For context I work in Finance at a major institution. In my 30s. I'm no expert, nor can I read the tarot cards. But I think I do know more about how the financial system works than the average person.
I'm a secret bitcoiner, ie in the closet. If my bosses knew I had 75% of my net worth in BTC it would affect my chances of a promotion. They would look at me like a crazy person.
The software that I work on indexes the US GAAP rules. For those who don't know US GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) are the standardized rules and guidelines that companies in the United States must follow when preparing and reporting their financial statements so that financial information is consistent, transparent, and comparable across organizations.
Back when the ETF was in the process of being approved and they publicly announced updates to the rule set to include language for Bitcoin I knew this was a HUGE DEAL. They don't just update these rules on a whim. I bought as much as I could afford. Prior my money was mainly in 2 pieces of real estate. But I was getting slowly bled out from taxes and insurance.
Bitcoin to me solved all of these problems, store of value, portable, can't print it, no dealing with renters, etc etc. From my studies in college I had a background in cryptography but I'm like a C student in a smart class of guys, where I can't solve any of the complex coding problems but I can read and understand it lol. And so when I read the white paper for BTC I went ghost white in my room and started panicking that I needed to get my position ASAP. At the time the price was 30k. The 30k price signaled to me that other smart people had also reached the same conclusions as me but not a critical mass of them yet otherwise the market cap and price would be way higher.
The bitcoin standard makes a ton of sense to me. We store "value" in all sorts of stupid crap just because it's "rare" and we collectively deem a thing to have value, examples would be pokemon cards, art and so on.
I mistakenly bought into these super cycle price predictions, thinking the banks and all the major players would start buying like mad men since Bitcoin is the only truly scarce asset. Although we did get tons of buying, we did not get it to the levels that would send the price soaring to 500k and beyond. Lately we've been taking a beating, but wait zoom out.
Something really cool happened.
Trillions flowed into gold in a short window and caused the price to move 200% up in a 2 year window. My friends and I were SUPER disappointed, as we expected bitcoin to be the asset that absorbed this capital. It ended up being a flight to gold, ugh, but that's not necessarily bad news for us.
Gold market cap went up $7–11 trillion over the last 24 months.
That is WILD that there is that much money just sloshing around the system in a way that it can flood into a shiny rock haha. In my opinion it's a question of WHEN not if that money goes into BTC. If a similar event was to occur in the Bitcoin market, and 7 trillion flows into it, the price could easily sail past 500k bear case. We've never actually had so much capital flow into it that it exhausts the available supply on exchanges. Here's some moon boy math for you, theirs about 1 million BTC on Coinbase Advanced (liquid supply). If you multiply that by today's price of 73k, you could in theory buy the entire supply for 73 billion, obviously it doesn't work this way because as you buy more the price would rise to ensure a price supply equilibrium, but it's good to use this example to illustrate how little bitcoin is for sale on Coinbase and how little money it would take to detonate the price to Pluto. 11 trillion would be a thermonuclear bomb going off on the price. Lord only knows what happens if that capital flow was to turn towards bitcoin. My entire portfolio is setup and waiting for that possible event.
It's just going to take longer than what we initially expected.
On the phone with my friend I was telling him think about this, gold has been around since the dawn of time, it has a confidence that was earned with humans through trust due to its crazy long history. I mean it's fascinating to think you could travel back to nearly any place at any time period with some gold coins and get some food and shelter. It's humanity's original money.
Now that makes me think, Bitcoin needs more time just existing. We are not going to store 37+ trillion of value into something that is only 17 years old. It's a baby. And when you think about how fast this baby has grown in 17 years 1.5 trillion total market cap that screams that humanity is embracing this new asset SUPER fast. We are just impatient creatures by nature, me included. I was dreaming about this apartment in Italy I wanted to buy back when we were smashing all time high after all time high.
But here we stand now, at 70s, and I had to think deeply about my convictions and I stand by them.
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