Saturday, December 17, 2022

Real talk... How does Bitcoin 'fail' from here?

I'm a staunch advocate and believer, I'm extremely highly confident in Bitcoin and I'm sure it'll be a bulwark as we enter a new era of enlightenment for humanity. I've been involved for over a decade and don't need all of the lectures on how and why that's going to happen. There are a hundred threads every day where everyone discusses this, and that's great and we should continue to do that. But can we consider some scenarios where it might not play out how we expect? Maybe we can think about these scenarios, assess their plausibility, increase our understanding, and make plans as a community to deal with them.

I'll start with a fairly obvious one. As much as we don't like it some recent events that shall not be named have evidently tarnished the reputation of Bitcoin with the masses in the short term and people have backed out as a consequence. If hashing power dips to a point where a state actor could feasibly make a 51% attack on the network we're probably done. I don't believe we'd be able to recover from it, and I don't believe we'd be able to co-ordinate an effort to continue a successor chain, or even a new protocol, and pick up where we left off.

I don't think this will happen, but we should acknowledge these possibilities and think about how we're not going to let it get to that.


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