Friday, January 23, 2026

Bitunix Crypto — 📊 Comprehensive Crypto Market Analysis - January 23, 2026

## 🌐 Global Market Overview

The cryptocurrency market continues to show resilience with a total market capitalization of **$3.02 trillion**, representing a modest increase of **0.53%** over the past 24 hours. Cross-referencing data from CoinGecko confirms a market cap of **$3.106 trillion** with a **2.2%** change, indicating positive momentum across the broader digital asset ecosystem.

**Bitcoin dominance** stands at **59.2%**, maintaining its position as the leading cryptocurrency, while **Ethereum** commands **11.8%** of the total market share. The 24-hour trading volume reached an impressive **$109.526 billion**, demonstrating robust market activity and liquidity across exchanges.

## 😨 Market Sentiment Indicators

The **Fear & Greed Index** currently reads **34**, firmly in the **Fear** territory. This cautious sentiment reflects recent market volatility and uncertainty surrounding regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors. The **Altcoin Season Index** registers at **29/100**, indicating we remain in **Bitcoin season**, where BTC tends to outperform alternative cryptocurrencies.

The **Average Crypto RSI** sits at **45.37**, positioned in neutral territory between oversold and overbought conditions. This suggests the market is neither overextended nor oversold, providing potential opportunities for strategic entry points. Ethereum gas fees remain exceptionally low at **0.041 GWEI**, making on-chain transactions highly affordable for users and developers.

---

## 💰 Top 30 Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap

|------|------|--------|-------|------|-------|------|------------|------------|

| 1 | Bitcoin | BTC | $89,432.67 | +0.03% | +0.37% | +6.47% | $1.79T | $35.06B |

| 2 | Ethereum | ETH | $2,944.23 | +0.17% | +1.91% | +10.97% | $355.13B | $21.71B |

| 3 | Tether | USDT | $0.9987 | +0.00% | +0.03% | +0.09% | $186.68B | $83.00B |

| 4 | BNB | BNB | $890.23 | +0.01% | +0.22% | +4.57% | $121.39B | $1.88B |

| 5 | XRP | XRP | $1.91 | +0.10% | +1.97% | +7.73% | $116.16B | $2.24B |

| 6 | USDC | USDC | $0.9996 | +0.00% | +0.01% | +0.00% | $73.52B | $14.42B |

| 7 | Solana | SOL | $127.79 | +0.29% | +1.63% | +10.43% | $72.31B | $3.35B |

| 8 | TRON | TRX | $0.3090 | +0.22% | +3.30% | +0.19% | $29.27B | $709.79M |

| 9 | Dogecoin | DOGE | $0.1249 | +0.19% | +1.07% | +10.59% | $21.05B | $831.89M |

| 10 | Cardano | ADA | $0.3604 | +0.06% | +1.02% | +8.14% | $12.99B | $392.99M |

| 11 | Bitcoin Cash | BCH | $594.92 | +0.17% | +0.38% | +0.78% | $11.89B | $300.88M |

| 12 | Monero | XMR | $513.88 | +3.27% | +1.33% | +25.97% | $9.48B | $102.81M |

| 13 | Chainlink | LINK | $12.25 | +0.34% | +1.43% | +10.98% | $8.68B | $283.52M |

| 14 | UNUS SED LEO | LEO | $8.91 | +0.28% | +0.02% | +0.17% | $8.21B | $1.79M |

| 15 | Stellar | XLM | $0.2110 | +0.31% | +2.00% | +7.36% | $6.84B | $116.19M |

| 16 | Ethena USDe | USDe | $0.9986 | +0.02% | +0.06% | +0.10% | $6.58B | $143.31M |

| 17 | Hyperliquid | HYPE | $21.48 | +0.49% | +1.97% | +13.36% | $6.49B | $166.98M |

| 18 | Zcash | ZEC | $359.45 | +0.55% | +0.21% | +11.91% | $5.93B | $414.37M |

| 19 | Sui | SUI | $1.49 | +0.13% | +1.55% | +15.81% | $5.68B | $549.28M |

| 20 | Dai | DAI | $0.9996 | +0.01% | +0.01% | +0.01% | $5.36B | $97.78M |

| 21 | Canton | CC | $0.1417 | +0.73% | +4.99% | +7.69% | $5.32B | $15.97M |

| 22 | Litecoin | LTC | $68.66 | +0.26% | +0.33% | +4.70% | $5.27B | $345.46M |

| 23 | Avalanche | AVAX | $12.11 | +1.21% | +2.64% | +12.13% | $5.22B | $244.43M |

| 24 | Hedera | HBAR | $0.1089 | +0.56% | +1.17% | +7.26% | $4.66B | $117.02M |

| 25 | Shiba Inu | SHIB | $0.057898 | +0.42% | +0.16% | +6.52% | $4.65B | $81.54M |

| 26 | World Liberty Financial | WLFI | $0.1711 | +0.16% | +0.05% | +2.89% | $4.58B | $111.77M |

| 27 | Toncoin | TON | $1.54 | +0.59% | +1.64% | +10.52% | $3.75B | $79.28M |

| 28 | PayPal USD | PYUSD | $0.9993 | +0.01% | +0.03% | +0.04% | $3.69B | $120.40M |

| 29 | Cronos | CRO | $0.09107 | +0.21% | +1.20% | +9.89% | $3.63B | $13.19M |

| 30 | World Liberty Financial USD | USD1 | $1.00 | +0.01% | +0.16% | +0.17% | $3.41B | $3.58B |

### 📈 Key Observations:

**Monero (XMR)** emerges as the standout performer among the top 30, delivering an impressive **25.97%** gain over the past seven days, accompanied by a **1.33%** increase in the last 24 hours. This surge reflects growing interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies amid increasing regulatory scrutiny.

**Ethereum** demonstrates strong momentum with a **10.97%** weekly gain, outpacing Bitcoin's **6.47%** rise. This performance suggests renewed confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem, potentially driven by upcoming network upgrades and increasing DeFi activity. **Solana** mirrors this trend with a **10.43%** weekly increase, solidifying its position as a leading smart contract platform.

Among the top performers, **Sui (SUI)** leads with a remarkable **15.81%** seven-day gain, while **Hyperliquid (HYPE)** follows closely with **13.36%**. These gains highlight the continued investor appetite for emerging Layer 1 blockchains and decentralized exchange infrastructure.

---

## 🚀 Top Gainers (24 Hours)

|------|------|--------|-------|------------|--------------|

| #75 | LayerZero | ZRO | $2.29 | **+16.06%** | $206.38M |

| #93 | Axie Infinity | AXS | $2.67 | **+6.01%** | $637.59M |

| #94 | DoubleZero | 2Z | $0.1302 | **+4.34%** | $18.93M |

| #8 | TRON | TRX | $0.309 | **+3.31%** | $709.98M |

| #99 | ether.fi | ETHFI | $0.6209 | **+3.11%** | $33.36M |

| #85 | Virtuals Protocol | VIRTUAL | $0.8693 | **+3.05%** | $97.22M |

| #45 | Ondo | ONDO | $0.3525 | **+2.96%** | $59.03M |

| #96 | Lighter | LIT | $1.80 | **+2.91%** | $132.16M |

| #46 | Aster | ASTER | $0.6312 | **+2.66%** | $99.76M |

| #37 | Tether Gold | XAUt | $4,946.56 | **+2.38%** | $224.73M |

**LayerZero (ZRO)** dominates the gainers list with an exceptional **16.06%** surge in 24 hours, accompanied by substantial trading volume of **$206.38 million**. This cross-chain interoperability protocol continues to attract attention as developers seek seamless communication between different blockchain networks.

