Tuesday, January 28, 2025

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (01/28/2025)

Top Stories🎯

US Durable Goods Orders Plunge 2.2% in December, Core Orders Show Resilience

US durable goods orders fell 2.2% in December, missing expectations of a 0.6% increase. However, core orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts. The data suggests weakening demand for long-lasting goods but steady core sector activity.

Trump Reacts to Chinese AI Breakthrough as US Economic Data Mixed

Trump calls China's DeepSeek AI a "wake-up call" for US companies, potentially influencing his policy. December's durable goods orders fell 2.2%, while core orders rose 0.3%. Trump orders federal grant freeze, raising concerns across various sectors.

Trump Freezes Federal Grants and Loans, Raising Concerns Across Sectors

President Trump's administration has ordered a pause on all federal grants and loans, potentially disrupting various programs including education, healthcare, housing, and disaster relief. This decision has sparked widespread concern and legal questions from Democrats.

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Company News

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Performance Overview

1D Change: πŸ“ˆ 0.37%

5D Change: πŸ“ˆ 2.46%

News Volume: πŸ“° 119

Unusual Volume Factor: πŸš€ 9x

Starbucks Brews Better-Than-Expected Q1 Results, Signaling Early Success in Turnaround Efforts

Starbucks Corporation has reported its fiscal first-quarter earnings for 2025, showing signs of progress in its turnaround efforts under new CEO Brian Niccol. The company beat low earnings expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.69, surpassing the estimated $0.67. Revenue came in at $9.4 billion, slightly above the expected $9.31 billion. While global comparable store sales declined by 4%, this was less severe than the anticipated 5.3% drop, indicating that the customer retreat is beginning to subside.

Full coverage of $SBUX on MarketFlux.io

General Motors Company (GM)

Performance Overview

1D Change: πŸ“‰ -8.89%

5D Change: πŸ“‰ -7.14%

News Volume: πŸ“° 96

Unusual Volume Factor: πŸš€ 8x

GM Beats Q4 Expectations and Raises 2025 Outlook, but Shares Tumble Amid Tariff and Policy Concerns

General Motors (GM) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.92, beating estimates of $1.83, and revenue of $47.7 billion, exceeding the expected $44.46 billion. Despite these positive figures, GM incurred over $5 billion in special charges, including restructuring costs and impairment of interests in China joint ventures, as well as $0.5 billion related to the Cruise robotaxi shutdown.

Full coverage of $GM on MarketFlux.io

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Performance Overview

1D Change: πŸ“ˆ 12.0%

5D Change: πŸ“ˆ 9.03%

News Volume: πŸ“° 94

Unusual Volume Factor: πŸš€ 23x

Royal Caribbean Sails to Record Heights: Q4 Earnings Beat, 2025 Forecast Surges, and River Cruises on the Horizon

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. has reported impressive Q4 2024 earnings, beating estimates with adjusted EPS of $1.63 and revenue of $3.8 billion. The company's strong performance is driven by robust cruise travel demand and record-breaking bookings during the "Wave season." Looking ahead, Royal Caribbean forecasts a strong 2025, with adjusted EPS expected to be between $14.35 and $14.65, representing a 23% jump in profits. This optimistic outlook has sent the company's stock soaring to an all-time high of $258.82.

Full coverage of $RCL on MarketFlux.io

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

Performance Overview

1D Change: πŸ“‰ -9.18%

5D Change: πŸ“‰ -9.65%

Lockheed Martin Grapples with Q4 Losses and Cautious 2025 Outlook, but Strong Backlog Offers Hope

Lockheed Martin, the aerospace and defense giant, faced a challenging fourth quarter in 2024, with earnings falling short of estimates and the stock price slipping. The company reported Q4 earnings per share of $2.22, significantly below the expected $6.58, primarily due to $1.7 billion in pre-tax losses associated with classified programs. These losses impacted EPS by $5.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $18.62 billion, slightly below the estimated $18.91 billion.

Full coverage of $LMT on MarketFlux.io

Other News

πŸ“Š Stock Markets Events Summary

  • Retail Investors Bet on Nvidia Retail investors purchased $562M in Nvidia stock during the selloff caused by DeepSeek's disruption, signaling long-term confidence. The stock rebounded 5% in premarket trading.
  • Mixed Market Trends with 52-Week Highs Stocks like KALA, Sea Limited, and Bill.com hit 52-week highs, while others like Transcat and ASML declined. Market imbalances and outflows were noted across indices.
  • Smithfield Foods IPO Success Smithfield Foods shares rose 5.3% on their market debut, driven by strong investor demand despite a reduced IPO price.

