Wednesday, October 26, 2022

[Data]: A summary of DeFi bankruptcies and BTC price in 2022

Chart: BTC price plotted against recent crypto rug-pulls and bankruptcies

Dear reddit community,

In celebration of my account reaching 400 Karma I have decided to share one of my personal private charts with the public. This is a graph, which I have found very useful and I hope you would find it too.

Some explanations:

Red area - Symbolizes a "bear market". Calculations are done via my private indicator.

Green area - Symbolizes a "bull market" (even if it's a short run).

Some observations:

  1. It seems like initially bankruptcies had a big effect on the Bitcoin price, but as they got more often, the market sort of stopped reacting so strong to them (as seen in late summer).
  2. Unlike September 2021, when there was a big pump-and-dump in price as El Salvador was preparing to accept Bitcoin as a legal tender, in 2022 the "drop" happened earlier (about 2 days) before the "big event" of the year, which was arguably the Ethereum merge. It seems like retail investors have learned to "sell the news" earlier this time.
  3. Fed rate hikes did not appear to have some directionally observable correlation with BTC price, as such it was not plotted (but it was considered).

P.S: Shout out to the mods at /r/CryptoMarkets for deleting my post. Seems like it's not enough "data-centric" for them. 🤲


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