morning update

The S&P 500 futures trade 12 points, or 0.3%, above fair value after the major indices struggled in a defensive session yesterday. Futures linked to the Russell 2000 are up 0.7% after the small-cap index dropped 3.6% yesterday.

Semiconductor stocks are some of the biggest gainers this morning after Intel (INTC 65.57, +2.07, +3.3%) announced an "IDM 2.0" expansion strategy, starting with a $20 billion investment to build two factories in Arizona. INTC shares are up 3% in pre-market action, and the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX 414.33, +6.90) is up 1.7%.

More generally, the broad market, including chipmakers, appears to be in a consolidation pattern amid quarter-end rebalancing factors and a wait-and-see mindset for the economic reopening/recovery. The S&P 500 was trading at the current levels in mid-February.

In economic data, Durable Goods Orders for February (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the final IHS Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs for March at 9:45 a.m. ET. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 2.5% following a 2.2% decline in the prior week.

The 10-yr Treasury note yield is down two basis points to 1.62% after settling lower the past two days, while the 2-yr yield remains unchanged at 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 92.48. WTI crude futures are up 2.4%, or $1.40, to $59.16/bbl after revisiting a six-week low yesterday.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Intel (INTC 65.57, +2.07): +3.3% after announcing a $20 billion expansion investment to build two new semiconductor factories in Arizona and saying it expects Q1 results to be better than prior guidance. INTC also guided FY21 EPS below consensus due to chip shortages. Adobe (ADBE 464.00, +3.80): +0.8% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and issuing upbeat guidance for Q2 and FY21. On a related note, its CFO will retire this year. GameStop (GME 158.50, -23.25): -12.8% after missing top and bottom-line estimates and disclosing that it's been evaluating whether to increase the size of the at-the-market offering program and whether to potentially sell shares of its Class A common stock. GME observed that 2021 is off to a strong start. Tesla (TSLA 668.80, +6.64): +1.0% amid a tweet from CEO Elon Musk that the company will now accept bitcoin for car purchases. General Mills (GIS 59.50, -1.69): -2.8% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates. Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -2.0% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.0% China's Shanghai Composite: -1.3% India's Sensex: -1.7% South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.4%. In economic data: Japan's flash March Manufacturing PMI 52.0 (last 51.4) and flash March Services PMI 46.5 (last 45.8). February Corporate Services Price Index -0.1% yr/yr (last -0.4%) South Korea's February PPI 0.8% m/m (last 1.1%); 2.0% yr/yr (last 0.9%) Australia's flash March Manufacturing PMI 57.0 (last 56.9) and flash March Services PMI 56.2 (last 53.4) New Zealand's February trade surplus NZD181 mln (last deficit of NZD647 mln) In news: The Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting minutes showed a continued commitment to easing. Honda will extend its production halt at some North American plants due to supply chain delays. Australia's Manufacturing PMI expanded for the tenth consecutive month in the flash reading for March. Australia's Treasury Secretary Kennedy said that some job losses are expected once the current support scheme lapses. Major European indices trade on a modestly lower note while Italy's MIB (+0.2%) outperforms. STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% Germany's DAX: -0.4% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% France's CAC 40: -0.1% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%. In economic data: Eurozone's flash March Manufacturing PMI 62.4 (expected 57.7; last 57.9) and flash March Services PMI 48.8 (expected 46.0; last 45.7) Germany's flash March Manufacturing PMI 66.6 (expected 60.8; last 60.7) and flash March Services PMI 50.8 (expected 46.2; last 45.7) U.K.'s flash March Manufacturing PMI 57.9 (expected 55.0; last 55.1) and flash March Services PMI 56.8 (expected 51.0; last 49.5). February CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.2%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 0.7%). February Core CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.5%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.4%; last 1.4%). February Input PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 1.0%) and Output PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.8%) France's flash March Manufacturing PMI 58.8 (expected 56.5; last 56.1) and flash March Services PMI 47.8 (expected 45.5; last 45.6) In news: German Chancellor Merkel overturned her decision to implement a hard five-day lockdown over Easter in response to public uproar. Germany's ifo Institute lowered its 2021 GDP growth forecast for Germany to 3.7% from 4.2% while raising the outlook for 2022 to 3.2% from 2.5%. U.S. equity futures:

