Here is the the objective, data-driven technical analysis of Bitcoin BTCUSDT, based strictly on the provided visualizations of the orderflow, market structure, and volume profiling.
Market Context & Orderflow Analysis
The overall market structure is in a heavy macro downtrend, with the price currently consolidating at the bottom following a significant capitulation event.
- Volume Profile & Price Action: The price is consolidating exactly around the daily Point of Control (POC) at $68,058. The vast majority of the volume (Value Area) is located significantly higher, with a Value Area High (VAH) around $87k. This indicates a massive distribution zone above the current price.
- SMC & Market Structure: The structure is undeniably bearish. Recent Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) signals point downward. There are massive bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) above the current price (e.g., around $81k and $88k), which will act as heavy resistance.
- Orderflow & CVD: The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows a sustained downward trend, confirming that market sells (selling pressure) are dominating. Open Interest is simultaneously declining, indicating the closing of positions and a distinct lack of new buyers entering the market (long leverage).
- Trend & Compression: Locally, a Symmetrical Triangle is forming (Lower Highs and Higher Lows). The market is compressing and building energy for the next impulse move.
Data-Driven Point System
Below is the objective assessment of the 13 criteria based on the current data.
(Score: 1 point for Bullish, 1 point for Bearish, 0 for Neutral/Mixed)
| # | Indicator | Status | Bearish | Bullish | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Price & volume profile & FVG | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Price is stagnating at the bottom of the profile with massive Bearish FVGs above it. |
| 2. | Liquidations (Coin & Global) | Bullish | 0 | 1 | After a heavy long flush, we are now mainly seeing small short liquidations (green bars). |
| 3. | Power trades (Coin & Global) | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Historically heavy selling pressure (red bars) still dominates the chart. |
| 4. | Supply & demand zones | Neutral | 0 | 0 | Price is trapped between the $67k demand zone and the $69k supply zone. |
| 5. | CVD & momentum | Bearish | 1 | 0 | The CVD line exhibits a strong and continuous downward trend. |
| 6. | Open interest & funding | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Declining Open Interest combined with price weakness indicates a lack of underlying support. |
| 7. | Trend 1 | Neutral | 0 | 0 | Symmetrical Triangle is a neutral compression pattern (LH + HL). |
| 8. | EMA | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Price is trading below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs with bearish crosses. |
| 9. | Fibonacci | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Price ($68,017) is currently failing below the 23.6% retracement level ($68,950). |
| 10. | npoc | Neutral | 0 | 0 | The live price is balancing exactly on the Naked Point of Control (NPOC) at $68,018. |
| 11. | smc | Bearish | 1 | 0 | Macro structure has been taken over by bears (ChoCH to the downside). |
| 12. | trend (duplicate) | Neutral | 0 | 0 | Same pattern as point 7. Compression without a clear breakout direction. |
| 13. | vwap | Neutral | 0 | 0 | Trapped between Monthly/Daily VWAP (Resistance) and Weekly VWAP (Support). |
Final Conclusion & Calculation
- Total directional points: 8 (5 criteria are neutral/0 points)
- Bullish points: 1
- Bearish points: 7
Result:
- Bullish %: 1 / 8 ≈ 12.5%
- Bearish %: 7 / 8 ≈ 87.5%
The data paints an overwhelmingly bearish picture (87.5%). Although the price is finding local support on the Weekly VWAP and a demand zone (resulting in the current compression), the overall control clearly lies with the sellers given the rejection below the macro EMAs, the declining CVD, and the heavy overhead supply.
Based on the orderflow, volume profile, and market structure from your screenshots, the price is currently heavily compressed within a Symmetrical Triangle, wedged exactly between a demand zone ($67k) and a supply zone ($69k).
Here is the objective breakdown of what exactly needs to happen in the orderflow and price action for either the bullish or bearish scenario to play out.
📉 The Bearish Scenario (
Read the full article and charts on:
https://aitraderview.com/2026/02/22/data-driven-technical-analysis-anticipating-the-next-impulse-move-for-bitcoin/
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