There is a difference between hype and fundamentals. Wall st bonus or Chinese New Year or new partnership is a hype cycle.
Buy the rumour sell the news is a hype cycle.
The halvening is a fundamental event. Bitcoin is fundamentally undervalued compared to its market cap right now. Intrinsic value is greater than market cap. Intrinsic value is 8.5k right now. The price of Bitcoin on the spot exchanges always reverts back to the intrinsic value over time. The stock to Flow model is cointegrated which means that if you plot the error between Bitcoins traded price and the model predicted price it forms a bell curve around the intrinsic value. This bell curves proves the legitimacy of the model If the model was wrong the plot wouldn't result in a bell curve. It would have chaotic spurious data.
A lot of people think stock to Flow model is just good because it looks accurate on the chart. But truth is it mathematically checks out
Here is how you can work it out yourself:
1/ First, you need to choose a program like Microsoft excel.
2/ Then, you want to load a dataset of the price history of BTC. So in one column you'll have the day and in the other column you'll have the price.
3/ You'll want this data to go back as far as possible to have as much data as possible. So thats 10 years of daily data. Would give you 3650 rows.
4/ Then, on the next column you need to put the predicted price of bitcoin according to S2F.
5/ Then, in the next column you want to subtract the previous column from the one before it. This new column will be your error data set. Which tells you each day how overshot or undershot the predicted price was.
6/ For the S2F flow to be cointegrated, the error dataset should form a bell curve (it should be "normally distributed") To calculate whether the error data set is normally distributed you need to use a normality test. There are several in data analysis. A popular one is the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test.
7/ After you conduct this test it will tell you how closely the error set matches a bell curve. The more it matches a bell curve the better the prediction model is.
Bitcoins Stock to Flow model: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
Hodlers play a huge role in the stock to flow.
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