TL;DR position: CAD$32k Bitcoin Jan 2026 LEAP call YOLO. Ticker BTCC.B. 30x if bitcoin hits 150k USD, breakeven point when BTC is USD$ 40000-45000. TFSA account, so all profits will be tax free.
About me
I am a bitcoin maxi and very bullish for bitcoin's future. I first learned about bitcoin in 2013 and have mined bitcoin/dogecoin on my gpu back in 2013, and have held various amounts of bitcoin, eth, and alts over the years. At this point I only own and trade in bitcoin.
Background
Bitcoin price since inception, log scale
Every 10 minutes, when a miner mines a block of bitcoin, they currently receive: 6.25 btc block reward + transaction fees from the transactions included in the block. There is a halving event approx every 4 years, and the last 2021, 2017, 2013 bull markets have always come after a bitcoin halving. The next bitcoin halving, where the block reward goes from 6.25 -> 3.125 btc, is expected to occur on Apr 24, 2024.
BTCC is a Canadian bitcoin spot ETF https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-etf with 1% management fee, and has been tracking bitcoin well since the etf launched in Feb 2021.
BTC vs BTCC.B % since BTCC.B was introduced in 2021
The Play
There will be a bitcoin halving at the end of Apr 2024. My belief is that bitcoin prices will be cyclical, and the halving will be around the start of a crypto bull market, like before.
performance of bitcoin since each halving
The last bull runs have been mostly driven up by retail demand. People who are still invested in bitcoin at this moment are already heavily invested and do not have much extra cash to spare to invest. There needs to be new money entering the market.
Currently, the vast majority of people and wealthy still see bitcoin as a risky asset, and they have not truly started to invest in bitcoin. Bitcoin will become more accessible, reduce friction, and people's perspectives will start to change. Also, with blackrock and other spot ETFs launching and with more cryptocurrency cases in court, bitcoin and cryptocurrency have become more and more legitimate. This bull market, I believe that the groups driving up bitcoin price will be wealthy individuals, companies, and countries.
My price targets for the next bull market is min 100000, base 150000, bull 250000. I think several factors with contribute to this bull market:
- US spot ETF launch (blackrock), allowing companies and individuals to own bitcoin with minimal friction. Also legitimizes bitcoin for rest of the industry and people, and subdues a lot of doubt for onlookers globally.
- Struggling countries with high inflation around the world and the start of the era of de-dollarization
- FOMO on a global scale -- come for the greed, stay for the revolution.
In the past, the maximum was hit with an average of around 1 year 5 months after halving. The farthest call option currently available is for Jan 2026, or 1 year and 8 months after halving. So I have around 3 months of leeway, assuming that the next bull cycle will be similar previous ones. Looking at the chart, it looks like the rate of the cycle is accelerating a little bit.
The optiosn are american style options, so they can be exercised at any time before expiry. I plan to sell all the options without exercising if possible -- the strike price 8 option currently has >4.5k open interest so I don't think liquidity will be too big of an issue.
Position ($CAD)
TFSA account -- any profits will be tax free
Option 1: 51x strike price 7, premium 0.78 (breakeven point CAD$7.78 ~ BTC USD$39500)
Option 2: 395x strike price 8, premium 0.71 (breakeven point CAD$8.71 -- BTC USD$44500)
Total cost: 32021
Approx profits and multiplier
| Bitcoin Price (USD) | Total Profit | Multiplier | # BTC |
|---------------------|--------------|------------|----------|
| $45,000 | $72,002 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| $47,500 | $88,712 | 2.77 | 1.87 |
| $50,000 | $105,422 | 3.29 | 2.11 |
| $60,000 | $161,075 | 5.03 | 2.68 |
| $75,000 | $284,360 | 8.88 | 3.79 |
| $100,000 | $516,195 | 16.13 | 5.16 |
| $150,000 | $954,570 | 29.81 | 6.36 |
| $200,000 | $1,392,945 | 43.52 | 6.96 |
| $250,000 | $1,831,320 | 57.19 | 7.33 |
| $300,000 | $2,269,695 | 70.86 | 7.57 |
| $600,000 | $4,811,890 | 150.29 | 8.02 |
| $1,000,000 | $8,337,000 | 260.40 | 8.34 |
If I were to buy BTC today for the cost of the options, I would hold 0.86 BTC. With these options, I plan to sell 90-95% of the options between when btc is 100000-250000 and re-buy real bitcoin for the call options I sold at a lower price, and keep some profits for diversification. The remaining 5-10% of options will be kept in case this turns out to be a super cycle and goes to the moon. I imagine I will end up with 6-6.5 worth of BTC if things go well
EDIT: Forgot to mention, these call options are heavily discounted compared to other available stocks like MSTR. I believe the entity selling these call options are actually Purpose Investments themselves for BTCY, their bitcoin yield ETF which generates yield selling covered calls on a portion of their BTCC.B shares https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-yield-etf
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