**Axie Infinity (AXS)** rebounds strongly with a **6.01%** gain and impressive volume of **$637.59 million**, suggesting renewed interest in the gaming and NFT sector. The significant trading activity indicates that institutional and retail investors are repositioning in anticipation of the next bull cycle for blockchain gaming.

---

## 📉 Top Losers (24 Hours)

|------|------|--------|-------|------------|--------------|

| #72 | Story | IP | $2.31 | **-9.58%** | $139.16M |

| #100 | The Sandbox | SAND | $0.1581 | **-6.31%** | $247.99M |

| #69 | Pump.fun | PUMP | $0.002484 | **-6.04%** | $150.04M |

| #21 | Canton | CC | $0.142 | **-4.69%** | $15.91M |

| #90 | Immutable | IMX | $0.2518 | **-3.17%** | $23.47M |

| #67 | Midnight | NIGHT | $0.05736 | **-2.79%** | $20.06M |

| #50 | MYX Finance | MYX | $5.82 | **-2.72%** | $15.38M |

| #39 | Pepe | PEPE | $0.054991 | **-2.54%** | $363.64M |

| #23 | Avalanche | AVAX | $12.12 | **-2.48%** | $244.75M |

| #88 | Chiliz | CHZ | $0.05121 | **-2.27%** | $75.20M |

**Story (IP)** experiences the steepest decline at **-9.58%**, reflecting profit-taking after recent gains. Despite the pullback, the project maintains healthy trading volume of **$139.16 million**, indicating continued market interest.

**The Sandbox (SAND)** and **Pump.fun (PUMP)** both face significant selling pressure with declines of **-6.31%** and **-6.04%** respectively. These losses may represent broader weakness in the metaverse and meme coin sectors as traders rotate capital toward more established projects.

---

## 🔥 Trending Cryptocurrencies

|------|------|--------|-------|------|-------|------------|--------------|-----|

| 1 | HeyElsa | ELSA | $0.2008 | +1.00% | **+14.17%** | $45.98M | $736.42M | 4d |

| 2 | RollX | ROLL | $0.1263 | +2.17% | **+17.18%** | $19.58M | $667.01M | 6d |

| 3 | LayerZero | ZRO | $2.28 | +1.50% | **+15.94%** | $766.17M | $205.84M | 1y |

| 4 | Enso | ENSO | $0.8269 | +5.02% | **+46.39%** | $17.02M | $143.55M | 3mo |

| 5 | OpenTimestamps | TIME | $0.0001462 | +22.52% | **+3,420%** | $146.27K | $1.76M | 23h |

| 6 | Owlto Finance | OWL | $0.07386 | +12.72% | **+14.84%** | $24.37M | $1.34B | 9d |

| 7 | Stargate Finance | STG | $0.1974 | +1.52% | **+16.19%** | $130.52M | $37.21M | 3y |

| 8 | FIGHT | FIGHT | $0.02649 | +4.76% | **+7.98%** | $54.31M | $303.19M | 2mo |

| 9 | Verified Emeralds | VEREM | $234.78 | +9.96% | **+23.23%** | $11.73B | $22.49M | 1d |

| 10 | Sentient | SENT | $0.02687 | +5.73% | **+39.76%** | $194.54M | $457.75M | 22h |

**OpenTimestamps (TIME)** delivers an astronomical **3,420%** gain in just 24 hours, marking one of the most explosive performances in recent market history. This newly launched token (only 23 hours old) demonstrates the continued appetite for innovative blockchain projects, though such extreme volatility warrants caution for risk-averse investors.

**Enso (ENSO)** surges **46.39%** with substantial volume of **$143.55 million**, while **Sentient (SENT)** climbs **39.76%** with even higher volume at **$457.75 million**. These trending coins represent diverse sectors including cross-chain infrastructure, DeFi automation, and AI-powered blockchain solutions.

---

## ⚡ Perpetual Futures & Liquidations Analysis

The derivatives market experienced significant turbulence over the past 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching **$197.4 million**. This figure represents a substantial decrease from the previous day's **$679.07 million**, suggesting that market volatility is beginning to stabilize after a period of intense price action.

**Ethereum (ETH)** led liquidations with **$60.28 million**, followed by **Bitcoin (BTC)** at **$41.70 million**. The concentration of liquidations in these two major assets reflects their dominance in leveraged trading and the cascading effect of stop-loss orders during volatile price movements. Approximately **192,910 traders** were liquidated across all exchanges, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage positions in uncertain market conditions.

### Exchange-Specific Data:

**Binance** recorded approximately **$120.8 million** in liquidations, with long positions bearing the brunt of the losses. **Bybit** saw nearly **$95 million** wiped out, again with longs slightly dominant. This pattern indicates that overleveraged bulls were caught off-guard by sudden price reversals, particularly as Bitcoin struggled to maintain support above the $90,000 level.

### Funding Rates Dynamics:

**Ethereum's funding rate** turned negative at **-0.003%**, indicating that short traders currently control the market sentiment. This shift represents a notable change from the typically positive funding rates that characterize bull markets, where long position holders pay shorts to maintain their positions. Under neutral circumstances, funding rates should range between **6% and 12%**, with longs paying for leverage.

**Bitcoin's funding rates** remain mostly positive across major trading pairs, suggesting that despite recent volatility, long-term holders maintain confidence in BTC's upward trajectory. The divergence between BTC and ETH funding rates may present arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated traders.

---

## 📰 Latest Market News & Developments

### Bitcoin Price Action & Market Dynamics

Bitcoin continues to trade below the psychologically significant **$90,000** level following a liquidation-driven sell-off earlier this week. Despite calmer global markets, BTC struggles to regain upward momentum, with technical analysts pointing to resistance at the $91,000-$92,000 range. However, longer-term data remains encouraging, with Bitcoin returning **+12%** over the past 30 days while volatility has fallen significantly.

Prediction markets now show improving odds for Bitcoin reaching **$100,000** in 2026, with some analysts projecting targets as high as **$200,000** based on historical cycle patterns. The cryptocurrency has wiped out its early 2026 gains, but many view the current consolidation as a healthy correction before the next leg higher.

### Options Expiry & Institutional Activity

Nearly **$2.3 billion** in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, creating potential for significant volatility as traders adjust their positions. Options expiries typically act as "strike magnets," with prices gravitating toward levels with the highest open interest. Market participants are bracing for potential post-expiry price swings that could provide entry opportunities for patient investors.

### ETF Flows & Institutional Sentiment

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced a combined outflow of **$996 million** on Wednesday, marking one of the largest single-day redemptions since the products launched. The retreat came amid broader risk-off sentiment in traditional markets and uncertainty surrounding regulatory developments. Despite short-term outflows, the existence of these ETF products continues to provide institutional investors with regulated exposure to digital assets.

In a contrasting move, **Strategy** (formerly MicroStrategy) announced the purchase of **$2.13 billion** worth of Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as the largest corporate holder of BTC. This aggressive accumulation strategy demonstrates continued conviction among sophisticated investors that Bitcoin represents a superior long-term store of value.

