I’m excited — genuinely excited — to release the very first retrospective analysis!
This isn’t just a look back at the Bitcoin price action of July 13–20, 2025.
It’s something I’ve wanted to do for a long time:
to hold my own created and forged system up to the light, to compare it against the world’s leading forecasts,
and to ask — without ego, without excuses — where it stood, where it slipped, and where it will sharpen.
This retrospective is not just a review;
it’s the birth of an audit culture inside Bitform.
We’re not here to predict magic numbers.
We’re here to map tensions, trace fractures, weigh probabilities — and learn, live, and publicly.
What follows is a full-spectrum analysis:
- how Bitform mapped the July compression zone,
- why it underweighted the bull breakout,
- and how it stacks up against models like Glassnode, Cointelegraph, Bloomberg, and others.
This is the start of something new:
not just forecasting — but structural decoding that holds itself accountable.
Global Bitcoin Forecast Review: July 13–20,2025
The week of July 13–20 was not just a market event — it was a structural ignition.
Crypto Week in the U.S. passed landmark legislation; institutional ETF flows hit records; Bitcoin surged past $123,000 before retracing.
Bitform’s forecast called the compression zone and breakout scenario perfectly, but was too conservative in weighting the probability of a bull surge.
This article delivers a full retrospective — and ranks Bitform alongside the world’s top forecasting models.
🧩 What Bitform Got Right
✅ Identified the $117k–$118k compression zone
✅ Mapped the bull case scenario: if the GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC bills passed, institutional momentum would break BTC to ~$122k–124k
✅ Recognized ETF inflows as an amplifier
✅ Flagged derivative tension via rising open interest
✅ Embedded bias checks and probabilistic honesty in the forecast
⚠ Where Bitform Underweighted
❌ Probability: Bull case was given 25–30%, when converging signals mid-week (legislation + ETF + derivatives) justified a 50%+ reweighting
❌ Leverage scale: Open interest surged ~16%; funding rates spiked to ~0.0189% — bigger than forecasted
❌ Profit-taking magnitude: Miner and whale sell-offs were stronger than modeled
Truth Protocol – Blindspot Analysis
Strengths:
- Multi-layer architecture (on-chain, derivatives, macro, psychology)
- Clear scenario maps with conditional triggers
- Bias disclaimer and probabilistic humility embedded
Weaknesses:
- No live adjustment as ETF flows + legislation + leverage over-converged
- Underweighted momentum amplification loops (ETF → spot → derivatives → sentiment)
- Conservative psychological modeling (ignored conviction-layer resilience)
Strategic Evolution
Dynamic Reweighting Module
→ Real-time scenario probability recalibration when multiple super-signals align
Amplification Engine
→ Quantitative modeling of how spot, derivatives, ETF, and sentiment feedback loops magnify moves
Ignition Flag System
→ Hard-encoded triggers for binary catalysts like regulatory or macro breakthroughs
Compared to Global Forecasts:
Reflection
The July 13–20 forecast was not a “miss” —
it was a near-perfect map with conservative probability assignment.
Where others cheered price, Bitform mapped pressure points.
Where others screamed targets, Bitform warned of fractures.
Bitform stands where price, pressure, and perception meet.
Its forecasts are not crystal balls — they are structural compasses.
And every audit sharpens that compass further.
Its edge? Not perfection. Radical reflexivity.
I Do this alone with my own system and my neurodivergent mind.
I don´t now if I can share my link here to my substack account Bitform. I was never active on reddit. If yes. Tell me =)
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