Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Crypto Ecosystem Growth Guide

The Crypto Ecosystem Growth guide is your marketing bible – a comprehensive playbook packed with strategies, insights, and battle-tested tactics essential for driving explosive growth of crypto ecosystems. Whether you're building an on-chain project, launching a token, or scaling your crypto community, this resource will equip you with the tools needed to cut through the noise and create lasting impact.

By the time you turn the last page, you’ll have a clear, actionable roadmap for leveraging three core pillars of crypto growth, along with several potent 'power-ups'  to drive the growth of the crypto ecosystem you’ve been tirelessly building, including: 

  • Social Media Marketing
  • Influencer Marketing 
  • Public Relations
  • Localized hubs
  • Crypto events
  • AI Marketing tools 

CHAPTER 1: Why Building Isn't Enough 

For years, you've been deep in the trenches tirelessly crafting something truly extraordinary in the Web3 space. And you haven’t done it alone. You have managed to put together a strong team, consisting of:

  • Developers meticulously piecing together the technology.
  • Entrepreneurs brainstorming and bringing innovative ideas to life.
  • Investors providing essential financial backing.
  • Content Creators narrating your journey every step of the way.

Each individual has been instrumental in laying a solid foundation for your crypto ecosystem. But despite all this effort, something crucial has been overlooked. Something that has the power to determine whether your project soars or fades into nothingess.

  1. Your Project Demands Attention

https://preview.redd.it/30ovju1ltxig1.png?width=1544&format=png&auto=webp&s=4529cc50b7736d7653386a3669ddf0f71dc0e406

You've reached a crossroads. Your product is built. The infrastructure is in place. The vision is no longer just an idea; it’s tangible, functional, and ready for the world.

But ask yourself this: If no one knows about it, does it even exist?

Too many Web3 founders get caught in an endless loop of refining, tweaking, and adding “just one more feature.” There’s always something more to improve. You tell yourself that once the product is perfect, the users will come.

But they won’t. Not unless you actively bring them in. Not unless you make them see why your ecosystem matters.

The reality is, Web3 moves fast. One moment, the space is buzzing with excitement. Next, it’s a bear market, and even the most promising projects struggle for attention. If you wait too long, if you keep telling yourself that “the product isn’t quite ready yet,” you risk launching into silence.

  1. It Starts With Your Own Team

Before you even think about influencers, media coverage, or community marketing, your own team must be the first to talk about your project.

Your developers, your founders, your marketers, every single person who has helped bring this vision to life should be your loudest champions. If the people closest to your project aren’t actively talking about it, why should anyone else care?

Your team needs to be:

  • Posting updates and insights on social media
  • Engaging in industry conversations on platforms like Twitter
  • Writing articles, blog posts, and thought leadership pieces that position your project as a must-watch innovation in the space

Every major Web3 success story starts with a core group of believers who are relentless in spreading the word. That starts with you and your team.

  1. From Building to Promoting

The projects that dominate in Web3 aren’t just the most technically advanced or the most innovative. They’re the ones that command attention, spark conversations, and build movements.

Imagine what happens when your project is no longer just something you and your team believe in, but something the entire crypto community is talking about. When investors, developers, influencers, and users aren’t just aware of it, but are excited about it.

That moment doesn’t come from silently building in the background. It comes from stepping into the spotlight, from actively marketing, from positioning your project in a way that demands recognition.

The truth is, the best technology doesn’t always win. 

The best-marketed technology does.

CHAPTER 2: Crypto ecosystem growth

Since 2017, we’ve been in the trenches of crypto marketing, helping ecosystems grow from niche communities to full-fledged powerhouses. We’ve seen what works, what flops, and what gets people genuinely excited. And if there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s this: an ecosystem is only as strong as the projects thriving within it.

Success in Web3 isn’t about isolated wins,it’s about momentum. One great project doesn’t just succeed on its own; it brings in users, attracts developers, and creates a ripple effect that fuels the entire ecosystem. Every transaction, every interaction, every conversation adds to the network’s strength. It’s a flywheel effect: success breeds more success, adoption leads to more adoption, and suddenly, an ecosystem isn’t just surviving but booming.

The challenge is keeping that momentum balanced.

https://preview.redd.it/k76fdu1ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc5f230ee9a0ab0704e74631edf97799bbc6418c

The Biggest Challenge in Ecosystem Growth

After working with hundreds of Web3 projects, we’ve learned that building a thriving crypto ecosystem is a delicate dance. You need a mix of developers pushing the tech forward, investors willing to fuel new ideas, entrepreneurs creating fresh opportunities, community members ("degens") engaging, using, and hyping up the projects.

Still, the biggest mistake we see is one-dimensional marketing. 

Too many ecosystems hyper-focus on just one audience—developers, traders, or investors without speaking to all the key players. The most successful ecosystems don’t pick sides. They grow holistically, ensuring every stakeholder has a reason to participate.

We’ve worked with over 250 Web3 projects, and we’ve seen what it takes to scale an ecosystem. In the 2021 bull market, we helped Cosmos grow its market cap by tens of millions through strategic campaigns. We also ran one of the first major Cosmos airdrops, bringing in tens of thousands of new users overnight. 

Moreover, our campaigns for Polkadot and ICP reached millions, creating viral moments and high-impact media impressions that strengthened both communities.

But before we talk strategy, there’s one step every ecosystem needs to nail first: understanding where you stand today.

Assessing the Health of a Crypto Ecosystem

The foundation of any effective growth strategy starts with a deep understanding of the ecosystem’s current state. Before launching a campaign, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation, analyzing both the technology and the surrounding activity that determines whether an ecosystem has staying power.

Here’s what we look at:

  1. Active wallets per month: The number of unique wallet addresses that engage in transactions each month. 
  2. Developer activity: Contributions to GitHub, the number of MVPs submitted, and overall participation in protocol development. 
  3. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs): The transaction volume and asset diversity on decentralized exchanges.
  4. Launchpad effectiveness: How successfully the ecosystem brings new projects to market. Well-performing launchpads indicate a thriving pipeline of innovation.
  5. Memecoin presence: While often dismissed, memecoin activity can be a sign of cultural relevance and strong grassroots engagement.
  6. Community vibrancy: Measured through social media discussions, governance participation, and organic mentions in top crypto publication

By breaking down these metrics, we can pinpoint exactly what’s working, what needs improvement, and how to craft a marketing strategy that ensures not just growth, but balanced, sustainable expansion.

In the next chapters, we’ll break down the three core strategies that drive successful ecosystem marketing, exploring how to attract developers, engage communities, and position ecosystems for long-term success.

CHAPTER 3: Influencer marketing for ecosystem growth 

Influencer marketing is one of the most powerful tools in the Web3 space. The right influencers don’t just boost visibility, they build trust, drive engagement, and connect projects with highly targeted audiences. In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Why influencer marketing works in crypto
  • The different types of crypto influencers
  • A checklist for successful collaborations
  • A unique method to amplify results and maximize ROI
  • The best platforms for influencer marketing in the crypto space

Why Crypto Influencer Marketing Works

Crypto moves fast. Keeping up with trends, updates, and emerging projects takes time, time that most people don’t have. This is where influencers step in. They filter through the noise, break down complex topics, and make Web3 more accessible. Whether it’s market insights, project reviews, or deep-dive explainers, influencers play a crucial role in driving onchain adoption.

A strong influencer has spent years cultivating a loyal audience, making their endorsements far more impactful than traditional ads. Followers listen because they believe in the influencer’s expertise. That trust is what makes influencer marketing one of the most effective ways to promote a crypto project.

