I can’t believe I only found this sub last week after years on Reddit. I’ve got a story. I’ve only mentioned it in passing IRL because I don’t want to be a reverse crypto bro, but I kinda need to get this off my chest because I willingly went on the world’s sketchiest rollercoaster ride. If I keep yelling WTF in the forest with no ears to hear, does it do anything for me? No, it doesn’t. I know for a fact now. I’m not going to name any names because I don’t want to inexplicably endorse anything crypto-related, which defeats my entire purpose here.
After cryptocurrency crashed this year, my first reaction was, “Nice.” As I was reading the news, I was thinking about how crypto just won’t die, and I slowly came to a realization: the risk-reward ratio of gambling on crypto was outright acceptable to me. And, no, I wasn’t in a fever dream. Earlier this year, a series of events landed me in a precarious situation in life, but let’s not dive into irrelevant details.
I’ve been loosely following crypto from the get-go. I’ve held the same belief as many of you – worthless Beanie Babies being speculated in scams – and I still do. However, detestation doesn’t change calculus. I never thought I’d ever touch crypto in my life. After weeks of homework, I ended up dipping my toe in the water, and got the hell out of there. I’ve always known crypto is sketchy, but I didn’t realize it’s that sketchy.
I pondered for days. Every part of my brain, except the logical part, was telling me to run away from this idea, yet the logical part was telling me to gamble on crypto. Worst opposite day ever. Eventually, I took the patented fuck-it approach, decided it was a go, and started off with a plan.
Step 1 was to choose a coin. The obvious choice would be Bitcoin since it’s the coin, but the wealth distribution means the price is easily manipulable, and I decided to find a “less rigged” alternative. The criteria for “less rigged” were simple: a more even distribution, enough liquidity, and not an (outright) scam. At the time, I didn’t realize I sent myself on a wild goose chase. I followed the mystical beast straight to a burnt down kettle factory, where the goose told me I don’t know how idioms work. Facing a plethora of choices ranging from horrible to god-no, I took the fuck-it approach again, made an intuitive choice and moved on.
Step 2 was to choose an exchange. “This shouldn’t be hard, right?” Said the little idiot, having learned zero lessons from Step 1. I’ve heard of stories about sketchy dealings and poor security, but I was floored when I found out some of the major exchanges have been (and still are) trading non-existent paper coins and manipulating the market. How they’ve managed to operate with trillions of assets while being blatantly illegal is… beyond me. After hours of frustrating research, my first choice, the safest-doesn’t-mean-safe option, wasn't available to me because of regulations. Oh the red flags.
Speaking of red flags, it was flag city over there, so I took a step back and reevaluate. I never factored in the risk of an exit scam from an exchange, nor the other million things I just discovered. I realized I needed to be OK with the worst case scenario - losing everything I put in. Meanwhile, it also doesn’t make sense for me to go through with it if the principal isn’t large enough to make a dent. In retrospect, I should be out after saying “fuck it©” three times in a row, but I kept going.
I’ve dealt with stocks before and I know the basics, but I’ve never actively day traded so I had a few things to learn. Similarly, I’ve been following news on crypto, but I didn’t know anything specific when it came to trading. That’s where the Internet shines, not with good advice, but with crazy people. HODL is the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard when it comes to “investing.” Then it quickly dawned on me: encouraging people to lose money… makes sense? There’s no low to buy or high to sell if no one else buys high and HODL till the point that they had to sell.
Then I read another post, a (surprisingly well-written) wall of nonsense that started off saying crypto crashed because “they” are scared. Even though “they” seemed to be the main antagonist throughout the magnum opus, it was never specified who “they” were, and I suppose this is where the birth of the reader comes into play. The literary feedback in the comment section was overwhelmingly positive, praising the “immaculate analysis” of someone who insisted crypto isn’t taxable, because, you know, reasons.
It took me weeks to get ready, and trading was the least interesting part of the story. I stared at a chart for hours on end, which couldn’t be healthy. When the market was volatile, so was my anxiety. A price alert went off an my phone at 1 AM, and I was up until 3 AM staring at the chart all over again. I found it difficult to gamble. I’ve never gambled before probably for a reason. I couldn’t stop being overly cautious, which wasn’t conceptually compatible with crypto.
About four weeks in, I noticed something in the order book – the price was being pumped, and I was astound at how transparent it was. When the spread was high, tiny sell orders popped up and were quickly bought, so the price went up with very little cost. I also witnessed buy orders so large that existing liquidity couldn’t even fill a quarter of it, so they basically set the price floor.
It was another time to check whether I was crazy. I wasn’t. It was a consistent pattern and I wasn’t the only one who noticed it. Sometimes the candlestick looked like a straight line because the only volume came from price pumping. I watched the entire cycle from pump to dump, to a a brand new cycle all over again. I took another look before posting this, and it’s still happening.
I don’t know why I hadn’t noticed it before. Maybe I needed some time to familiarize myself first. Maybe people behind it waited till the market stabilized. Anyways, I was done. The market is being rigged by the player on the other side of the table with deep pockets and enormous resources. I can’t compete with that. I can’t survive that. I’ve always known crypto is sketchy, but I didn’t realize it’s that sketchy. I counted my blessings, and I got the hell out of there.
As someone who has never gambled before, I gotta admit gambling is dangerously fun. The adrenaline rush from the insane ROI gave me a glimpse into gambling addiction, but one peek is more than enough for me. In the beginning, I set up strict rules for myself, one of which being not falling for the sunk cost fallacy. But the initial gains made me hesitate: I can’t predict the future. What ifs, right?
Now I see how laughable that idea was. The truth is I got lucky. Really, really lucky. After doing all of my homework, I entered the market right when it tanked to the very bottom (of the cycle), so it wasn’t easy for me to buy high sell low. If there is a hypothetical next time, I won’t be this lucky.
In retrospect, I went way above my risk tolerance. I thought I knew what I was dealing with, but I didn’t have the full picture, and I still don’t. I’ve been calling crypto gambling, but it’s a lot worse. Casinos are regulated and you can reasonably expect the house not to cheat, but that’s not the case with crypto. Unlike slot machines, crypto looks like stock markets on the surface. It gives you an illusion that you’re in control, and it’s a matter of skills. It might be technically true in the most literal sense. Do skills matter when you’re at the mercy of bots, or worse, scammers?
This is the first time in my life where I can call something a “learning experience” without it going absolutely wrong, but only a little wrong. At this point, I don’t think crypto will die, at least not in the foreseeable future. There’s too much money involved and it’s too profitable to die. Crypto won't die until “they” want it to, but “they” won't. Why do “they” want to stop making money?
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