BTC miners sold 75% of their rewards past June. Last year, in June 2022, they sold 326% (Bitcoin Sold vs Bitcoin Mined) just as the bear market began

Lets dive a bit into this:

As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, miners make different moves. According to recent data from Luxor Mining, Bitcoin miners sold 75% of their rewards in June. Let's remember the upcoming halving event set for late April 2024. Post-halving, miners will require more efficient equipment to remain competitive. Another factor for the 75% could be miners' concerns about potential price drops, reminiscent of the bear market in 2022 when some miners had to sell their reserves to stay competitive. Interestingly, while 2022 saw miners holding onto their BTC, 2023 has witnessed a more consistent withdrawal pattern, with many miners saving up to 25% of their rewards, possibly in anticipation of a post-halving bull market.

Source: Luxor Mining

Now there's an interesting insight here. See the peak in June 2022? Miners were selling all the BTC they mined, as well as their reserves (Hence the 326%), just after Bitcoin's price dropped from 60k to 30k. Look at the months before, barely any BTC mined sold.

Source: CoinMarketCap BTC Price Chart

It seems that even miners can panic sell. We're not alone. What will happen in the following months? We shall see.

EDIT, for clarification:

How can you sell 326% of your rewards?

When the chart says that miners sold 326% of their rewards (Bitcoin Sold vs Bitcoin Mined) it means that in addition to selling all the Bitcoin they mined during that month, they also sold from their previously accumulated reserves.

Suppose miners mined 100 BTC in June.

- If they sold exactly what they mined, they would have sold 100% of their rewards, which is 100 BTC.

- If they sold 326% of their rewards, they sold 326 BTC.

- This means they sold the 100 BTC they mined in June PLUS an additional 226 BTC from their reserves (previously mined and stored Bitcoin).

The 326% indicates that miners not only sold the newly mined coins but also a significant portion of their stored reserves.

[SERIOUS] Average CTM (cost to mine) $8,389 per Bitcoin

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-miner-riot-posts-mixed-212952963.html

Previously there was concern regarding the significant increase in the average cost to mine a bitcoin once the halving occurred. The idea was that it would be over $90k potentially damaging the bitcoin market. There are obviously many ways to interpret this. However, the point stands that with the halving the average rate will likely double this value to 16-17k. While the significane of this is debatable, to me it goes to show that we are still early until the 5th halving. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin achieves that prices that were hypothesized and insinuated in the whitepaper. I think 2024/2025 will be an excellent year for crypto barring on black swan events, however I expect another exponential spurt in 2027-2030. It feels like this is far away, but it'll come sooner than we think.

What do you think?

Why Hasn't Bitcoin Gone Up Yet? A Beginners Guide to Bitcoin Price Analysis.

ABTRACT (INTRODUCTION)

This post attempts to cover the fundamental concepts of 4-year halvings, supply shock and logarithmic regression theory. These concepts are crucial, especially for beginners in understanding the long-term price fluctuations of Bitcoin.

This educational post is in a bid to help provide some insight to how Bitcoin's price action really works. Not bro-science, not social media influences with orgasmic-face thumbnails, but pure economic theory.

HALVINGS

Bitcoin's bull and bear runs are primarily initiated by 4-year "halvings." See Fig 1. These are events hardcoded into Bitcoin's framework to halve the per-block rewards, effectively limiting supply. They occur roughly every 4 years, as they are dictated by multi-variable block time versus the hard cap 210k block per halving.

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When supply is diminished, with equal demand, the value of that supply will, over the scale of tens of thousands of buyers and sellers, naturally increase until the market is once again at equilibrium. As projected, the next bull run is set to start somewhere mid-2024. That's basic supply and demand applied to Bitcoin.

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Fig 1. A graph showing the total price history of Bitcoin in LOGARITHMIC SCALE. Red vertical timestamps show the time of each network halving. The next expected halving is estimated to be April 17th, 2024.

