📉 Key Phases of Bitcoin Scarcity
🚨 2024-2026: The Pre-Halving Liquidity Crisis? • ETF Demand Outpacing Mining Supply • Bitcoin miners currently produce ~450 BTC per day. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) are absorbing 3-5x this amount daily—draining exchange liquidity at an unprecedented rate. • If this trend continues, exchange BTC reserves could dry up within 1-2 years. • Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Reducing Circulating Supply • Over 70% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in a year (Glassnode data), meaning a large portion is locked up in cold storage. • If institutions and sovereign wealth funds continue accumulating, new buyers will struggle to source liquidity. • Retail FOMO & Market Cycles (2025 Bull Run?) • Historically, retail enters the market after Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs. • A price surge past $100K-$200K could trigger panic buying, further exacerbating supply issues
🔹 Implication: A liquidity crisis is possible as early as 2025-2026—well before the next halving.
🔹 2028-2032: Institutional Supply Shock Begins • The 2028 Halving will reduce block rewards from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. • By this time, over 99% of all Bitcoin will be mined. • Institutional players like hedge funds, ETFs, and sovereign wealth funds will dominate demand.
🔹 Bitcoin could become illiquid, with only small amounts available on exchanges.
🔹 2036-2040: Bitcoin Becomes Ultra-Scarce • The 2036 Halving will cut rewards to 0.39 BTC per block. • At this stage, 98% of all BTC will have been mined, making new supply almost negligible. • Large accumulations will become near impossible for new market entrants.
🔹 Bitcoin may no longer be a freely traded asset but a long-term reserve holding.
🔹 2050 and Beyond: The Era of Satoshis • By this point, almost all Bitcoin will be in circulation. • Mining rewards will be insignificant, and BTC will be priced in fractions (satoshis) rather than whole coins. • Bitcoin may function more like digital gold, rarely transacted but held for wealth preservation.
🔹 Owning a whole Bitcoin will be a status symbol, similar to gold bars today.
🔺 What This Means for Investors • The real supply shock may begin in 2025-2026, not 2028. • Institutional accumulation is already reducing liquid supply faster than expected. • 2036-2040 will be the last real window for accumulation before BTC becomes a scarce asset class. • By 2050, whole BTC ownership will be a privilege, and the market will shift to satoshis.
💡 TL;DR: If you wait for the “expected” Bitcoin scarcity event in 2028, you may already be too late. The accumulation window is closing much faster than most anticipate.
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