### Regulatory & Infrastructure Developments

The **Senate Agriculture Committee** released a draft of a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, potentially providing much-needed regulatory clarity for the industry. Clear regulations could unlock significant institutional capital that has remained on the sidelines due to compliance concerns.

The **New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)** announced plans to launch a new platform for trading digital tokens around the clock, recognizing the 24/7 nature of cryptocurrency markets. This development represents a significant step toward the convergence of traditional finance and digital assets.

**BitGo Holdings** made history as the first crypto company to IPO in 2026, debuting on the NYSE under the ticker **"BTGO"**. The cryptocurrency custody company's successful listing provides a blueprint for other crypto-native firms seeking to access public markets.

### Technical Market Analysis

Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano experienced downward pressure as Bitcoin failed to build momentum near the $90,000 level. Technical analysts note that ETH briefly fell to **$2,900** before recovering above **$3,000**, with the $3,000 level now serving as critical psychological support.

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to maintain its monetary policy stance helped steady the crypto market, as investors had feared potential ripple effects from changes in Japanese monetary policy. The relatively dovish stance from major central banks continues to provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

---

## 🎯 Trading Insights & Market Outlook

The current market structure presents a complex picture for traders and investors. The **Fear & Greed Index** at **34** suggests that sentiment has swung too far toward pessimism, potentially creating contrarian buying opportunities for those with longer time horizons. Historically, periods of extreme fear have preceded significant rallies as weak hands capitulate and strong hands accumulate.

The **Altcoin Season Index** at **29/100** indicates that Bitcoin continues to outperform alternative cryptocurrencies, a pattern typical of early bull market phases. As Bitcoin establishes new support levels and confidence returns, capital typically rotates into higher-risk altcoins, driving the next phase of the cycle.

**Ethereum's** strong seven-day performance (**+10.97%**) relative to Bitcoin (**+6.47%**) may signal the early stages of this rotation. The network's low gas fees (**0.041 GWEI**) make it an attractive platform for DeFi applications and NFT trading, potentially driving increased usage and demand for ETH.

### Key Levels to Watch:

For **Bitcoin**, the **$90,000** level has emerged as critical short-term support. A decisive break below this level could trigger additional selling pressure toward **$85,000**, while a reclaim of **$92,000** would likely attract momentum buyers targeting **$100,000**.

**Ethereum** must hold above **$2,900** to maintain its bullish structure. A successful defense of this level, combined with improving funding rates, could propel ETH toward **$3,200** and eventually **$3,500** in the coming weeks.

### Risk Management Considerations:

The recent liquidation events underscore the importance of proper risk management in cryptocurrency trading. With **192,910 traders** liquidated in a single 24-hour period, the dangers of excessive leverage are evident. Traders should consider reducing position sizes, using wider stop-losses, and avoiding leverage during periods of elevated volatility.

The negative funding rate for Ethereum suggests that shorting ETH has become crowded, potentially setting up a short squeeze if positive news catalysts emerge. Conversely, the positive funding rates for Bitcoin indicate that longs remain committed despite recent weakness, though this could also signal complacency if bearish scenarios materialize.

---

## 🔮 Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market stands at a critical juncture, balancing between fear-driven selling and opportunistic accumulation. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the fundamental backdrop continues to improve with increasing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure development.

The divergence between Bitcoin's resilience and altcoin weakness suggests that smart money is accumulating quality assets during periods of fear. The strong performance of Ethereum, Solana, and emerging Layer 1 platforms indicates that the next bull phase may be characterized by a broader rally across the cryptocurrency ecosystem rather than Bitcoin dominance alone.

Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on risk management while positioning for the next leg higher. The combination of improving technical indicators, stabilizing liquidations, and positive long-term developments suggests that patient investors may be rewarded as the market digests recent volatility and prepares for the next move.

As always, conduct thorough research, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and consider consulting with financial advisors before making investment decisions in this highly volatile asset class.

---

*Stay informed, trade wisely, and may the markets be in your favor!*

💎🙌🚀

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Concise summaries of your favourite YouTube channels so you can keep up to date or choose what's best worth your time.

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1qkjc1a

Which time travel power do you choose?

The Scholar: you wake up in your childhood home. You are a child again. You are in whatever grade of school you would be able to get top grades with your current intellect. This time around you get all the advantages. Private schools, tuters, whatever university you choose is free to you as long as you get the grades to get in. (No loopholes though) If you ever try to bet or invest or with the lottery with your knowledge of the future you will be magically thwarted. For example If you try to invest in Bitcoin you will forget crypto exists. You can however remember things like art being a bad thing to study because AI will steal your job, as long as you never try to invest in AI.

The Family Man: You gain the ability to go back in time and relive your favorite memories with your family. After you relive the day, you wake back up exactly when and where you left from so you don't miss current time with your family. You can relive your honeymoon with your wife on repeat. You can relive Christmas when your kids were little. When you are reliving it, you feel the feeling you felt, and think the things you thought. It never feels old and boring when you relive it because in the moment you don't remember being there before. (No loopholes) You can't change the past at all. It is only a memory.

The Dreamer: From now on when you go to sleep you can choose any historical event to dream about. Your body gets a perfect night's sleep while your mind goes and sees history first hand. Everything you see is how it truly happened, and you can see anything whether it was known about or not. You just have to think to see it. You can watch the first cave painting being made. You can see what actually crashed in Roswell, New Mexico. You remember everything when you wake up. It doesn't fade like a dream. The only drawback to this is that it has to be from at least 100 years ago. Plus if you go back far enough you probably won't understand what they are saying anymore.

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (01/22/2026)

Our platform aggregates and organizes all relevant market news, helping you stay informed, up-to-date, and knowledgeable without spending hours sifting through headlines.

Reinvented to keep you in control, it's where your edge begins with better information. Go from market noise to clarity in seconds with a real-time platform built to redefine how traders and investors digest financial news.

Visit www.marketflux.io

Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (01/22/2026)

Company News:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 4.11%

5D Change: 2.29%

News Volume: 179

Unusual Volume Factor: 2x

Tesla Launches Driverless Robotaxis in Austin as Musk Forecasts Widespread Deployment and Humanoid Robot Sales

Tesla began offering fully autonomous robotaxi rides in Austin without safety monitors, marking a significant milestone in the company’s self-driving ambitions. CEO Elon Musk announced the development during his first appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he outlined an aggressive timeline for the company’s autonomous and robotics initiatives. Musk stated that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could receive regulatory approval in Europe and China as early as next month, with robotaxi services becoming widespread across the United States by year-end. The company also plans to sell its Optimus humanoid robots to consumers by the end of 2027, with Musk predicting eventual production of billions of units that will outnumber humans.

The Austin robotaxi launch, which removes human supervisors from vehicles for the first time, comes ten months after competitor Waymo introduced similar services. Insurance provider Lemonade announced it would offer Tesla FSD users half-price insurance rates, which Morgan Stanley noted validates the technology’s safety claims. Tesla shares rose over 3 percent on the news, though the announcement pressured ride-sharing competitors Uber and Lyft.

