1. Recap - What moved the market
Bitcoin traded between $69.3k and $65.7k last week.
Key Drivers
- President Trump´s address to the nation unexpectedly did not deescalate on the middle east conflict leading to sharp market swings
- US Job report stronger than expected amid rising inflation concerns, lowering expectations of additional rate cuts by the federal reserve within this year
Market context
- Since last week´s CME Futures open, no significant high or low has been broken on the 4-hour timeframe BTC chart, suggesting a potential "calm before the storm" environment
- Stocks and Oil show a significant negative correlation, reaching levels last seen in February 2022
2. Outlook - Scenarios & Key Levels
Bullish Scenario
The $65k level has been pivotal over the last couple of weeks. So far, bears have not managed to decisively break the local support, indicating a retest of resistance around the $70k level remains possible even within a larger bearish structure. Since the recent local low, price formed higher lows, showing first impulsive strength. A true sign of strength requires the bulls to break resistance decisively, ideally even the $72k swing high. On the 2-week time frame, the Coinglass "liquidation heatmap" currently puts the bears at risk with significant short liquidation clusters in the $70k as well as in the $72k region. Further confluence for this scenario can be found in the Spot CVD indicator which shows a decent uptrend since the 31st of March. The Cumulative Volume Delta shows the net difference between market buying and selling. Are the bulls on the verge of a comeback?
Bearish Scenario
The chart structure since the ~$76k high on March 17 indicates that bears are still in control of the market. So far, every major bullish effort has been sold into. The next major bearish structural target could be the February swing lows around $62k. Additional confluence comes from the 90-day "liquidation map", which shows a high-density cluster of positions in that region. The quiet week moved the RSI indicator on the 4-hour time frame from oversold territory back into neutral and the series of higher lows on the lower time frames allowed new long leverage to build up. Will the bears be able to break the key support around $65k decisively?
3. Bitunix Trader Takeaway
Low volatility often precedes expansion. Given the significant liquidity build-up below the recent lows as well as above the recent highs, liquidity grabs may occur before a decisive move plays out. Statistically speaking, BTC tends to pivot between Monday and Wednesday within the week. This combination can provide excellent risk-to-reward opportunities for potential reversal setups. Beyond crypto, the (negative) correlations between different assets (such as oil and US stock indices) and the amount of recent swings provide interesting hedge opportunities.
With basically new headlines every day producing sharp market swings, risk management remains key. Especially when using tight stop losses for trading setups, before focusing on profits, ask yourself: "What am I willing to lose to find out I´m wrong?".
4. Panthi´s Watchlist
- Key Events: Fed meeting minutes (Wednesday), Inflation Data (Thursday and Friday)
- "Trump Deadline": Regarding the middle east conflict, the President has announced an important Deadline for Tuesday, 8.00 P.M. ET. Based on similar recent events, these deadlines often times are preempted e.g. by deferrals or announcement of on-going negotiations, adding confluence to the market potentially pivoting early in the week
5. Community Poll (Link in the comment section)
Do you expect expansion this week for BTC?
- Yes, breakout incoming
- Yes, but first a liquidity sweep
- No, we´ll keep ranging