SUPPLY SHOCK

Markets are not perfect, there is no single person that dictates price, and so it can be subject to human error and phenomena, notable supply-shock. Supply-shock results in short-term speculation (the bull-run), followed by a correction (bear-run), especially as a result of a severe and abrupt supply change, as in the case of Bitcoin.

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Market momentum will carry Bitcoin's price past its natural value as dictated by supply and demand equilibrium, hence the bull market. A price correction will then occur in attempt to cut the market back to its equilibrium. See to Fig 2.

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Fig 2. A graph in LOGARITHMIC SCALE highlighting the bull and bear runs made by the halvings, which are shown as a red vertical line. The log regression function shown as the purple line serves as a rough approximation of Bitcoin's fair value, or estimated market equilibrium.

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LOGARITHMIC REGRESSION

Market profitability will reduce as the market matures. It's the reason why you could've made millions if you invested and sold Bitcoin in the 2010 market cycle, you would have 300x'ed+ compared to 2021's cycle, magnitudes lower at a max profitability of 20x.

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Logarithmic regression plays off this idea, in that Bitcoin tends to travel in a logarithmic function over relative appreciation chart/ logarithmic chart. This happens because it would take exponentially increasing demand to maintain a linear path on a log chart. Obviously, the world would run out of people, money and boating accidents for this to occur, hence the regression relationship. A very similar concept to market volatility too, unsurprisingly.

The market volatility, or how violent the ups and downs are, will always get more stable as Bitcoin's market cap increases. Big weighty things are resistant to change, like in physics, politics, economics and like in crypto.

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Using lower and higher bounds of Bitcoin's price history, one can devise a very, very rough graph in price probability, not what Bitcoin will be, but could possibly be. Such charts demonstrate the near impossibility of what many online media influences stipulate in their orgasmic, wide-eyed thumbnails and reactions.

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Fig 3. A graph of a rough logarithmic regression applied to a logarithmic scale chart of Bitcoin. Obviously, things like inflation, economic situations, world events and disasters can always play a role in price. Take such charts with a fine grain of salt.

TO CONCLUDE

Concepts like halvings, supply shock, market volatility, profitability and logarithms are intrinsic to Bitcoin's price action and how it moves from a long-term year to year basis. Thus, it is vital to understand the fundamentals before delving headfirst into social media trash, hype influences, pump and dumps, and the other vast opportunistic heathen of this planet.

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Take and interpret what you want and will. This isn't a hype post, just ya friendly neighborhood crypto dude. I'll try my best to reply to questions (:

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[Task] photoshop 1 pic

I need a photo from an event photoshopped. Just need lighting adjusted slightly and to look a bit slimmer in the photo lol. I’ll be using it as a business profile pic. Offering $10 paid via bitcoin or PayPal. I attend events monthly and the photo booths provided aren’t always the greatest so if your work is good I’ll have more pics for you to edit here in the near future. Please bid under thread, thank you!

Where can I find historical bitcoin volatility

I am working on finding the correlation between the volatility of bitcoin and specific world events. I’m interested to know where I can find some some type of dataframes or excel documents with that in minute or hour data.

EUgenicists using weather control to start forcing first countries into CBDC ?

Some Context: 1. USD or at least PetroDollar is taking its nosedive. After the impact, what is left of USD ain't gonna be even similar to what we have today. 2. New brainfuck is needed, so globalists ghave chosen next obvious choice: crypto -in centralized form, so that it can be controlled glo0bally from one point. 3. Technical efforts to filter out any other competition (OS and off-the-shelf equipment backdoors etc) have failed to guarrantee full control that would keep various local cryptos and Bitcoin out. 4. Time is running out. Globalists tried staving the impact of by waves ofgovernment bonds sells, which have flopped, especially in EU. So Lagarde/EU has said straight out that EU is to enforce errrm "present" CBDC by Oct, She revealed that in a phone call from Russian prankster, imeprsonating (Z)Elensky, no less:

