investors sell now and revisit later. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly considering whether to make Alphabet its next major holding following its Apple position. Meanwhile, Oracle analysts cited an Alphabet partnership as catalyst for potential 200% upside to $400 per share. The company faced operational setbacks when Google yanked its new Earth AI image-editing tool just one day after launch amid criticism it enabled deepfake creation of disasters and refugee camps. Reddit stock plunged 23% after its CEO cited choppy Google search referrals, raising concerns about changes to Google's search algorithm impacting partner traffic. Big Short investor Steve Eisman disclosed on CNBC he sold his Google position, expressing doubts about the AI trade. Alphabet finished July up just 0.94%, significantly trailing Microsoft's 24.58% gain and Amazon's 13.95% rise, though outperforming Meta's 1.17% decline. Strategy's Michael Saylor noted AI spending by Google and peers represents a near-term headwind for Bitcoin as capital flows into infrastructure buildout.

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Earnings Events

Amazon Surges 14% Leading Market Rally as Tech Earnings Drive Major Index Gains

Amazon stock soared 14% Friday, marking its best single-day performance in a decade and propelling Jeff Bezos past Sergey Brin to become the world's third-richest person. The rally drove major indices higher, with the Dow climbing 140 points and Nasdaq leading gains as chip stocks also advanced. Intel and AMD posted significant gains alongside Amazon's growth acceleration. However, the session saw sharp declines elsewhere: Karyopharm Therapeutics and BioAge Labs each plummeted 60%, while Stryker shares fell on unspecified pressures. Oracle and GE Vernova rallied, while Apple's decline partially offset broader market strength. The mixed results highlighted divergent fortunes across sectors despite the tech-driven advance.

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Currencies Events

Japan Intervenes with $59 Billion Yen Purchase as Asian Markets Stage Historic Rally

Japan executed a massive foreign exchange intervention, selling approximately $59 billion to support the yen, sending USD/JPY plunging from above ¥163 to near ¥158. The 3% yen surge forced dollar traders to retreat and sent shockwaves through currency markets. South Korea joined the intervention effort, lifting the won alongside the yen. The Kospi rebounded by a record 18% following the coordinated action. The dollar index recovered modestly above 100 after initial losses, while the rupee extended gains ahead of India's central bank policy decision. The intervention preceded the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates at 1%.

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USD/JPY Posts Biggest Single-Day Drop Since 2022 as US Backs Japan Intervention

The dollar-yen pair experienced its sharpest decline since 2022 after the US Treasury signaled potential support for Japanese currency intervention. The euro briefly topped 1.15 before retreating as the dollar recovered. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy stance.

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Misc Events

Major Oil Companies Post Record Profits as Iran Conflict Disrupts Markets While Production Adjusts

ExxonMobil and Chevron reported combined profits that quadrupled over three months as the U.S.-Iran conflict drove oil prices higher and created supply disruptions. Chevron's CEO noted key assets ran at or near full capacity during Q2, while ExxonMobil's CFO affirmed the company would maintain Mideast growth plans despite losing half a million barrels of daily production to the conflict. Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain initially pushed prices higher, with Brent crude approaching $91. However, market dynamics proved more complex than simple war premiums. China significantly reduced oil imports from both inside and outside the Hormuz strait, including dramatic cuts to Russian and Omani supplies, helping offset disruptions through demand adjustment and higher reserves. U.S. crude production fell to 13.714 million barrels per day in May from 13.967 million in April, with the Gulf of Mexico accounting for most of the decline. Crude stocks dropped over 7 million barrels week-over-week. Refining capacity remained historically tight relative to demand, keeping fuel-making margins elevated. Both oil giants are exploring new revenue streams, with Chevron pursuing energy deals with data centers. Meanwhile, BP announced plans to sell North Sea assets, complicating British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's re-industrialization agenda.

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NatWest Lifts Guidance After Profit Surge, Accelerates Share Buybacks

NatWest reported second-quarter profit jumped 20% and raised its fiscal 2026 income outlook while advancing its share-buyback timeline following stronger-than-expected first-half operating results.

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Oil And Gas Events

Oil Prices Decline as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizes Despite Regional Tensions

Oil prices eased as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery, with 18 tankers tracked exiting over seven days averaging 1.861 million barrels daily. Meanwhile, ADNOC purchased additional tankers as Middle Eastern shipping crises continue reshaping global oil trade routes.

