Sunday, April 18, 2021

Puzzle Pieces - The Financial Story of our time - Speculation on financial events and news.

This will be my quickest attempt at telling the story from my perspective.

I will be crossposting this to as many subreddits that will allow this kind of post. - sorry in advanced if I violate your sub's rules.

This is a collection of news articles and my speculation on the matters at hand.

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The Story:

  1. Michael Burry warns us of a market crash along with Harry Dent and others. Brining up issues with corporate and international bond markets and the need for deleveraging with instutional investing.
  2. Gamestop and AMC communities believe that short sellers have not covered their positions leading to the The Mother of All Short Squeezes
  3. u/atobitt does some amazing research and writes these brilliant posts outlining Citadel Securities's strategy of Naked Short Selling. See also The Everything Short, BlackRock Bagholders, and Walkin' Like a Duck Talkin' Like a Duck. ... if you don't believe in naked short selling I would like to recommend this documentary.
  4. Archegos is margin called - suggesting the existance of high leverage in the markets and the need, or inevitably of deleveraging which beings to validate (1) mentioned above.
  5. Huarong Asset Mgmt, a Chinese gov't backed "bad loan" company - dealing in USD based bonds - fails to report 2020 earnings, the stock price plummets, the CEO was EXECUTED on charges of Bribery and Bigamy. This points toward trouble with corporate and interantional bonds (1).
  6. Last week, Three Major Banks in the US set new records in Bond Sales. - my personal speculation is that they've just secured their lifeboat by selling off bad bonds and have made someone else the bag holder - I have no evidence for this yet.
  7. On Friday, two very suspicious tweets go out. 1) by OTCLawyers claiming a Class Action against an unnamed Clearinghourse. and 2) by FXHedge claiming Charges against institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrency.
  8. My personal favorite - Following these tweets which went out Thurs and Fri respectively, Citadel Securities was spotted with the lights on all night last night. I highly recommend the movie Margin Call to help understand why this activity seems so suspicious. This seems to help confer (2) and (3) to varying degrees.
  9. During these hours we saw BTC drop 20% or so in a matter of minutes - followed by an overnight dumping of cryptocurrencies across the board. u/simplelifestyle believes it's due to Chinese power outages. But I can't help feeling like a price drop of this magnitude is definitely due to Whales liquidating their assets.

While I've definitely excluded months of my own research which would help fill in the gaps between these articles, my belief is that all these events are little pieces of the puzzle. It's starts with a finacial system that was not fixed after the '08 crash, which leads to the events above, and ultimately will lead into one of the strangest financial happenings of this generation. I believe there will be a MOASS and a market crash. I do not know what comes after.

This is not financial advice.

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