Sunday, May 25, 2025

Bitcoin conference this week?

I'm super into crypto and I run a marketing agency and I looked at the prices for the bitcoin conference and I might pull the trigger, but I've only lived in Vegas for the past two years and if anyone is interested in meeting up to go to the bitcoin conference this week let me know? If you guys know of any parties or special events, let me know. Love the underground stuff.

Celebrate Pizza Day with Bitget

https://i.redd.it/9ecwhp5mc03f1.png

Crypto Options Pulse - Defensive Hedges & Sky-High Calls (May 24, 2025)

In the dynamic world of crypto options, each day sees traders balancing caution with ambition. May 24, 2025 was a prime example of this balancing act on PowerTrade: even as some players aggressively hedged against near-term risks, others reached for explosive upside in key tokens. From big defensive put plays to bold out-of-the-money call bets, today’s session showcased the crypto market’s mix of prudence and speculation. Let’s dive into the highlights:

Bitcoin (BTC): One-Sided Call Frenzy at Lofty Levels 🚀

Bitcoin’s recent climb into lofty price territory kept traders busy with options. Roughly $2.5 million in BTC options volume changed hands today — and virtually all of it was in calls, as bullish bets dominated while put activity was nearly nonexistent. Traders showed striking confidence at these high levels:

Bold Upside Wager: A notable large trade saw 20 contracts of BTC $111,500 calls (expiring May 26) traded at a premium of ~$200 each (≈$2.16M notional). This eye-catching transaction — effectively a bet on further short-term upside — could be a bold speculative play or an institutional call overwrite to earn premium. Either way, it underscores intense focus on BTC’s near-term breakout potential.
Lack of New Hedges: Unlike earlier in the week, there was scant put buying on BTC today. The absence of fresh downside hedges suggests traders felt little immediate need for protection, implying confidence that BTC can sustain its high levels without a sharp pullback in the very short term.
Open Interest Tilt: Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) remains call-heavy (~59% calls), reflecting a market skewed toward upside exposure. The largest chunk of BTC OI sits in the upcoming May 30 expiry and in longer-dated quarter-end contracts, signaling that traders have significant positions both in the weekly timeframe and heading into the summer — a mix of short-term gambits and longer-range strategic bets.

Bitcoin’s one-sided call frenzy today highlights a cautiously optimistic sentiment: market players are comfortably riding BTC’s momentum, chasing further gains with calls while showing little urgency to insure against downside.

Ethereum (ETH): Puts Prevail as Traders Brace for Turbulence 😰

Ethereum saw a defensive posture take center stage. Of the roughly $3.1 million in ETH options volume, an overwhelming ~95% flowed into puts, dwarfing call activity. Traders appeared to be bracing for near-term volatility or a potential pullback after ETH’s recent strength:

Institutional-Size Hedges: In a standout move, an institutional player snapped up a large block of short-dated puts. Specifically, about 800 contracts of ETH $2540 strike puts expiring May 26 were bought in two swift trades, totaling roughly $2.0M in notional value. This aggressive purchase of downside protection — just as the expiry looms — is a classic signal of major players seeking shelter against a sudden swing or downturn in ETH’s price.
Bearish Skew in Positioning: Such pronounced put buying tipped ETH’s overall positioning firmly bearish for the short term. Open interest in ETH is now skewed ~63% toward puts, and much of it sits in the immediate May 26 expiry and the end-of-quarter June contracts. This indicates many traders (likely including pros) are hedging actively, preparing for potential turbulence even as ETH’s longer-term fundamentals remain bullish.

Ethereum’s options activity paints a picture of caution: traders are proactively hedging and “buying insurance” for the near term. While ETH’s uptrend isn’t necessarily in doubt, the heavy put demand shows a market on guard for a pullback or surge in volatility in the days ahead.