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BP Puts U.K. North Sea Business Up for Sale

BP has initiated a sales process for its North Sea operations, with the U.K. energy minister monitoring the situation.

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UAE Overhauls Crude Oil Pricing Mechanism in Major Middle East Market Shift

ADNOC is switching its crude oil pricing benchmark from Murban futures to Platts Dubai, marking one of the most significant changes to Middle East crude pricing methodology in recent years.

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Chevron Posts Six-Year High Profit on Surging Oil Prices

Chevron reported its highest quarterly profit in six years, surpassing analyst estimates as oil prices surged amid Iran war tensions.

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Healthcare Events

Novo Nordisk's Experimental Heart Drug Fails Phase 3 Trial; Karyopharm Cancer Study Misses Endpoint

Novo Nordisk's ziltivekimab failed to reduce cardiovascular events in the ZEUS Phase 3 trial despite lowering inflammation markers, dealing a setback to the company's expansion beyond diabetes and obesity treatments. The study of over 6,300 patients with cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and elevated inflammation showed no benefit in preventing heart attacks and strokes. Separately, Karyopharm's endometrial cancer trial missed its primary endpoint, sending shares down 69%. Medicus Pharma received UAE approval to study teverelix for endometriosis treatment.

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Moderna Norovirus Vaccine Fails to Meet Trial Success Criteria

Moderna reported its experimental norovirus vaccine failed to achieve statistical success criteria in early trial results, despite the company narrowing its overall quarterly loss. Shares declined 1.6% in premarket trading following the announcement.

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Biotech Surges on FDA Panel Approval While US Measles Cases Hit 35-Year High

A biotech company jumped 132% following a favorable FDA advisory panel vote on its skin cancer treatment. Meanwhile, the US confirmed over 2,300 measles cases in 2026, the highest annual total since 1991, driven by declining vaccination rates. The milestone was reached by July, already exceeding last year's full count. Moderna and Coinbase drew pre-market attention as investors assessed vaccine sales and institutional crypto activity.

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Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Treasury Yields Hit Four-Month High as Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hike

U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, with the 10-year reaching 4.74%, its highest level since January. Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended calls for a 25 basis point rate increase, boosting near-term tightening expectations despite White House advisor Hassett characterizing the yield surge as temporary.

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Macro Events

Treasury Yields Hit Four-Month High as Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hike

U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, with the 10-year reaching 4.74%, its highest level since January. Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended calls for a 25 basis point rate increase, boosting near-term tightening expectations despite White House advisor Hassett characterizing the yield surge as temporary.

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Three Fed Officials Dissent on Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Three Federal Reserve policymakers voted for interest rate hikes this week, citing stubborn inflation as their primary concern. The dissenters warned that delaying rate increases could allow inflation to become entrenched and harder to control, mounting internal pressure on Chairman Kevin Warsh to act despite current data.

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Fed Chair Warsh Proposes Reducing Number of Policy Meetings

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh proposed reducing the frequency of Federal Reserve policy meetings during this week's gathering, requesting official feedback. A revised schedule could be approved before September's meeting, though implementation timing remains uncertain.

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Stock Markets Events

S&P 500 Ends July Flat as Amazon Rally Offsets Semiconductor Selloff

The S&P 500 finished July essentially unchanged, snapping its winning streak after closing down 0.1% for the month. The index posted its best two-day rally since April, gaining 2.6%, driven by Amazon's surge that helped ease AI-related concerns. However, the semiconductor sector suffered its worst month since October 2008, plunging 20%. Cognizant led S&P 500 gainers for July, while Corning and SanDisk posted the steepest declines. The Dow Jones closed up 343.91 points, and the Nasdaq gained 299.66 points in the final session.

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Mixed Trading Session as Stocks Show Divergent Moves Amid Market Uncertainty

Traders signal potential market top as ES futures hit resistance near 7515. Individual stocks showed sharp divergence with Micron volatile, Integer surging, while Edison International, Perimeter Solutions, Live Nation and NXP Semiconductors declined.