S&P 500 Futures: DJIA Futures: Nasdaq 100 Futures: Overseas:

Europe: DAX -0.4%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.1% Asia: Nikkei -2.0%, Hang Seng -2.0%, Shanghai -1.3% Commodities:

Crude Oil +1.26 @ 59.02 Nat Gas +0.001 @ 2.555 Gold +3.30 @ 1728.40 Silver +0.083 @ 25.310 Copper +0.0145 @ 4.094

U.S. Summary:

Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar): 21Vianet (VNET) reports Q4 results, provides revenue guidance for Q1 and FY21 AAR Corp (AIR) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line Adobe (ADBE) beats by $0.35, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY21 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus APi Group (APG) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line At Home Group (HOME) beats by $0.38, beats on revs Federal Signal (FSS) reaffirms FY21 guidance in slide presentation GameStop (GME) misses by $0.08, misses on revs, comps +6.5%, does not plan to provide quarterly comp data in FY21 due to store closures last year, names new COO, Feb monthly comps +23% General Mills (GIS) beats by $0.12, beats on revs; provides outlook Intel (INTC) expects Q1 results to be better than prior guidance but guides FY21 EPS below consensus as PC revenue will be tempered by industry-wide component shortages Steelcase (SCS) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below two analyst estimate Turning Point Brands (TPB) estimates that Q1 net sales will be at the high end or above previous guidance Winnebago (WGO) beats by $0.72, beats on revs Worthington (WOR) beats by $0.24, misses on revs General News: China only purchased 33% of goods under phase one trade deal, according to Bloomberg Suez Channel diverted ships to older channels after a large container ship blocked passage, according to Reuters EU aiming to prevent exports of vaccines manufactured there for 6 weeks, according to NY Times Indiana will remove all business restrictions and mask mandate beginning April 6. The state will also open up vaccines to all adults starting March 31, according to ABC News HHS says 2021 special enrollment period access extended to August 15 on HealthCare.gov for marketplace coverage Republicans expressed early opposition to $3 trillion infrastructure plan, according to Washington Post Adobe (ADBE) announces retirement of CFO John Murphy Altria (MO) announces intended retirement of Chairman Thomas F. Farrell II, effective in May Amazon (AMZN): Company selects Adam Selipsky (formerly of Salesforce's Tableau Software) to head Amazon Web Services Amazon (AMZN) aiming to sell stake in Deliveroo for up to $148 mln, according to Bloomberg AutoZone (AZO) authorizes repurchase of an additional $1.5 bln of common stock Daimler AG (DDAIF): Mercedes Benz will temporarily suspend truck production in Brazil, its second largest market, due to worsening pandemic, according to Reuters Discover Financial Services (DFS) and Network International Jordan signed an agreement that will enable merchant acceptance across Jordan, for Discover, Diners Club International and network alliance cardholders GameStop (GME) discloses that since January 2021 it has been evaluating whether to increase the size of the at-the-market offering program and whether to potentially sell shares of its Class A common stock Honda (HMC) aiming to extend production suspensions at some plants in North America through next week, according to Reuters IBM (IBM) Security announced new and enhanced services designed to help organizations manage their cloud security strategy, policies and controls across hybrid cloud environments Intel (INTC) announces $20 bln expansion of the company’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity, beginning with plans for two new factories at the company’s Ocotillo campus in Chandler, AZ J.M. Smucker (SJM) and JDE Peet's announce strategic liquid coffee partnership Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $3.7 bln Missile Defense Agency contract Merck (MRK) appoints Caroline Litchfield Chief Financial Officer Myovant Sciences (MYOV) and Pfizer (PFE) report Phase 3 LIBERTY study of once-daily Relugolix combination