The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (01/29/2025)

Top Stories🎯

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Caution on Inflation Progress

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing solid economic growth and stabilized unemployment. The Fed dropped language on progress toward 2% inflation, noting it remains "somewhat elevated" while risks are "roughly in balance." Fed Chair Powell declines to comment on President Trump's demand for lower rates, stating he's had no contact with the president. Powell emphasizes the Fed's commitment to its work, focusing on achieving goals while maintaining independence from political pressure.

Bank of Canada Slashes Rates, Braces for Potential U.S. Tariff Impact

Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3%, citing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs. Governor Macklem warns of recession risk and inflation challenges if tariffs are imposed, emphasizing the need for economic stability.

RFK Jr. Defends Vaccine Views in HHS Secretary Confirmation Hearing

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's nominee for HHS Secretary, faces Senate scrutiny over his controversial vaccine stance. He attempts to reframe his position as "pro-safety" rather than anti-vaccine, sparking debate and impacting vaccine stocks.

Meta Beats Q4 Estimates, Warns of Higher AI Costs Ahead

Meta's Q4 earnings surpassed expectations with $48.39B revenue and $8.02 EPS, up 21% and 50% YoY respectively. However, Q1 revenue guidance of $39.5B-$41.8B fell short of estimates, causing stock to dip. Meta plans significant AI investments in 2025.

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Company News

Asml Holding N.v. (ASML)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📈 4.29%

5D Change: 📉 -7.05%

News Volume: 📰 200

Unusual Volume Factor: 🚀 11x

ASML Surges on Record Q4 Earnings and Strong AI-Driven Demand, Dispelling DeepSeek Concerns

ASML Holding N.V., a critical chip equipment manufacturer, has reported impressive fourth-quarter results for 2024, surpassing expectations and alleviating concerns about AI-driven demand. The company posted record revenue of €9.3 billion for Q4 and €28.3 billion for the full year, with net income reaching €7.6 billion. ASML's bookings for Q4 soared to €7.09 billion, far exceeding analyst estimates of €3.53 billion, driven by strong demand for advanced chipmaking tools, particularly those used in AI applications.

Full coverage of $ASML on MarketFlux.io

T-mobile Us, Inc. (TMUS)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📈 6.37%

5D Change: 📈 7.78%

News Volume: 📰 94

Unusual Volume Factor: 🚀 11x

T-Mobile Surges on Record Q4 Earnings and Bullish 2025 Outlook, Showcasing Industry-Leading Growth

T-Mobile US, Inc. has delivered an impressive fourth-quarter performance, surpassing analysts' expectations and solidifying its position as a growth leader in the telecom industry. The company reported earnings per share of $2.57, beating estimates of $2.28, while revenue climbed 6.8% year-over-year to $21.87 billion. T-Mobile's success was driven by strong subscriber growth, with 1.9 million postpaid customer additions in Q4, significantly exceeding projections. The company's 5G leadership and focus on premium bundle offerings have contributed to its robust performance.

Full coverage of $TMUS on MarketFlux.io

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📈 8.16%

5D Change: 📈 11.1%

Starbucks Brews Optimism as Q1 Results Beat Expectations, Signaling Early Success in Turnaround Strategy

Starbucks Corporation reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, signaling early signs of success in CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround efforts. Despite a 4% decline in global comparable store sales, the company beat revenue estimates with $9.4 billion and surpassed earnings per share expectations at $0.69. Analysts have responded positively, with many lifting stock price targets and maintaining buy ratings. The company's strategy includes streamlining operations by cutting 30% of its menu items, improving efficiency with digital menus and algorithms, and enhancing the customer experience with ceramic plates and "mug hugs" to encourage longer visits. Niccol emphasized the importance of prioritizing customers and creating a welcoming atmosphere, even reversing the open-door policy when necessary. While challenges persist, including margin pressures and slowing traffic, Starbucks is showing progress in its turnaround plan. The company is also shaking up its leadership, adding two former Taco Bell executives to the team. Despite the ongoing transformation, Starbucks' stock hit a 52-week high, reflecting investor confidence in the new direction. However, some analysts remain cautious, with CFRA downgrading the stock to 'Sell' due to ongoing concerns. As Starbucks continues to implement changes, the market will be closely watching for sustained improvements in sales and customer traffic.