Binance Coin (BNB): Straddling the Range with Calls & Puts 🎯

BNB cracked the top of today’s volume charts with about $0.48M in options traded, and interestingly, it featured a balanced mix of calls and puts. Traders appear to be positioning around BNB’s current price range, setting up for a potential breakout in either direction:

Strangle Strategies at Key Strikes: A significant portion of BNB trades clustered around the $640 put and $680 call strikes (for expiries on May 30 and the week after). Traders were actively trading both calls and puts in size at these strikes — a telltale sign of strangle or risk-reversal strategies. This positioning suggests that market makers and savvy traders are hedging or speculating on a big move outside roughly the $640–$680 zone, which brackets BNB’s recent trading range.
Expiry Focus — Month-End Move: The bulk of BNB’s open interest (~$856K notional) is parked in the May 30 weekly expiry, with a roughly 2:1 call-to-put ratio in OI. This call-heavy tilt (about 67% calls by notional OI) shows a slight bullish bias among BNB option holders. In plain terms, many are expecting BNB to make a decisive move by month’s end, and more are betting that move will be up rather than down.

The two-way flow in BNB — with traders buying protection and upside simultaneously — indicates an interesting equilibrium. BNB traders are hedged but hopeful: prepared for a break from consolidation, yet leaning bullish on the token’s prospects as the new week approaches.

Solana (SOL): Bullish Follow-Through After a Tactical Pivot 🌅

Solana, a popular altcoin for traders, saw approximately $0.7M in volume today exclusively in calls, marking a continuation of the bullish shift we observed recently. Earlier in the week, SOL traders dramatically pivoted from bearish to bullish, and today’s action reinforced that upbeat sentiment:

Call Buying Momentum: The highlight was a large purchase of SOL calls at the $175.5 strike (expiring May 25 the very next day). This chunk of call buying signals that traders are doubling down on short-term upside for SOL, perhaps expecting a favorable move or news imminently. The fact that these calls were so near expiry — essentially a 24-hour bet — underscores high conviction (or risk tolerance) for a quick jump in SOL’s price.
Positioning Out to Quarter-End: Looking at open interest, Solana’s OI stands around $652K (notional), and interestingly it is concentrated in the June 27 expiry (the end of Q2). A significant portion of this OI is in put contracts, indicating that while near-term trading has turned bullish, some medium-term hedges remain in place. It appears some traders are bullish on SOL’s immediate prospects but still holding insurance for the longer haul, which is a prudent play given crypto’s notorious volatility.

Solana’s options activity suggests a market riding a wave of renewed optimism. After shedding bearish bets, traders are confidently positioning for further upside in the short run. At the same time, the remaining hedge positions point to a healthy respect for risk — a sign of growing maturity among SOL traders who are optimistic but not complacent.

Meme Coins & Newcomers: Speculative Interest Stewing 🐾

Even on a relatively quiet day for meme coins in terms of trades, speculative fervor remains evident in the open interest of certain high-risk alt options. Traders are keeping significant positions in play on these names, poised for explosive moves should volatility strike:

KAS (KAS10000): An emerging project that has climbed up the ranks — KAS now boasts roughly $2.16M in open interest, placing it among the top few underlyings by OI. Intriguingly, all of this OI is in call options (with virtually no puts), largely centered on the June 27 expiry. This suggests a cohort of traders are placing bullish long-shot bets on KAS, anticipating a major rally by the end of Q2. Such one-sided call positioning is a hallmark of speculative optimism on a newer coin.
TRUMP (TRUMP100): This meme coin favorite still commands about $1.26M in OI, despite little trading volume today. The OI is split between calls and puts, but notably most of it sits in the imminent May 30 expiry. This indicates that traders are heavily speculating on a near-term move for TRUMP — and they’re divided on direction, with some positioning for a spike higher (calls) and others hedging or betting on a drop (puts). The intense focus on the current week’s expiry hints at a binary event or simply the thrill of short-term gamble on this volatile token.
Others to Watch: Smaller meme tokens and niche alts like HYPE100 and WIF1000 also retain pockets of open interest (well into the five-figure range). These saw flurries of call buying recently — e.g. traders snapped up cheap OTM calls at ambitious strike levels. While their OI is modest compared to TRUMP or KAS, it shows the speculative spirit is very much alive across the board. Traders remain willing to punt on these high-risk names for potentially high-reward payoffs.

