tl;dr: based on 2013's cycle, we could go up, sideways, or down
In 2013, Bitcoin made two parabolic moves. The first peak occurred between on May and the second peak occurred on November. For this reason, 2013 is often compared to the 2021 cycle, which arguably peaked ahead of schedule. Here's what you need to know about the technical comparisons between 2013 and 2021:
- In this cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $64.8K ATH on April, before receding into a short-term bear market hitting $29K lows.
- The first peak suffered a ~55% drop in 2021 compared to 2013's ~80% drop from $266 to $50. Volatility goes both ways though, so a 2013 parabolic move up is unlikely.
- Both cycles, bottomed 80 to 100 days after the first peak. The 2021 cycle bottomed at a later time.
- You also have theories such as Lengthening Cycles that would imply that the market moves of large markets take a longer time to materialize. So it would be fair to assume a 2021 bull run will last longer; but also start later.
- This cycle was already 'slightly ahead of schedule,' when Bitcoin actually retested ATH and went in price discovery mode in the 3rd week of October.
Bitcoin historical price measured from the first peaks in 2013 (yellow) and 2021 (green)
What does this all mean?
Nothing much really. Although 2013 and 2021 have been eerily similar in market patterns, this isn't enough evidence to assume that this cycle will continue to mimic 2013. That said, will all the hype around November and December; events such as the Bitcoin's first upgrade in over four years, Taproot; and potential headlines surrounding crypto and the Infrastructure Bill (remember, despite the Bill being handicapping crypto development, it was still the catalyst for cryptos pump in August).
In any case, i would be extremely interesting if you continued following 2013's cycle and went parabolic by the EOY. As always, take this information with a pinch of salt.
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