Thursday, August 15, 2024

The SUI appreciation/Skeptics thread

Why SUI ? Recently SUI has brought a lot of eyes on it, and in general almost all encounters and opinions on this matter are either 50% bullish or 50% absolute hate. No inbetween.
You rarely see someone with a neutral opinion on SUI, it's either people fall in love with it, or people just genuinely hate it.

So I'm making this thread to discuss SUI. I will be taking the side of the bulls.

Summary of general opinions on SUI (not mine but the general audience)

Negative:
VC token
High inflation/ Low float
Another L1
Centralised
It's better than Solana, but it's not 1000x times better to justify "killing it"

Positives
Best performing L1 by far
VC backed token
Institutionaly backed
The team
New cycle token
Great hardcore community

I want you before we dwelve into the analysis to remind yourself why you are here in the first place as an individual. Are you here to debate idealism or to make money? It's extremely important because that decision itself should impact your whole point of view.

I am here on a personal level to make money. I am not here for the "culture" or to make any statement. I am here to maximize my financial gains and provide for my family.

Being 3 cycles in, people keep telling people things will change, wether it's a "supercycle" narrative, or "this time it's different'. Granted some "aspects" change, but unfortunately things are always the same and the outcome is often the same.

The current markets

It is by no suprise to anyone in here that the current market sentiment is the following:
It's only meme coins, it's a meme coin supercycle and altcoins are VC infested garbage and utilities are useless, at least on crypto twitter, and you're seeing a lot of prominent big accounts pushing this narrative like Murad. (for their own benefit)
Bare in mind, these guys ARE the "VCs", you can just check any presale round, do your research, and bizarelly guys like Ansem and co will always be there.

I invite you to reflect on that. I'm not debating the fact whether altcoins or utility coins are useless or not, but to some extent there is at least "effort" being made into them, and the "perception" of these make the markets look less of a joke and more of a serious one.
While meme coins, require absolutely 0 effort.

Meme coins (the strong ones)

  • Devs snipe 80-90% (they "hold the floor") : is this fairer than a VC being locked up for 2-3 years?
  • Devs most of them have launched 1000 tokens before succeeding with 1 (there's a gang of a couple of devs running these every month, they are well known, but somehow no one is bothered by it)
  • They get all the insiders very early on, who then shill to you at higher market cap and provide no value to attract retailers, but on the contrary to steal their money
  • Vastly illiquid : that's great you made 1M$, can you sell it?
  • Most likely outcome will evaporate and 1-2 will survive

I don't know about you guys, but that doesn't sound fair at all, on the contrary, looks like the VC coins are much fairer, because
1- the insiders and early people are very wealthy people accustomed to "pumping tokens", and are actively trying to make the space attractive to institutions and boomers, a net positive
2- The meme coin devs are mostly scammers that have launched 1000 tokens and are leeching "you" on every launch.

So again, reflect on this.

The meme coin phenomenon is extremely similar to:
2017 : BTC/BCH fork where people got genuinely disinterested in altcoins
2020 : People including very big accounts were "DEFI" only, and people were just randomly buying farming tokens and .finance tokens

We know how things ended up happening after.

SUI

Why SUI? My reasoning can apply to any token you actually like, it doesn't have to be SUI, but I picked SUI for these reasons.

New Cycle Token
Historically speaking, new cycle tokens attract a lot more new retailers for the following reason:
1- Teams have not "made it" yet and have the fire in them to push things hard
2- Budget and raises persist easier, allowing them to effectively deploy more marketing campaigns than compeition

New Meta

The Move narrative, coupled with the L1 traded (that always comes back as people love to see the big dog lose, wether it's ETH in 2021 against Solana, or Solana this cycle).

The Move langage is getting consensus amongst devs that it's the easiest to learn and the most efficient.
Documentations are very easy, and there are a lot of "fun" ways to learn move like:
https://letsmovesui.com/

Reminiscent of Web2 format of learning

It is also important to note that the MOVE langage is very similar to C++'s object oriented, making it so easy to build anything on it.

The technological aspect

This is the blabla part, and I know most don't even care about this, but it's also agreed that SUI is by far the fastest blockchain (the user experience on it is beyond insanity).
It is fair to say it has not been stress test, so I will give you points on that for counter argument.

Mystecity drives latency input and speed of transactions to below 0.3 seconds, which is instant, this brings a WEB2 experience.

The Team
Mysten Labs, ex META team, all stars , with the inventor of Move Sam Blackshear on board, how can you not be bullish on such a team.
Maybe you won't be, but normies, boomers and institutions sure do love credentials like this.

Community
The community is one of SUI's strong point compared to other new cycle tokens. SUI has a small but very hardcore community that isn't phased by price action, and that's what attracted me to SUI instead of Aptos for instance. It really reminds me of early Polygon days.
Their community events are packed compared to other competitors (i think you've seen the photos circulating)

Branding

The ticker is nice, SUI, and the water branding really is amazing.
Their designs are very good, the wallet is very easy to use and has this new age feeling to it.

Supply and market cap
The dark horse and the caveat to this equation, and listen I understand.
But, hear me out.

Do you believe in a Bitcoin going to 100-150k+?
In this case, would it not be logical that market caps and fdvs go higher this cycle than the previous ones?
For instance the 2017-2018 top's median top market cap was around 1B max, while in 2021 it was around 10-15B, which is a 10x-15x increase from just a 3x increase in Bitcoin price.
Can you not entertain the idea that mcap might as well increase, if not a 15x, but a 5-7x?

Also, let's not fool ourselves, in 2021 peak euphoria concepts like fdvs were non existent, the only thing that mattered was circulating supply, and that's what a new guy will look into

Also the monthly unlocks are perhaps harder to stomach in a dryer environment, but in an environment where assets start doing 1-5B$ in volume everyday, a 50-60M$ unlock a month isn't so bad.

TLDR

VC coins are good and will perform well as it is the market cycle, and SUI is one of them


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