https://i.redd.it/li1hcgde0cw81.gif
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022 Is the Year of the MOASS [8 Reasons Why ∞ Soon]
§1: RC's BBBY Call Options
§2: Utilization
§3: The Algorithm
§4: Stock Split
§5: NFT Marketplace
§6: Market Crash
§7: DRS
§8: DOJ Investigations
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
§1: RC's BBBY Call Options
1 month ago, RC purchased not only a significant amount of BBBY shares, but also a significant amount of call options, as per SEC Schedule 13D Filing from RC Ventures:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000886158/000119380522000426/sc13d13351002_03072022.htm
Under ITEM 3,
“The aggregate purchase price of the 7,780,000 Shares directly owned by RC Ventures is approximately $119,376,296, excluding brokerage commissions. The aggregate purchase price of the call options exercisable into 1,670,100 Shares owned directly by RC Ventures is approximately $1,785,263, excluding brokerage commissions.”
Here’s more details on the options he purchased:
Call options varying from $60-$80, expiring January 2023.
This means that RC is betting that the price of BBBY will surpass $80 anywhere from now till January, 2023. These are the furthest OTM options that he could by (meaning that the highest price he could bet the stock was going to surpass was $80, and he purchased those contracts).
The price of BBBY stock at the time of recording is around $15, meaning that for RC’s $60 calls to go ITM, the price of BBBY would need to increase 301%+ its current price (and increase 434%+ for the $80 call options). For this to happen, there’d need to be a January 2021-type run up, which is not possible anymore without igniting MOASS. In other words, RC is betting MOASS before January, 2023. However, due to theta decay on options contracts, RC is most likely anticipating MOASS to happen way before January, 2023 (likely sometime around mid-2022), which would be around the time of the NFT Marketplace/Stock-Split Dividend, which makes sense.
Also, if we further ponder why RC would go with BBBY contracts instead of GME contracts, it makes perfect sense. RC is the type of guy to only want to either HOLD or HODL his GME shares. I doubt he’ll be interested in selling any GME shares during MOASS, as to not inhibit the legendary event. But, if he wanted to collect profits on the MOASS, he could sell his BBBY options instead. BBBY, being one of the basket stocks attached to GME’s price, will squeeze once the MOASS launches, and so RC could turn his million dollar option position with BBBY into billions in profits, selling those contracts and collecting billions without messing with the MOASS directly. A brilliant play.
§2: Utilization
I’ve always considered utilization (percentage of shares available to borrow that have been lent) to be an important factor for determining our proximity to a squeeze. When I was primarily focused on αmc during the first half of 2021, one of the big factors I looked for was utilization, so when utilization hit 100% in May, I knew some significant price movement to the upside was going to come. It only took a few weeks after 100% utilization for the stock to go up 600% afterwards. Did MOASS ignite? No. That, to me, was merely FOMO, which took the basket stocks, along with GME, to critical levels in June that SHFs did everything they could to suppress the price (from getting their pals to dump shares, to stock halts, etc.). We should note, however, that utilization was at 100% for only a few weeks.
In “Short Squeezes and Their Consequences”, Schultz states "I find that the likelihood of squeezes is very low for most stocks. The risk of a squeeze becomes important when stocks are hard-to-borrow. Utilization, that is the proportion of shares available to lend that are currently on loan, has a strong positive correlation with the probability of a short squeeze. If utilization is high and a share loan is recalled, it is difficult to find a new source of shares. I find that for the majority of stocks that have low utilization rates, an all lender short squeeze appears about once every 40 years. For stocks with very high utilization of 90% or more, an all lender squeeze occurs about once every 11 days." https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4025226
This goes in line with what I witnessed with αmc on May-June, 2021.
However, in the case today, GME has been at 100% utilization for 50+ consecutive trading days, which is big.
For reference, utilization was at 100% for about 90 consecutive trading days, leading to the January, 2021 run up.
Now it looks like we’re repeating that same pattern:
For utilization to be at 100% for so long at this point tells us that the spring is loading up for something BIG, and whatever is coming is going to explode like nobody’s ever seen before. The January run up in 2021 was pure FOMO. That can’t happen anymore. If GME explodes past critical margin levels, MOASS begins (legitimate short positions closing) and that 100x run up from August 2020-January 2021 will be peanuts compared to what’s coming.
Note: I’m not saying that the current utilization will emulate the January, 2021 utilization data. It could easily take longer than 90 consecutive trading days, but every trading day at 100% utilization adds to the pressure which will inevitably make the price erupt into a nuclear MOASS. Another few months of consecutive 100% utilization alone will make the price of GME substantially harder to control.
§3: The Algorithm
The stocks are BRN.AX and GME
I’m looking for a correlation coefficient for these two stocks.
BRN.AX from September 2, 2020 to September 2, 2021
GME from January 21, 2021 to January 21, 2022
For one, it indicates future buying power/algorithmic movement [I’ll be going over the algorithm deeper in the next section]. Now, this doesn’t mean that the price movement is dependent on delta sensitivity spikes. The algorithm didn’t say “hey, GME needs to go from $4 to $400+ by January, 2021”. That’s not how it works. What happened there was retail FOMO. In the case of the delta spikes/algorithm was additional hedging/buying pressure from SHFs, which was algorithmically intended for GME’s price to increase in January, but the FOMO is what caused them to further lose control of the price, leading to the 100x run up from August-January.
§4: Market Crash
Speaking of algorithms, let’s talk about the algorithmic movement of the S&P 500.
There’s only so much that the government/institutions can do to artificially inflate the market until the inevitable crash comes, and it appears that time is approaching soon.
