Back in September, I made quite a bit of posts stating that Bitcoin will go on a run in October/November when Bitcoin was at around 42K or so. And I also predicted that in November/December, Bitcoin will probably get to 100K, prompting an altseason that would culminate this season. Now, I am having second thoughts and might think that we are near the end. Couple of reasons.
- For there to be a bull run, Bitcoin has to go on a massive run first. It would be akin to what we saw when Bitcoin went from 40 to 67K with most of the alts bleeding in SATs. However, this Bitcoin run has stalled (which in itself is not a warning sign) and alts have quickly recovered (too fast , imo, which is a warning sign) with Bitcoin dominance still at low 40 percent. Contrary to what your portfolio might tell you, alts recovering this fast in midst of what is supposed to be a bull run is not necessarily bullish long-term.
- I think what is going on is that the retail investors (people like you and I) do not have much appetite for Bitcoin. In the previous runs, it was the retailers that FOMOed in late in the game and their predicted entrance allowed the whales to pump up the market so that the retailers would be holding the bags at the top. However, I think the analysis is that retailers are not FOMOing into Bitcoin so they will not be holding the bags if Bitcoin goes to 100K or so. It is the (a) seemingly high price tag of Bitcoin and (b) expected more gains from alts that are leading to retail investors away from Bitcoin. And this lack of enthusiasm probably means that the whales will not be "eager" to continue this run by buying in at this 60-90K range. I mean, who will be holding the bags if they are buying high?
- It is becoming more of a common knowledge that there is the following sequence of events: (1) Bitcoin goes on a solo run (2) Bitcoin stalls (3) altseason (4) bear market. It is almost like a formula and this is what happened in 2017 as well as 2020/2021 May. Because this information is so common, it won't be easy this time around. I mean we have a full blown altseason, a lot of the retailers manage to sell near the top, and they aren't bag holding. How likely is this? I think because this "formula" is so pervasive, the rules of the games are changing. Remember, when a cycle is over, it is always the retailers (people like you and I) that are left holding the bags. And if the "formula" is so obvious to everyone, then these sequence of events will not happen.
This is not to say that there won't be a run in November/December. It is possible that in the next couple of months, Bitcoin goes to 100-120K, there is an altseason, a lot of people on the Cryptocurrency reddit forum sell right at the top after the altseason, and whales/miners are left holding the bags. It is possible, but how likely is this?
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