At Davos, Musk made several bold predictions about artificial intelligence, stating that AI could surpass individual human intelligence by year-end or 2027 at the latest, and exceed collective human intelligence by 2030. He also discussed power constraints as a limiting factor for AI deployment and advocated for space-based solar data centers. Separately, SpaceX has reportedly selected four banks for a potential initial public offering at an $800 billion valuation, raising questions among Tesla investors about whether they will receive preferential access.

The move comes as Musk’s business empire expands, with Blue Origin launching TeraWave to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service. Short-seller Jim Chanos criticized Tesla’s autonomous vehicle claims, warning that true self-driving capability would shift liability to manufacturers. Meanwhile, Tesla faces workforce reductions at its Berlin Gigafactory and lost significant market share in California’s EV market last year, highlighting operational challenges despite the company’s ambitious technological roadmap.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 0.15%

5D Change: 11.49%

News Volume: 118

Unusual Volume Factor: 3x

Intel Shares Plunge 10% Despite Q4 Beat as Supply Shortages Drive Weak Q1 Guidance

Intel Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with revenue of $13.67 billion versus estimates of $13.43 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.15 beating forecasts of $0.087. However, shares fell sharply in after-hours trading, declining as much as 10%, after the chipmaker issued disappointing first-quarter guidance citing supply constraints. The company forecast Q1 2026 revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, below analyst estimates of $12.56 billion, and projected adjusted earnings per share of $0.00 compared to expectations of $0.08. Intel’s CFO attributed the weak outlook to supply shortages hampering the company’s ability to meet customer demand, echoing concerns voiced by other semiconductor manufacturers.

The earnings report came as Intel stock had surged 47% year-to-date heading into the announcement, reaching a 52-week high of $54.43 earlier in the day. Wall Street had grown increasingly bullish on the chipmaker’s position in artificial intelligence, with Bernstein raising its price target to $36 from $35 ahead of the results. The stock was among the most actively traded securities and had been bucking broader market weakness.

CEO comments highlighted AI demand and the company’s efforts to find its footing in the AI race, though analysts questioned inventory levels amid reported AI chip shortages. Intel warned that the robust PC market is expected to cool this year, with memory supply issues playing a contributing role. The company indicated supply conditions should improve later in 2026.

The disappointing guidance also weighed on shares of AMD, which had been on its strongest streak in six years. Intel’s results carried broad implications for the semiconductor sector given the company’s market position. Analysts noted the company is ramping up spending on chip production, with particular focus on its 18A manufacturing process, though early results drew mixed reviews from Wall Street observers.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 0.48%

5D Change: -1.38%

News Volume: 133

Unusual Volume Factor: 3x

Trump Sues JPMorgan and CEO Dimon for $5 Billion Over Account Closures as Dimon Criticizes Immigration Policy

President Donald Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging the bank improperly closed his accounts for political reasons following the January 6 Capitol riot. The suit, filed in Florida court, accuses the nation’s largest bank of “debanking” Trump while he was running for president. JPMorgan responded with a statement saying “we regret President Trump has sued us” but believes “the suit has no merit.” Trump stated he has not spoken with Dimon about the matter.

The lawsuit comes on the same day Dimon made rare public criticism of Trump’s immigration policy, telling Bloomberg “I don’t like what I’m seeing.” Speaking at Davos, Dimon also expressed willingness to pay higher taxes if funds directly aid struggling Americans and warned that implementing a credit card rate cap would be an “economic disaster.”

In other JPMorgan news, the bank raised Dimon’s compensation 10.3% to $43 million for 2025, his 20th year leading the firm. The bank also acquired UK pensions technology firm WealthOS and lost bankers to TD Bank as competitors expand their capital markets teams.

JPMorgan analysts issued several market calls, recommending investors buy the dip in defense stocks following Trump comments and identifying opportunities in water dredging companies. The bank expressed skepticism about Ethereum’s recent activity surge following the Fusaka upgrade, doubting its sustainability. Analysts also called for greater European cohesion in innovation and investment. SpaceX reportedly selected JPMorgan along with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to lead a potential blockbuster IPO at an $800 billion valuation, which could rank among the largest public offerings ever.

Ge Aerospace (GE)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -7.42%

5D Change: -7.47%

GE Aerospace Beats Q4 Estimates But Stock Slides on Slowing Revenue Growth Concerns

GE Aerospace reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.57 versus estimates of $1.43 and revenue of $11.87 billion topping forecasts of $11.21 billion. The company posted record LEAP engine deliveries and a 74 percent surge in orders, building a backlog of approximately $190 billion that provides long-term revenue visibility. Despite the strong results, shares declined as investors focused on decelerating revenue growth rates.

The company’s commercial engines and services division generated $9.47 billion in revenue, above the $8.95 billion estimate. GE Aerospace forecast 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $7.10 and $7.40, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.10, driven by strength in the aftermarket services business. CEO Larry Culp projected double-digit revenue growth for 2026 and defended the company’s engine pricing power amid airline industry criticism.

Management emphasized that no structural trade-off exists between maintenance, repair, and overhaul support and new engine production, indicating capacity to scale both operations simultaneously. The company reported net income of $1.67 billion and forecast 2026 adjusted free cash flow between $8.0 billion and $8.48 billion, above the $8.01 billion estimate. While fundamentals remain solid with resilient air travel demand supporting the outlook, the market reaction reflected concerns about the pace of future growth rather than current performance.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -10.14%

5D Change: -13.12%

Abbott Laboratories Plunges to 52-Week Low After Missing Q4 Revenue Estimates

Abbott Laboratories shares tumbled nearly 11% on Thursday, hitting a 52-week low of $107.27, after the medical device maker reported disappointing fourth-quarter results. The company met earnings expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.50 but fell short on revenue, posting $11.46 billion against estimates of $11.8 billion. Organic sales growth of 3% significantly underperformed the 6.18% forecast.

The revenue miss stemmed primarily from weakness in Abbott’s diagnostics and nutrition segments, with the nutrition unit particularly struggling. The company acknowledged that price increases contributed to the sales slump. Despite strong performance in medical devices and electrophysiology, along with margin expansion and double-digit EPS growth, investors reacted negatively to the top-line shortfall.

Abbott issued 2026 guidance projecting adjusted EPS between $5.35 and $5.80, slightly below the $5.68 consensus, and first-quarter EPS of $1.12 to $1.18 versus expectations of $1.19. The company forecasts 7% organic sales growth and 10% EPS growth for 2026 as its nutrition business pivots toward volume recovery.

The stock was among the most actively traded securities Thursday, underperforming competitors in the healthcare sector. Wall Street analysts had revised expectations ahead of the earnings release, but the results still disappointed investors focused on revenue growth momentum.

Geopolitics Events

Jack Smith Defends Trump Prosecutions Before Congress as President Sues JPMorgan

Former Special Counsel Jack Smith testified before Congress defending his criminal investigations into President Trump, stating Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the election and is now seeking revenge. Smith stood by his decision to bring charges despite unsuccessful prosecution. Separately, Trump sued JPMorgan and CEO Jamie Dimon for $5 billion, alleging the bank denied him services for political reasons.