therapy in women with uterine fibroids met primary endpoint Nintendo (NTDOY) aiming to use Nvidia (NVDA) chips in next Switch model, according to Bloomberg Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded $3.9 bln Missile Defense Agency contract Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk says consumers can now use Bitcoin to purchase cars Thermo Fisher (TMO) launches nationwide COVID testing program to support US efforts to return to in-person classroom instruction Toyota Motor (TM), Isuzu Motors (ISUZY), and Hino Motors (HINOY) ink new commercial vehicle partnership M&A: BRP Group (BRP) agrees to acquire Only Medicare Solutions; terms not disclosed Inphi's (IPHI) proposed acquisition by Marvell (MRVL) receives Chinese regulatory approval Wells Fargo (WFC) divests its Corporate Trust Services for $750 mln to Computershare Yum! Brands (YUM) has acquired Tictuk Technologies; financial terms not disclosed Syndicate: AVEO Oncology (AVEO) prices offering of 6 mln shares of common stock at $8.00 per share Celcuity (CELC) files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering ChromaDex (CDXC) files for 3,846,153 share common stock offering by selling shareholder Global Blue (GB) files for 6,666,665 share common stock offering by selling shareholders MP Materials (MP) prices secondary offering by selling shareholder of 6 mln shares of common stock at $35.00 per share and offering of $600 mln of its 0.25% Green Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 NextEra Energy (NEE) files mixed securities shelf offering Piedmont Lithium (PLL) prices public offering of 1.75 mln of its ADSs at $70.00 per ADS Prothena (PRTA) commences public offering of ordinary shares; size not indicated scPharmaceuticals (SCPH) files for $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering Second Sight Medical Products (EYES) announces $27.9 mln private placement of common stock ViacomCBS (VIAC) prices offerings of Class B common stock and Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock for combined net proceeds of $2.65 bln IPOs: Priced to Trade: ACV Auctions (Nasdaq: ACVA): Provider of a digital marketplace for wholesale vehicle transactions and data services. Prices 16.6 mln share IPO at $25.00 per share, above the expected range of $20-22. DigitalOcean (NYSE: DOCN): Cloud computing platform offering on-demand infrastructure and platform tools for developers, start-ups and SMBs. Prices 16.5 mln share IPO at $47.00 per share, at the high end of the expected range of $44-47 Expected to Price: Alignment Healthcare: (Nasdaq: ALHC): Developer of a next generation, consumer-centric platform for senior healthcare. 27.5 mln shares. Initial range $17.00-19.00. Cricut (Nasdaq: CRCT): Developer of connected machines, design apps, and accessories and materials used to make handmade goods. 15.3 mln shares. Initial range $20.00-22.00. Leonardo DRS (NYSE: DRS): Provider of defense products and technologies that are used across land, air, sea, space and cyber domains. 31.9 mln shares. Initial range $20.00-22.00. Diversey Holdings (Nasdaq: DSEY): Provider of products that protect and care for people through leading hygiene, infection prevention and cleaning solutions. 46.2 mln shares. Initial range $18.00-21.00. LAVA Therapeutics (Nasdaq: LVTX): Biotechnology company transforming cancer treatment by developing a platform of novel bispecific antibodies designed to selectively induce gamma-delta T cell-mediated immunity against tumor cells. 6.7 mln shares. Initial range $14.00-16.00. Olink Holding (Nasdaq: OLK): Developer of a platform that has been used to generate more than 250 million protein biomarker target data points. 17.7 mln shares. Initial range $16.00-18.00. SEMRush (NYSE: SEMR): Provider of an online visibility management software-as-a-service platform. 16.8 mln shares. Initial range $14.00-16.00. thredUp (Nasdaq: TDUP): One of the world’s largest online resale platforms for women’s and kids’ apparel, shoes and accessories. 12.0 mln shares. Initial range $12.00-14.00. VIZIO (NYSE: VZIO): Leading manufacturer of Smart TVs. 15.1 mln shares. Initial range $21.00-23.00.

