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Only two weeks out now…

From Kraken -

We’re about two weeks out from the next Bitcoin halving, and you might be wondering, "How will it affect crypto and the bitcoins I hold?" It's a great question. Our answer: Relax — the halving won't directly impact any of your existing bitcoin holdings.

The halving simply reduces the reward that miners receive for mining blocks by 50%.

We did a little digging around in the numbers, and the data suggests it has taken around 406* days for prices to peak after a halving.

Mega Important Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. While many believe halvings drive these rallies, other factors are at play and future outcomes remain uncertain. Bitcoin halvings Halving #1 - November 2012 While scientists were busy finding the Higgs-Boson particle at CERN, by November 2012 Bitcoin was beginning to find its feet in the financial jungle. With 11 million bitcoins in circulation, the first halving cut the block reward for miners from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

Exactly one year later (November 28, 2013), bitcoin was up 7,431%. Halving #2 - July 2016 As the Pokémon GO craze began sweeping the world, by July 2016 Bitcoin was gaining broader traction as a mainstream financial tool. The second halving of block rewards from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC was met with increased anticipation.

After the event, prices surged again. By July 9, 2017, exactly one year after this halving, prices had increased by 279%. Halving #3 - May 2020 Bitcoin’s third halving coincided with the global pandemic, making it a unique test for the leading cryptocurrency. With block rewards cut to 6.25 BTC, many were wondering if prices would continue the historic post-halving trend.

By May 11, 2021—exactly one year after this halving—bitcoin’s price had increased by 539%, showcasing its resilience even during turbulent economic times.

So there you have it, Bitcoin halvings in a nutshell. In the next (and final) edition of this series, we'll explore what happens when all the bitcoins are mined and mining rewards finish. Eek! (But don't worry, this isn’t expected to happen until 2140).

So, what do you all think? Is this Bull run going to be exactly 12 months to peak as well?🤔

Received this email sometime ago.

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Exploring the Rise of Crypto in Online Gambling and Sports Betting

In recent years, the intersection of cryptocurrency and online gambling has sparked significant interest and debate. Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, have gained traction as viable alternatives to traditional fiat currencies in various industries. One sector where this adoption is particularly noteworthy is in online gambling and sports betting. It’s not an exaggeration to say that crypto in online gambling is reshaping the industry, considering that crypto casinos like Stake make billions of dollars in revenue a year.

The emergence of crypto in online gambling creates both opportunities and challenges for players and operators alike. This article dives into those opportunities and challenges, exploring how the integration of crypto is transforming the way players engage with online gambling platforms and the implications for the industry as a whole.

The emergence of crypto in online gambling

Crypto’s journey into the realm of online gambling and sports betting can be traced back to the early 2010s when Bitcoin started gaining prominence. SatoshiDice, aptly named after the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, launched in 2012 and is considered the first online gambling platform to accept cryptocurrency.

Since then, some estimates have pegged the size of the crypto gambling market to a whopping $250 million USD – and that figure is steadily growing. For many iGaming operators, that figure is enough to consider integrating crypto into their traditional iGaming platforms.

But why?

Why are more and more players choosing to wager in cryptocurrency rather than fiat currency?

Benefits of crypto in online gambling for players

For players, using cryptocurrencies in online gambling offers several advantages. These include faster transactions, lower fees, enhanced security, convenience of web3 wallet integrations, and greater control over funds. Cryptocurrency transactions are processed almost instantly, allowing players to deposit and withdraw funds quickly compared to traditional banking methods, which may involve lengthy processing times.

Trust in online casino and sportsbook operators is also something that crypto can solve for. On-chain wagering, a revolutionary feature in the iGaming space being pioneered by Lion Gaming, completely eliminates the need for trust in an operator. With on-chain wagering, a player’s bet is recorded and publicly visible on the blockchain. Using smart contracts, payouts are automatically assured for the player in the event of a win, completely eliminating the need to believe that an operator will pay a player out.

While players should always choose operators with a gambling licence from a reputable jurisdiction, as those licences typically indicate a trustworthy operator, on-chain betting adds an extra layer of security for the savvy crypto player. Learn more about the on-chain wagering features available in Lion gaming’s Fer0x Crypto Casino software and Fer0x Crypto Sportsbook software to see why on-chain betting will continue to become more important for the future of iGaming.

Benefits of crypto payments for operators

From the perspective of online casino and sportsbook operators, integrating cryptocurrencies can offer numerous benefits. By accepting cryptocurrencies as payment, operators can attract a broader audience of players who prefer using digital currencies for online transactions. This expanded customer base can lead to increased engagement and revenue for the platform.

Furthermore, cryptocurrencies facilitate seamless international transactions, eliminating the need for currency conversions and reducing transaction fees associated with traditional banking methods. This streamlines the payment process for both operators and players, enhancing the overall user experience.

