Dear fellow Bitcoiners,
I consider myself a long-term investor for all the technical, idealistic & financial reasons that many of you are probably sharing as well. But I worry about too much enthusiasm around the future potential price appreciation nowadays. I’d like to discuss one contextual, temporary but none the less historic and massive event that will happen soon and that could put some downward pressure on the spot price.
For those of you who’ve been in this long enough, MtGox Exchange closed transactions 25th feb 2014 following a massive hack and hundreds of thousands of bitcoins lost and has since been followed by a 8 years legal development aiming at returning former customers what could be « saved » (apparently 200k BTC). At the time of the hack, a BTC was around 550USD/coin. Those former customers are now looking at <100x gains.
In October 2021 this rehabilitation plan was approved and the next steps in November will be the restitution of those bitcoins.
Now, unlike what some may think, the spot price isn’t defined by the market capitalization, but by the depth of the order book and the number of available coins on exchanges. We can see that a relatively low difference in supply (200k BTC delta between July 20th and now on exchanges) can lead to a huge spot price difference whether appreciation or depreciation (30kUSD/BTC to 60kUSD/BTC).
Now, I feel like if even half (100k BTC) of those MtGox bitcoins are sold by the former customers to secure profits we could see a pretty heavy pressure on price at some point.
I wonder how you folks feel about that and if this makes any sense for you or if I missed something important that would invalidate my take on this situation.
In any case, that is no financial advice, and remember not to ever invest more than what you’ll willing to lose.
Cheers & HODL FTW.
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