This sustained interest in meme coin and newcomer options underlines the market’s risk appetite. Even when trade volumes are low, the open interest tells a story — many traders are keeping their speculative positions live, waiting for the next jolt of volatility to potentially deliver outsized gains.

Market Sentiment: A Cautious Optimism 🤔

Across the crypto options landscape today, we see a fascinating blend of bullish enthusiasm and cautious hedging. On one hand, upbeat bets on further upside — especially the call-heavy action in BTC, SOL and others — show that many traders are optimistic and in “risk-on” mode, eager to capitalize on any rallies. On the other hand, substantial protective positioning — exemplified by the heavy ETH put buying — reveals a concurrent desire to manage downside risk in the face of uncertainty.

This dual approach speaks to a maturing market mindset: participants are leveraging options not just to speculate, but also to safeguard their portfolios. Short-term weekly expiries remain extremely popular for tactical plays, while significant open interest at quarterly and even early-2026 expiries hints at strategic longer-term views (often a sign of institutional involvement). The prevailing sentiment could be characterized as cautious optimism — traders are leaning bullish, but not without protection. It’s a market positioning for upside potential, yet prepared for surprises. In crypto, that nuanced stance is often the smartest play.

Ready to Seize the Opportunity? ⚡

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Harness the power of options to manage your risk like a pro and ride the crypto waves to potential profits. Happy trading, and see you on PowerTrade!

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Market Briefing for 2025-05-24

Market Overview

Tech sector volatility drove major equity themes, with large-cap technology stocks reacting sharply to shifting tariff policy, insider transactions, and soaring AI competition. Heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and the threat of sweeping new tariffs unsettled global markets, fueling defensive rotations and weighing on consumer and industrial names. Energy and select industrials benefitted from U.S. policy initiatives, while solar and consumer staples lagged on regulatory risk and policy shocks.
![SPX500 momentum](https://haru-insights-charts-2.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/seasonality/tickers/%5Espx/%5Espx-105.png)

Global Macro

Bitcoin faced turbulent trading, sliding 4 % as risk appetites waned amid escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, offset by fresh signs of institutional participation such as Semler Scientific's notable purchase. The pending inclusion of Coinbase (COIN) in the S&P 500 further strengthened the narrative of crypto assets’ growing mainstream legitimacy, signaling a gradual integration of digital assets into traditional finance.

Sector Performance

Technology: 2 - Somewhat negative
Financials: 3 - Neutral
Healthcare: 4 - Somewhat positive
Industrials: 4 - Somewhat positive
Consumer Discretionary: 2 - Somewhat negative
Communication Services: 3 - Neutral
Energy: 4 - Somewhat positive
Utilities: 2 - Somewhat negative
Real Estate: 2 - Somewhat negative
Materials: 4 - Somewhat positive