Yes, influencer marketing can be expensive. But the return on investment (ROI) makes it worth it. A recent survey by Astute Analytica found that 89% of marketers see influencer marketing as performing as well or better than other channels. In both bull and bear markets, influencer marketing remains one of the most reliable ways to reach an engaged audience. 

https://preview.redd.it/b5vtea5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=288d901dbf9a6feacc3373b0dbdd7b6b11e10b34

Key Benefits of Influencer Marketing in Crypto

  1. Greater reach and visibility

A single tweet, YouTube video, or newsletter mention from the right influencer can put a project in front of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of potential users.

  1. Trust, credibility, and authority

Influencers' reputation acts as a bridge between projects and potential users. A well-placed recommendation from a respected figure in the space can instantly boost a project’s credibility.

  1. Targeted traffic and conversions

A well-matched partnership means that every view, click, and engagement is from someone who’s already interested in the space. Instead of casting a wide net and hoping for conversions, influencer marketing delivers traffic that’s already primed to take action.

Types of crypto influencers

Not all influencers are the same. Some command massive audiences, while others focus on smaller, highly engaged communities. Each type serves a different purpose, and understanding their strengths helps in crafting a more effective influencer marketing strategy.

  1. Macro Influencers (100K – 1M+ Followers)

These influencers offer a strong mix of reach and credibility. Their content is often in-depth, educational, and backed by years of industry experience. They have high CPM (cost per thousand impressions) and are excellent for project awareness.

Here’s just some examples of macro influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓ 

https://preview.redd.it/4uopsh5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=baf5ec19bd9f18a9a4b011c940ca2abd8deb1b80

  1. Mid-Tier Influencers (50K – 500K Followers)

Mid-tier influencers deliver similar benefits to macro influencers but at a more affordable cost. They still have a strong presence and engaged following but offer a better balance of reach and budget. 

Some examples of mid-tier influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓ 

https://preview.redd.it/7noexn5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f0662239e43d40cd64788b9532bcd22be523b63

  1. Micro-influencers (10K – 50K Followers)

Crypto micro-influencers are people with a small but engaged following, often interested in more niche topics. Their content feels more personal, and their audiences tend to be deeply loyal, promoting an unmatched sense of community and trust.

Some examples of micro-influencers that we have been collaborating with ↓

https://preview.redd.it/6ng50j5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=950442bb53d35b5471d09a9402cb1b432087d57e

For the sake of full context, there are two more types of influencers: mega and nano

Mega influencers are a subcategory of influencers with a massive following and reach.  These are mainstream celebrities, artists, and high-profile figures (e.g., Snoop Dogg, Logan Paul). While they have huge reach, their engagement rates are often lower, and they’re not always the best fit for ecosystem-focused crypto growth.

Nano influencers have a small but active following of crypto fans. They have between 1k and 10k followers. They’re great for niche targeting but often lack the scale needed for broader ecosystem marketing.

For ecosystem growth, macro, mid-tier, and micro influencers are the best bets.

Influencer marketing checklist 

  1. Choose the right influencers

First and foremost, making sure that the influencer’s audience is interested in the promoted ecosystem is necessary.

  1. Define campaign objectives

If you do not define clear objectives, you will not be able to evaluate if you are progressing or what you are spending your budget on. 

  1. Detailed content briefs

Don't just inform influencers on the topic, but give them everything they possibly need to create engaging content that can be shared, inviting the community to get involved. 

  1. Include CTA and tracking mechanisms

Whether it’s visiting a site, joining an airdrop, or signing up for a whitelist, include clear CTAs. Use tracking links, promo codes, or affiliate systems to measure performance.

Lunar amplification method for ROI maximization 

Let us showcase to you the ‘Lunar amplification method,’ which is our unique approach to boosting our influencer marketing message's reach.  

Firstly, we team up with a high-profile influencer, someone with a large audience and a strong presence in the cryptocurrency community. This individual produces content that aligns with what we stand for and what we're trying to achieve. Their involvement ensures our campaign's message strikes a chord and spreads effectively throughout the community.

Then, in order to enhance our impact, we engage a carefully chosen group of mid-level influencers. These influencers may have fewer followers, but they are significant voices in their circles. They add their credibility to the narrative started by our lead influencer, expanding the reach in a natural, authentic way. Their input is more likely to be valued by their followers, leading to genuine conversations and deeper connections.

Here is a picture that visualizes the amplification method coined by Lunar Strategy ↓

https://preview.redd.it/9txxcz5ltxig1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e113a51762c1a5e8408bec9cdd2c7f0101ecdbb

Our work with Polkadot validates the success of the given approach that has shown to foster meaningful engagement and build lasting bonds within the ecosystem.

Ultimately, this method is designed not just to share a message but to spark a ripple effect, where influencers amplify each other, drawing in a wider audience and keeping them engaged long-term. It’s a strategic, network-driven approach designed to maximize ROI and build momentum.

At the same time, it’s still important to keep in mind the following fundamentals. 

  1. Set realistic goals

If you expect instant results, you’ll be disappointed. Influencer marketing works best as a long-term strategy, aligning with the project’s broader goals. Setting realistic expectations means assessing resources, reach, and campaign scalability.

  1. Adapt strategies

Adaptability is non-negotiable since agility in the campaigns improves expectations of success, as long as the content adapts to new trends and market changes. 

  1. Stand out in a changing market

Survival in Web3 means constant innovation. Projects that push boundaries, experiment with new formats, and capitalize on emerging trends are the ones that dominate.

  1. Invest in long-term relationships

One-off influencer campaigns can generate buzz, but sustained partnerships deliver consistent engagement and trust. The smartest move is to build a network of long-term ambassadors who champion your ecosystem over time.

There are two main options for choosing the best platforms for crypto influencer marketing. The first one is the one and only – X, formerly known as Twitter. It is unarguably the beating heart of the crypto community, making it a self-explanatory choice. 

The second one is YouTube. We found that collaborations with influencers on this platform paired with X ones work exceptionally well, especially given that the biggest YOUTUBE influencers started their personal brand on X first. 

It means that you can lock in pretty good bundles of content, which involve both written content on X and YT videos.  

CHAPTER 4: PR for ecosystem growth 

A strong PR strategy is more than just getting featured in the news and crafting a narrative that resonates, builds credibility, and drives real engagement. It  makes complex blockchain projects approachable, turning technical jargon into compelling stories that connect with the wider public.

In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Role of PR in crypto ecosystem growth
  • Creating successful PR release 
  • Types of PR campaigns

Why PR Matters in Crypto Ecosystem Growth

Crypto moves at breakneck speed. Projects rise and fall based on visibility, trust, and perception. PR acts as the bridge between technical innovation and mass adoption, translating blockchain breakthroughs into stories that capture attention.

The PR campaigns also serve exceptionally well to cover industry events and trends related to your project, make product, airdrop, and development hackathon announcements, just to name a few. 

Creating a successful PR release 

It all begins with building solid relationships with journalists, influencers, and media outlets for obtaining favorable media coverage and creating buzz about the initiative. Once that aspect is taken care of, you can start thinking about the following things.  

  1. Strategic storytelling & narratives in PR

The essence of effective crypto PR lies in the craft of storytelling. Identifying an angle that resonates and articulates the 'who', 'what', and 'when' in a way that captivates the audience. This storytelling is not just about catching the eye but also about ensuring that the message gets shared across the community, urging action and fostering a sense of belonging.

Some industry examples like "DeFi Summer on Solana" have demonstrated the power of a well-constructed story to onboard a broader community into an ecosystem. These narratives work especially well when paired with influencer collaborations, which we have already covered previously.

https://preview.redd.it/th4axt5ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5534efe1ee3327af80f4557bfe656787429e1c7

  1. Nail the Headline

Your headline is the make-or-break moment. In a space where news moves fast, it needs to grab attention instantly. Make it concise, intriguing, and clear about the value being presented.