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Bitcoin Drops to Two-Week Low Near $62,000 Amid US Stock Weakness

Bitcoin fell 3.5% to approximately $62,000, reaching two-week lows as US equities failed to mirror Asia's rally, despite US Bitcoin ETFs posting their strongest three-week performance.

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Technology Events

Chinese AI Startup Moonshot Trains Kimi K3 Model on Alibaba's 20,000-GPU Nvidia Cluster

Moonshot AI developed its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 language model using approximately 20,000 Nvidia GPUs accessed through Alibaba Cloud infrastructure. The partnership demonstrates Alibaba's capacity to provide large-scale computing resources for AI development in China, enabling domestic startups to build competitive models rivaling US capabilities.

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Crypto Events

Bitcoin Drops to Two-Week Low Near $62,000 Amid US Stock Weakness

Bitcoin fell 3.5% to approximately $62,000, reaching two-week lows as US equities failed to mirror Asia's rally, despite US Bitcoin ETFs posting their strongest three-week performance.

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Corporate Actions Events

T-Mobile Executives Reject Deutsche Telekom's $300 Billion Merger Proposal

T-Mobile's U.S. executives have withdrawn support for a proposed $300 billion merger with controlling shareholder Deutsche Telekom, citing opposition from major institutional investors. Shareholders expressed concerns about Deutsche Telekom's slower growth compared to T-Mobile's U.S. operations. The deal also faces potential resistance from U.S. government officials seeking to keep T-Mobile's domestic revenues onshore, effectively stalling merger discussions.

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Geopolitics Events

Trump Escalates Iran Rhetoric, Vows to Hit Country "Very Hard"

President Trump intensified threats against Iran, stating the US will strike "very hard" until Iran concedes defeat. Trump declared Iran is "being decimated" and emphasized his goal is simply to "win" the conflict.

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What the COLDCARD Incident Teaches Us About Seed Entropy and Trust

Disclosure: This account represents Cuvex, a hardware security device that uses user-generated dice-and-coin entropy as its standard Bitcoin wallet-creation process.

We are sharing this as a technical comparison of two different entropy models—not to attack Coinkite, claim that hardware random number generators are inherently unsafe, or suggest that any security implementation is infallible.

Coinkite recently published a security advisory concerning seed phrases automatically generated by certain versions of COLDCARD firmware.

The incident reinforces an important principle:

BIP39 structure vs. effective entropy

Under BIP39, a 24-word mnemonic encodes:

• 256 bits in its entropy field
• 8 checksum bits
• 264 bits in total

A correctly generated 24-word mnemonic should therefore originate from a space of:

2^256 possible entropy values

However, this is only true if the generation process actually produces 256 unpredictable bits.

A mnemonic can contain valid words, pass its checksum, derive valid keys and be accepted by standard wallets while still originating from a significantly smaller effective search space.

What Coinkite reported

According to Coinkite’s preliminary technical analysis, affected devices may have generated seeds from effective search spaces of approximately:

• 40 bits on affected Mk3 devices
• 72 bits on affected Mk4, Mk5 and Q devices

These figures are preliminary estimates and may change as Coinkite’s investigation continues. They should not be interpreted as exact measurements of every individual affected seed.

For comparison:

• 2^40 ≈ 1.1 × 10^12
• 2^72 ≈ 4.7 × 10^21
• 2^256 ≈ 1.16 × 10^77

The problem was not the visible BIP39 structure of the affected mnemonics.

The problem was the amount of unpredictable entropy behind them.

Updating the firmware does not repair a seed generated by affected firmware. Users covered by the advisory should follow Coinkite’s official instructions, create an entirely new wallet and migrate their funds.

This does not make all hardware RNGs unsafe

A correctly designed and implemented hardware random number generator can provide excellent cryptographic entropy.

Automatic seed generation does, however, require an entire implementation chain to operate correctly:

• the physical entropy source;
• RNG initialization and configuration;
• firmware implementation;
• combination or hashing of entropy sources;
• device and build configuration;
• the execution path actually used during seed creation.

A failure anywhere in that chain may reduce effective entropy without changing the appearance of the final mnemonic.

That is the broader lesson from this incident.

COLDCARD’s manual dice option

COLDCARD also supports user-supplied entropy through repeated rolls of a conventional six-sided die.

