Monday, August 9, 2021

Could this be the Delta Variant ?

First off, we need to understand what the Delta Variant is, many read the news but the news tends to distort information , truncate, sensationalize it, and also dont really make sense of the science. There is also some political whitewashing going on with COVID news, you would hear one set of information from one source - like the WHO, then hear a completely different set of information & suggestion from say CNBC.

The key difference between the Delta variants and others is Transmissibility. The original Wuhan Strain that was first isolated in China has an R0 of ~2.5. The Alpha Variant of this strain that became prevalent in the west has an R0 of ~4.5. The Delta variant today has an R0 of 5-9. Source

That means every 1 person infected with the Delta variant, is expected to infect 5-9 more people. This is on average and a scientific value not further tampered by human density, lifestyle, etc. There are also superspreader events that are possible hence the large variation in the R0 number.

So this means that 1 person with the Delta variant can spread it to 9 person in a worse case scenario, then that will further spread to another 9 person and so on. So that means by the 3rd layer, 1 patient infected with Delta variant would have spread it to 729 people .

For an understanding of how virulent the Delta Variant is, it has very rapidly eclipsed the Alpha variant as the dominant active variant in the US where 93% of all cases in the US are now Delta variant.

Beyond this there is also a new variant called Delta +. This is still being monitored.

The total number of cases thus far in Brunei is 406. Before this the number of cases total before community spread was less ~300.

The first COVID case in Brunei came in on 11 March 2020. The pattern of the first few days of cases was : 10 - 0 - to a peak of 26 cases followed by a descending amount of cases down to 0, interspersed with a few days of 0 cases or low count. In less than a month by 9 April 2020, we have got it down to Zero cases. I believe this would have been likely the Wuhan Strain with an R0 of ~2.5.

There are 98 active cases in Brunei right now. This represents nearly 1/4th of the total amount of cases in Brunei , all collected within this week or so. Within 3 days, we have had 8 + 17 + 42 cases reported. This is nothing like the case chart from back in March 2020. This falls into the pattern of Delta variants R0, and the original few patient zeros have not yet been isolated and traced down. Bruneis Covid Chart looks like this, which is set to spike right up with the recent cases as if its Bitcoin's price chart.

Note that the Delta variant is not yet confirmed. As per MoH's PC, they have sent it to Singapore for genetic sequencing that takes weeks. We do not actually know if it isnt Delta variant - as claimed by Athlan Ozman in BB the other day which i would surmise as misinformation.


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