  1. Key information upfront

Conveying key information in the opening paragraph ensures that your audience understands the essential message even if they read no further. This transparency builds trust and lays the foundation for deeper engagement with your ecosystem.

  1. Get straight to the point

Keeping your press release brief and to the point while ensuring that it carries newsworthy content is a balancing act. It's about delivering value without overwhelming the reader, providing just enough to pique interest and encourage further exploration of your ecosystem without hard-selling.

Summing up, it’s also essential to keep in mind that staying flexible and responsive to trends with your PR campaigns will ensure your ecosystem remains relevant and resonant. 

Types of PR campaigns

The debate between organic and sponsored content is a tale of two major strategies: organic and paid. Organic features are about credibility and cost-effectiveness, yet they require patience and perseverance. Building relationships and crafting pitches can be daunting, but the payoff in audience trust is priceless.

When it comes to sponsored content, even though it can get expensive, it offers immediate visibility and thought leadership positioning. The investment is not just monetary but also in creating content that strikes a chord and delivers on the promise of engagement.

Through our own experience, we found that keeping the balance between both types works the best in terms of results and trust levels of community members. 

CHAPTER 5: X marketing for ecosystem growth 

Crypto lives on X. It’s where narratives are built, where trends take off, and where projects either skyrocket or fade into nothingness. If you want your crypto ecosystem to thrive, you need a dominant presence on X with not just posting updates, but shaping conversations, creating viral moments, and converting lurkers into loyal community members.

In this chapter, we’ll cover:

  • Why X is the ultimate battleground for crypto ecosystems
  • How to set up your profile for maximum conversions
  • A content strategy that drives engagement
  • The key pillars of viral X content
  • Growth tactics to expand your reach

Why X Marketing is Essential for Crypto Ecosystems

Being the central hub for all things crypto,  a well-defined and comprehensive X marketing strategy will help boost the online presence and reach of the crypto ecosystem.

After Elon’s takeover, X doubled the number of monthly active users to more than 520 million. So, building a distinctive brand image and being active on this platform can enable you to convert these prospects into paying customers, especially given the recent Bitcoin ETF approval, with more people gaining interest in the crypto space.

Even though millions of people around the world are interested in joining the crypto movement, they cannot do it because there is still a big disconnect between crypto service providers and users. For many web3 brands, it has been a challenge to effectively reach their target audience to provide them with the services they’re looking for. 

But X helps effectively bridge this gap.

Optimizing Your X Profile for Conversions 

Think of your X profile as prime real estate in the crypto marketplace. Every visitor is a potential customer, and every detail on your profile is an opportunity to make an impression. To maximize conversions, focus on these four key areas:

  1. Banner

Your banner should inspire trust without overwhelming visitors. It's the billboard for the brand, so make it count. Elements to include:

  • A clear image of your product or service
  • Recognition badges like media features or endorsements
  • Logos of past clients or partners
  • A direct call to action (e.g., "Book a meeting")
  • A concise and memorable slogan
  1. Bio 

This is your brand's elevator pitch. In one brief sentence, you need to encapsulate what you do and spark curiosity, making profile visitors stick around, not scratch their heads and wander off.

  1. Pinned post

This post is the centerpiece of your X profile. To maximize its impact, it’s worth  including the following things in it:

  • Customer testimonials
  • Successful case studies
  • A direct call to action
  • Highlights of your best work
  • Links to valuable resources like development guides, whitepapers, etc
  1. Golden check

The gold checkmark signifies an official Verified Organization on X, showcasing you're a committed business investing at least 1k monthly on X for the badge. It elevates your brand's credibility and doubles your organic reach. Additionally, with it, you can affiliate others to your brand, be it sub-brands or active team members on X, which also have a 2x organic boost by the X algorithm. 

  1. Profile picture 

Keep it professional and on-brand. If it suits your brand's personality, add a dash of bright color to stand out in the X feed.

Here’s a great example of a conversion-optimized X profile ↓

https://preview.redd.it/poa4mv1ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=b586c2e730f89f3186a06d506884b9c6865faf65

This is a profile that doesn't just attract visitors – it turns them into followers, leads, and customers of the crypto ecosystem.

X content creation strategy

It goes without saying that capturing attention is as crucial as the innovation itself. X strategy should be designed to transform curiosity into a dedicated following and potential investment. Here’s a battle-tested approach to making it happen:

  1. Identify THE audience

Your content should speak directly to crypto enthusiasts, investors, and builders who resonate with your ecosystem’s vision. Understanding their pain points and aspirations ensures every post delivers value.

  1. Solve real problems

Next, we focus on the issues that our audience faces. Whether it's simplifying complex blockchain concepts or offering insights into market trends, our content aims to provide solutions that matter.

  1. Building trust

Establishing trust is non-negotiable. We craft our narrative to demonstrate reliability, expertise, and the unique advantages of our ecosystem, ensuring our audience feels confident in our offer.

  1. Keeping a healthy posting ratio

Our mantra is to 'give more than you ask.' By providing value threefold before making an ask, we keep our audience educated, engaged, and eager for more.

  1. Establishing diversified content pillars

This step is by far the most important, as it will be decisive in how great the overall content strategy is. 

Establishing X Content Pillars

In order to guarantee that your crypto ecosystem’s X page gets known in the space, the following content pillars should be established: 

  • Lead magnets

Crypto users are more likely to engage if they get something valuable in return. Web3 lead magnets like eBooks, webinars, or exclusive reports turn casual followers into email subscribers and future investors.

https://preview.redd.it/rnxez52ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=76f5be0b398177851ae428d251dda260823ef4d2

  • Case studies & deep dives

A strategy for attracting potential investors begins with addressing common questions and creating deep dives into the ecosystem's utilities as well as case studies. Think DEX walkthroughs, wallet comparisons, and protocol breakdowns.

  • Updates and news coverage

Consistently share updates – big or small – so that your community never feels out of the loop. Whether it's a new partnership or a rollout of a new feature – make it known to your audience. 

  • Engagement posts

AMAs, polls, memes, and questions are types of posts designed to get people talking, sharing their views, and feeling like they're part of the journey, which can’t be overlooked. 

  • Thought leadership posts

    Start conversations, don’t just join them. Offering unique insights into market trends and future industry shifts positions your ecosystem as a credible voice in the space.

X growth tactics

  1. X giveaways

Giveaways are a fast and effective way to boost followers and drive traffic. Offering stablecoins, native tokens, or exclusive perks can kickstart a campaign and if you have a smaller account, it might be a good idea to start the campaign with another larger partner.

  1. “Reply game” strategy

Being the reply guy is the strongest weapon you can utilize on X. Back in the summer of 2023, our team hit 4M+ impressions in just 7 days using this method.

https://preview.redd.it/ul5nj62ltxig1.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=3df31b6a3346fd08a3c20a88a97f777447917d3c

In a nutshell, being a ‘reply guy’ means strategically responding to posts within your niche, adding value, and sparking interest.

Here’s how to execute it: 

  • Create a list of profiles with high engagement that resonate with your brand.
  • Contribute meaningfully to the conversation by asking questions, providing insights, or sharing relevant experiences.
  • Be authentic, trying to initiate positive connections.
  • Dedicate at least 20-30 minutes daily to build your visibility.
  1. Mastering X algorithm

    Since X has its unique algorithm, it’s crucial to befriend it rather than go against the grain.  

Do’s:

  • Be a reply guy
  • Prioritize long-form content (threads/long-reads)
  • Video content to maximize retention rate per one piece of content
  • Engage with high reputation accounts to boost your reputation score
  • Focus on posting unique insights your audience can’t find elsewhere

Don’ts:

  • Using hashtags
  • Mention X competitors
  • Following too many people 
  • Publishing low-value engagement farming posts
  1. X Spaces

X Spaces is a key part of establishing credibility as a brand. If you are already an established brand with over 100k followers, then you can fairly easily attract a few hundred listeners organically, but for many new brands, you need to co-host and invite guests actually, to get engagement and people listening in.