A fair D6 roll provides a maximum theoretical entropy of:

log₂(6) ≈ 2.585 bits

Its documented method uses approximately:

• 50 rolls for a 128-bit target;
• 99 rolls for a 256-bit target.

Using one die repeatedly is mathematically valid when the rolls are private, independent, correctly recorded and correctly processed.

The relevant difference is therefore not that one die is unsafe.

The difference is whether physical user-generated entropy is an optional mode or the standard wallet-creation process.

How Cuvex generates wallet entropy

Cuvex does not rely exclusively on an internal automatic seed generator.

Its standard wallet-creation process requires:

• four color-coded six-sided dice;
• one coin;
• 23 accepted physical rounds;
• complete offline operation.

Each attempt has:

6^4 × 2 = 2,592 possible combinations

The English BIP39 dictionary contains:

2,048 = 2^11 words

Cuvex maps accepted dice-and-coin combinations directly to those 2,048 words.

When a result falls outside the usable dictionary range, the device rejects it and requires the user to repeat the round.

This is rejection sampling.

It avoids the bias that would be introduced by simply reducing 2,592 possible outcomes modulo 2,048.

After rejection sampling, each accepted round selects one of exactly 2,048 BIP39 words:

log₂(2,048) = 11 bits

Across 23 accepted rounds:

23 × 11 = 253 bits

The process therefore provides up to:

How the final word is constructed

The first 23 selected BIP39 words encode 253 bits.

The Cuvex firmware then:

1. Deterministically derives the remaining three bits from those 253 bits using SHA-256.
2. Forms the 256-bit BIP39 entropy field.
3. Calculates the standard eight-bit BIP39 checksum.
4. Constructs the 24th word.

Conceptually:

user_entropy = 253 bits from 23 accepted physical rounds

remaining_3_bits = deterministic SHA-256-derived bits

bip39_entropy = user_entropy || remaining_3_bits

checksum = first 8 bits of SHA-256(bip39_entropy)

word_24 = remaining_3_bits || checksum

Because the additional three bits are deterministic, they do not add independent entropy.

The accurate claim is therefore:

We are not claiming 260.8 bits of effective entropy or 256 independent physical bits.

The raw input space before rejection is larger, but rejected results do not become part of the mnemonic. Deterministically derived bits also do not add new entropy.

Is 253 bits materially weaker than 256 bits?

From the perspective of exhaustive search, 253 bits represents:

2^253 ≈ 1.45 × 10^76 possible entropy values

The practical difference between 253-bit and 256-bit exhaustive-search resistance is irrelevant against any realistic brute-force attack.

The more meaningful distinction is architectural:

This reduces dependence on failure modes involving:

• incorrect RNG initialization;
• predictable internal state;
• firmware or build configuration errors;
• unintended execution paths;
• silent reductions in automatically generated entropy.

It does not make firmware irrelevant.

The device must still correctly capture the results, reject out-of-range combinations, map accepted values, derive the final bits and calculate the BIP39 checksum.

Physical entropy does not eliminate implementation risk.

It changes the trust model and the origin of the unpredictability.

Open implementation

The relevant Cuvex firmware is publicly available for inspection.

Reviewers can examine:

• how the dice and coin are converted into an index;
• how out-of-range combinations are rejected;
• how accepted results map to BIP39 words;
• how the remaining three bits are derived;
• how the checksum and final word are constructed.

We believe entropy claims should be connected to inspectable implementations rather than inferred solely from the number of words displayed by a device.

Optional BIP39 passphrase

Cuvex also supports an optional BIP39 passphrase.

The passphrase:

• is not literally a 25th seed word;
• does not repair weak seed generation;
• derives a completely different wallet;
• acts as an additional independent secret.

Its protection depends on its unpredictability. A short or common passphrase may add very little resistance, while a long, unique and random passphrase can add a substantial independent search space.

It also introduces operational risk:

Losing the passphrase means losing access to the wallet derived from it.

Conclusion

The COLDCARD incident demonstrates that the visible structure of a mnemonic is not proof of the entropy behind it.

The relevant technical questions are:

1. Where did the original randomness come from?
2. How much independent entropy was captured?
3. Were the source events sufficiently independent?
4. How was the source material converted into BIP39?
5. Was mapping bias removed correctly?
6. Could a hardware, firmware or build failure silently reduce the search space?
7. Can the implementation be independently inspected?

