Earnings Season Insights Tech Sector Highlights: •ORCL (Thu): Consensus $1.42 EPS on $15.3B rev, cloud/AI growth key; beat reinforces enterprise shift. •ADBE (Thu): $4.64 EPS est., creative/cloud subs scrutinized post-AI integrations. •AVGO (Thu): $1.41 EPS on $9.3B, AI semis demand critical amid supply chain noise.Signal: Strong guides extend tech rally; misses trigger semis/software rotation. Consumer Discretionary Sector Challenges: •CPB (Tue): $1.05 EPS est., staples resilience vs. pricing power erosion. •GME (Wed): Volatile meme history; focus on cash burn, holiday sales. •CHWY (Wed): $0.22 EPS, pet spending amid consumer caution.Signal: Weak holiday cues pressure retail; outperformance needs cost control proof.
Key Takeaways: FOMC Dec 9-10 targets 25bps cut (markets 85% prob per CME FedWatch), reflecting labor softening and PCE cooling, though hawk-dove split widens (Morgan Stanley/JPM now dovish). Signal: Cut lifts REITs/small caps (KRE rebound potential); pause re-prices growth lower. Implications for Traders: Dot plot may signal 2-3 more 2026 cuts to 3%; Powell presser key for terminal rate clues. Strategy: Position rate-sensitives pre-meeting, hedge via options on surprises. Inflation Data Release Latest Month-over-Month Metrics: Dallas Fed PCE proxy 2.8% (cooling), factory orders mixed; no major prints next week but FOMC integrates recent CPI/PCE (2.4% YoY core). Signal: Sustained disinflation backs cuts without wage reacceleration fears.
Geopolitical Events Geopolitical tensions continue to impact markets: META’s Limitless AI wearable buy advances hardware AI; Embraer/Eve-Beta $1B eVTOL motor pact validates urban air mobility. Offsets: House probes AAPL/GOOGL on ICE-tracking apps; film lobby vs. Netflix-WBD monopoly risks. Signal: Innovation tailwinds vs. Big Tech/media regulation drag. Sector Rotation
Sectors gaining traction: •Tech/AI: META/ORCL/AVGO momentum. •Industrials: eVTOL (Beta/Eve). •Staples/Consumer: COST resilience proxy.Underperformers: Bonds (ZB), crypto (BTC/GBTC/MIAN), regionals (KRE), gaming (BJK), shipping (SHLD), global (MSCI), vol (VIX/VVIX/SKEW).Trading Strategies: Buy leader dips above ~688 doji support; short laggard breaks. Premarket: Tactical KRE/crypto fades.
Cryptocurrency Movements Bitcoin: Probes 91,000 resistance (prior rejection); GBTC outflows/MIAN weakness cap upside, 85k support key. Signal: FOMC cut catalyst or equity risk-off breakdown.Ethereum: 3,100 pivot; hold enables altcoin rotation, loss adds macro correlation downside. Economic Indicators Unemployment Claims: Recent 220k supports soft landing pre-FOMC.Retail Sales: Monitored for holiday; COST earnings gauges consumer durability amid CHWY/GME tests.
Technical Analysis
Key Chart Patterns: S&P/SPX doji at 688 resistance (attachment: prior fail here, overnight hold eyes breakout). Failure risks 670s fade. •MFI >50: Buying inflows bullish bias. •DMI: +DI > -DI, ADX>25 confirms uptrend. •DMA: Price above signals momentum continuity.