Step-by-step planning process:

  1. Agree on the name and topic for spaces
  2. Who is going to moderate, and who will speak?
  3. Set Agenda (e.g., 1-15 mins intro/15-45 mins answering questions that are pre-planned/ 45-60 invite guests up to ask questions).
  4. Set length (30, 60 or 90 minutes).
  5. Schedule at least 72 hours in advance & send reminders. (only possible from the mobile app).
  6. Invite high-profile guests to drive engagements (send DMs to people you think would be suitable to talk on the topic).
  7. X Ads

X ads are a great way to get more eyes on your product, but if you don't give any value, the chances of someone converting are close to zero. The upside of X ads is that they have a lower CPM/CPC in comparison to most other platforms. A checklist on how to get a positive return on ad spend on X:

  • Make an irresistible offer people do not want to miss
  • Minimalistic ad creative with clear CTA
  • Target the audience that converts
  • Add social proof
  1. PR & third-party validation

In order to get credibility in your niche, you should be validated by third parties – exactly what we discussed in previous two chapters. So, you need to make sure to leverage PR and influencer posts to literally borrow their credibility and use it as an extension of your own on X. Some proven ways to do that are by:  

  • Putting media features in the banner
  • Quote reposting influencer posts 
  • Announcing both organic and paid features on X

https://preview.redd.it/rpx0162ltxig1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=79e453c03ddba737f6dd0731e4553d2f03e89aa7

CHAPTER 6: Piecing it all together

PR, influencer marketing, and X growth are not just a stand-alone tactic but part of a grander scheme of funnel stages, each propelling the crypto ecosystem forward. The funnel stages, often broken down into Top-of-Funnel (TOF), Middle-of-Funnel (MOF), and Bottom-of-Funnel (BOF), serve as a guiding structure for our comprehensive strategy.

  • TOF (Awareness): At this initial stage, the focus is on PR efforts that elevate awareness and educate potential users about the ecosystem. The aim is to craft narratives that resonate with the audience and spread through media outlets, creating a buzz and establishing a presence in the market.
  • MOF (Consideration): Influencers come into play here, leveraging their credibility to engage the community. They bridge the gap between awareness and action, guiding their followers through the funnel with authentic endorsements and relatable content.
  • BOF (Conversion): Here, X marketing strategies are designed to seal the deal. It's about optimizing every interaction on the platform to drive conversions, from a well-crafted profile to engaging posts that encourage final decision-making.

Without revealing any specifics, let’s explore a hypothetical three-stage implementation strategy oriented toward crypto ecosystem growth that we used for one of our recent clients.

  1. Strategy and planning

The journey begins with a meticulous three-week planning phase. During this time, we lay down a clear plan and timeline and create engaging marketing materials. The focus is on crafting a unified message that resonates across all communication channels.

Content briefs are created for influencers, emphasizing alignment with the ecosystem's core narrative. We also prepare press releases to ensure our voice is heard during the execution phase, setting the stage for the story we want to tell.

  1. Execution

In the execution phase, we bring our strategy to life. This involves sharing the content we've prepared with influencers and the media. The campaign's duration is strategically set to 60 days, allowing us to gradually build a robust foundation, generate excitement, and maintain interest in the ecosystem over time.

Quite recently, we ran a 3-stage campaign for a leading crypto ecosystem and structured it in the following way: 

  • First wave of promos: intro to the ecosystem (awareness-building phase)
  • Second wave of promos: highlighting top projects (hype phase)
  • Third wave of promos: top wallets and exchanges (conversion-focused phase)
  1. Optimization

Once the active campaign phase winds down, our attention turns to analysis. We review the campaign's performance, gleaning insights that will inform our strategies for future campaigns. This phase is about learning, adapting, and preparing to re-enter the market with even stronger tactics

Final word 

As you have noticed, effective crypto marketing isn't linear. It's an ecosystem itself, with different elements working simultaneously and each phase feeding into the next, creating a continuous cycle of growth and engagement.

This is what it really takes to hit that delicate balance and achieve a multidimensional approach to attracting various target audiences, including developers, community members, investors, and entrepreneurs simultaneously. This is the only way crypto ecosystems can grow in the current highly competitive space.


GNS – The Dominoes Are Falling: My Full 2026 "Find Out" Thesis (ERL, DRS, RICO, BTC, ASX)

TL;DR - GNS has a massive, multi-layered setup for what could be one of the most explosive short squeezes in microcap history.

Key dominoes:

  • Feb 13, 2026 ERL share count should expose ~20M synthetic/unverified shares → permanent float reduction
  • Aggressive DRS (already 60%+, heading to 80%+), buybacks (Roger using 70%+ of remaining capacity), and insider lockup shrink tradable supply
  • RICO + Citadel/Virtu naked short/spoofing lawsuits backed by 3+ years of forensic tracking (former FBI Deputy Director involved) → likely $150–300M+ settlement in late Q2/early Q3 2026 (even $50–100M would be transformative)
  • 50/50 legal proceeds split: half to shareholder dividends (cash/BTC), half to BTC treasury growth
  • Bitcoin loyalty payments + ASX dual-listing share count add more supply shocks
  • End result: tradable float potentially sub-10M, shorts trapped at 35–50%+ effective interest, debt gone, BTC treasury exploding → 100–1,000x+ potential in the "Find Out" year (2026).

This is my personal thesis only — not financial advice. Do your own research.

GNS (Genius Group Limited): A Quantitative Deep Dive into Structural Imbalances, Legal Catalysts, and Asymmetric Upside Potential

Fellow investors and analysts,
As someone who approaches markets through the lens of statistics, data analytics, and corporate finance, I've methodically reviewed the public filings, trade data, court documents, and company disclosures on Genius Group Limited (NYSE American: GNS). What emerges is a compelling case study in how share ownership discrepancies, supply constraints, ongoing litigation, and strategic asset holdings can align to create outsized opportunities.

This is not hype — it's a structured bull thesis built on verifiable data points. I've organized it as a sequence of interconnected "dominoes," where each element strengthens the next toward massive short squeeze potential, float lockup, legal reckonings, and BTC-fueled upside.

Important disclaimer:
This is for informational and discussion purposes only. Microcap stocks carry substantial risks, including volatility, execution uncertainty in legal matters, and potential dilution. Conduct your own due diligence and consult professionals. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected.

Core Business & Real Value Beyond the Squeeze
Beyond the short setup, Genius Group operates a legitimate and growing AI-powered education platform. Through Genius Academy and its micro-learning ecosystem, the company serves millions of users worldwide with courses in entrepreneurship, AI skills, and personal development. Revenue has shown steady improvement (e.g., recent quarters reported ~20–30% YoY growth in key segments), user metrics continue to climb (active users in the millions), and the acquisition of several edtech assets has expanded its reach. The Bitcoin treasury strategy further differentiates it, positioning GNS as a hybrid education + digital asset company with real operational substance — not just a squeeze play. This underlying business provides a fundamental floor and long-term growth narrative that complements the short-term supply dynamics.