Trump's Greenland Pivot Calms Markets as Ukraine Peace Documents Near Completion

U.S. stock futures rose and the volatility index retreated after President Trump stepped back from his aggressive stance on Greenland, which had included threats of tariffs and military action to acquire the Danish territory. Greenland's Prime Minister stated she believes Trump won't use force, though emphasized the territory's sovereignty must be respected. The Greenland episode has prompted EU leaders to reassess transatlantic relations at an emergency summit in Brussels. European diplomats described shaken confidence in the U.S. partnership, with leaders reportedly viewing Trump as a potential bully following the threats. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delivered sharp criticism of European allies, saying the continent looks lost and fragmented when facing Trump. Zelenskiy slammed Europe for avoiding tough decisions despite loving to discuss the future. However, he announced that documents to end the war with Russia are nearly ready, with security guarantees finished and awaiting presidential signatures. An economy deal is almost complete, including discussions on a free trade zone with Trump, though territorial issues remain unresolved. Trump separately pushed for regime change in Cuba by year's end, following Venezuela's recent political shift, and criticized polls showing his approval in the low 40s as fake. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed disapproval of Trump's immigration policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China reportedly agreed to spin off TikTok's American operations, and the EU is moving toward provisional application of its South American trade deal as soon as March.

Trump Announces Greenland Access Deal with Denmark, Citing Arctic Defense Priorities

President Trump disclosed ongoing negotiations with Denmark for unrestricted U.S. access to Greenland without time constraints, positioning the arrangement as a strategic counter to Russian and Chinese Arctic expansion. The agreement would include missile defense installations and symbolic placement of Capitol dome material on the island. Details remain under negotiation, though the announcement has generated skepticism and uncertainty about implementation.

House Passes 2026 Spending Package, Sends to Senate With 8 Days Until Shutdown

The House approved final 2026 funding bills to avert government shutdown, despite Democratic opposition over ICE funding levels. The legislation now moves to Senate consideration with eight days remaining before the deadline.

Macro Events

US Inflation Meets Expectations as Consumer Spending Accelerates in November

November PCE inflation matched forecasts at 2.8% annually and 0.2% monthly, while personal spending rose 0.5%, exceeding October's flat reading. Real spending increased 0.3% month-over-month, signaling sustained consumer demand.

US Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 200K, Signaling Stable Labor Market

Initial jobless claims totaled 200,000 for the week ending January 17, slightly below the 210,000 estimate. Continuing claims fell to 1.849 million, better than the 1.900 million forecast. The figures suggest labor market stability, with claims remaining at low levels consistent with tight employment conditions despite seasonal variations.

US Economy Surges 4.4% in Q3 as Spending and Inflation Meet Expectations

The US economy expanded 4.4% in the third quarter, the strongest growth in two years, while November personal spending rose 0.5% and core PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually, all matching forecasts exactly.

Stock Markets Events

Mixed Market Session Sees Multiple 52-Week Highs Amid Small-Cap Outperformance

Transportation stocks reached record levels Thursday, delivering a classic bullish signal as small-cap equities continued their 2025 outperformance streak. Mining firm SSR, biotech companies Immunome and Theravance Biopharma, and Banc of California all touched 52-week highs. Meta gained on a positive Jefferies analyst note, while unusual options activity surrounded Five9 and Boston Scientific. Netflix approached its 52-week low with shares nearing a 50% decline. Palantir, GE Aerospace, and Crocs also drew investor attention amid Thursday's trading action.

Markets Hit Extremes as Netflix Plunges and S&P 500 Rally Raises Bear Concerns

Netflix approaches 52-week low with nearly 50% decline while S&P 500 surges in "hyper-bull" mode, prompting warnings that any retreat could trigger bearish sentiment. Value stock ETFs outperform broader indexes as Snowflake struggles despite bullish options positioning.

Technology Events

Tesla Launches Driverless Robotaxi Service in Austin

Tesla has begun operating fully autonomous robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, with no safety monitors present in vehicles, CEO Elon Musk announced, marking a significant milestone in the company's self-driving ambitions.

Billionaire Investor Increases Microsoft and Meta Holdings as AI Investment Cycle Extends Through 2028

A prominent billionaire investor has expanded positions in Microsoft and Meta amid ongoing tech sector volatility. Taiwan Semiconductor's raised capital expenditure guidance points to AI infrastructure buildout continuing until 2028, while Davos attendees shift focus from deployment to returns on AI investments. Tesla announced robotaxis will achieve widespread U.S. availability by year-end, with Optimus robots targeting commercial sale. Cathie Wood's 2026 outlook emphasizes technology and deregulation themes.

OpenAI to Monetize Customer AI Discoveries Amid Intensifying US-China Competition

OpenAI plans revenue sharing from customers' AI-generated discoveries while US-China AI rivalry dominates Davos discussions. Meanwhile, Lease End debuts AI agent targeting consumer savings and silver markets show squeeze potential.

Tesla to Sell Humanoid Robots to Public by End of 2027, Musk Says

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced the company will begin selling its Optimus humanoid robots to consumers by the end of 2027, predicting eventual sales in the billions and a future where robots outnumber people. Musk also stated Tesla's robotaxi service will be widespread across the U.S. by late 2026, with self-driving approval expected in Europe and China next month. The CEO indicated Tesla's future success will increasingly depend on its humanoid robot business.

Musk Predicts AI to Surpass Human Intelligence Within Year, Billions of Humanoid Robots Coming

Elon Musk forecasts AI will exceed individual human intelligence by year-end or 2026, with collective human intelligence surpassed by 2030. He projects billions of humanoid robots will eventually populate the market, while analysts suggest mid-cap AI stocks may outperform tech giants.

Capital One Acquires Fintech Startup Brex for $5.15 Billion

Capital One has agreed to purchase fintech startup Brex for $5.15 billion in a cash and stock transaction, marking the credit card company's latest acquisition.

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Fed Rate Cut Odds Fall and Exchange Inflows Surge

Bitcoin markets showed weakness following strong US GDP data that reduced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Crypto ETFs experienced $1 billion in outflows amid policy uncertainty, while 17,000 Bitcoin flowing to exchanges raised sell-off concerns. Separately, Bitwise launched a new ETF combining Bitcoin, gold, and mining equities, and Tether's slowing growth emerged as a caution signal for digital asset markets.

BitGo shares surge 24.6% in NYSE debut, reaching $2.59 billion valuation

Cryptocurrency custody firm BitGo's stock jumped 24.6% in its New York Stock Exchange debut, valuing the company at $2.59 billion. Ondo announced plans to tokenize BitGo stock onchain following the listing.

Oil And Gas Events

Natural Gas Surges to 2022 Highs as Winter Storm Threatens U.S., Oil Eases

Natural gas futures jumped to levels unseen since 2022 as the U.S. braces for a severe winter storm, with prices tracking toward their best weekly performance on record despite a 3% intraday pullback. The historic surge threatens higher heating bills for consumers. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated as geopolitical risk premiums declined.

US Gasoline Inventories Surge to Five-Year High as Venezuelan Oil Flows Increase

US gasoline stockpiles reached a five-year peak as major traders Vitol and Trafigura accelerated Venezuelan oil sales under a US-backed $2 billion supply agreement. Refiners Valero and Phillips 66 rallied on access to discounted Venezuelan crude. Meanwhile, gasoline demand fell to its lowest level in three years, according to EIA data.

U.S. Reopens Venezuelan Oil Trade as Refiners Secure Cheap Crude Supply

United States lifts restrictions on Venezuelan oil imports, enabling Valero and Phillips 66 to purchase discounted crude while Trafigura completes initial sales under new supply agreements.

