05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
Since the 15-DEC-2018 low, the Bitcoin markets have rebounded with a 75% gain into Easter 2019 —quite a resurrection from the 2018 bear market which saw an 85% decline in value. With price action unfolding in impulsive waves thus far, it is becoming increasingly apparent to suggest a bull market is underway.
A simple Eggiott Wave model would propose a five wave structure, consisting of three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave 1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave 2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave 3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave 4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave 5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years.
Timewise, the first two bull markets (Waves 1 and 3) elapsed 1142 days on average; and, the first two bear markets (Waves 2 and 4) elapsed 395 days on average. Bull markets have lasted almost three times longer than bear markets. Thus, an intuitive linear projection would propose the current third and final bull market (Wave 5) to complete by the year 2022 or earlier. However, since the current fifth and final Eggiott Wave is by typical definition only required to revisit or just exceed the high of the third wave, it may suggest the current bull market may be comparatively contracted in price and time.
The first Bitcoin halving occurred on 28-NOV-2012, approx midway through the first bull market. The second Bitcoin halving occurred on 09-JUL-2016, approx midway through the second bull market. The third Bitcoin halving is tentatively scheduled for 21-MAY-2020, perhaps midway through the third and final bull market or at the end?
A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth and final wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127 calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
Projected from the 15-DEC-2018 low, the aforementioned conservative price targets are a 630% to 1020% gain, or 825% on average. The average gain alone would be sufficient enough to qualify the current fifth and final PRIMARY[5] wave which would exceed the 2017 high of the third PRIMARY[3] wave, albeit marginally.
However, for the popular altcoins like LTC and ETH, an 825% gain projected from their 2018 lows would only retrace half of their respective bear markets. Even a 1000% gain in LTC and ETH would fail to match their 2017 all-time highs. Furthermore, there are altcoins such as LTC where the 2018 bear market low overlapped the high of their respective 2013 bull markets highs. Such a price overlap negates an impulsive wave structure, and thus would suggest a corrective wave structure as follows (indicative of price/structure, not time):
The short to medium term wave structure of Bitcoin thus far appears to be impulsively advancing from the orthodox 06-FEB-2019 bear market low, with maximum pullbacks at 11% on average. Four waves seem to have completed which have been classified as MINUTE degree —waves of such degree elapse from a few days to a week:
24-FEB: MINUTE[i] 27-FEB: MINUTE[ii] 10-APR: MINUTE[iii] 15-APR: MINUTE[iv]
The third MINUTE degree wave which completed on 10-APR, itself subdivided into five smaller impulsive waves classified as MINUETTE degree waves. A decline below the low of 15-APR would suggest MINUTE[iv] pullback is still in progress which ought to find support at the low of 04-APR. Otherwise however, it appears the final MINUTE[v] degree wave appears to be currently underway. Once MINUTE[v] completes, the first MINOR degree wave of the bull market will have completed, and the first largest pullback of the bull market will commence —perhaps an approx 30% decline. At this point in time, price will be required to decline to the 24-FEB high to terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market. The degree of wave labeling is currently tentative and subject to revision (i.e. may be either upgraded or downgraded in degree); however, the waves remain fixed.
BITSTAMP Support Zones: 5198, 4306, 3322, 2713, 2221 BITSTAMP Resistance Zones: 5898, 6390, 6882/7026, 7491
Charts are indicative of price/structure, not time.
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