Allow me to first say this; despite the holders of this token not being the most financially educated group of people on the blockchain, the way this token moves is extremely similar to how most well-recognized financial instruments move.
Talking specifically about cumrockets, I think it's safe to say that even after a day of reading the posts on this subreddit, the sentiment surrounding this token is very clearly negative. So lets first ask ourselves why that is, and then we can talk about why it's one of the most bullish and optimistic things that can happen to the token.
So first, its critical to understand that while supply and demand is what moves the price of the token, if you look one step deeper, narrative is very clearly what moves supply and demand. When the narrative is overwhelmingly positive, the holders don't want to sell their tokens and the buyers can't get enough of them. The price rises as though the supply is nonexistent. This is exactly what we saw in the days before the NFT marketplace was released.
The narrative was this: "This marketplace is going to create a new paradigm of demand and the price of the token is going to 100x". You guys were right in that it would create demand, but you were wrong in assuming it wouldn't be predominantly from the excitement of our own community. You were also wrong in assuming that the demand would hold.
I encourage you all to look up the popular saying about financial markets that is "Buy the rumor, sell the news." It is exactly what happened after the NFT marketplace launch. The key takeaway from doing so is that while the assets we're trading are becoming more technologically advanced, the human psychology that drives price movement is seemingly unchanged.
So narrative caused the price to spike right before the marketplace release, what happened afterwards? Did the narrative change? The answer to that is so clearly YES. Just look at the reddit posts before and after the marketplace dropped; this is considering the fact that the marketplace actually worked pretty damn well for a fresh release! The reason the narrative flipped so negatively is because nothing happened. There was this huge event that everyone was talking about for months, and when it finally came time to be realized, what happened was... well, nothing. The price didn't 100x, I bet most of you didn't even consider buying something on the marketplace. BUT THAT'S OKAY. I'll be honest, I didn't either, but in the grand scheme of things, that really doesn't matter.
What matters is where we are now. Knowing that a change in narrative is what moves the price, you should be as ecstatic as I am that everyone is so goddamn pessimistic about the future of the token. It means that the sentiment can change positively way more than it can change negatively.
Now before you jump in the comments and tell me how bullish you are and that you love buying more tokens at this relatively low price, I will concede that it may be the case that the reason we see so many negative posts is because the people who are scared are louder than the people who are calm. In fact, I would be surprised if that wasn't the case, but there are undoubtedly more negative people now than there were around 6 months ago. They're the ones who are willing to sell.
And who can blame them? The price of CR shot up past 20 cents, and here we are watching it nearly fall below a single cent? Of course its justifiable for someone unfamiliar with the crypto space to think that the hype is gone, the token is dead, and their money isn't coming back. But lets take a look at some of the biggest drawdowns of other cryptos for comparison:
Bitcoin (BTC): The maximum drawdown since January 2010 for the Bitcoin USD is 83.40%, recorded on Dec 14, 2018. It took 716 trading sessions for the portfolio to recover.
Ethereum (ETH): The maximum drawdown since January 2010 for the Ethereum USD is 93.96%, recorded on Dec 13, 2018. It took 781 trading sessions for the portfolio to recover.
Cardano (ADA): The maximum drawdown since January 2010 for the Cardano USD is 97.85%, recorded on Mar 11, 2020. It took 345 trading sessions for the portfolio to recover.
And the thing is, these drawdowns were ALL COMPLETELY CORRECTED in the following years as each of these cryptos (as I hope you know) smashed through their previous all time highs. Cardano lost 98% of its value... it did a 1/50x and recovered beautifully.
This isn't unique to just cryptos either, watch this video about Bezos talking about how amazon stock performed during the 2000 dot com bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwskqpf0E6Y&ab_channel=InvestorsArchive
Amazon stock went from $113 to $6 and is sitting at $3240. Price is not indicative of future performance. Let me say that again. Price is NOT indicative of future performance. We have to be focused on the accomplishments of the marketing and development teams.
If you're interested, you should also look up Warren Buffett (one of if not the greatest investor in the world) talking about "Buying when there's blood in the streets" and being "Greedy when others are fearful" because this is not a new psychological/financial phenomenon.
You guys are gauging the success of the development team by price movement, and not by what is actually being done and what is actually being planned. What's true is this; the development team has not slowed down, they will not slow down, they own a fuckton of cumrockets, and they have every incentive in the world to make sure that this token succeeds and explodes.
No, they're not going to rug you for $300,000; volume is so low that they can't even sell all of what they have without crushing the price; the takeaway from this is that they cant and wont try to do that. The risk profile of this token is extremely skewed in our favor as it is in theirs.
In the end, the current narrative tells the same story that the risk profile of the token does; we have one cent to lose, and hundreds to gain. Narrative is going to change; it's inevitable and it always has in the past.
So keep selling, I honestly, sincerely, do not care.
I'm holding, and what I'm holding will very likely reach an all time high and go far beyond even that.
"The hardest part of investing is doing nothing."
No comments:
Post a Comment