Sector News

Technology

Apple (AAPL): Rocked by new AI competition following OpenAI’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup and U.S. tariff threats, sparking a 4 % pre-market drop as shipments to the U.S. hit a decade low; strategic pressures mount from both regulatory and competitive fronts.
Analog Devices (ADI): Analysts issued mixed messages—JPMorgan reaffirmed a bullish $300 target, but UBS trimmed its target citing automotive and export headwinds; concerns about demand softness and competitive AI opportunities clouded outlook.
Autodesk (ADSK): Received price target upgrades after a strong beat on revenue (16 % YoY) and robust guidance for FY26, though broad macro volatility and AI sector competition temper enthusiasm.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Noteworthy recovery prospects as major hedge fund increased its stake, offsetting lingering concerns from a 31 % stock slide and a hefty $1.5 bn China export hit; new buyback and solid data center growth position AMD for AI-related upside.
Arista Networks (ANET): Analysts flagged a 25 % overvaluation, despite forecasted 52 % earnings growth; investors counseled to await a correction before entry.
Broadcom (AVGO): Heavy insider selling (over $121 mn) from the board chair, with no insider purchases, eroded market confidence and invited speculation on future valuation.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS): Surged 22 % in three months powered by strong return on equity, but long-term growth lags industry benchmarks, prompting relative caution.
Cloudflare (NET): Spike in insider selling, absence of purchases, and muted near-term stock performance fueled investor anxiety on insider sentiment.
Dynatrace (DT): Solid full-year results, with 19 % revenue growth and 213 % net income jump; however, the outlook for slightly below-industry growth kept enthusiasm muted.
Intuit (INTU): Beat expectations in Q3 (15 % revenue growth), strong price target upgrades, and positive price action while peers faltered.
Microsoft (MSFT): Gained after FTC cleared its $69 bn Activision Blizzard deal; involvement in OpenAI’s ambitious AI hardware plans adds optionality as sector competition intensifies.
Nvidia (NVDA): Maintained sector leadership on forecast-defying 78 % revenue growth, but heightened competitive risks from AMD and regulatory uncertainty over China exports draw scrutiny ahead of the earnings event.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Notched 39 % sales growth amid a $1.4 tn TAM narrative; sky-high P/E of 546 and executive share sales prompted caution on valuation.
Salesforce (CRM): All eyes on impending Q1 report as the firm contends with sluggish AI rollout and a 20 % YTD stock decline, with near-term sector sentiment at stake.

Financials

BlackRock (BLK): Increased exposure to AI chip startups, signaling deepening interest among major institutions and potentially influencing sector valuations.
Goldman Sachs (GS): Warned of market volatility as trade policy uncertainty and tariff risks resurface.

Healthcare

Gilead Sciences (GILD): Strong readout for Trodelvy in phase 3 metastatic breast cancer study boosted stock 6 %, but secondary survival endpoints remain immature ahead of ASCO updates.
GSK plc (GSK): U.S. and EU regulatory wins for key specialty drugs and a 4.9 % recent share gain outperformed the broad sector, restoring optimism for its product pipeline.

Industrials

John Deere (DE): Announced acquisition of Sentera to enhance digital agri-tech capabilities; optimism tempered by high valuation concerns and tariff headwinds.
MasTec (MTZ): Posted an impressive 289 % stock gain over five years, but a recent dip and flagged warning signs suggest near-term caution.

Consumer Discretionary

Deckers Outdoor (DECK): Downgraded by Evercore ISI, collapsed nearly 20 % after weak growth guidance; macro and tariff uncertainty exacerbated risk-off mood.
Nike (NKE): Bill Ackman’s significant buying amid a 50 % drawdown renewed hopes for a turnaround, potentially reversing negative sentiment.
Ross Stores (ROST): Plunged nearly 11 % on earnings miss, lowered outlook, and cited tariff risks squeezing margins.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM): Fell 9.2 % for the week following slowing net income and revenue growth forecasts below sector averages.

Energy

Constellation Energy (CEG): Poised to benefit from executive orders facilitating faster nuclear permitting; potential gains offset by environmental regulatory scrutiny.
Chevron (CVX): Received a narrow license for Venezuelan operations—limits new investment but preserves maintenance ability amid U.S. sanctions.
Cameco (CCJ): Continued rally on sharp earnings turnaround and strong uranium production, although U.S. tariff risk moderates upside outlook.

Materials

U.S. Steel (X): Shares soared 21 % after Trump approved its merger with Nippon Steel, expected to add 70,000 jobs and inject $14 bn into the economy, though future trade policy volatility tempers long-term views.

Utilities

Enphase Energy (ENPH): Under severe pressure after U.S. House passed a bill to eliminate rooftop solar tax credits—potential for another 18 % sectoral demand decline threatens business model. /SolarEdge (SEDG): Impacted by the same policy risk, signaling acute market contraction and regulatory exposure for residential solar companies.