Corporate Actions Events

SpaceX Selects Four Banks for Potential Blockbuster IPO at $800 Billion Valuation

Elon Musk's SpaceX has chosen Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley to lead what could become one of the largest initial public offerings ever, with the rocket company selling existing shares at an approximately $800 billion valuation.

Clorox Acquires Purell Maker GOJO Industries for $2.25 Billion

Clorox agreed to purchase GOJO Industries, maker of Purell hand sanitizer, for $2.25 billion to expand its consumer health and hygiene brand portfolio, gaining access to millions of dispensers.

Alibaba Plans IPO for AI Chipmaking Unit T-Head

Alibaba Group is preparing to list its chipmaking division T-Head through an initial public offering. The company will first restructure the unit with partial employee ownership before pursuing the IPO, capitalizing on strong investor interest in AI semiconductor businesses.

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Erases Three-Week Slide- Bulls Eye Key Hurdle

Sterling is set to snap a three-week losing streak with a sharp rebound now pushing into resistance. A reaction will determine whether the recovery can extend.

By : Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

GBP/USD rebounded sharply after a three-week decline, forming an outside-weekly reversal off Fibonacci support.
The recovery is now testing initial resistance near the January high-close- the reaction here should determine whether this move extends or stalls.
Resistance 1.3502, 1.3573, 1.3648 (key)- Support 1.3355 (key), ~1.3268, 1.3223

Sterling has rebounded decisively after a three-week decline, with GBP/USD reversing higher from Fibonacci support early in the week. The recovery has carried price into its first meaningful resistance zone, where sellers have previously defended the downtrend. The response here will be critical in determining whether the rebound can evolve into a broader recovery or if the move fades into another lower high. Traders should stay alert as price action around this hurdle is likely to define near-term direction for the Pound. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

https://preview.redd.it/e6njue5npyeg1.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=29cc24752cd74b32801d4b4fbf7d83161ef1c2ed

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD was testing resistance and, “the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 1.3280-1.3372 range for guidance.” The range broke higher the following week with the Sterling rally extending nearly 4.3% off the November low to register an intraweek high at 1.3568 into the yearly open. A three-week decline rebounded off support this week the 38.2% retracement of the November rally at 1.3355 with price now poised to mark an outside-weekly reversal.

The focus is on this recovery with the rally now testing resistance at the January high-day close (HDC) and the 75% parallel of a descending pitchfork extending off the 2025 highs near 1.3502. A break / close above this slope would expose the 78.6% retracement of the September decline at 1.3573 and the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3648. Note the upper parallel converges on this level over the next few weeks – look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 2022 high at 1.3749.

A break / close below this week’s low would threaten a larger setback towards the 52-week moving average (currently ~1.3268) and key support at the 61.58% retracement at 1.3223. Note that basic trendline support extending off the November lows converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and losses below this level would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger breakdown is underway.

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade GBP/USD" Guide

https://www.forex.com/en-us/whitepapers/

https://preview.redd.it/lum7fe2mqyeg1.png?width=1420&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d781bff2dba787dca039eefc6539be64da584d6

Bottom line: A rebound off downslope support is testing initial resistance – risk for infection off this mark in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3355 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 1.3502 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of UK retail sales tomorrow with the FOMC interest rate decision on tap next week. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to hold rates, and the focus will be on Chair Powell's subsequent commentary. With today’s weekly jobless claims release showing resiliency in the labor markets, the central bank may be more reluctant to move on rates as inflation remains well-above the 2% target. In his last presser, Powell stated that there were risks on both sides of the mandate, and if the jobs data continues to improve, the markets may have to reprice expectations for two rate cuts this year. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

https://preview.redd.it/8s4a5c0oqyeg1.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e23ab3adf644cb700ad3b46b131dfc5e0e49f55

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/british-pound-forecast-gbp-usd-erases-three-week-slide-bulls-eye-key-hurdle-1-22-2026/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

🔥 Golden Inu vs. Bitcoin in a No-Inflation World

https://i.redd.it/ak1jeni1eseg1.jpeg

Trying to SteelMan The Pro-Crypto Agenda Creates a Hellish Social Dystopia

On more than one occasion, in the interest of fairness, I've tried to "see things from the other perspective" and reason why bitcoin and crypto could/should succeed.

Each time I do this, I'm confronted with a future reality that doesn't look good in any general sense.

It kind of reminds me of the Star Wars verses the Star Trek universes. (although lets ignore the current destruction of the Star Trek universe at the hands of Paramount)

In Star Wars, you have two warring powers constantly at odds, with the rest of the universe either teaming up to produce meat puppets for the never-ending grist of war, or running away in fear.

What we see in a typical Star Wars myopic is a, "Housewives of Las Vegas" style vision of the 1% on each side, the (benevolent) kings and princesses along with the (malevent) dictators and their generals, along with a small smidgen of "normies" portrayed not as the unwitting pawns they really are in someone else's obcene power grab, but as sparky patriots or gullible minions. All creating generational collateral damage in their, "totally justified" wake. Star Wars, like most of the Disney metaverse, is a collection of heroic parables where totalitarianism itself is not bad, but can be good or evil. Where the super rich are just "normal people like you and I" most of the time, unless they're specifically evil. There's no judgement made on the vast disproportion of resources among people. In the benevolent Disney monarchy, everybody is happy. It's a given that's, "the way things will always be." The problem is, history and the real world doesn't show a plethora of "benevolent monarchs" ruling over utopias where everybody is happy.

Star Trek, in comparison, was born out of one man's unique vision. Gene Roddenberry wanted to see a future utopia where many modern social problems were essentially obsolete, from racism to poverty and hunger, to classism. The Star Trek universe, ideally is supposed to embody a future where there's a much more horizontal equality of opportunity, devoid of racism, sexism, and things like normalized religious/cultural intolerance. In the Star Trek universe, the vast majority of the people in the middle are pretty well off. What motivates people in Star Trek isn't conquest, unlike Star Wars, but Exploration, learning and understanding.

One could argue both universes have unrealistic expectations, but are they equally unrealistic? Are their respective pros and cons comparable?

In Star Wars, violence solves most problems, and little thought is given to the afterglow. In Star Trek (at least the cannon that follows Gene Roddenberry's vision), careful consideration is given to any action that may cause unnecessary harm. These two disparate sociological concepts epitomize the fundamental differences between these two worlds, and also the yin/yang in the real world.

Obviously fans of the various franchises can argue over my generalizations and cite specific exceptions which I don't deny exist. But why bring this up in context to a future world where crypto is king? Because I think like Star Wars/Star Trek, the two camps in crypto, for and against, see two entirely different versions of a "future utopia" and the arguments in defense may be surprisingly similar.

Pro-crypto is basically the Star Wars camp (sometimes pretending they want a Star Trek world). They enter rooms with blasters blazing first and no questions being asked. "Bitcoin fixes this!" And proponents of crypto believe that in their future world, they will be rich. They are the "chosen ones." The Jedi knights. They don't pay much attention to the plebs, just like in the movies. The emphasis is on the 1% and how everybody wants to be rich and powerful. You can't have it both ways. If you want to be able to afford everything, and you want everybody else to have the same opportunity, then nobody is actually "rich." You might be imagining some benevolent form of socialism instead. Their rhetoric is typically not reconcillable and is just shallow propaganda to get people to buy into the scheme.

