Lately, on this subreddit, I've noticed a growing concern about the 4-year crypto cycle losing its validity, all because many are aware of the bull/bear pattern. However, just knowing about an event doesn't guarantee it won't happen. The comments like " When the bull market comes this time, I'll take profits!" might be causing this. It gives the impression that if everyone sells, new all-time highs become unlikely. But in reality, some will sell too soon in the cycle (locking in profits), and their holdings will be snapped up by fresh crypto investors entering the scene. Among this group, there'll also be those who fall prey to bull market FOMO, becoming overly greedy and chasing higher highs, which eventually leads to their downfall. Even though we know about cryptocurrency cycles, it's our feelings/emotions that really decide what happens.
Here's an example, Bitcoins value rocketed to $69k but then ended up crashing to $15k, a +70% drop. Historically speaking we've seen a similar drop in the value of Bitcoin during the bear market, which seems like the perfect opportunity to buy low. However, fear in the market was also at an absolute high, that emotion overrode the knowledge individuals had even when faced with a great opportunity.
This just proves that understanding the previous crypto cycles is important but the ultimate decision on whether a market continues to rise or drop is dictated by human emotion.
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