* [ChristineLagarde,President of the EuropeanCentralBank gets dup€d by Russian comedian/hacker pretending to be Zelensky](https://twitter.com/sophiadahl1/status/1638217811922153472?s=20)
* [Christine Lagarde admits that central banks will lose control of the monetary system unless they move to the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) ](https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1638923336058109954?s=20)

so all "democracies" are: * announcing CBDC under various local brands as disguises: BritCOin, Digital Dollar, Digital EURO etc. * Bank of England assembles 30 experts to design the digital pound * CryptoShekel in CBDC/"Digital EUro" flavor incoming: * Major Australian Banks Are Going Cashless - Forced Acceptance Of CBDCs Next? * they are gradually introducing legislation that is eventually to formally forbid anything but CBDC, but at this time they are pushing physical cash out - simply by denying the user that option at particular points. For now, they are hiding it under decision of particular outlets (ALDI etc), shops, banks etc. * planting the narrative to make cash illegal, often in most ridiculous ways: * Hillary Clinton: ‘It’s Time to BAN Cash To Fight Climate Change’

... all of which is just an uverture to CBDC enforcement. As lagarde has said, EU can't wait much past October, so what is it to do ?

Well, one way might be to wait for some of its part to be in dire need of money injection and since EU is practically bancrupt, only obvious way is to introduce digital "funny money" - CBDC!

Well, one of the most vulnerable points of EU as Italy and chronically bankrupt vassal microstates east of it up to Ukraine and Albania to the south. Remember, COVID-19 has started its EU journey in Italy, where it had significant "help on the ground": * Hug a Chinese tourist event held in Italy shortly before Coronavirus spread around country. If this is state sponsored, it's for sure biowar * During COVID-ITA outbreak, teams of couple dozen "nurses" were sent to "help" from usual vassal suspects (Albania etc). Why would bazzilion times bigger and far more advanced Italy need dozen nurses for help ? COVID OTOH might well used to boost its spread rate.

So this time, we have unusually strong rains in that area, followed by record hailstorms. They are not unusual for this time of year, but their size is - it's just like they, just as COVID, had quite a bit help on the ground: * Northern Italy pelted by ‘out of the ordinary’ golf-ball sized hail as region enters fourth summer heat wave * Weather tracker: new European record set as 19cm hailstone found in Italy

Interestingly enough, people have been reporting on chemical analysis in hailstones showing unusually high content of the stuff that is used to percipitate rain (aluminum compounds etc).

So, now, at the end of Aug, we have another result: highest-ever flood in neighbouring Slovenia:

• Slovenia floods kill at least six in ‘worst natural disaster to ever hit’ the country, says PM

Slovenia, as all "independent" (LOL!) vassal micro-quasi-states has economy in total shit and being almost two orders of magnitude smaller than Italy, almost no real voice in EU.

Flood has caused probably more than €3B in damage and Lagarde's response is... €400M. And since she had to come personally, make all the theatre out of it and personal meetings, it obviously is to come with strings attached.

So, Slovenia is now in convenient, dire need for help, just at the right time for CBDC to be introduced, just like Lagarde has revealed it quite a few months ago. * CryptoShekel in CBDC/"Digital EUro" flavor incoming:

EUgenicists do everything stepwise. Slovenia is just a first step/anchor for the CBDC, before it starts intruding into its neighbours. They are always used as a testing ground for the stuff that is to be R&D-ed before it's applied elsewhere. 🙄

Financial prepping with Bitcoin

I’m curious this subs thoughts on the financial implications of storing Bitcoin for a SHTF event. I’ve seen people discuss holding other hard assets such as lower value silver coins and higher value gold coins, but IMHO, it also makes sense to hold at least some Bitcoin. Similar to small amounts of gold or silver held at home safely, Bitcoin is easy to self custody on a so called hardware wallet, it doesn’t have to be held on a centralized exchange (such as Coinbase) Assuming you have an internet connection, you’ll be able to pay for things in Bitcoin, and “carry” a potentially significant amount of value with you, which would be challenging with a large amount of gold or silver.

Bitcoin is volatile, but many believe the price will be higher “tomorrow” than today. And importantly, there are only 21 million total coins, compared to gold which continues to grow at 2% per year due to ongoing mining.