Anti-crypto people tend to be more pragmatic. I think they're more aligned with the Star Trek camp. They recognize that a rising tide that lifts all boats is better than a small armada of powerful warships, surrounded by dinghies. Because they realize they could be one of those in a dinghy more likely than they'd be on a big ship. And this is the fundamental difference between the appeal of each camp. The Star Wars fans, like crypto bros, expect that in their world they are the Jedi Knights, the big bagholders, and don't really care what happens to everybody else.

The fundamental difference between the two camps lies in their field of view.

If you "assume" you'll be the rich one, everything turns out great, but historically and statistically speaking, the odds aren't necessarily with you. In the real world, people who are well-resourced tend to be born into well-resourced families, less so than they dig themselves out of poverty. This is an undeniable material truth that many don't want to admit. There are entire religions designed to convince people to be content with their lesser lot in life, like Hinduism, as a result, and a need to quell the underclasses from revolting. It could be argued all religious, "death cults" that celebrate some great rewards in the afterlife, were designed to placate those in the present, who felt they got less than they deserved, but rather than act upon that disappointment by taking it out on those with more, they should wait patiently to instead be rewarded in the afterlife.

Crypto panders to a similar operational model: HODL and you'll be rewarded at some point later -- don't worry about when... just be patient.

Meanwhile those operating the scheme are instantly benefiting from your liquidity and patience, regardless of what happens in the future.

One can look around the world right now and see the operators of the schemes, making out like bandits, at the expense of their adherents. In this manner, it seems crypto is more akin to a religion than a financial technology.

But let's get to the point.... what happens when we envision a very realistic, real-world scenario where crypto becomes ubiquitous? That's the end game pro-crypto people want, because it would result in, "number going way up" and them potentially being rich.

They also believe that crypto will break the stranglehold of powerful special interests over wealth and control. That is a premise that we can specifically investigate as we fabricate a theoretical future where crypto becomes a de-facto standard.

So let's dispense with the philosophical rambling of, "What crypto bros claim to want for society." Let's talk about what it takes to get from point A to B, and what happens along the way.

Bitcoin is now 16 years old. If it were meant to organically become a de-facto standard, honestly, it should have happened by now. People say, "It's still early" but at this point you'd be hard-pressed to go anywhere in the world and mention the word "bitcoin" and not have somebody at least know what it is. That's not "early." There's a big difference between being familiar with something, and recognizing that something offers a special benefit to you. Usually things that become the latter, don't take long from the former to happen. It didn't take people 16 years to recognize the value of the Internet or the iPhone. But here we are with bitcoin, still floundering. And unlike the Internet or the iPhone, there are no infrastructure or costs hurdles holding back adoption.

So how does it take off to get to point B where everybody is using it, and/or a vast majority of the world de-facto recognizes it as a, "store of value?"

The answer to that question can be seen in what's going on today in the pro-crypto industry: forced acceptance.

One crypto bro legislator in Tennessee for example, has introduced HB1695. This bill directs the local government to try and allocate up to 10% of the state's general funds to be diverted into crypto assets, to "diversify into such a commodity to improve risk-adjusted, inflation-adjusted returns of long-horizon public portfolios." This is just one of many such pursuits, usually in republican-dominated areas.

Nowhere in the bill are the risks of crypto actually revealed. Instead it gushes, "Bitcoin is a decentralized digital commodity with a provably limited supply and deep, twenty-four-hour global liquidity." Despite the fact that this "twenty-four-hour global liquidity" is not at all guaranteed, and is managed by companies that are mostly not even situated in the USA, and not regulated like traditional banks or brokerage houses whatsoever.

Given the fact that governments are inherently non-profit, and what surplus funds they do have, are traditionally, very conservatively managed, usually via bonds and very stable interest bearing accounts, movement of money into crypto seems incredibly unorthodox and risky. The likelihood of this bill passing will not be a testament to thorough debate and discussion and a general acceptance that this is a prudent course of action for the state in general, but instead via being railroaded by a singularly-minded, majority who have questionable conflicts of interests in supporting such legislation.

And this is what we're seeing elsewhere, with the Trump administration basically calling off enforcement efforts towards crypto people and companies, signing unilateral executive orders designating a, "strategic bitcoin reserve", etc.

This is not happening because of non-partisan, open discussion and debate. It's being thrust upon the public without much contemplation of the risks. The crypto industry has bought into politics and is now forcing it on people. That's their last ditch effort to get "acceptance."

The reason this is being done is precisely because all other means have failed. The public is not voluntarily deciding bitcoin is a "long term store of value" so those who are in the game are now forcing it upon the public. There has not been any public referendum on these actions.

So for something marketed as "being for the people and not for the powerful special interests" it sure seems odd that its greatest boosters are actually, powerful special interests.

Pro crypto people would argue, "Fiat is precisely the same. It has no inherent value and was forced upon the public by powerful special interests." This is true. And it may have been the only way to create a ubiquitous societal currency. The government mandates it, and imposes the necessary resources to insure the monetary system is stable and not compromised.

Crypto people suggest Bitcoin can achieve those same goals.

Let's assume for the moment people honestly believe that.

So let's craft a situation where Bitcoin gets what it wants....

The first problem we run into regarding "Bitcoin Utopia" is WHICH VERSION OF BITCOIN?

Bitcoin was introduced as a currency - a means to pay traditional payments. It was never intended as a long term store of value. Its initial limited scarcity was a dynamic to make the price stable, not make it an investment. It's only later, after the limitations of the technology as a payment system became apparent, that it was re-branded as "digital gold." So there are two distinct types of "bitcoin is the future" scenarios. One where bitcoin replaces fiat. And another where bitcoin is a store of value. Currency does not make a good investment - ask any economist - those two concepts are in opposition to each other. Currency needs to be stable to be useful. If currency constantly increases in value, then people will hoard currency and not spend it. Without currency changing hands, the economy collapses.

This is one of the first signs that a crypto utopia doesn't really turn into a utopia, but instead a socio-economic mess.

So let's bust out our Libertarian magic dust(tm) and make Bitcoin the new "money."

The most realistic way to kick something like this into gear would be to have major pseudo-monopolistic companies decide to accept bitcoin. Let's say Amazon and Wal-Mart now allow payment via Bitcoin. This would be a major deal.

In order for this to truly work, it has to be a level of bitcoin commerce that's never really been seen before. We're talking with no conditions. If you go to Wal Mart and want to buy something for cash, there is no limit, after which they won't accept cash, but traditionally with BTC transactions, the larger the transaction, the more potential liability one might have being a party to money laundering and sanctions violations. And traditionally crypto transactions have been limited to amounts that are relatively trivial. The Lightning Network, and the fact that most payments over $500 fail, is a good example of that - which is something we'll get to later.

So, this is the first quandary we run into if bitcoin is the new money. Does this mean there are no longer protections against money laundering and sanctions violations? So that international sanctions are no longer an effective measure to control rogue nations?

Bitcoin bros believe that "bitcoin stops all wars" but if sanctions no longer work, it would seem more likely bitcoin would help fund more wars by helping finance and arm immorally/militaristic nations that the rest of the world was trying to contain financially as an alternative to more direct violence. A distracting argument could be made over whether, "Do sanctions work?" But it seems, if even in one instance, sanctions affected change while avoiding more substantive military intervention, that could be construed as a "yes." Also think about sanctions regarding the proliferation of military nuclear technology - is limiting that a good thing? But let's not get bogged down in that - it's ultimately a distraction. The operative issue is, this very well used technique would possibly no longer be available.

