The current bitcoin growth is due to the fact that market participants are "pricing" the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, as they are expecting an increase in demand for BTC from companies awaiting SEC approval of their crypto funds.
At the same time the market overestimates the amount of liquidity that will come to BTC after spot ETFs are approved. According to my estimate, it will be $100-120 billion in the first year, which will give about 20% growth in capitalization. In other words, from the current price of $34k, it will grow to $40k, which is significantly below the historical highs.
I assume that the approval of spot ETFs is more likely to be a moment for profit taking, formed by buying in anticipation of the launch of crypto funds. There is no doubt that spot ETFs will bring new liquidity to the market, but this process will take time, and we need to start by seeing what kind of demand there will be for these instruments.
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs is definitely a new step for the market and for an asset that is still unregulated.
This event will form a new element of the crypto industry infrastructure and will increase the depth of the market due to new participants and new liquidity, but it will take time, at least a few years, during which the rate of BTC itself may rise or fall, because in addition to ETFs, BTC will be affected by a large number of other fundamental factors.
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