πŸ–₯️ Technology Events Summary

  • Nvidia Leads Tech Rebound Nvidia surged nearly 9%, leading a Nasdaq rally after significant losses tied to AI market concerns. Other tech stocks, including Cloudflare and Snowflake, also gained as optimism returned.
  • OpenAI Unveils ChatGPT Gov OpenAI launched ChatGPT Gov, a tailored version of its chatbot for U.S. government use.
  • Chevron Enters AI Power Race Chevron plans to build natural gas power plants for AI data centers, marking its entry into AI infrastructure support.
  • Honda's Affordable EV by 2026 Honda will launch an electric vehicle under $30,000 in North America by 2026, aiming to capture the growing EV market.
  • UK Watchdog Targets Cloud Dominance The UK considers probing Amazon and Microsoft over cloud market dominance, highlighting competition concerns in the cloud sector.
  • DeepSeek Founder Meets Chinese Premier DeepSeek's founder met with China's Premier, showcasing the nation's growing AI ambitions and pride in its innovation.
  • SAP CEO Predicts AI Growth SAP's CEO sees opportunity in DeepSeek's launch, forecasting demand for commoditized AI infrastructure and products.
  • Google Appeals EU Fine Google is fighting a €4.3 billion EU fine over Android practices, arguing it penalized innovation and involved significant errors.

πŸ“ˆ Earnings Events Summary

  • Starbucks Beats Expectations Amid Sales Decline Starbucks exceeded Q1 earnings expectations with $0.69 EPS and $9.4B revenue but faced a 4% drop in global comparable store sales, marking its fourth consecutive quarterly decline.
  • Lockheed Martin Earnings Miss, Outlook Cautious Lockheed Martin's Q4 EPS dropped significantly to $2.22 due to $1.7B in losses on classified programs. Despite a cautious 2025 outlook, sales are projected at $73.75B-$74.75B, with $8.5B-$8.7B in cash flow.
  • Royal Caribbean's Strong Q4 and Bright Forecast Royal Caribbean outperformed Q4 expectations with $1.63 EPS and raised its 2025 profit forecast by 23%, driven by high cruise demand and plans to introduce river cruises.
  • Qorvo Beats Earnings, Stock Surges Qorvo posted Q3 EPS of $1.61 and $916.3M revenue, exceeding estimates despite a YoY revenue decline. Upbeat Q4 guidance boosted its stock by 17.5%.
  • JetBlue Narrower Loss and Revenue Beat JetBlue reported a smaller-than-expected Q4 loss (-$0.21 EPS) and $2.28B revenue. The airline anticipates a Q1 capacity decline but expects a positive operating margin in 2025.
  • PACCAR Misses Q4 Targets Despite Annual Strength PACCAR's Q4 sales and profits missed expectations, leading to a 3% stock drop, despite strong annual revenues.
  • General Motors Beats Q4 and Raises 2025 Outlook GM's Q4 EPS of $1.92 and $47.7B revenue exceeded estimates. The company raised its 2025 forecast, projecting EPS of $11-$12, despite $5B in special charges.
  • Commvault Beats Q3 Estimates Commvault exceeded Q3 expectations for revenue and EPS, with shares rising 4.5% on strong performance and a positive full-year outlook.
  • RTX Tops Earnings but Misses Revenue Forecast RTX reported better-than-expected earnings but missed revenue estimates, leading to a slight drop in shares.
  • SAP Sees Cloud Growth Driving 2025 Earnings SAP forecasts strong cloud revenue and profit growth in 2025, leveraging momentum in its cloud business.
  • Packaging Corp Misses Earnings but Beats Revenue PCA missed Q4 EPS estimates by $0.04 but exceeded revenue expectations. Shares fell 3% post-report, and Q1 2025 earnings guidance was issued.
  • Sysco Beats Q2 Estimates but Shares Dip Sysco delivered strong Q2 results and announced increased share buybacks, but shares declined 3% despite the positive outlook.
  • Nextracker Raises Outlook After Q3 Beat Nextracker beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, raising its guidance, which led to a 13.6% stock surge on NASDAQ.

πŸ₯ Healthcare Events Summary

  • Biotech Breakthroughs in Cancer and Diabetes Biotech companies unveiled promising developments, including Telomir's oxidative stress treatment, Leap Therapeutics' colorectal cancer results, and SAB Biotherapeutics' Type 1 diabetes therapy. Humacyte partnered with Pluristyx for diabetes treatments, while Pfizer and others advanced cancer research. The CD39-targeted therapy market is also expected to grow by 2025.
  • FDA Expands Ozempic for Kidney Disease Novo Nordisk's Ozempic was approved by the FDA for chronic kidney disease treatment in type 2 diabetes patients, making it the only GLP-1 receptor agonist with this indication and significantly impacting the kidney disease market.
  • RFK Jr. Softens Vaccine Stance Ahead of Confirmation Hearings Robert F. Kennedy Jr. clarified his vaccine stance, emphasizing their importance while pledging to address financial conflicts in health agencies, a strategic move as he seeks Senate confirmation as U.S. Health Secretary.
  • Drug Price Hikes and Nuformix Surge Over 800 medications saw price increases, with a median 4% rise. Nuformix's stock jumped 44% following an orphan drug application, boosting interest in its lead therapy.