And what about money laundering? Now drug cartels and other illegal networks can much more easily convert their cash into other assets without liability? How would that make the world better? Granted, a lot of pro-crypto people think everything should be legal, but that's a whole different podcast debunking the anarchist libertarian model - suffice to say, it doesn't really work.

So now if you can buy all kinds of things with bitcoin, what are the options? You either unleash the shackles on huge groups of bad actors around the world, making their nefarious efforts even more profitable? Or you try to employ AML and OFAC controls on bitcoin point-of-sale transactions? That opens up another can of worms, since Bitcoin is pseudonymous, you blow one of its principal supposed advantages out of the water by having to submit to scrutiny of crypto purchases. This would also introduce lots of delays, and at the least, create another convoluted system that would be slower than traditional non-crypto, digital payment methods. In any case, it's not good for consumers. It may be good for criminals though.

Then we get to the inherent limitations of Bitcoin's network itself. Capable of little more than 4.7 transactions per second, bitcoin transactions would be exponentially slower than traditional payment methods. Even implementing "L2" solutions like Lightning Network won't significantly solve that problem, and introduce additional problems as LN requires liquidity to be staged in their network prior to any transactions taking place. So you've got a crypto debit card backing up another crypto debit card. It's convoluted and confusing and incredibly inefficient.

Another problem we have with "decentralized banking" is that these L2 networks, like bitcoin's main blockchain, are no longer "decentralized" in any meaningful way. They can be run by cartels that control a significant chunk of the network's interoperability, and if there is no central authority determining what's a problem fee, the network cartels can charge what they want. Monopolies happen in unregulated markets much more so than they do regulated markets, and we've witnessed this in the continued evolution of bitcoin's mining network as 2-3 companies control a majority of the system. They could decide to act together and raise minimum transaction rates any time they want. There's no way to stop that unless you go back to depending upon either the ineffective "invisible hand of the market," or central authorities. Which defeats the purpose of Bitcoin.

No matter what, we already have "rush hour pricing" in crypto. Perhaps in bitcoin-utopia, during Christmas time, if you pay with bitcoin, the fees skyrocket 10,000% higher due to the network traffic? Same with L2. Also, LN nodes can be configured in such a way as to steer customers through high-priced transaction nodes - again, with no central oversight, decentralized nodes are free to form their own gangs that control certain digital turf. Again, there are reasons all modern societies have governments - these things happened in the past, and crypto bros would realize their need as soon as their crypto utopia materialized and started misbehaving in ways they should have anticipated.

What else happens in a world where bitcoin is the new "money?"

Let's look at one of the most significant factors of economic stimulation: lending.

Why do people take out loans? Let's put aside the fact that the rich do it for tax evasion, and focus on the middle and lower classes. They do it to be able to buy something they otherwise could not afford to buy. And usually these things elevate the status, capability and quality of their lives: obtaining a reliable vehicle, getting a higher quality education, purchasing a home to live in. All of these activities often produce additional equity that improves peoples' social status.

The ability for someone to get a student loan and become a doctor is a huge thing. Institutions that provide such loans allow people to move up the socio-economic ladder.

The same thing with having a vehicle. It makes someone more useful as an employee or enables entrepreneurial opportunities as well as independence.

BUT in a world where the new money is "deflationary" something weird happens: Lending money becomes prohibitively expensive.

If bitcoin continually increases in value due to its demand, ubiquity and most importantly: scarcity, then more people will hoard money than put it back into the economy. The people with plenty of money will at least have a choice of whether to buy something or not. But those who need loans will be in a very bad situation. Interest rates on bitcoin loans will put lending opportunities out of their reach. This means the middle and lower classes will stagnate, unable to afford traditional loans that would otherwise help them up the social ladder.

So far, this crypto utopia isn't looking very fun: transactions are significantly slower and more costly, crime is now legal, a major way to control rogue nations in lieu of physical violence now no longer works, and people who really need loans cannot afford them, so upward mobility among lower classes grinds to a crawl.

Most crypto bros may even be aware of these caveats, but they don't care. Because they anticipate that they will not be part of the lower classes. They assume their "early" bags of bitcoin will now be worth so much, they don't have to suffer like others. They're the new "1%."

Even assuming that happens and we ignore all the even more underprivileged middle and lower classes, there are still problems abound... While crypto gives Mr. Bagholder the "generational wealth" he dreams of, he's also growing up in a world where all the powerful special interests he thought he was escaping from the fiat-world, are not only still there, but they're even more powerful and influential. This is because the wealth disparity in the world of bitcoin is exponentially worse than it is with any other monetary system on the planet. So perhaps instead of 5000 super-powerful oligarchs, you're now down to 30. There's no evidence a smaller number of more powerful people will somehow be more benevolent. Good luck with that.

So what happens in this world as time goes on? It amplifies all the problems with the existing world to an even greater degree. In a deflationary monetary system, the rich get even richer and the poor get poorer.

However, there is one advantage for the poor in this respect: bitcoin's lack of reasonable consumer protections. While everybody talks about how difficult it is to "51% attack the network" to steal crypto, that's not the way it's done. Any pleb who can hoodwink a bitcoin holder one-way-or-another out of their private keys, can instantly and efficiently steal their money. So now crime explodes because the best way the lower classes can now get money is to hit rich people over the head with a hammer and demand their private keys. There's your "redistribution of wealth."

Now let's get to the second, hybrid-bitcoin utopian vision: "Digital Gold" backing stuff. If you know BTC is always going up, then you simply begin to stockpile BTC and not use it. So if nobody wants to spend bitcoin any more, the economy grinds to a halt. We can't have that, so let's re-introduce fiat, and say it's "backed by BTC." So now Bitcoin is a "strategic reserve."

At this point, bitcoin utopia is speed-running the exact same scenario most major countries that had hard-asset-backed-currency ran into: a constant stream of economic calamities resulting from liquidity squeezes and unforeseen market conditions. Bank runs would once again, be in vogue. Situations like pandemics, strikes, earthquakes and other natural events that disrupt the supply chain would cause huge global turmoil without the ability to create inflation -- the government effectively being unable to "borrow" money to maintain the status quo until it gets back upon its feet. You can't borrow what isn't there. And in a deflationary system, it isn't there. We learned this the hard way from history. Crypto bros weren't paying attention in history class.

And ironically, the solution to all of these crypto-utopia-situations-gone-awry, is to basically emulate the existing system it replaced: pile on more and more regulations, rules and oversight, until the economy looks eerily similar to the way it did before the advent of libertarian magic dust.

And getting back to our original Star Wars vs Star Trek analogies... we find that the proponents of a bitcoin utopia are the "Jedi Knights" in the Star Wars universe. They're the exception, not the rule. When one envisions a future where bitcoin is the default store of value, one assumes they have enough of that value to set themselves up, while ignoring how the rest of the world would be hamstrung otherwise. Not unlike Star Wars' world, which looks great from the cockpit of a well-armed starship, and not so much from behind the counter of a coffee shop on Alderaan.. until the captain of the starship clicks on the wrong link in his interstellar e-mail and finds he's just transferred ownership of all his possessions to an anonymous person on Tattooine.

May the force be with you!