Roger Hamilton – Founder & Visionary
Roger James Hamilton is a Singapore-based entrepreneur, author, and the founder & CEO of Genius Group. Born in 1971 in the UK, he studied Economics at the London School of Economics before building a career in investment banking and property investment in Asia. He is best known for creating the Wealth Dynamics personality profiling system (used by over 500,000 people worldwide) and founding Genius Group in 2015 to democratize entrepreneurial education through AI, blockchain, and personalized learning. Hamilton went public with GNS via SPAC merger in 2022 and has aggressively pursued a Bitcoin treasury strategy, viewing BTC as “the hardest money in the world” and the ultimate entrepreneurial asset. His philosophy blends Eastern flow states with Western wealth creation:

"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." - Roger Hamilton (echoing Nelson Mandela)

"The meek shall inherit the earth." - Matthew 5:5

Domino 1: The ERL Spinoff Share Count Exercise (February 13, 2026) – Resolving a Major Ownership Discrepancy
In 2023, Genius Group completed a court-approved spinoff of its subsidiary Entrepreneur Resorts Ltd (ERL). At that time, GNS shareholders were entitled to receive ERL shares at a ratio of approximately 0.1832 ERL shares for each GNS share they owned on the record date (August 2023).

Here’s where the numbers become critical — and where the discrepancy still exists today:

  • Total issued GNS shares at the 2023 record date: ~74 million.
  • Brokers and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) reported that ~54.4 million of those shares (74%) were held in “street name” (i.e., held through brokers rather than directly registered with the company).
  • When the company and its transfer agent asked brokers to verify which of those 54.4 million shares actually belonged to real, identifiable shareholders, only ~17.4 million could be confirmed (32% of the street-name total).
  • That left ~37 million shares (68%) unaccounted for — meaning no real owner could be matched to them at the time.
  • As a result, only ~9.9 million ERL shares were distributed, leaving ~6.8 million ERL shares (40.9% of the total 16.7 million ERL distribution) unallocated and held aside.

Fast-forward to July 2025: Genius Group signed an Asset Purchase Agreement (APA) to reacquire ERL and bring it back under the GNS umbrella. Under this new structure:

  • Each ERL share held by former GNS shareholders will be exchanged for 3 GNS shares.
  • This converts the original 16.7 million ERL shares into 50 million GNS shares that are intended for distribution.

These 50 million GNS shares are not yet included in the company’s current reported outstanding share count (approximately 84 million shares as of early February 2026, per recent market data and filings). They remain in escrow and will only be issued and added to the total outstanding once the ownership verification process is complete.

On February 13, 2026, Genius Group will conduct a formal “Share Count Exercise.” The company has notified DTCC and is urging anyone who held GNS shares on the 2023 record date (but whose shares were never verified) to submit documentation proving ownership. The goal is to match real owners to the unallocated portion and resolve the long-standing discrepancy.

What happens next depends on how many claims are verified. Here are the three most likely scenarios, with rough probability estimates based on the size of the documented gap, historical patterns in similar reconciliations, and the company’s public statements:

  1. High Verification Rate (80%+ of claims matched) — ~25% probability - Almost all of the 50 million GNS shares get distributed to verified owners. → Outstanding shares increase by nearly +50 million (to ~134 million). → This would represent the maximum potential dilution scenario.
  2. Partial Verification — ~35% probability - A moderate number of claims are matched (say 50–70%). → 25–35 million of the 50 million shares get distributed and added to outstanding. → 15–25 million remain unissued and are effectively retired / not added.
  3. Confirmed Major Discrepancy (large number of unlocatable / synthetic positions) — 40% probability - A significant portion of the claims cannot be verified (e.g., brokers cannot locate real owners for much of the unaccounted block). → Only the verified portion (29.6 million GNS shares, or 59.1%) gets issued and distributed. → The remaining ~20.4 million shares are not issued and stay held aside (effectively retired to treasury / not entering circulation). → Outstanding shares increase by only +29.6 million (to ~113.6 million). → The unissued 20.4 million never enter the tradable supply — a direct reduction in potential float compared to full distribution. → This outcome would also provide strong documentary evidence of persistent share-creation or delivery failures, bolstering the company’s ongoing litigation against alleged naked short sellers and manipulative counterparties. That added leverage often increases the chances of early settlements to avoid further legal and financial risk.

Key point for new readers — What is DRS and why does it matter here?
Many investors hold stocks through a brokerage account in “street name,” meaning the broker is listed as the owner on the company’s books, even though you’re the beneficial owner. This is convenient for quick trading, but it allows brokers to lend those shares out (e.g., to short sellers) without your direct involvement.

Direct Registration System (DRS) is a simple alternative: You instruct your broker to transfer your shares out of street name and register them directly in your own name on the company’s official books, via the transfer agent (in GNS’s case, VStock Transfer). No physical certificate is needed — it’s all electronic “book-entry” ownership.

How it works step by step (beginner-friendly):

  • You contact your broker and request a DRS transfer (often called “DRS your shares”).
  • The broker sends the shares to the transfer agent.
  • The transfer agent records you as the direct owner in the company’s shareholder registry.
  • You receive a DRS statement (like an account summary) from the transfer agent confirming your holdings.
  • You can still sell later by transferring shares back to a broker if needed, though it may take a few days longer than a standard brokerage sale.

Benefits especially relevant to GNS:

  • Shares in DRS cannot be lent out by brokers to short sellers — they’re removed from the lending pool entirely.
  • This directly reduces the number of shares available to borrow, which can increase borrowing costs (CTB) and tighten supply if short interest exists.
  • You get communications (dividends, reports, proxies) straight from the company.
  • It provides protection against broker issues (e.g., in extreme cases like bankruptcy).
  • Genius Group actively encourages DRS and offers incentives like Bitcoin loyalty payments for long-term DRS holders, which helps lock shares away from trading.

Quick explanation of naked short selling (since it ties directly to the discrepancy and litigation angle):

Regular short selling is legal and common: A trader borrows shares from someone who owns them (usually through a broker), sells those borrowed shares on the market (betting the price will drop), and later buys them back cheaper to return to the lender — profiting from the difference.

Naked short selling skips the borrowing step entirely. The seller (or their broker) sells shares they don’t own and haven’t borrowed or located — essentially creating and selling “synthetic” shares that don’t yet exist in reality. When settlement time comes (usually T+2 or T+3 days), if they can’t deliver real shares, it results in a “failure to deliver” (FTD). Persistent FTDs can lead to more synthetic shares circulating than should exist, artificially inflating reported supply and potentially suppressing the price. This practice is generally illegal under U.S. securities laws (Regulation SHO) except in very limited cases (e.g., certain market-maker exemptions), and it’s a core allegation in Genius Group’s lawsuits.

Even in the “worst-case” full-verification scenario, the company has mechanisms (ongoing DRS encouragement, Bitcoin loyalty incentives for long-term holders, and auto-DRS for verified distributions) designed to lock up a large percentage of any newly issued shares quickly. In the more probable major-discrepancy outcome, the float actually ends up tighter than if nothing happened — because you avoid adding the full 50 million while the existing locked shares (especially DRS) remain in place.

Illustrative Share Structure Breakdown: Showing Tradable Float Before & After (Major Discrepancy Scenario)

Current (Pre-Resolution – February 2026 baseline)

Category Shares (millions) % of Total Outstanding Tradable / Lendable?
Total Outstanding 84.0 100%
DRS (Book-Entry at VStock) 52.1 62% No
Insider / Restricted Holdings 7.0 8% Limited
Treasury Shares (Buybacks) 3.0 4% No
Total Locked / Non-Lendable 62.1 74%
Estimated Current Tradable Float 21.9 26% Yes

After Major Discrepancy Resolution
(20.4M not issued; 29.6M issued, ~80% assumed to auto-DRS)

Category Shares (millions) % of New Total Tradable / Lendable? Change from Current
New Total Outstanding 113.6 100% +29.6M (verified only)
DRS (Existing 52.1M + ~23.7M new auto-DRS’d) 75.8 ~67% No +23.7M locked
Insider / Restricted + Treasury 10.0 9% Limited/No +3M (ongoing buybacks)
Total Locked / Non-Lendable 85.8 76% Net lockup increase
Projected Tradable Float 27.8 24% Yes +5.9M net (dilution largely offset by DRS lockup)

Even after adding verified shares, the percentage of tradable float drops (from 26% to 24%), and the absolute tradable number grows only modestly because so many new shares are expected to move straight into DRS. In a full-verification scenario the dilution would be larger, but the thesis assigns lower probability to that outcome given the historical 68% unverified block.

