Welcome to the...
Midweek Update!
Included in this update are the following sections:
- Midweek Recap
- Impact Calendar
- Rate Price Index
- Mortgage Spreads
- Rate Lock Guide
- Stock Markets (5-Day)
- Crypto Markets (7-Day)
- Precious Metals (5-Day)
Shop real-time mortgage rates anonymously and get instant qualification results at LendZen.com
MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
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The December Non-Farm Payroll report (November data) was originally due last week but was rescheduled to yesterday (Tuesday).
Inflation, employment, and The Fed make up my “Big 3” market movers.
- Inflation (CPI/PCE)
- The Fed (FOMC/Minutes)
- Employment (NFP/ADP)
Despite the hope that a softening labor market would push mortgage rates back to the October lows, the NFP data was a mixed bag that only nudged bond prices slightly higher.
Read more in yesterday’s “Rate Snapshot” Reddit post.
Today was even more uneventful, with a mostly flat session for all sectors, although crypto continues to lose ground while precious metals have taken over as the preferred hedge.
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Bond markets have been unimpressed with recent econ data, but inflation looms
IMPACT CALENDAR 🗓️
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This is a double whammy week with another Big 3 data set on deck tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
This is the last major report before investors likely completely check out for the year.
However, if this week does prove uneventful, and we continue to trend sideways into the new year, there should still be a collective sigh of relief.
Finishing off the month unscathed will put 2025 as the best year for mortgage rates since 2020.
Read more in the Rate Price Index section below.
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Mortgage Rate Impact Calendar DEC 15 - 19 (THU)
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
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Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
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- 24-Hour: +1 bps (+$13 per $100K)
- 5-Day: +4 bps ($40)
- 10-Day: +1 bps ($8)
- 30-Day: -21 bps (-$207)
- 60-Day: -25 bps (-$248)
Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com
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LendZen Index Last 10-Days (December 17, 2025)
LendZen Index September 17, 2024 – December 12, 2025
Since peaking on January 16, mortgage rate PRICES have declined by over 300 basis points.
That means the cost of getting a $500k mortgage (regardless of rate) is $15,000 cheaper today than at the start of the year.
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
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Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
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- Dec 11: 1.02
- Dec 17: 1.00
- 24h: 0 bps
- 5d: -2 bps
- 12m Avg: 1.23
- YoY: -27 bps
Learn more about the importance of accurately calculating spreads on this Reddit post.
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LMTS Spread (Inverted) + 10-Year Treasury Note
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 86 🔴
NFP failed to meaningfully help bonds and CPI risk is now concentrated into a single release. Short-term lock risk inches higher as the window narrows.
[ 30 Days ] — 69 🟠
With CPI tomorrow’s wild card, there’s little buffer left before year-end. Any upside inflation surprise would be difficult to recover from in this timeframe.
[ 45 Days ] — 59 🟡
The medium-to-longer-term window is steady, but direction hinges on whether CPI confirms or disrupts the disinflation narrative.
[ 60 Days ] — 46 🟡
Longer-term optimism remains intact after NFP came and went without impact. Assuming CPI doesn’t derail bonds either, early-2026 pricing will still benefit from 2025’s strong rate improvement.
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LendZen Lock-O-Meter Risk Scores (December 17, 2025)
STOCK MARKETS (5-Day) 📊
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- DJIA: 47,886 (-1.70%)
- S&P 500: 6,721 (-2.40%)
- NASDAQ: 24,647 (-3.46%)
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S&P 500 Index (USD) 5-Day Change - December 17, 2025
CRYPTO (1-Week) 🧮
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- Bitcoin: $85,801 (-7.43%)
- Ethereum: $2,819 (-15.06%)
- Solana: $122.24 (-11.34%)
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Bitcoin Price (USD) 7-Day Change - December 17, 2025
PRECIOUS METALS (5-Day) 🪙
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- Gold: $4,345 (+1.44%)
- Silver: $66.41 (+7.44%)
- Platinum: $1,921 (+15.86%)
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Gold Spot Price (USD) 5-Day Change - December 17, 2025
NEXT STEPS ✅
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- Mortgage rates change daily – customize a rate quote that updates automatically and revisit your current options anytime with just one-click and no human interaction at LendZen.com
- You can also check current rates for a variety of loan scenarios at this Reddit post.
- See how to instantly find the best mortgage deal in this Reddit post.
LEARN MORE 🧠
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- Got a specific mortgage question? Post it in the “Mortgage Talk” Reddit thread.
- Learn more about breakeven timelines and when to refinance by visiting this Reddit post.
