Update: A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect from here

This is an update on an earlier to post that compared Bitcoin's current cycle to it's previous cycles. Last time, I mentioned two equally probable scenarios: a bullish and a bearish one. Recent events suggest the bearish scenario is more likely now, so I will be diving deeper into what a bearish scenario could mean for Bitcoin.

IMAGE OF CHART*

Key Considerations:

• I took the BTC's snapshots from each halving period until the market peak. An exemption is made for the first cycle in which the market data starts from July 17, 2010.
• All the cycle comparisons start at the most recent halving on May 11, 2020.
• As of today, we are ~375 days in the current cycle.

Key Takeaways

• BTC's cycle tops have diminishing returns and cycles are longer. So the 2020-21 chart (green) is mathematically expected to be below the 2017-18 chart (blue).
• The 2020-21 cycle is ahead of schedule. A similar trend, "premature bubble", occurred in the 2012-2013 cycle; but the price action eventually corrected. Again, this is what seems to be happening now.

What does this mean in relation to price/trend action?

• If 2020-21 were to follow the laws of diminishing returns and lengthening cycles, this could mean Bitcoin consolidates in the $50k to $25k range—maybe even lower.
• The 2013-14 cycle dipped (-72%) and consolidated for ~97 days before starting another rally. It also took ~200 days to reclaim its ATH before going on a 1-month rally to market cycle top. It's unsure whether Bitcoin's current cycle would uphold this pattern but one may use this as a grounded timeframe.

Of course, I will reiterate "you cannot use the past to predict the future." This is, by no means, an attempt to predict the market. The important takeaway is to stay level-headed and not to expect anything. Bitcoin will go up, down, or sideways regardless how individuals or math thinks about it. Take this chart with a pinch of salt; maybe even a handful.

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\* ^{Could just be me but there seems to have been a rule change on inserting images to text posts.}