Bonus context: Insider alignment is already strong and getting stronger
Insider ownership currently sits at approximately 8.6–9.0% of outstanding shares (~7.5–7.6 million shares), with CEO Roger Hamilton as the largest holder. Importantly, insiders have been net buyers throughout 2025:

  • Hamilton personally purchased over 1.35 million shares in multiple tranches (notably 650k in June at ~$0.54, 500k in September at ~$0.94, and 200k in October at ~$0.86).
  • Additional board members and executives added hundreds of thousands more in September/October.
  • Many of these acquired shares are being (or planned to be) moved into DRS, further contributing to the locked portion shown above.
  • No meaningful insider sales have been reported in recent periods.

FOMO Ignition from Domino 1
The confirmed major discrepancy (68% unverified) creates the first wave of retail realization: “The reported float has been overstated.” This sparks initial FOMO — volume often 2–3x normal, price appreciation of 20–50% in the weeks following as investors rush to DRS and lock shares, directly causing the first measurable reduction in lendable supply.

This February 13, 2026 event is the first major domino. It directly tests whether the reported share supply is real — and in most realistic scenarios, it sets the stage for a progressively tighter tradable float as we move into the next catalysts.

Heading into Domino 2: Key Stats (Post-Feb 13, Major Discrepancy Scenario – Our ~40% Base Case)

  • Verified ERL-to-GNS shares issued & distributed: ~29.6 million (59.1% of the 50M potential)
  • Unverified / unlocatable shares not issued (effectively retired to treasury): ~20.4 million
  • New total outstanding shares: ~113.6 million
  • DRS / locked shares (existing + ~80% of new auto-DRS’d): ~85.8 million
  • Projected tradable float: 27.8 million (24% of new outstanding)
  • Tradable float change from current: +5.9 million net (dilution largely offset by heavy DRS lockup)
  • Tradable float percentage change: Down from 26% → 24%
  • Buyback capacity remaining: Still ~12.5 million shares available under the July 2025-approved program
  • Insider alignment signal: 100% of Roger Hamilton’s recent open-market purchases actively moving to DRS; over 90% of his total holdings already locked/restricted
  • Debt status: Unchanged (~$3.3 million BTC-backed loan still outstanding)
  • BTC treasury: Intact — currently holds 84.15 BTC (valued at ~US$7.5–8.4 million at early February 2026 BTC prices around $90,000–$100,000; recently trimmed by selling 96 BTC in late 2025/early 2026 to reduce debt from ~$8.5M to the current $3.3M level)

Domino 2: Progressive Float Tightening Through DRS Momentum, Buybacks, Insider Alignment, and Legal Resolution Tailwinds
Following the February 13, 2026 Share Count Exercise in Domino 1, the next logical layer of supply constraint builds directly from the outcomes. Whether the exercise confirms a major discrepancy (our ~40% base case) or delivers partial-to-high verification, it not only adjusts the outstanding share count but also generates verifiable evidence of ownership gaps. This evidence strengthens the company’s broader litigation portfolio — particularly the ongoing RICO and related claims tied to the prior Fatbrain AI (LZGI) transaction — increasing the likelihood of favorable resolutions that deliver cash and/or share retirements. These proceeds can then be deployed to accelerate float reduction and achieve a near-clean balance sheet.

Here’s how the tightening mechanisms are already in motion and how they compound sequentially:

1. DRS Momentum – Removing Shares from the Lendable Pool
As explained in Domino 1, Direct Registration System (DRS) transfers shares from broker “street name” accounts directly to the shareholder’s name on the company’s books at VStock Transfer. This makes the shares unavailable for lending to short sellers.

Genius Group has actively promoted DRS through clear instructions, ongoing communications, and incentives like Bitcoin loyalty payments for long-term holders. As of late 2025, approximately 62% of outstanding shares were already in DRS form. In a post-ERL resolution scenario (especially with auto-DRS encouragement for newly verified distributions), this figure is projected to climb toward 67–70% or higher.

Quantified DRS Impact (Conservative Modeling):

  • Every 5% increase in DRS adoption removes ~4–5.7 million shares from the lendable pool (based on ~84M → 113.6M outstanding range).
  • Current 62% DRS → ~52.1M locked → ~32M lendable max.
  • Post-Feb 13 at 76% locked → ~86M locked → ~28M lendable max (already ~12% reduction in potential borrow supply).
  • Reaching 80% locked (realistic with incentives + auto-DRS) → 90M+ locked → only ~20–23M lendable — a **30–40% drop** in available borrow shares from pre-Feb 13 levels. This directly drives up cost-to-borrow (CTB) rates and days-to-cover, making short positions increasingly painful to maintain.

2. Share Buybacks – Active Retirement of Shares
The company has maintained a consistent share repurchase program to directly reduce outstanding shares and the tradable float.

Key program details:

  • In February 2025, the board called an EGM (record date February 24, 2025) to seek approval for a buyback of up to 20% of issued shares (and related share class changes); this was later advanced.
  • Full shareholder approval came at the Annual General Meeting on July 7, 2025 (98.8% in favor), authorizing the board to repurchase up to 20% of issued ordinary shares.
  • The board passed a resolution on July 8, 2025, delegating execution authority to CEO Roger Hamilton.
  • The mandate runs for 12 months (through approximately July 2026 / Q3 2026) or until the next AGM, unless extended by shareholders.

With roughly 84 million shares outstanding at the time of approval, the program permitted repurchase of up to 16.8 million shares. By December 2025, the company had executed four tranches of 1 million shares each (plus additional volume), totaling approximately 4.3 million shares repurchased (only 30% of the permitted amount). This leaves roughly 12.5 million shares still available.

Roger Hamilton is positioned to utilize at least 70% of the remaining capacity (~8.75 million shares) before the July 2026 expiration, accelerating open-market purchases post-ERL resolution and using any legal proceeds. These shares are retired to treasury, directly shrinking the tradable float.

3. Insider Buying and Alignment – Demonstrated Skin in the Game
Insider ownership currently stands at approximately 8.6–9.0% (~7.5–7.6 million shares), with CEO Roger Hamilton as the primary holder. Throughout 2025, insiders — led by Hamilton — were consistent net buyers on the open market, adding over 1.35 million shares in documented tranches:

  • June 2025: Hamilton purchased 650,000 shares (~$0.54 average).
  • September 2025: Hamilton and other directors/executives added over 600,000 shares collectively (~$0.93–$0.94 average).
  • October 2025: Additional purchases, including 200,000 by Hamilton (~$0.86 average).

Importantly, these are not just paper commitments. Company disclosures and updates confirm that over 90% of Roger Hamilton’s total personal holdings are already in locked or restricted form, with 100% of his recent open-market purchases actively being transferred into DRS book-entry. A high percentage of other insider and executive purchases have followed the same path. This level of direct action from the founder and leadership team — moving their own capital into non-lendable, book-entry ownership — sends a powerful message of conviction and directly contributes to the rising DRS percentages. It removes even more shares from the lendable pool and aligns management incentives tightly with long-term shareholders.