Automatic hardware entropy can be secure when correctly implemented.

User-generated physical entropy can also be secure when correctly performed and processed.

The distinguishing property of Cuvex is not that it exceeds BIP39’s 256-bit maximum.

It is that physical, user-generated entropy is the standard wallet-creation process, avoiding exclusive dependence on an automatic internal seed generator.

We welcome technical review of the implementation and constructive discussion.

Sources

Coinkite security advisory

Coinkite technical analysis

BIP39 specification

COLDCARD dice-roll documentation

Cuvex firmware

Dice-and-coin BIP39 mapping

Robinhood gewinnt, Coinbase verliert, und beiden hilft Crypto nicht mehr

Wenn man sich die Quartalszahlen von Robinhood und Coinbase anschaut, die gestern und heute veröffentlicht wurden, liest man zwei Versionen derselben Geschichte. Und die geht so: Wer 2026 als Crypto-Company überleben will, muss aufhören, eine Crypto-Company zu sein.

Robinhood hat gestern Abend Rekordzahlen geliefert. 1,31 Milliarden Dollar Umsatz, 32 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahr. Gewinn pro Aktie 0,62 Dollar, die Analysten hatten 0,41 erwartet. Nettoeinkommen 573 Millionen, plus 48 Prozent. Das Problem ist nur, woher das Geld kommt. Event Contracts und Prediction Markets haben 156 Millionen eingebracht, ein Anstieg um das Zehnfache. Optionshandel brachte 342 Millionen, Aktienhandel 129 Millionen. Und Crypto? 100 Millionen. Minus 38 Prozent zum Vorjahr. Zum ersten Mal in der Firmengeschichte haben Prediction Markets mehr eingebracht als der gesamte Crypto-Bereich. CEO Vlad Tenev betont, dass Robinhood inzwischen 13 Geschäftsbereiche betreibt, jeder über 100 Millionen annualisiert. Die Aktie ist trotzdem 4 Prozent gefallen.

Coinbase hat heute nachgelegt, und die Zahlen sind härter. 1,22 Milliarden Umsatz, die Wall Street hatte 1,29 bis 1,35 Milliarden erwartet. Nettoverlust: 359,5 Millionen Dollar, oder minus 1,36 pro Aktie. Erwartet war ein Verlust von einem Cent. Das ist das dritte Quartal in Folge mit Verlust, nach minus 667 Millionen in Q4 2025 und minus 394 Millionen in Q1 2026. Transaction Revenue fiel 21 Prozent auf 599 Millionen. Selbst das Subscription-Geschäft, das als Stabilitätsanker verkauft wird, lag unter der eigenen Prognose. Die Aktie verlor nach Börsenschluss rund 6 Prozent.

Was mich an diesen Zahlen am meisten beschäftigt, ist die Parallele. Robinhood hat die Kurve gekriegt, weil es rechtzeitig aufgehört hat, sich auf Crypto zu verlassen. Options, Prediction Markets, Gold-Abonnements, eine eigene Blockchain als Infrastrukturprojekt. Coinbase versucht denselben Weg, Bitcoin-Transaktionen machen nur noch 12 Prozent des Umsatzes aus statt über 50 wie früher. Aber die Diversifizierung greift zu langsam. Drei Quartalsverluste hintereinander bei der größten US-Börse für digitale Assets, das ist kein Ausrutscher mehr.

Im Mai hat Coinbase 700 Stellen gestrichen, 14 Prozent der Belegschaft. Das Spot-Handelsvolumen ist im Quartal um 25 Prozent gefallen, die Volatilität lag auf Mehrjahrestiefs. Der eigentliche strukturelle Wandel ist aber ein anderer: Das Geschäftsmodell Retail-Spot-Trading, die Idee, dass eine Börse davon leben kann, dass Privatanleger Bitcoin und Altcoins kaufen und verkaufen, funktioniert nur in Bullenmärkten. Und die haben wir gerade nicht.

Quellen: Robinhood (Q2 Earnings, 29.07.2026), Coinbase (Q2 Earnings, 30.07.2026), CoinDesk (COIN -5%, HOOD -4%), CNBC (Coinbase Q2), Decrypt (Coinbase Miss), Fortune (Robinhood Prediction Markets)