I came across a post by Ape "choochoomthfka", who analyzed and compared the current S&P 500 price movements with that of 2008 and discovered algorithmic correlations that pointing to a possible crash around the end of May, and just like the VW squeeze that came soon after the 2008 crash, the GME MOASS would come soon after the 2022 crash.
His statement: “I’ve independently confirmed the S&P chart overlay of 2008 & today for myself. The similarity is indeed striking, but I just wanted to alert apes to the fact that the progression is ~4.4x faster today than in 2008. If indeed similar, the big crash is ~May 20th and the squeeze ~May 25th.”
Now, although I agree that the current S&P price is likely being algorithmically controlled (via PPT, institutions, etc.), I don’t want to promote dates. The truth is that we aren’t entirely sure when the crash will happen. With a very strong confidence interval, I could say it will happen this year, but to say it will exact exactly near the end of May, I cannot. There can easily be wide standard deviations associated with these market algorithms that prevent us from pinpointing an exact date. For all we know, there’s unaccounted variables that could allow the algorithm to delay the market crash another 3 or 4 months after May. The algorithm simply optimizes the most strategic move. That’s all. If the S&P can no longer afford to be can kicked longer than June, the algorithm will signal and allow for the market to finally crash in June. However, if an externality shows up and changes the variables, it could delay things.
All I’m saying is don’t get attached to specific dates. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 is following a similar pattern to 2008 that indicates a high likelihood of a market crash for 2022. As you may know, a market crash begets extreme loss in collateral for SHFs, triggering margin calls, and as such, MOASS. It’s important to note, though, that similarly to VW, GME might initially dropped in tandem with a market crash, only taking off in the opposite direction as soon as shorts start closing from failed margin calls.
Federal rate hikes, China’s real estate market conundrum, the Feds cracking down on unsustainable overleveraged positions from hedge funds, regulatory agencies/clearing corporations filing rules preparing for defaulting members, are all additional signs adding to a likely market crash this year.
§5: Stock Split Dividend
I explained this in my “Checkmate” DD, so I won’t be going over it too much here.
Here’s the DD those interested:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/txnwhu/checkmate/
Basically, a 7:1 stock split (in the form of a dividend) would likely lead to MOASS, due to the fact that SHFs can’t come up with 6 times the amount of synthetics that they produced over the entirety of GME’s life within a relatively short time frame. This is why TSLA ran like crazy after they proposed the stock split dividend. Even if there was some sort of hidden loophole that they exploited, post-split dividend, we can expect FOMO (buying/DRS’ing pressure) to increase substantially, due to a significantly more affordable price.
§6: NFT Marketplace
The NFT Market was valued at $40 billion in 2021, per Chainalysis Inc. report: https://content.techgig.com/technology-unplugged/nft-market-touched-40-billion-in-2021-new-estimate-shows/articleshow/88773041.cms
Considering GameStop’s market cap is valued at $10 billion, there’s a lot of potential revenue GameStop can tap into by entering this market. Not only that, but as time goes on and crypto/NFTs become more globalized, the NFT Market can easily exponentially increase in valuation, similarly to how Bitcoin did when it started getting adopted by institutions internationally as a store of value.
OpenSea, currently the world’s largest NFT Marketplace, is valued over $13 billion, according to Sephton at “CoinMarketCap Alexandria”: https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/opensea-now-has-a-valuation-of-13-3-billion
Yet, the OpenSea NFT Marketplace is incommensurable to the soon to be GME NFT Marketplace, due to a variety of reasons:
- OpenSea has extremely high gas fees, which deter business/revenue through their services and creates dead weight loss.
- Weak security protocols. They have tons of vulnerabilities in their code that makes them susceptible to attacks/thefts. Many examples in the past of OpenSea users suing the Marketplace for letting their NFTS get stolen by cyber thieves due to their “security vulnerabilities”.
- GameStop gets nearly 1,000x more organic traffic via search engines than OpenSea does.
GME succeeds where OpenSea fails, by utilizing its partnerships with Loopring & Immutable X to eliminate high gas fees as well as reinforce security, using Ethereum’s security rather than Polygon’s (etc.). GameStop’s NFT Marketplace will not only supersede, but augment the NFT Market as the dominant NFT Marketplace.
That being said, GME’s market cap is already $10 billion. Say they get in the NFT Market in the summer and hit a valuation just half that of OpenSea this year. GME would end up with a high enough valuation putting itself past a $200 price. Maintaining a GME price past $200 would obliterate critical margin levels at this point, initiating MOASS.
In case you haven’t noticed, something very big is gearing up this year, and I don’t think RC bought extremely OTM BBBY calls this year just for the fun of it.
Very large partnerships with blue chip companies may be revealed upon implementation of the GME NFT Marketplace, and I believe we saw hints of it back in February:
I’m going to end it with this. There were tons of complaints (likely from shills) that RC has been so secretive about the NFT Marketplace. If you have something REALLY good on your hands, are you going to go out and tell everyone? No. You wait until the time is right to present it. Companies that don’t have anything good on their hands will be all talk, nothing much to present. The talking would come to just fluff their position and provide a façade to investors. RC is the exact opposite personality. This project has been in the works for the past year, and I genuinely believe when it delivers that it will exceed expectations.
This NFT Marketplace, once implemented (and any additional hidden partnerships announced), could be a very big driver for FOMO soon after, ultimately breaking shorts’ banks and kickstarting MOASS.
§7: DRS
§8: DOJ Investigations
No comments:
Post a Comment