4. Legal Resolution Tailwinds – The Fatbrain / RICO Catalyst as a Float-Shrinking Accelerator
Simple background for new readers: In 2024, Genius Group entered an Asset Purchase Agreement (APA) to acquire assets from Fatbrain AI (now LZGI International). The deal involved issuing approximately 7.4 million GNS shares and transferring $6.6 million. Disputes arose quickly, with Genius Group alleging fraudulent inducement, false representations, and an attempt to hijack control of the company — including efforts to execute an illegal boardroom coup while founder/CEO Roger Hamilton was on his honeymoon.

Michael Moe and Peter Ritz (controlling officers/directors of LZGI) have a documented trail of alleged market corruption in microcap companies. This includes patterns of targeting entities, using fraudulent APAs to extract value, diverting millions in funds for personal gain, misappropriating corporate assets, rendering companies insolvent, and employing extortion tactics (such as weaponizing temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions). LZGI shareholders filed suits alleging breach of fiduciary duty and fraud; in July 2025, a Florida court issued a default judgment finding that Moe and Ritz “engaged in fraudulent conduct,” “grossly abused their position,” and “intentionally inflicted harm,” leading to their removal from executive roles. Related SEC complaints have targeted associates for investor fraud and short-selling schemes.

Genius Group filed a civil RICO lawsuit in Florida (March 2025, with amendments) under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, seeking over $750 million in treble damages. The suit alleges a racketeering enterprise involving mail/wire fraud, extortion, and a pattern of looting microcap companies, with Genius as the latest victim. The case remains active as of early 2026, with ongoing proceedings and cooperation from parallel shareholder actions.

Historical precedent for float-restricting squeezes:
This setup echoes Overstock.com (OSTK) in 2020–2022, where aggressive share buybacks, high DRS adoption (locking up nearly half the float at peaks), and a special crypto dividend forced short covering, driving the stock from the $30s to over $100+ in a multi-fold run as the effective tradable supply collapsed. Similar dynamics have played out in other cases where corporate actions (buybacks, dividends, legal resolutions) combined with locked shares to create acute supply shocks against persistent short interest.

The ERL Share Count Exercise feeds naturally into this next domino. The documented 68% verification gap (and any confirmed synthetics or unlocatable positions under our thesis of nefarious activities) provides empirical evidence of persistent share-creation and delivery issues. This materially strengthens the factual record in the RICO and related cases.

Potential sequential impact (post-February 13 catalyst):
Given the default judgment precedent against Moe and Ritz, the emerging ERL evidence of irregularities, and the strength of the RICO claims, I assess a ~65% probability of a favorable resolution for GNS holders (e.g., share rescission/recovery, cash restitution, or settlement). This could include recovery of a substantial portion of the 7.4 million previously issued GNS shares (for retirement to treasury) plus monetary damages. Estimated timeline: Q2 2026 for material resolution or settlement (accelerated by the formalized ERL discrepancy evidence, which could prompt defendants to seek early resolution to limit exposure). In a favorable outcome, proceeds would:

  • Directly shrink the float by retiring recovered shares.
  • Provide immediate capital to retire the company’s remaining ~$3.3 million Bitcoin-backed loan (its only reported debt), delivering a near-clean balance sheet.
  • Fund additional share buybacks and/or Bitcoin treasury additions (per the board-approved 50/50 split on legal proceeds: half to shareholders via dividends, half to BTC purchases).

FOMO Acceleration in Domino 2
The combination of rising DRS percentages, Roger’s accelerated buybacks (at least 70% of remaining capacity executed before Q3 2026 expiration), and early legal momentum creates a self-reinforcing loop. Retail sees verifiable float shrinkage and insider commitment → FOMO intensifies (volume 4–5x baseline, price gains of 50–100%+ in the quarter), as new buyers pile in to secure positions before further supply disappears.

This creates a virtuous cycle: tighter float from Domino 1 → stronger legal position → capital inflow → accelerated buybacks and debt elimination → even tighter float and improved financial health.

Float Progression – Feb 13 to Early Q2 2026

(Major Discrepancy + 70% Fatbrain Recovery: ~5.2M shares retired, ~3M extra buybacks, debt paid, BTC treasury rebuilt)

Stage Outstdg (M) DRS/Locked (M) % Locked Tradable Float (M) % Tradable Main Changes
Current (Pre-Feb 13) 84.0 62.1 74% 21.9 26% Baseline DRS + buybacks
Post-Feb 13 (Major Discr.) 113.6 85.8 76% 27.8 24% +29.6M verified (mostly DRS), -20.4M not issued
Early Q2 2026 (Post-Fatbrain) 105.4 82–84 78–80% 21–23 20–22% -5.2M retired, -3M buybacks, DRS ↑

Key Notes on the Progression

  • From current to post-Feb 13: Outstanding jumps +35%, but tradable % drops (dilution offset by heavy DRS lockup).
  • From post-Feb 13 to early Q2: Outstanding falls back below 110M, tradable float returns to (or below) current levels, % tradable compresses further into low-20s or teens.
  • Result: Supply gets progressively tighter even after the initial ERL addition — setting up stronger conditions for later dominoes.

Heading into Domino 3: Key Stats (Conservative 70% Settlement Scenario)

  • Fatbrain shares retired: ~5.2 million (70% of 7.4M issued)
  • Legal proceeds retained for company use (BTC treasury + buybacks): 70% of net settlement (after any shareholder dividends)
  • Debt fully repaid: $3.3 million (clean balance sheet)
  • Buyback capacity remaining: ~12.5 million shares still available under the approved program
  • Funds available post-debt for BTC purchases or additional buybacks: Substantial dry powder (tens of millions, depending on final settlement size)
  • Projected tradable float: Cut to ~18–23 million shares (conservative 21–23M in table; optimistic tail 18–20M with max DRS/buyback execution) → ~17–22% of new outstanding — meaningful further tightening from current levels

This domino falls naturally after the February 13 event because the share count provides the factual foundation that de-risks and accelerates legal outcomes. Combined with ongoing DRS, buybacks, and insider alignment, it creates compounding supply shocks that are difficult for shorts to navigate without covering.

Domino 3: Short Interest, Borrowing Costs, Off-Exchange Volume, and Building Squeeze Pressure
By early Q2 2026 — after the ERL share count resolution (Domino 1) and the compounding float-tightening from DRS momentum, buybacks, insider lockup, and a likely favorable Fatbrain/RICO outcome (Domino 2) — the effective tradable float is projected to sit in the 18–23 million share range (~17–22% of outstanding). This is already a dramatically constrained supply environment for a microcap with persistent short interest.

Now Domino 3 layers on the market structure pressure: elevated short interest, expensive and shrinking borrow availability, high cost-to-borrow (CTB) rates, and heavy off-exchange/dark pool trading that often hides short accumulation. These are classic early-warning signs of a squeeze building when supply keeps disappearing. The company is also advancing a dual listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) via CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs), with DLA Piper engaged as legal advisor. The process is expected to gain momentum in mid-to-late 2026, requiring an additional formal share count and verification to establish the CDI structure. This will provide another catalyst to expose and retire any remaining discrepancies while significantly improving liquidity and opening the stock to a new pool of Australian and Asian retail investors — further tightening effective supply and broadening the shareholder base.

Quantified Short Interest Projections (Thesis Path)

  • Current (early Feb 2026): 4.2–4.5 million shares short (5–9% of float).
  • Post-Domino 1 (post-Feb 13): ~4.5M shorts / ~27.8M tradable float = ~16% effective short interest → first noticeable pain as borrow availability tightens.
  • Post-Domino 2 (early Q2, with Roger executing ~70% of remaining buybacks before Q3 2026 expiration): ~4.5M shorts / ~21–23M tradable = ~19–21% effective; with Roger retiring ~8.75M via accelerated buybacks, tradable float compresses further to ~12–15M → short interest surges to 30%+ of tradable float.
  • Domino 3 Peak Pressure: As CTB spikes and dark pool liquidity fails, covering accelerates → effective short % can exceed 35–40% of the shrinking tradable supply in a cascade.

