My first novice theory
Hey guys, I have recently gotten into the realm of game theory with current world conflicts after growing up with a major conspiracy theory family who turned out to be right. I’m interested in hearing some opinions (I’m from New Zealand) and I’m focusing more in terms of predicting financial shifts
So current Iran-us war, I think Iran defends itself, US dollar collapses in terms of world currency (2-6 years) leading to an increase in oil production in Australia and New Zealand as most of our imported oil will become even more expensive than the rest of the world due to distance (1-2 years) I also think current renewable energy companies particularly in New Zealand where they make up a significant portion of the market grow in value tremendously by the end of this year as conflict escalates.
Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to become involved in this conflict in any significant military way as the risk of china becoming involved with Iran would and the common knowledge that the us is munted would mean that if we got involved in a military way it would ruin our ability to recover by diplomacy with china after the conflict ends + our military size and the distance is just unpractical and in general on this part of the world physical international conflict is very unwanted by most of the general population.
This then drags to china who’s focusing on building a gold backed currency, yuan becomes new default currency as most countries even ones partial to the us and capitalism at this point still deal significantly with china and are in a suitable positions to switch, this especially applies to NZ and Australia who already are very open to china and adored by the general Chinese population who tour here frequently. Leading to a general stabilisation in the pacific markets but potentially an increase in real estate un affordability in these markets as generally we make it quite easy for them to purchase here already, we do however see an increase in revenue from foreign students as although it’s likely to become cheaper for Chinese students to study here they will most likely choose Australia as the primary English based country to study at in lieu of the us as the education has high quality and business is close between the two countries already.
As the conflict drags on and the US faces pharmaceutical shortages I expect to see pharmaceuticals companies in Oceania boost in production and revenue particuarly in the event china becomes involved in the conflict in any capacity which I expect to occur and occur initially through suspending/raising prices of its major exports to us which focuses on pharmaceuticals.
Then we look into Taiwan, I expect it to fall to china in 2027. I don’t think china cares about seizing the semiconductor companies for themselves, I think they would just destroy them if they had to, this means Chinese semiconductor manufacturers that are currently seeing massive growth from the government will grow in value massively late 2027, same for European based companies as well, intel will also increase in value massively as it will be the US’s main lifeline into trying to maintain technological dominance though I expect technological dominance and gold to now power the domination of the Chinese yuan for the rest of probably most of our lives.
At the end of this conflict, the US is humiliated and exhausted though likely intact. Most of its major industries rely on the strength of its dollar but what doesn’t is its agricultural exports, of which include soybeans and corn to china, with the dominance of the yuan I expect the US to seek to protect the value of its agricultural exports while they try to diversify its fledgling industries. China is now the global superpower and the main buyer of these commodities and I expect they will want to reduce the price of these commodities as much as possible not just for money but to hinder the us’ ability to recover through diversification by forcing the to spend more money on the agricultural section to increase volume to keep revenue up, this means despite a general market collapse in 4+ years I expect all us soybean and corn companies to be very good long term investments as well as any dry carry export companies that are US based.
I don’t see it likely tha the US will ever end up selling any of its military technology as it will never give up trying to maintain its global image of dominance under the current system and people running it.
Then we get to my final prediction, in every major currency shift throughout history there has always been a new country to take over, however something is different this time, bitcoin. Perceived by most to be a scam, it’s the only truly decentralized currency with no ability to be seized by any government and with an ability to be completely protected by an individual. Many major banks have significant holdings of bitcoin already, I expect when the USD collapses which is currently the most major market of bitcoin buyers, btc will experience a drop in value (3-4 years) but as people notice the stability it’s provided to the countries that have significant holdings in it and more countries buy it as a part of its reserves it will rapidly be recognised as the most secure and safe form of asset akin to gold and will experience the greatest growth it’s ever had before rapidly stabilising (9-12 years) and eventually possibly even becoming the basis of a global currency system (20+ years).
So at the moment my financial direction is as follows based on my predictions
\- significant portion of investments into NZ/AUS Oil/renewable/energy
\- moderate portion of investments into NZ/AUS pharmaceuticals
\- minor portion of investments into NZ/AUS/US/GLOBAL efts
\- minor portion of investments into Intel/european semiconductor manufacturers/Chinese semiconductor manufacturers
\- minor portion of investments into Swiss franc/yuan
\- minor portion of investments into bitcoin
\- minor portion of investments into us soybean manufacturers/us or global agricultural freight companies that move product to china.
Towards the end of this year depending on how the conflict has escalated and if I’m feeling good about it all still I will probably maintain the same investments but adjust the skew of funds
Any opinions on this prediction? It’s my first time trying to do something like this in detail
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