Gapping Up/Down

Gapping up: HOFV +79.9%, DLPN +70.3%, PLBY +18.4%, DVAX +8.5%, BNGO +6.1%, LRCX +5.1%, INTC +4.8%, AMAT +4.7%, KZIA +4.2%, KLAC +3.4%, LH +2.6%, MYOV +2.5%, KBR +2.2%, IPHI +2.1%, HOME +2%, MRVL +1.9%, AIR +1.8%, ACCD +1.5%, CME +1.3%, MOS +1.2%, WWR +1.2%, CVNA +1%, ADBE +1%, OI +0.9%, FSS +0.8%, AMZN +0.7% Gapping down: GME -12.5%, CASI -12.3%, PLL -7.2%, EYES -6.4%, MP -3.4%, SCS -3.3%, PRTA -1.8%, AMD -0.9%, NEE -0.7% Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

Upgrades: Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $43 Banc of California (BANC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $24 BNY Mellon (BK) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $8 Central Garden (CENT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist Cloudflare (NET) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $110 CME Group (CME) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities Continental Resources (CLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MKM Partners; tgt $34 Estee Lauder (EL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $340 Everest Re (RE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $316 Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste (ASR) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BBVA Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein Matador Resources (MTDR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MKM Partners; tgt $30 NextDecade (NEXT) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $3 Pacific Mercantile Bancorp (PMBC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12 Zscaler (ZS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $225 Downgrades: Bausch Health (BHC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $27 Centerspace (CSR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research Credicorp LTD (BAP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; tgt $150 Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley Grupo Aeroportuario (OMAB) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BBVA Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BBVA Vinci Partners (VINP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities Others: INTRUSION (INTZ) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $35 Oasis Petroleum (OAS) initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners OceanFirst Finl (OCFC) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global Securities; tgt $28 Repay Holdings (RPAY) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $29 Synovus (SNV) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global Securities; tgt $53 Upcoming Events:

Econ Data: 07:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -2.2%) 08:30 ET: February Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%; prior 3.4%) and Durable Orders ex-transportation (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 1.4%) 09:45 ET: Final March Markit Manufacturing PMI (last 58.6) and final March Markit Services PMI (prior 59.8) 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +2.40 mln) Earnings: Monday (Mar 22) Morning: None of note Afternoon: SNX TME Tuesday (Mar 23) Morning: DOYU HUYA INFO NEOG Afternoon: AIR ADBE HOME GME SCS Wednesday (Mar 24) Morning: APG GIS WGO WOR Afternoon: AMWL GRWG FUL KBH RH SCVL Thursday (Mar 25) Morning: DRI MOMO Afternoon: GAN OXM PRGS SAIC Friday (Mar 26)
Morning: None of note Afternoon: None of note

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -2.0%, Hang Seng -2.0%, Shanghai -1.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. The Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting minutes showed a continued commitment to easing. Honda will extend its production halt at some North American plants due to supply chain delays. Australia's Manufacturing PMI expanded for the tenth consecutive month in the flash reading for March. Australia's Treasury Secretary Kennedy said that some job losses are expected once the current support scheme lapses.

In economic data: Japan's flash March Manufacturing PMI 52.0 (last 51.4) and flash March Services PMI 46.5 (last 45.8). February Corporate Services Price Index -0.1% yr/yr (last -0.4%) South Korea's February PPI 0.8% m/m (last 1.1%); 2.0% yr/yr (last 0.9%) Australia's flash March Manufacturing PMI 57.0 (last 56.9) and flash March Services PMI 56.2 (last 53.4) New Zealand's February trade surplus NZD181 mln (last deficit of NZD647 mln) ---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei: -2.0% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.0% China's Shanghai Composite: -1.3% India's Sensex: -1.7% South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.4% ---FX---

USD/JPY: +0.1% to 108.73 USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.5223 USD/INR: +0.2% to 72.64

Europe: DAX -0.4%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade on a modestly lower note while Italy's MIB (+0.2%) outperforms. German Chancellor Merkel overturned her decision to implement a hard five-day lockdown over Easter in response to public uproar. Germany's ifo Institute lowered its 2021 GDP growth forecast for Germany to 3.7% from 4.2% while raising the outlook for 2022 to 3.2% from 2.5%.

In economic data: Eurozone's flash March Manufacturing PMI 62.4 (expected 57.7; last 57.9) and flash March Services PMI 48.8 (expected 46.0; last 45.7) Germany's flash March Manufacturing PMI 66.6 (expected 60.8; last 60.7) and flash March Services PMI 50.8 (expected 46.2; last 45.7) U.K.'s flash March Manufacturing PMI 57.9 (expected 55.0; last 55.1) and flash March Services PMI 56.8 (expected 51.0; last 49.5). February CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.2%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 0.7%). February Core CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.5%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.4%; last 1.4%). February Input PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 1.0%) and Output PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.8%) France's flash March Manufacturing PMI 58.8 (expected 56.5; last 56.1) and flash March Services PMI 47.8 (expected 45.5; last 45.6) ---Equity Markets---

STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% Germany's DAX: -0.4% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% France's CAC 40: -0.1% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1% ---FX---

EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.1825 GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.3716 USD/CHF: +0.2% to 0.9359