Making Sense Of Current Market Situation: A Critical Test Awaits

In this analysis, we're going to focus mainly on Bitcoin-USD valuation, as that provides a pretty good picture of how well the overall crypto market is doing.

For some context, Bull Market Support Band(BMSB) is a Bollinger band consisting of 21w EMA and 20w SMA. It's an important metric, and it gives us some perspective on where Bitcoin's price is, and where it's heading. In the past, whenever the price of bitcoin held support at the BMSB, we have never gone below that level(except once), and secondly we have seen the market rally after such an event. But on the flip side, if the price goes below the BMSB, the market plummets. Here's an example:

BTC USDT | Binance | 2021-22

Here's another example. When bitcoin held support at $10,000, at the BMSB, we a saw massive bull run in the q4-2020, and that continued in early 2021.

BTC USDT | Binance | 2020-21

It's important to note that the main contributor to this bull run was the bitcoin halving in May-2020. But still, it's crucial to analyze how all this manifests itself on the price chart, and how the patterns are co-related with such events(i.e., bitcoin halving) and price movements. This helps us to make reasonable predictions when the events or patterns play out on the charts. And that's exactly what we're going to do next.

So let's see what the current price chart looks like:

BTC USDT | Binance | 2021-present

So what happens next heavily depends on if Bitcoin holds the support at BMSB. If it does, it's more likely than not that we will see a rally, potentially even beyond $69k. But if the price falls below the BMSB, it's more likely than not that we see a bear market for the next few months. Well, of course, none of us wants that to happen, but it's important to keep that possibility in mind and plan accordingly.

Now, here's another optimistic sign, the golden cross between the 21w EMA and 20w SMA.

BTC USDT | Binance | Potential Golden Cross Formation

Even though the price is falling, we can see a potential golden cross forming between the two moving averages. This does make it more likely that we hold support at $43-$40k, but only time will tell what happens next.

TLDR: If bitcoin holds support at BMSB($43-40k), then we moon. Else, no moon.

PS: If you're one of the people whose long position was liquidated in today's 4% dip, consider yourself lucky. You have just learnt an incredibly important lesson: thou shalt not leverage. Not in crypto, not in stocks, not anywhere. Look at today's small dip as a small tuition fee to learn this lesson.