Is the 2025 bullrun officially over?

I have a bad feeling about this, guys.

I’ve been holding a little Bitcoin (just enough to keep me invested yet nervous) and lately I’ve been watching the market with more anxiety than usual. I wanted to share my thoughts and maybe get some feedback from you all.

What I’m seeing is that the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle is dead. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a pretty reliable “four-year cycle” tied to the halving event. After a halving, supply reduces, hype builds, we get a big bull run, then eventually a crash/crypto winter.

But now, many analysts suggest the cycle is “dead” because the halving supply-shock thesis isn’t as strong anymore, 95% of BTC is already mined, and institutional flows + ETFs + macro factors are playing a bigger role.

So all that is interesting — but here’s why I’m feeling uneasy:

• If the old cycle is indeed dead, then my assumptions (based on “buy near bottom of cycle, hold until peak, then sell”) might be invalid now. What if the peak is ahead or what if the structure changes so much I don’t even recognise the “top”?
• If institutional money and macro factors are more important now, then Bitcoin’s fate might be more tied to things like interest rates, regulation, global liquidity, which feel way more unpredictable than the old semi-routine halving-boom model.
• If the bull run isn’t over — that’s good in one way — but also scary: if I’m thinking it is over and I’m expecting a crash, maybe I’m missing out. And if I’m thinking the peak is now and I sell too early, I might regret it.
• On the flip side: what if the bull run is ending (or at least pausing) and Bitcoin heads into something that looks like a crypto-winter again? Then where do I stand?

So, am I getting nervous for no reason? Or is this truly a turning point for Bitcoin — the end of one era and the start of something new (which could be either good or bad)?

Would love to hear what you folks think — especially anyone who’s been through past cycles, or has changed strategy because of the new dynamics.

CLEANSPARK, INC. Annual Report Released - Here’s What You Should Know

Summary Report: CleanSpark, Inc. (Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2025)

Business Overview & Strategic Direction - CleanSpark is a data center developer focused primarily on bitcoin mining, but has expanded into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure. - During FY2025, CleanSpark mined ~7,873 bitcoins (net of pool fees). As of September 30, 2025, it held 10,428 bitcoin, valued at $1,189 million (fair value per bitcoin: $114,068). - Significant expansion included the acquisition of GRIID Infrastructure (adding Tennessee mining facilities) and land for future AI/HPC data centers in Texas, supported by a 620 MW platform in Georgia. - By period end, CleanSpark operated 336,544 miners (241,934 in service).

Key Financial Metrics - FY2025 revenues reached $766.3 million, up 102% from $379.0 million last year, mainly due to higher bitcoin production and prices (avg. mined price: $97,687/bitcoin; range for the year: ~$58,900 to $124,500). - Net income: $364.5 million (vs. prior year net loss of $145.8 million). - Adjusted EBITDA: $823.4 million (FY2024: $245.8 million). - Cost to mine one bitcoin (owned facilities): $42,956 (energy), $39,727 (depreciation), with total direct cost/bitcoin of $82,727. Energy cost comprised 43.9% of bitcoin mining revenue. - Cash and equivalents: $46.5 million; Total assets: $3.18 billion; Total liabilities: $1.01 billion; Stockholders’ equity: $2.18 billion. - Debt: $821.2 million net (majority from $650 million of 0% convertible notes due 2030, plus $174.5 million Coinbase line of credit). - As of November 19, 2025, common shares outstanding: 255,583,445.

Operational & Market Data - Mining operations spanned Georgia (15 sites, 620 MW), Tennessee (11 sites, 234 MW), Mississippi (5 sites, 63 MW), and Wyoming (2 sites, 110 MW); total operational: 1,027 MW, 45.6 EH/s, across 33 locations. - CleanSpark’s hashrate: 4.3% of global bitcoin hashrate. - Bitcoin sold periodically to fund operations/growth; also used as collateral for credit facilities. - All of bitcoin holdings are in cold/hot storage with Coinbase; not FDIC-insured. - Major suppliers: 96% of 2025 miner purchases from Bitmain Technologies. - No other cryptocurrency of value held outside of bitcoin.

Significant Transactions & Expansion - GRIID acquisition (Oct 2024): 5.0 million shares issued ($60.7 million) plus settlement of loans/obligations, recognition of $123.6 million goodwill. - ATM equity offerings in FY2025: 16.6 million shares for $186.8 million proceeds, supporting balance sheet and expansion. - Major capital investments in property/equipment: $808.2 million of additions in FY2025.

Risks & Forward-Looking Considerations - Highly dependent on the volatile price of bitcoin; historically, mining costs may exceed revenue if prices fall. - Regulatory environment for both crypto and AI/HPC sectors is rapidly evolving—potential changes could impact operations, costs, or legal standing. - Substantial supplier concentration (Bitmain), single mining pool operator (Foundry Digital), and dependence on key management personnel. - Significant expansion/diversification efforts into AI and HPC are capital intensive, unproven for CleanSpark, and may divert resources from core mining operations. - Outstanding legal proceedings include a certified shareholder class action and ongoing derivative cases, but no specific estimate of potential losses. - Treasury management now includes use of bitcoin-based derivatives, adding exposure to trading and counterparty risks. - Indirect tax contingencies: $64.5 million related to estimated sales and use tax exposures. - No dividends declared/planned; historical capital funded primarily via equity.

Capital Structure & Indebtedness - $650 million of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030 (issued Dec 2024); added $1.15 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due 2032 (issued Nov 2025—subsequent event; $460 million of net proceeds used to repurchase shares). - Repayment of all revolving lines of credit after year-end. - Capped call transactions tied to 2030 notes to hedge dilution risk.

Controls & Governance - Material weaknesses in internal controls identified as of FY2024 were remediated by end of FY2025. - Auditors provided clean opinions on financial statements and internal controls for FY2025. - No current restatements or detection of fraud reported.

Summary for Investors CleanSpark delivered strong FY2025 growth and profitability, leveraging the bitcoin price rally and successful scaling of mining operations, alongside aggressive expansion into AI/HPC infrastructure and significant capital investments. However, considerable business risk remains due to bitcoin price volatility, the highly concentrated supply chain, regulatory uncertainties, substantial capital needs, and legal exposures. Investors should monitor execution of diversification into new sectors, bitcoin market dynamics, and debt management.

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