🌍 Geopolitics Events Summary

  • U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Month Low Consumer confidence dropped unexpectedly in January, reflecting growing concerns about inflation and the labor market, raising potential implications for economic growth.
  • Canada-Mexico Tariff Deadline Set, Steel-Copper Uncertain The White House confirmed a February 1st deadline for Canada-Mexico tariffs but left steel and copper tariffs unresolved.
  • Serbian PM to Resign Amid Protests Serbian PM Milos Vucevic announced his resignation following growing student protests and corruption allegations, signaling political shifts in Serbia.
  • White House Investigates DeepSeek for National Security Risks U.S. lawmakers are evaluating potential security risks from DeepSeek's AI, with speculation about a possible ban.
  • Italian PM Investigated Over Libyan Officer's Release Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is under scrutiny for releasing a Libyan officer wanted by the ICC, raising concerns of embezzlement and affecting Italian bond yields.
  • Judge Blocks Trump’s Federal Funding Freeze A federal judge temporarily halted Trump’s funding freeze until February 3rd, delaying its implementation.
  • North Korea Expands Nuclear Efforts Kim Jong-un called for increased production of nuclear materials and weapons, pushing North Korea's military ambitions.
  • Trump Delays TikTok Ban Amid Microsoft Talks Trump confirmed Microsoft's talks to acquire TikTok, delaying the ban for 75 days due to security concerns and encouraging competitive bids.
  • Federal Worker Buyout Proposal Trump proposed buyouts for federal employees unwilling to return to office work, offering compensation for resignations by September.

🌍 Macro Events Summary

  • U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops U.S. consumer confidence fell to a four-month low of 104.1 in January, reflecting inflation and labor market concerns. This decline could influence consumer spending and economic growth.
  • Bond Market Dynamics and ECB Activity The ECB purchased bonds, Italy's bond yields dropped amid political turmoil, and U.S. Treasury yields rose as the Fed meeting commenced. Japan's Government Pension Fund may enter bond auctions, and Austria issued a major bond offering.
  • Canada-Mexico Tariff Deadline Set The White House confirmed a February 1st deadline for Canada-Mexico tariffs, while decisions on steel and copper tariffs remain undecided.
  • Bond Market Volatility Treasury yields fluctuated as Fed policies and bank risks created uncertainty. The 2-year yield fell, savings rates climbed, and a Treasury Bill auction is set for January 30.
  • BOJ Rate Hike Prediction Former BOJ official Makoto Sakurai forecasts a 1.5% interest rate by 2026, with rate hikes expected as early as July, signaling a monetary policy shift.
  • Chile Pauses Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Chile's central bank held interest rates at 5%, citing inflation concerns, while the Fed began its meeting with speculation about future policies.
  • Hungary Holds Interest Rates Steady Hungary's central bank maintained its 6.5% interest rate, reflecting caution amid ongoing inflation worries.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Improves The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to -4.0 in January, showing slower contraction as shipments increased but services revenue declined.
  • French Consumer Confidence Surges French consumer confidence rose to 92 in January, beating expectations and improving from December's 89.

πŸ’» Crypto Events Summary

  • X and Visa Partner on Xmoney Accounts X announced a partnership with Visa for its upcoming Xmoney accounts, marking Visa as the first partner in this financial venture.
  • Metaplanet Buys $745M in Bitcoin Japanese crypto giant Metaplanet plans to buy 21,000 Bitcoins, aiming to become a leading corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia.
  • Binance Under Investigation in France Binance faces a judicial probe in France over allegations of financial crimes, including money laundering and tax fraud, raising concerns about its regulatory compliance.
  • Ripple SEC Case Optimism The SEC removed Ripple's lawsuit from its litigation records, sparking speculation of a positive outcome for XRP.
  • Bitwise Proposes Dogecoin ETF Bitwise filed for a spot Dogecoin ETF, expanding investment options in the crypto space.
  • Arizona Advances Bitcoin Reserve Bill Arizona is considering a Bitcoin reserve bill, potentially becoming the first U.S. state to adopt such a measure.
  • Coinbase Expands to Argentina Coinbase received approval to operate in Argentina, strengthening its presence in Latin America's growing crypto market.

🏠 Real Estate Events Summary

  • Affordable Homes Outpace Luxury Sales in 2024 Affordable homes sold faster than luxury properties as housing affordability remained a challenge, especially in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Alexandria Real Estate Equities posted strong Q4 results, and new single-family home growth showed resilience despite higher interest rates.
  • U.S. Home Prices Show Unexpected Growth The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index revealed stronger-than-expected home price growth in November, with a 4.3% annual increase in the 20-City Index and 3.8% nationwide, signaling steady demand across most U.S. cities.

πŸ›’️ Oil and Gas Events Summary

  • Global Oil Operations Face Mixed Signals Sunda Energy initiated a survey ahead of drilling at Chuditch, while oil prices rose despite tariff concerns. In Libya, protests at key ports disrupted oil exports, and U.S. oilfield services struggled with revenue challenges.
  • TotalEnergies Resumes Mozambique LNG Project TotalEnergies reaffirmed its commitment to restarting a major LNG project in Mozambique that was paused in 2021 due to militant activity, with discussions progressing with the country's president.
  • U.S. Crude Inventories Rise Below Expectations U.S. crude stocks increased by 2.86M barrels, less than forecasted, while oil futures climbed as supply outlook tightened. Gasoline stocks rose, but distillates fell.

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