Other Major News

Coinbase (COIN): Selected for inclusion in the S&P 500, marking a significant step in the mainstreaming of crypto assets on Wall Street.
Disney (DIS): Filed a lawsuit against YouTube, escalating the battle for media platform dominance and raising the stakes in content/partnership disputes that could reshape streaming market competition.
Mastercard (MA) & Visa (V): Both face renewed scrutiny from European regulators over payment network fees, bringing the risk of fines up to 10 % of annual revenues and potentially upending business models.

Connections & Insights

Insight: Trade war rhetoric, especially targeted tariffs on tech and manufacturing giants, is creating sector-wide volatility—pressuring supply chains, triggering insider selling, and compounding competitive challenges in both tech and consumer sectors.

Insight: The growing integration of traditional financial companies into the crypto ecosystem—evidenced by Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion and institutional BTC purchases—signals the beginning of mainstream acceptance, which could spur further institutional allocations if volatility and regulatory clarity improve.

Insight: The solar sector is increasingly exposed to legislative risk; the prospect of rescinded tax credits is triggering broad market reevaluations of U.S.-centric clean energy leaders, with ripple effects likely across renewables investment.

Kalshi Adds Solana Support as Fourth Crypto Deposit Option

US prediction market Kalshi just expanded its crypto payment options - SOL joins the party alongside USDC, BTC, and WLD.

What's New:

Solana deposits now accepted via SOL-supported wallets
Fourth crypto option after USDC, Bitcoin, and Worldcoin
Powered by Zero Hash infrastructure partnership

Why Crypto Deposits Matter:

$500k deposit limit (vs lower traditional banking limits)
Immediate access to funds (no banking delays)
Faster funding for time-sensitive prediction markets

Kalshi's Growing Reach:

CFTC-regulated prediction platform
Covers sports, politics, news, global events
Recent Robinhood partnership for prediction markets
Available across all 50 US states

The Timing: SOL currently trading at $181.67 (+0.98%) with $7.9B daily volume - solid momentum for the addition.

The Strategy: Adding Solana makes sense:

Large, active user base
Fast, cheap transactions
Growing DeFi ecosystem
Appeals to crypto-native traders

Competition Factor: Kalshi vs Polymarket heating up - more crypto payment options = more user acquisition from the decentralized prediction market space.

Bottom Line: Kalshi's clearly going hard after crypto users with multiple token support and higher limits. Smart move as prediction markets explode in popularity and crypto users want seamless on-ramps.

Four different crypto deposit options shows they're serious about capturing the crypto prediction market crowd.

SOL at $181.67, up 0.98% as it joins Kalshi's supported assets

How bad can it get when crypto goes POOF?

Right now there is about 3 trillion market cap in crypto, which is making a lot of people feel significantly richer than they are. supposing crypto market cap goes to near zero, I do not think there has ever been a wealth destruction event like that ever in the history of markets. I think it could have significant impacts on the global economy, causing a very real financial crisis.

AI is probably in a bubble as well, there are very obvious stocks at the very least which are beyond reason, such as tesla and Palantir.

These seem to be a staple in the modern portfolio, and could contribute to an even greater loss of the wealth effect.

the wealth effect would further deteriorate as multiple compression occurs across the board in a bear market.

A lot of people will probably pile on here saying that crypto wont go to zero, but factually there is only one use for blockchain technology right now and that would be a CBDC. CBDC would not have anything to do with the current coins which are being treated as ponzi schemes, and would not be related to the likes of tether or USDC. As matter of fact tether and USDC would likely stop existing as liquidity for them would dry up in an event where there is no coins to gamble on outside of them.

Is the next great financial crisis going to play out something like this? and when will it occur? Historically in great bubbles they were nearing an end when political figures were stoking the fire for personal gain. It is not hard to see this playing out right now. A lot of people find comfort that there is greater acceptance of crypto, but in fact it is a sign that the party is nearing its end. History rhymes.

EDIT: I have responded a lot in here, I think that I have clarified a few things with people and would like to change my wording above. Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme, it is closer to a pyramid scheme or pump and dump. Not much more to add by responding to new comments, they all seem to be along the same lines. Either you understand or you dont, and I dont have more time to explain ;)