Thursday, July 1, 2021

Estimation of fractional reserves on exchanges

The private nature of XMR wallets (transfers) provides opportunity for every XMR exchange (service) to be fractionally reserved. No one can see it, no one can easy prove it. Let's try to make some estimate as it all might be. Let's take Coinbase and bitcoin as models. (Numbers are rounded+averaged.)

total lying on Coinbase: 1M BTC

24h trading volume: 15k BTC (about 1.5% of all their BTC)

24h average daily deposits are about same as daily withdrawals: 15k BTC

Coinbase can be theoretically operated without any bitcoins in treasury. (When user makes a withdrawal request and there are not enough coins, it only be a moment when someone makes a deposit.)

If they want to work nice and smoothly and be prepared for larger atypical withdrawals or some kind of bank run (2+ weeks until panic disappears), they need to have up to 25% of all their Bitcoins (250k).

XMR Kraken 24h trading volume is about 15k and it never had any big problems with withdrawals - so it definitely has the right XMR fractional reserve for its about 1M lying on exchange (by estimation according to 24h trading volume).

XMR Binance 24h trading volume is near to 200k XMR and it has sometimes troubles with withdrawals, so it definitely has not the right fractional reserve for its more than 10M lying on exchange (by estimation according to 24h trading volume).

Fractional reserved exchanges can be fun to watch if some big event happens (hacker ransom in XMR, Coinbase Monero listing, Satoshi Nakamoto wants private money, ... ). If nothing special happens, reserves can be slowly replenished (Best to do it when the price is down).

Feel free to check and correct me. This post will be edited (upgraded) - based on your fine comments.


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