In late 2018 Bitcoin finally bottomed from it's 2017 peak of $20k, at around $3k USD. During this time, Bitcoin "died" a few dozen times (again) and much to the dismay of the bearish folks, BTC had a nice run up to almost $14k, around a 4.5x multiplier, before dropping down and bottoming around $6400 and having a bounce back to $10.5k followed by the "Covid crash" in March with Bitcoin almost touching the previous bear market bottom of $3k again. By that time, it was right around the 2020 Bitcoin halving event, and as luck would have it, amidst a global pandemic, BTC and the rest of the crypto market continued their 4 year cycle and thus began a new bull run through 2020-21.
Now, in late 2022 we bottomed around $15k and since then had a nice rally a little over 2x (multipliers do seem to get smaller over the cycles, especially in bull runs) and a near 2 month crabbing before this significant drop just happened. Whether it be on the Evergrande news, SpaceX selling their BTC, The Grayscale ETF still not coming to fruition, or a mix of all of them, it seems to be around the time that we could be ready to see a multi-month down trend. Perhaps one that leads us into the 2024 halving? If so, where do we bottom out, perhaps in the $19-21k range?
What do you think? Are we about to head downwards for the next 4-8 months, or will we bounce and recover back into crab mode, or maybe even another bullish leg up?
I find it interesting that (so far) no matter what's going on in the world, BTC (and the entire market on its back) continue in these semi-predictable 4 year cycles. That said, the entire global economy seems to be in a fickle state, a major economic collapse could certainly be a catalyst to break this cycle. Do you believe we have a 2024-25 bull run (barring no Great Depression / collapse) and if so, how many more cycles do we realistically expect before the trend breaks?
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