Full coverage of $SBUX on MarketFlux.io

Danaher Corporation (DHR)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📉 -9.73%

5D Change: 📉 -8.37%

Danaher's Q4 Earnings Miss Sparks Market Concern Despite Revenue Growth

Danaher Corporation's Q4 2024 earnings report has stirred mixed reactions in the market. While revenue exceeded expectations at $6.54 billion, up 2% year-over-year, the company's adjusted EPS of $2.14 fell short of the estimated $2.15. The BioTech segment slightly underperformed, with revenue of $1.87 billion against an expected $1.88 billion. Despite strong cash flow performance, with operating cash flow at $2.0 billion and free cash flow at $1.5 billion, Danaher's stock experienced a significant drop, touching a 52-week low. Investors' disappointment stems from the rare earnings miss and concerns about weak biotech demand. The company's Q1 guidance suggests continued challenges, leading to analyst price target cuts and increased market scrutiny.

Full coverage of $DHR on MarketFlux.io

Other News

📊 Earnings Events

Tech Giants Report Mixed Q4 Earnings

• Meta beat Q4 estimates with revenue of $48.39B (+21% YoY) and EPS of $8.02 but issued weaker-than-expected Q1 guidance, causing a stock dip.
• IBM and Lam Research saw solid AI-driven growth, while Tesla struggled due to EV market challenges.

Q4 Earnings Show Mixed Results Across Sectors

• C.H. Robinson exceeded profit estimates, while United Rentals missed earnings but beat revenue forecasts.
• Levi Strauss had strong holiday sales, Landstar System posted mixed results, and Whirlpool missed sales targets, causing an 11.7% stock drop.

Microsoft Beats Expectations, But Cloud Revenue Disappoints

• Microsoft reported $69.6B in revenue (above estimates), but cloud revenue of $40.9B fell short.
• Azure’s 31% YoY growth was below expectations, leading to a stock dip despite strong commercial bookings.

Western Digital & Wolfspeed: Mixed Q2 Results

• Western Digital beat revenue estimates but missed earnings, with weak cloud demand dragging down Q3 guidance.
• Wolfspeed narrowed losses and exceeded revenue estimates amid its silicon carbide transition.

Norfolk Southern Reports Solid Q4, CEO Optimistic for 2025

• The railway company met revenue expectations and improved its operating ratio, with the stock rising 2% pre-market.

ServiceNow Shares Drop Despite Earnings Beat

• Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, but a weak fiscal-year sales outlook and lower subscription revenue forecast led to a stock decline.

VF Corp Exceeds Q3 Expectations on Strong Brand Performance

• Q3 EPS was $0.43, with revenue at $2.8B (+2% YoY), driven by strong sales in Vans, North Face, and Timberland.

Nasdaq Surges on Fintech-Driven Q4 Earnings Beat

• Q4 profit exceeded expectations due to a 29% increase in fintech and index revenue, boosting share prices.

Meta Delays Q4 Earnings Release, Breaking 22-Quarter Streak

• Investors anxiously awaited Meta’s report, which was expected to show $6.76 EPS on $47B sales but was unusually delayed.

Tesla Q4 Focus: Cybertruck, Crypto, and Federal EV Policies

• Investors eyed Tesla’s outlook beyond recent stock gains, with focus areas including Cybertruck sales, crypto investments, and AI-driven robotics.

Meta's AI Strategy in Focus as Earnings Near

• DeepSeek's AI success has highlighted the growing role of AI in Meta’s strategy ahead of its Q4 earnings release.

Corning Beats Q4 Estimates, Shares Rise on Strong Outlook

• Q4 adjusted EPS hit $0.57, revenue reached $3.87B, and core operating margin improved, leading to bullish Q1 2025 guidance.

