Friday, March 26, 2021

Popular opinion: it is foolish to expect something to happen because of prior events.

One of the big mirages a big chunk of this sub has is basing their intuition on prior events, even if the event has been repeated in history with clear results several times.

We knew of the crypto bubbles of 2013 and 2017. And here we are, in a bull market like what happened at those times. We see lots of bullish news, such as institutional adoptions, whale movement, blockchain upgrades. This is way different than 2017 where there was more controversy and not as much adoptions as today.

I agree that it is a pretty accurate way to predict the price movement can happen. I've seen overlaps of the 2013 and 2017 price charts and they look pretty close.

But anything can happen. When Elon Musk announced his purchase of bitcoin, the price shot over 4k for bitcoin in 1 day, and it was completely out of the blue.

I just saw several posts on the top page about Bitcoin options expiring and how it can be correlated to our current dip. It's easy to put your full trust into convincing arguments for the price action. I would advise you have some skepticism no matter what.

Exercise caution by setting limit orders, an exit plan, and DCA both in and out.


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