5 Things to Start your day

China trade surges, U.S. inflation data, and Bitcoin hits record high.

Recovery signs China's trade jumped in March, with exports climbing more than 30% from a year earlier in dollar terms, adding to signs that the global economic recovery is progressing well. The data comes as vaccine rollouts across the world continue to pick up pace. The unevenness of that rollout remains an issue however, with policymakers in the U.S. sounding very positive on the outlook while bodies pile up at crematoriums in India.

Inflation Consumer prices are expected to have jumped 2.5% in March from a year earlier, when the data is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Inflation numbers will probably show significant price increases for the next few months as base effects from the 2020 lockdowns skew the data. The White House says inflation is likely to settle down after a temporary acceleration over the coming months. Price rises are on the minds of consumers, with a growing share of Americans seeing the rate rise over 4% in the year ahead.

Bitcoin record Bitcoin jumped to an all-time high above $63,000 this morning as cryptocurrency bulls are out in force. While advocates of the digital asset have been pushing for its integration for years, recent moves by major Wall Street banks to allow clients to access crypto investments have helped recent moves higher. The fast-growing digital currency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. is expected to go public tomorrow with a $100 billion valuation.

Markets rise The calm in global equity markets is continuing today, with gauges moving into the green after yesterday's small reversal. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.2% higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.3% by 5:50 a.m. with retail and travel stocks the strongest performers. S&P 500 futures indicated a move into the green at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.693%, oil was over $60 a barrel and gold slipped.

Coming up... The oil market will read OPEC's latest monthly report when it is published this morning with interest after the decision to increase production at the latest meeting of the cartel and its allies. The U.S. will sell $24 billion of 30-year debt at 1:00 p.m. The Federal Reserve holds an event on racism and the economy at which several policymakers are scheduled to speak.

What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

Secrecy and abuse claims haunt China's solar factories in Xinjiang. Day traders know a bubble when they see one, and they want in. SPAC boom faces new SEC threat with accounting crackdown. Deliveroo flop, Jamie Dimon threats stoke fears about London's post-Brexit future. China imported a record amount of meat in March. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on a market turning point. Black holes like to eat, but have a variety of table manners. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning Happy CPI Day! As you know by now, today's report is going to get a lot of attention because on a year-over-year basis the number is going to show a big jump, as Reade Pickert explains well here. Of course the big question for markets is not how prices of goods compare to last year's collapse, but what happens from here on out as society continues to normalize.

In the meantime, here's three things I'm thinking about with regards to inflation.

1. You could argue that MMTers take inflation more seriously than the mainstream. Stephanie Kelton had a great NYT column last week on basically how to pay for a massive fiscal stimulus program. The gist is that it's not about matching up dollars spent versus dollars collected in taxes and hoping that if they balance out that inflation will be mild. Instead it's about actually taking stock of the real resources available to do fiscal expansion (equipment, labor etc.) and figuring out how to deploy it in a way that won't create economic strains. When you compare her reasoning to the mainstream discussion, which focuses on getting the rate of interest just right, or matching up outlays with revenues, it's a more sophisticated discussion of inflation and what it means to pay for government spending.

2. With the government engaging in a historic scale of deficit spending and the Fed still expanding its balance sheet, sundry cranks like to point to periods of hyperinflation like Weimar as being indicative of our future. But as Zach Carter explains in an upcoming episode of Odd Lots, the real precursor to hyperinflation is some kind of political collapse. A complete lack of faith in the system. You also need some sort of major destruction of potential output, which we don't have. But if you were to worry about American hyperinflation, signs of political collapse are more ominous than a hot CPI reading.

3. Everyone's talking about all of the inflation that will happen as the economy continues to reopen. But it also seems plausible that some inflationary impulses have already peaked. For example, as Brendan Murray has been tracking, the delays at the Port of Los Angeles actually peaked in February and are slowly coming down. As consumption shifts more from goods to services, it seems plausible that some of these logistical logjams and bottlenecks that we keep talking about will continue to ease. Of course it might be tough to rent a car or get a hotel this summer, so there will be issues. But it's at least possible that we've seen the worst on some fronts already.