🖥️ Technology Events

OpenAI Accuses DeepSeek of Unauthorized AI Model Use

• OpenAI claims DeepSeek improperly used its models to train a competing chatbot, prompting a Microsoft security probe.
• The controversy raises concerns about AI intellectual property and cybersecurity risks.

Alibaba's New AI Model Challenges Industry Leaders

• Alibaba unveiled Qwen2.5-Max, claiming it outperforms ChatGPT and Meta’s AI models, driving a 3.7% stock increase.

Italian App Stores Remove DeepSeek, Impacting Tech Stocks

• Apple and Google dropped DeepSeek from their app stores in Italy, affecting AI-related stocks like NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL.

Waymo Expands Autonomous Vehicle Testing to 10 U.S. Cities

• Waymo will expand self-driving car tests in Las Vegas and San Diego in 2025, signaling aggressive growth in the AV market.

NVIDIA Balances US Collaboration with Independent AI Strategy

• NVIDIA is open to working with the U.S. government while maintaining an independent AI development approach.

DeepSeek AI Fails News Accuracy Test

• A NewsGuard audit ranked DeepSeek’s chatbot 10th out of 11, with only 17% accuracy, lagging behind Western rivals.

OpenAI’s Sam Altman Plans India Visit for Potential Tech Partnerships

• Sam Altman may explore AI collaborations in India, possibly strengthening Microsoft's AI expansion in the region.

Google Launches Meridian: AI-Powered Marketing Budget Tool

• Google's new Meridian tool uses Bayesian causal inference to optimize marketing budgets, improving ad-spending strategies.

🌍 Macro Events

Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled patience on rate cuts, emphasizing the need for further inflation progress despite pressure from Trump for immediate reductions.
• The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, citing solid economic growth but persistent inflation concerns.
• Markets are now anticipating a rate cut in June, adjusting expectations based on Fed statements.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to 3% Amid Trade War Fears

• The BoC reduced its key rate by 25 basis points, citing risks from potential U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty.
• The central bank also ended quantitative tightening, with analysts predicting further cuts if trade tensions escalate.

Global Interest Rate Movements

• Sweden’s Riksbank cut its policy rate to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations.
• Brazil’s central bank surprised markets with a 100 basis point hike to 13.25% to combat inflation.

Trump Criticizes Fed, Pushes for Economic Policy Shifts

• Trump accused the Fed of focusing too much on social issues and climate policies, blaming them for inflation.
• He froze $1.7B in foreign payments, ensuring domestic programs like Social Security and Medicaid remained unaffected.
• Commerce Secretary nominee Lutnick proposed higher China tariffs, AI restrictions, and leveraging allies in a Senate hearing, signaling an aggressive U.S. trade stance.

U.S. Trade and Economic Trends

• The U.S. trade deficit widened to $122.11B, exceeding forecasts, while retail and wholesale inventory levels shifted.
• German exports are expected to decline 0.3% in 2025, with the government cutting growth forecasts for 2024 due to trade tensions and competitiveness issues.

Powell Addresses AI, Crypto, and Economic Resilience

• Powell stated banks can serve crypto customers but stressed the need for stronger regulations.
• He acknowledged AI’s stock market impact but reaffirmed that the Fed’s focus remains on macroeconomic stability rather than specific tech trends.
• Powell expressed optimism on inflation progress, but reiterated that the Fed would not rush into policy changes.

🏥 Healthcare Events

RFK Jr. Defends Vaccine Stance in HHS Secretary Hearing

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nominated by Trump for HHS Secretary, faced Senate scrutiny over his vaccine views, claiming to be "pro-safety" rather than anti-vaccine.

Biotech Firms Prepare for Guggenheim Conference as Novo Nordisk Caps Insulin Prices

• Companies like Verastem, Apogee, Altimmune, and Verve Therapeutics are set to present at the Guggenheim Biotech Conference.
• Novo Nordisk announced insulin price caps, impacting healthcare stock dynamics.

Biotech Sector Sees Diverse Developments

• Beam Therapeutics received analyst reviews, while Inventiva published trial results and CARGO Therapeutics discontinued a study, reflecting varied biotech sector activity.

