Sunday, August 22, 2021

Getting rid of bias in trading.

When It comes to trading, one of the most important things is not having a bias.

Humans are subject to several bias mechanisms that we've develop through our journey to becoming our own species and differentiating ourselves from other primates.

We have confirmation bias, optimism bias, The Dunning-Kruger Effect, etc. These are just a few of our congenital biases.

All market moves, including crypto are product of human psychology. But some very big players like whales, constitutions and hedge funds have found ways to capitalize on these natural biases. Leading you to losing your money in risky trades all because you had tunnel vision.

There are a few ways to overcome these biases and let you look at the markets in a clearer way.

1- Consider the macros.

All markets are inevitably connected to each other, its important to look at other markets before investing in crypto, if S&P is not having a good day, it's unlikely crypto will. (Note that I said unlikely.)

2- Major world events can affect markets.

Take a look at Corona numbers and other world events. You shouldn't forget 2010 Flash Crash or the Corona Drop. Greece's situation played a vital role in the crash, it's important to take a look at these things if you're planning a long-term setup. For example, the current delta variant scares me into not making big, long term trades.

3- Watch Bitcoin.

No matter the timeframe, if I've got a good setup but the BTC looks like it might drop, I refrain myself from going into that setup.

4- Invert your graphs.

If you're convinced that you have a good setup to go long or short, you might want to invert your graph just to check if there are aspects you are missing. Inverting the graph gives a whole different look into the markets, devoid of any biases.

I hope that I could be of help in making you have better trades, take care everybody!


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