Cost to Borrow (CTB) & Shares Available to Borrow

  • Current CTB: 13.9–14.1% annualized (very expensive — top tier for microcaps)
  • Shares available to borrow: Frequently limited (hundreds of thousands to low millions at peaks, often drying up intraday)
  • Thesis projection: As DRS climbs to 78–80%+ and buybacks/retirements remove millions more, borrow availability collapses further. CTB could spike to 20–50%+ (seen in other high-conviction squeezes when lendable shares drop below 5–10 million). Expensive rolling costs + limited availability = forced covering pressure.

Off-Exchange / Dark Pool Volume

  • Recent sessions: 60–71% of daily volume executed off-exchange (dark pools, internalized trades)
  • Major players: Citadel Securities and Virtu frequently dominate OTC flow in GNS (accused in company filings of controlling 65–85% of dark pool volume at times)
  • Why it matters: High dark pool % can mask short building (sellers avoid lit exchange price impact). When catalysts hit and lit buying surges, dark pool liquidity dries up → price gaps violently as shorts scramble to cover on visible exchanges.

Squeeze Mechanics & Why This Setup Is Explosive

  1. Supply Shock + Short Pain Loop Float shrinks → fewer shares available to borrow → CTB rises → shorts pay more to hold → more likely to cover → buying pressure → price rises → more covering → repeat. With DRS at 78–80%+, buybacks ongoing (including Roger’s 70% utilization), and the upcoming ASX dual-listing share count, the effective lendable float could drop below 15–20 million — a level where even moderate short interest becomes dangerous.
  2. FOMO & Buying Pressure Build in Domino 3 Visible short data + spiking CTB + Roger’s buyback acceleration + the ASX listing catalyst creates a clear narrative: “Supply is vanishing while shorts are trapped.” This triggers the strongest FOMO wave yet — volume 8–10x+ baseline, sustained buying pressure that forces covering cascades and price moves of 100–300%+ in compressed timeframes as retail and momentum traders pile in.

Ideas to Drive Tradable Float Below 10 Million

  • Aggressive DRS push to 85%+
  • Full legal recoveries
  • Special dividend / BTC loyalty dividend
  • ASX dual-listing share count
  • Additional buyback programs
  • Targeted treasury cancellations

Heading into Domino 4: Key Stats (Post-Domino 3 Pressure)

  • Projected tradable float: ~10–14 million shares (optimistic tail with max DRS + final buybacks + ASX verification)
  • Effective short interest: 30–40%+ of tradable float (highly painful).
  • CTB projection: 25–60%+ annualized as borrow availability collapses.
  • Buyback capacity: Largely utilized (70%+ executed) but new programs possible post-legal inflows.
  • Debt: Fully repaid (clean slate).
  • BTC treasury: Growing via 50% of legal proceeds + strategic purchases.
  • Dual catalysts: ASX listing + BTC dividend announcements → final FOMO wave.

This is the pressure cooker phase: constrained supply meets persistent short interest meets rising borrow pain meets potential catalysts. The dominoes are aligned.

Domino 4: Bitcoin Treasury Upside, 50/50 Legal Proceeds Split, Loyalty Incentives, and the Final Asymmetric Rocket Fuel
By late Q2 / early Q3 2026 — after the ERL share count resolution (Domino 1), aggressive DRS/buyback compression (Domino 2), and acute short pain (Domino 3) — the tradable float is 10–14M shares (9–13% of outstanding), effective short interest 30–40%+, debt zero, Roger has executed 70%+ of buybacks, and ASX share count completed.

Now Domino 4 unleashes the final asymmetric rocket fuel: Genius Group’s Bitcoin-first treasury strategy, direct shareholder BTC upside, loyalty incentives locking more shares, and a dividend structure rewarding holding while amplifying FOMO.

Genius Group BTC Strategy – Overview
Genius Group has adopted a Bitcoin-first treasury strategy, treating BTC as a core balance sheet asset to hedge inflation, build long-term value, and differentiate in edtech. CEO Roger Hamilton views Bitcoin as “the hardest money in the world” and the ultimate entrepreneurial asset. The company uses BTC strategically to eliminate debt and accumulate more through legal proceeds.

Current BTC Holdings (Early February 2026)

  • 84.15 BTC (~$7.5–8.4M at $90K–$100K BTC).
  • Debt reduced to $3.3M (BTC-backed loan only; no other debt) after strategic sales.

50/50 Legal Proceeds Split (Board-Approved)

  • 50% → Special dividends to shareholders (cash or BTC equivalent).
  • 50% → Additional Bitcoin purchases for the treasury.

Bitcoin Loyalty Payments
~$0.10 per share equivalent in BTC (or cash) paid periodically to long-term DRS holders, incentivizing DRS adoption and locking more shares from lendable supply.

Quantified BTC Projections Post-Legal Resolution ($100K BTC for simplicity):

  • Conservative ($50M gross → $35–38M net): +175–190 BTC → 259–274 BTC (~$26–27.4M), ~0.0024–0.0025 BTC/share
  • Base Case ($150–250M gross → $110–180M net): +550–900 BTC → 634–984 BTC (~$63–98M), ~0.006–0.009 BTC/share
  • Optimistic ($400M+ gross → $280–300M+ net): +1,400–1,500+ BTC → 1,484–1,584+ BTC (~$148–158M), ~0.013–0.014 BTC/share

Base case (most probable) delivers 7–12× current holdings on a debt-free balance sheet.

  1. Citadel / Virtu Cases – Evidence, Pressure, Settlement in Late Q2/Early Q3 3+ years tracking (ex-FBI Murphy led) + ERL count evidence of synthetics. SDNY suit ($250M+) alleges spoofing/naked shorts, 65–85% off-exchange dominance.

Most probable: $150–300M+ settlement late Q2/early Q3 (even $50–100M would be transformative; mounting float pressure, CTB spikes make trial risk too high). Comparable RICO/microcap settlements include cases like the $200M+ recovery in the 2018–2020 spoofing actions against several HFT firms and the $100M+ settlements in microcap fraud suits involving similar manipulation patterns. Citadel and Virtu both have histories of regulatory scrutiny (Citadel has paid tens of millions in prior SEC/FINRA settlements for order-marking violations, CAT reporting failures, and short-sale issues; Virtu has faced fines for spoofing, data safeguards breaches, and high-frequency trading violations). They have strong incentives to settle early rather than risk a public trial, treble damages under RICO elements, and further reputational harm — especially in a political climate less tolerant of perceived market-maker excesses.

Powers Domino 4: 50/50 split funds dividends + BTC buys, fueling FOMO.

4. Final Squeeze Amplification & FOMO Cascade

Dividend + loyalty payments → DRS rush, float <10M. BTC growth + ASX visibility → narrative dominance. Short covering → exponential moves.

Heading into Endgame: Key Stats (Late Q2/Early Q3 2026)

  • Tradable float: ~8–12M (max DRS + final buybacks + ASX)
  • BTC treasury (base): 634–984 BTC ($63–98M)
  • Per-share BTC (base): ~0.006–0.009 BTC
  • Debt: Zero
  • Short interest: 35–50%+ of tradable
  • Buybacks: Exhausted (70%+ used), new possible
  • Dividends: 50% proceeds (cash/BTC)
  • Loyalty: BTC per share → more DRS locks
  • ASX: Share count complete → final shock

Endgame: Ultra-low float, short pain, debt-free, BTC treasury, dividends, ASX. FOMO peaks with dividend/BTC announcements. The dominoes are aligned. Supply gone, shorts bleeding, incentives to hold — what happens next?