Moreover, as mentioned in the previous section, leveraging blockchain technology and on-chain betting can enable operators to enhance transparency and trust within the gaming ecosystem. Blockchain-based sportsbook and online casinos can provide immutable records of transactions, ensuring fairness and integrity in gaming outcomes. This can help operators build credibility and foster long-term relationships with players.

Challenges and regulatory considerations

Despite the benefits associated with cryptocurrency adoption in online gambling, there are also challenges and regulatory considerations that need to be addressed. One of the primary concerns is the volatility of cryptocurrency prices, which can affect the value of player’s winnings and operators’ revenues. To mitigate this risk, some online casino providers offer solutions such as instant conversion to stablecoins or fiat currencies.

Regulatory uncertainty is another significant challenge facing the cryptocurrency gambling industry. While some jurisdictions have embraced cryptocurrencies and established clear regulatory frameworks, others have adopted a more cautious approach or outright banned their use in online gambling. Navigating these regulatory complexities requires careful compliance measures and collaboration between stakeholders. The Ultimate iGaming Operator Finance Playbook includes a section on regulatory considerations and compliance for all iGaming operators interested in learning more about the topic.

The future of crypto in online gambling

Despite the challenges and regulatory hurdles, the integration of crypto in online gambling and sports betting is likely to continue growing in the foreseeable future. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream and accepted as legitimate forms of payment, the industry can expect to see further innovation and adoption.

Technological advancements such as web3 wallet integrations and on-chain sportsbook software have the potential to revolutionize the online gambling experience, offering transparency, fairness, and trustworthiness to players.

Now that you know the rise of cryptocurrency adoption in online gambling and sports betting represents a paradigm shift in the iGaming industry, it’s time to adapt for the future. While challenges remain, the benefits of using crypto for online gambling are undeniable, and the trend is poised to reshape the landscape of online gaming in the years to come. Contact Lion Gaming today to learn how we are pioneering the future of the iGaming industry with the Fer0x Engine, and how we can help you start a crypto casino or sportsbook that’s engineered for success.

"Back Testing" BITU - New ProShares 2x Daily Leveraged BTC ETF

So, I was playing around with back testing BITU, the new ProShares Bitcoin ETF that is daily leveraged 2x (similar to SSO, QLD, etc) and the results are shockingly spectacular.

In 2020, BTC closed at $8,746 the day of the halving. The daily closing peak of the cycle came on November 8th, 2021, when BTC closed at $67,582, representing a gain of 673.09% from the closing price on the halving date. However, when daily leveraged at 2x, it reaches a closing price on November 8th, 2021 of $236,945.11, representing a gain of 2,610.47%, which you may note is nearly 4x the actual gain by BTC. Note that you actually get a greater gain with the 2x leveraged version with the April 2021 peak, when it reached over $306,000 for an even larger gain.

2021 was somewhat of a weird cycle top given the summer lull and the double top formation, so I also looked back at the prior cycle. Here, the halving occurred on July 9th, 2016 with a closing price of $657.61. For this cycle, it reached its top closing price on December 16th, 2017, with a price of $19,650.01, an increase of 2,888.09%, a hefty return in its own right. However, if you leverage this daily to 2x, it reaches a peak of $247,655.90, a gain of 37,560%, which is over a 10x of what you would've gotten with the underlying BTC.

This all seems so crazy and too good to be true, and it probably is. It is true that with crypto, there is always a chance of a black swan type event that tanks BTC 40%, and thus the 2x one would plunge 80%, for example. And in both of the above examples, you would want to sell before the onset of the bear market as it hits hard, though it's not as bad as I would've expected. Indeed, if you held a 2x BTC from the 2015 halving through now, you'd still be up on just 1x BTC, with an insane level of volatility along the way.

Thoughts, fellow degens? Talk me off the ledge from actually allocating some of my capital towards this? A lot of "normal" folks would suggest these funds can't be held long-term, but some of us know they can be in some situations, and crypto bull markets seem like potentially one of those cases. However, the issue with crypto is always the lack of historical context. With so little history behind it, assuming this cycle will be the same as the ones of the past might be foolhardy.

I'd thought volatility decay would make this asset unworkable long-term, but if anything the volatility seems to just increase the returns, even though it would be a tough ride to hold on during.

EDIT: To be clear, I do understand this is a degen, high-risk strategy that can truly ruin your portfolio. I was just illustrating how it seemingly would've worked in the past. Whether that will work this cycle is anyone's guess. It seems like a Lambos or Food Stamps type strategy.

Halving - spike then dip? Or dip and eventual new high?

Just starting my Bitcoin learning. Trying to understand hopeful/expected events with the upcoming halving but getting a bit lost in info ATM. With the halving, are people expecting a spike with the halving, or a dip with eventual recovery to a new high? I'm reading about a predicted new high approx 6 months after halving, but also reading about a possible slide with the halving. Trying to understand if I should be buying before halving, just after, or? I appreciate any answers.