Lately, we’ve seen the S&P 500 (SPX) break through key resistance levels, including the H4 100 MA, but Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to follow suit. This divergence is concerning, as BTC is still stuck between major resistance and support zones, with multiple moving averages coming into play:
- H1 100 MA, H1 200 EMA, H1 300 MA are all clustered around 56.8k.
- The H4 100 MA sits at 57.5k, while the H4 13 EMA is at 57.6k.
- Major resistance is found at the H4 200 EMA (58.7k).
Key Levels to Watch:
- The range of 56.8-57.6k needs to hold to prevent a more extended consolidation or a harsh downtrend rejection, especially if SPX starts pulling back.
- On the flip side, breaking through 58.5-59.0k could give BTC the momentum to fill the gap up to the D1 100 MA.
In the meantime, the market is likely to chop in this range, with volatility expected once we see more data, particularly from the FOMC next week. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report was largely a non-event, so all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting for the next major move.
Ethereum (ETH) Outlook:
ETH is currently compressing on the H1 timeframe, mirroring BTC's lack of clear direction. Until BTC makes a decisive move, ETH is expected to follow a similar choppy path.
BTC continues to grind against the 58.2k resistance, and there’s still potential for a spike to 60-62k. However, this could turn into a bull trap, leading to a rollover and new lows, catching traders off guard.
Charts to Watch:
Stay cautious, as these levels could determine the next big move.
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