Biotech Breakthroughs in Vaccine and Disease Research

• Ocean Biomedical received NIH funding for malaria vaccine research, and 60 Degrees Pharmaceuticals gained approval for a babesiosis study.
• PacBio's technology enabled a multiomic study published in Nature Genetics, advancing research capabilities.

🌐 Geopolitics Events

White House Rescinds Federal Funding Freeze

• The Trump administration lifted a controversial freeze on federal grants and loans, causing confusion over ongoing fiscal policies.

UK Approves Third Runway at Heathrow Airport

• The UK government backed a third runway at Heathrow, expected to create over 100,000 jobs and boost economic growth while aligning with climate goals.

Trump Administration's Global Policy Moves

• Trump's nominee Lutnick proposed strict China tariffs and AI restrictions, indicating a tougher trade stance.
• Plans to set up a migrant facility at Guantanamo Bay and tighter Nvidia chip sales restrictions to China were discussed, reflecting a more aggressive foreign policy.

Trump Signs Executive Orders Targeting Antisemitism and Promoting School Choice

• Trump issued orders to combat antisemitism and enhance school choice, including visa cancellations for Hamas supporters and funding shifts towards school choice programs.

🚀 Crypto Events

Powell Supports Banks Serving Crypto but Calls for Stronger Regulations

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that U.S. banks can serve crypto customers but must meet higher risk management standards.
• He emphasized the need for a stronger regulatory framework while clarifying that the Fed oversees banks, not cryptocurrencies directly.

Czech Central Bank Governor Proposes Major Bitcoin Investment

• Governor Ales Michl suggested investing 5% of the Czech Republic’s $146B reserves into Bitcoin, signaling a potential shift in national crypto policy.

D.E. Shaw Acquires Stake in Riot Platforms, May Push for Changes

• Hedge fund D.E. Shaw took a stake in Riot Platforms, becoming its second activist shareholder and raising speculation about strategic shifts in the mining firm.

Coinbase Expands Advisory Council with Political Heavyweights

• Coinbase added key figures, including Trump's co-campaign manager, former Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and ex-NY Fed president William Dudley, to influence crypto policy amid industry growth.

Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Fed Holds Rates Steady

• Bitcoin’s price dropped $1,000 following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates, raising concerns about market volatility.

Texas and Illinois Push for Bitcoin Reserves

• Lawmakers in Texas and Illinois proposed bills to establish Bitcoin reserves, signaling increased state-level adoption of cryptocurrency.

Cardano's Plomin Hard Fork Enhances Decentralized Governance

• Cardano’s latest Plomin hard fork introduces on-chain voting, empowering ADA holders with more control over governance decisions.

🏢 Corporate Actions Events

Frontier Airlines Revives Spirit Airlines Merger Bid

• Frontier Airlines submitted a new merger proposal for bankrupt Spirit Airlines, offering a mix of debt and stock, as budget airlines face financial struggles.

⛽ Oil and Gas Events

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Surge, Breaking 10-Week Decline

• Crude stockpiles increased by 3.463M barrels, surpassing expectations and signaling a shift in oil market dynamics.

Ukraine Escalates Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Facilities

• Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil and missile storage sites, causing fires and oil leaks, marking another major attack in less than a week.

Oil Prices Dip as U.S. Inventories Rise, Trump Pressures OPEC+

• Oil prices fell due to rising U.S. crude stockpiles and higher Libyan output.
• Trump is pressuring OPEC+ to lower prices, possibly influencing future production cuts.

European Gas Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns

• European natural gas prices spiked due to low inventories and supply disruptions, impacting global energy markets.
• U.S. oil and gas M&A activity reached $105B in 2024, and gasoline futures indicate possible price hikes.

🏡 Real Estate Events

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Rates Hold Steady

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 2% week-over-week as the 30-year mortgage rate remained at 7.02%.
• The Mortgage Market Index dropped to 220.0, while the Purchase Index declined to 162.4, signaling continued weakness in housing demand.

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